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Risk Management

Sandwiches and LolliesRemember to not only keep an eye on the chart above, but also on the related BTC chart. Money Man has been, as you know, watching ETH move compared to BTC and realized that we are waiting for a correction that would see ETH not fully hitting targets. This got him thinking of how, think it was Rockefeller - please correct me, said that he loves selling before others do. Leaving money on the table is not that bad an idea. Basically, what he was doing was only eating the sandwich’s filling and leaving the bread for others to squabble about. Now probably had positions so big that he had to scale in and out. Both ETH and BTC has offered lolly trades lately. Ones where traders could ‘eat the whole thing’ (bar a couple of wicks especially on ETH). This also made me think of nagihatoum (a trader on here) who has a quote by Mark Twain / The Big Short on his status bar: “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so”. Excuse the metaphor but insisting on eating lollies and not only the filling in the sandwich, if you go trade by trade and not scaling in, could get you into trouble. The reason for Money Man bringing this up is because he sees a bit of a trend on how people interact with his ideas thread. It has become clear that most viewers are solely focused on the one analysis and so not bother to do due diligence and look at previous ones. There are a select few who do look at previous analysis, leaving their footprints with comments on ‘old analysis’ as well. Money Man likes likes, comments and follows as much as the next guy, but that is not why he brings it up – he can clearly see what most traders are focused on – the next trade and a lolly at that. All or nothing. Please read “On Edge” if you are not sure what he is trying to do. The related BTC post (linked below) is related to his ideas on what to do if you end up in a storm and need to steady the boat. Think about your style of trading. There are no ‘correct answers’. Do you want to pre-empt the decisions of the market and trade within patterns; do you prefer confirmations and breakouts; etc. Conclusion: ETH tends to end up at targets once BTC has settled and decisive actions on BTC causes fear and greed on the ETH chart. Look at previous analysis and see how ETH and BTC interact. Do not simply look at somebody else’s analysis and trade on the lines they drew – that will not develop your trading. Very important to me: Please like if you appreciate the effort, please comment to develop this further and Please follow if you think this might go somewhere that you would like to know about.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Rule72
7
Keep Calm and Carry OnKeep an eye on the chart above. Again, the planned thread of ed posts are interrupted by an idea that is more pressing. See it as a bit of relevant escapism if you will. Not that Money Man is a guru, but he has been asked many times by fellow traders how to get out of a tight spot they were finding themselves in. Now we all know that giving financial advice, especially for a character without official identification, is not encouraged. There is a reason for this that we will touch on later. Reading his previous ed posts should give a fairly comprehensive idea as to how traders end up in these situations. But ‘bringing it back here’, the first time Money Man was asked such a question was, I think in 2017 (he did not exist then in this form, but I am having him earn his keep). It was something like a listing on Coinbase of some cryptos that caused a serious rally in price. Followed by a steep correction. The trader frantically wanted to know if s/he should bail or stick in it. Once a trader starts asking, “what should I do?” or desperately looking for somebody to tell them where the price is definitely going next, the trader has lost control as price has gone outside of his tolerance. Money Man foolishly advised the trader that the price would go to the level the exuberance started from. He was ridiculed straight away as trying to be a guru. Price luckily did return to that level and he was hailed as a guru. What was foolish about that advice then? The problem with it was that it was one trader, publicly on an exchange chat, telling another exactly how to trade. Money Man has evolved since those days and hopefully grown wiser. He came to realize that his answer then could have been much better. For one, he offered his take as a solution to somebody else’s problem. It was done in arrogance, thinking he knew the unknown with inevitability. Putting himself at risk of causing harm to somebody else through maybe understanding the problem but not knowing the person having the problem and what their goals were, or what their tolerances were. Also, why did the trader ask the question? Because they were outside of their comfort zone / tolerance and could not get to clear thinking. It was not good for anybody to offer such a specific answer, even though it worked out. By doing that he chipped away at that trader’s sense of competence and confidence. Getting to know how valuable your sense of self is, should get you to realize how important it is to stay humble, for your own sake and the sake of others. People are vulnerable when their emotions take over and prevent them from thinking clearly – why there is a legal attempt to prevent possible charlatans from getting control of the mind of others when vulnerable (more on vulnerability and emotions in the PS). They start to look outside themselves for answers and neglect what they already have. Here lies the kicker: you have to plan and trade yourself out of the situation. You are capable. Your emotions incapacitate you, so get rid of them. How? Money Man advises that you take the chart and look at decision levels, patterns, trends, or whatever your trading is based on (if it is simply based on hunches – you are in serious trouble). Take your calculator, work out what all the eventualities would mean and decide what is within your tolerance. Put your orders in (not market, but limit orders and conditional orders. How many times have you already felt negative emotions about market orders?). Now you have built your acceptance into the eventualities. Put alerts on (Trading View has great alerts), to reassure yourself that the sky will not fall without you knowing and then walk away for a set amount of time. Go do what will get your mind away and quill your emotions and make you feel good about yourself. Indulge in a little escapism. When you get back to the screen again, do the same as above until you feel back in control. Accept whatever happens. Accept that you will never be 100% right, but you steadied the ship yourself. Through this you will retain your confidence, not be vulnerable, and learn things which are worth the money (possibly lost) paid to learn. Conclusion: Prevent yourself from losing control in the first place – have a read of previous ed posts to see Money Man’s ideas on this. Make sure that you know your tolerance and build it into your trades. Be kind to yourself, you are human. All traders end up finding themselves trading in discomfort every so often, so figure out what makes it more comfortable for yourself. Very important to me: Please leave a like if you appreciate the effort, please leave a comment to develop this further and Please follow if you think this thread is leading somewhere that you would like to know about. PS We all know advertising is built on playing on your emotions. What a successful industry that is? It targets your vulnerabilities – your emotions. Fear, greed, lust, etc, etc are well known negative emotions and mindsets, but there are positive emotions too: empathy, respect, humility, etc. These are what make humanity collectively stronger. They are not self-centred but build community. They build you up when you build others up. Help me here, but I think they all could be described as wisdom (a hard word to use when talking about trading as it requires a rewiring of the mind and sounds ‘guru-ish’). Trading is not a zero-sum game, nor is life a competition. Doing it well is the goal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Rule72
11
EURNZD Trade Recap, Analysis, Management Hi everyone: In this quick educational video, I will go over my 2 trades in EURNZD short. What was my analysis, management and thoughts on this bearish run. I will always start my analysis from the HTF, looking at what the price action is telling me will give me a better edge to enter higher probability setups. I want the HTF to be clear on the bias that I have on the direction. Then, using multi-time frame analysis, looking at what the LTF is telling you. Is it showing you the same price action like the HTF bias ? Wait for the market to give you the confirmation, i.e. continuation corrections, reversal price action structure, LTF impulses...etc that will give you the confidence to enter a trade. Manage the trade accordingly, move the SL to BE in profits depending on the strategies and style. Don't get emotional about the result of the trade, rather if you follow your plan, and you made the decision based on what the market and price action is telling you . Then, repeat consistently for every month, year. :) Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
6
Risk management helps with many psychological issues in tradingLet’s also talk about another so very important, and often undervalued part of risk management. Risk management really does help me to stay emotionally stable during trading. Just think about it: If I place a trade with a 30% risk and I lose it, it will hurt so much, and it will allow my negative sides, my revenge nature to come out and start dominating. I will be stressed, I will not sleep well if this trade will stay overnight. And even if I win, I will be emotionally and mentally tired, I will most likely not be able to continue trading in a normal state of my mind and emotion. The next thing is not so obvious, but if you have bad and not consistent risk management, you will NOT TRUST YOURSELF. Can you imagine how destructive it is on a subconscious level, how much stress it causes? You start your trading day and deep inside you know you can do many bad things with your account because you know how often you just follow an impulsive behavior, and how often you revenge trade. You know it can be so bad you can actually blow your account in 1 day, as it happened before. Even if you made a self promise to trade according to your plan. And on the contrary, what happens if I regularly, consistently risk 0.25-1% of an account. Many GOOD things will happen, both obvious and not so obvious. First of all, after entering a trade, I will most likely be able to stay relatively calm - I know if I lose, I’ll lose only 0.25-1%. I know I can trust myself and I will not move or remove my stop loss. I'm protected. It will help me to be pleasantly curious about how my trade will develop. If it goes my way, I will be naturally glad it was good, but I will not fall into euphoria and become over-excited, because I risked only 1% and my gain will be 1-2% only. That's very nice of course, but not too much to bring me to a state of euphoria. If it goes against me, I will allow it to do so and hit my SL. And after it does so, I will then realize that it’s totally fine to lose a trade. I can lose even 10 of them in a row, and I will still have 90% of my account ready to trade the next day, next week, next month, and next year. I believe good risk management lets you feel you DO control at least something in your trading, you will feel you can allow yourself to be mistaken about the trades you take. That's why I think we should not concentrate on the ways of eliminating overtrading, stress during trading, emotional trading, fear, and so on. Instead, we should focus on good risk management. I will post more about practical ways of improving risk management.
UEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
How much to risk per trade? Returns and drawdowns.Between 1990 and June 2000 the median hedge fund (there are not that many that started in 1990) had an annual return of 16.3% and max drawdown of 28.5% according to MORGAN STANLEY. Keep in mind the 2/20 destroys profits. (16.3%*1.25)+2% =  22.4%, and 28.5-2 = 26.5%. So what the median fund actually did I I did not mess it up was get 22.4% return a year and a max drawdown of 26.5%. Of course that drawdown is the worst over a 10 year period. The S&P 500 has an annual return of 17.2% and max drawdown of 15.4%. What is interesting is to look at the details, for example the few specialist credit between 90 and 00. The smallest return one had this to show: 11.5% annual, -4.9% max down. The biggest return one had this to show: 17.4% annual, -19.4% max down. More returns but with much more drawdown. Here is the paper: www.morganstanley.com A portfolio of hedge funds, since they're not all completely correlated, would do much better than the S&P500 in particular on the drawdown side. Renaissance says their medaillon fund uses an average of 12.5 leverage and takes 8000 trades at the same time 4000 short & 4000 long to reduce risk even more. If this is true it means going in each position with 0,15% of their account. Not sure how far their stop is but has to be less than 10% of a share price, this means a risk of 0.015% per trade at most, now since there are 8000 at the same time it would be 8000 times more than this, but since there are shorts and longs it sorts of evens out and who know what their real risk is? All we know is it is very small that's for sure. But leverage costs money, and what RenTec did was since their risk was so small and they do a ton of volume, they partnered with banks that offer them extremely cheap leverage. And then they averaged 66% a year in the past 30 years, with a fund capped at 10 billion. The secret is diversification, it reduces dramatically risk which allows for better returns. But we have to come up with this diversification, not easy to find another good place to invest in, another good uncorrelated strategy. And when we find those additional sources, we are not RenTec we have to pay a big price for leverage so we cannot just scale it hard. Certain "strategies" will help reduce risk but they also cap returns much and leverage is not free so it might not be worth it depending on the person. I just want to take a look at a few non-managed "low fee" "safe" no brain funds. Examples for the 10-year period ending January 31, 2017: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (MUTF:VASGX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 47.6% and annual return of 4.7%. UBS Global Allocation Fund (MUTF:BPGLX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 48.7% and annual return of 2.6%. This fund has the rather unappetizing combination of low return and a large Maximum Drawdown. LoL this is so bad. And all the grandpas are loving it, they think they found the holy grail and pat each other on the back. Add to this the fact that most people withdraw at the worse time... Over the same 10 years period the S&P500, returned an annualized 7.024% dividends reinvested (4.8% otherwise) with a max drawdown of 57.8% From 2000 to 2020 (september) it had annualized returns of 6.23%. From 1871 to 2019 it returned about 9% (dividend reinvested) - 6.8% if we adjust for inflation, with a max drawdown of Adolf Hitler & Auschwitz the ultimate price. So we're about in the average with 6%. Growth is slowing down (demographics, tech limits, earth limits...) so we will probably average less than 6% in the future. From 2007 to 2017 the top strategic DIY portfolio recipes had returns of ~typically 11% with max drawdowns of also about 11%. Ray Dalio pure alpha 2 has returned 11.5% / yr in the last 20 years and max drawdown I'm not sure I think it was 8% recently and much less before that. Those numbers are hard to find seriously... But well we get an idea of how far it can get pushed. An article from 2017: "Investors earned an average of 4.67% on mutual funds over the last 20 years (Source: www.creditdonkey.com)" of course there is no mention of drawdown because who cares am I right? Mutual funds are not for the best & brightest of investors. Big risk is not a magic trick. "Big risk" does not mean "big return but with big risk". It means NO returns. It means losing with a winning strategy 😂.
Education
by MrRenev
1
5 rules that made Warren Buffett so rich by James AltucherI posted an idea about the Myth of Warren Buffett Buy & Hold a while ago. Here is a general description of how he became so rich by James Altucher. James Altucher is a wall street investor with a lot of hair. You might know him from recently saying New York was dead forever on television, and some actor insulted him on tv because of this. You might also know him from his books and articles, including one of my favorite articles which is him ranting on daytrading explaining why it is so distasteful. He used to be a day trader in the 90s when it was in its early days and made some money but obviously far less than just holding the NDX that went up over 2000%, and he hated it. And finally most people on tradingview from before the 2020 new wave of investors probably know him from defending Bitcoin and selling a "trading masterclass" to crypto "investors". He wrote a book (or maybe more than 1?) about Buffett, articles, and in particular a complete article with the 5 "rules"/"secrets" I described, in a Quora answer to the question "How did Warren Buffett become so rich?". The answer is of course much more complete than the summary I wrote up. Warren Buffett obviously has some skill, he outperformed the market even early on before he was famous and got great deals, he has found and held onto great winners and almost always eliminated the losers (Berkshire was his greatest mistake) but it is interesting to see how saint grandpa aw-shucks and his folk wisdom actually rips the competition to pieces. "Diversification is for idiots" coming from a guy that took thousands of trades and is always on the lookout for an opportunity to make easy money. He says he could be making 50% a year easily on a small account. From these penny stocks selling at BELOW liquidation price? We know what companies he bought, he never just gambled it all on 1. Just bet on several decent ones, get rid of the losers and keep the one that continues its trend up. A quote by Warren Buffett "I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire's tax rate. For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit." Also makes him look kind and caring to the population. There is a good reason big globalist businesses and rich people are all pro socialism, high taxes, and lockdown. In California I remember the government banning small food trucks in favor of big brick and mortar chains, for some BS reason as always. They also shot independent contractors in the leg forcing them to be wageslaves. High taxes keep the poor people down at the bottom, while a large portion of the poor people - those with the abstraction capacities of a potato - cheer 😑, so the rich even look like they are kind and caring. A bucket of crabs surrounded with giant rich people laughing and dipping crab pinchers in sauce while pushing the crabs about to escape at the bottom saying it's for their own good... High taxes, socialism, lockdown and so on are good for business not just because they keep the unwashed masses at the bottom. Amazon made record profits. But more importantly, these multinationals have competition. They will get better deals, bigger revenue, and even a monopoly, if they can not jsut keep the others at the bottom but DESTROY those that climbed to millionaire or upper middle class status, even just middle class. Goodbye competition. More money and more power. Twitter recently just went full "we're running this show now" and banned a NY Post showing an email that proves Biden knew about his son & Ukraine. This disgusting tentacular social network is banning anyone that tries to mention this story, they are shutting it down entirely. And since everyone gets their info from those sites... Twitter is also Antifa means of communication but I digress. I don't see how any government can completely enforce high taxes without collapsing the entire economy, but even if they magically got billionaires to pay 70%, it is still a small price to kill all competition and be an all powerful overlord of a monopoly that can really take advantage of their power and of their wealth and exploit desperate people (cattle). So you end up with all powerful sociopathic megabillionaire oligarchs running monopolies WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE (FOOLS!) that decide who makes the laws (gee I wonder if they'll pick people that make laws that go against their interests). If you think it's all fine they have good intentions (lol) even if they had, if fools can get manipulated by 1 group they can be as easily manipulated by another. Let's not forget Hitler came to power with the support of YES Antifa & the communist party, even Röhm was a big socialist with dreams of free stuff. Goebbels started as a marxist in his youth... Manipulating crowds of idiots is overpowered can god nerf it or something? Optimists are blissfully ignorant idiots. Pessimists are depressed sad people that miss all opportunities. Adapters are winners. Can't beat them? Join them. Either you are a superman supergenius with higher standards - in which case you'll be a hated arrogant jerk that thinks he is better than every one - or you become a manipulative shark that does not play fair. If this is what society demands then that's how you win. And the crowd will even cheer for you. No one is more celebrated and sanctified by the public than Elon Musk...
NYSE:BRK.AEducation
by MrRenev
3
Why I don't use MA/EMA indicators in my analysis Hello everyone: In this video, I am going to explain my reasonings on why I personally don't use MA/EMA in my analysis. I will start off by saying that I have nothing against traders who use them and are consistent and profitable. I am sure there are many who do use indicators in their analysis along with their trading plan, risk management that find success in trading in given marker conditions. For me, my trading style focuses on price action structures/patterns. I am analyzing the market in its pure form of movement. In order for me to be clear on the price action, I need to “remove” all sorts of other “noise” on the chart. This is when having MA/EMA, and other common indicators can create potential issues for my style of trading. When we have indicators on the chart, it normally does help traders to identify “trending” markets, overbought/sold, as an example. The most used ones such as MA/EMA are going to help traders to find trends of continuations, but it doesn't necessarily become a target or support/resistance for the price to bounce off. Many find trading through such an “area” would be not ideal, hence they can take profit or target that general area. While, some can use that as a stop loss area, so long the price will “reverse” from it. However, when I see the price action on the HTF is in the impulsive phrase of the market conditions, on the LTF the indicators will not “catch up” to the most current price conditions. As the indicators are calculated based on the price movement, and since an impulse pushes up/down the price very aggressively, it takes time for them to take the movement into its equations and move according to it. The important thing is to not “overload” your chart with too many indicators and lines going across. There will be too many “contradicting” biases and it will confuse you as a trader. Simplicity is best, and less is more. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
12
Trade Like a Pirate: Ye needs the aRRR!!!!One of the amazing things about trading the financial markets is that it is the only industry where we “common folk” have the potential to EXPONENTIALLY grow our income day after day, week after week, year after year. All our lives, from opening up our first lemonade stand to landing our first job, we are taught to make LINEAR income: to exchange TIME for MONEY. We are told that we must work “X” amount of hours per day, and you can earn “Y” amount of money. If you want more money, you simply have to work longer and harder: work overtime, work a second job, or start a "side hustle", and though it is true you can increase your earning power through multiple income streams or by climbing the corporate ladder, you are always going to be limited to the amount of money you can make because there are only so many hours in a day that you can work. As Al Pacino said in Scarface, "Say hello to my little friend…” May I introduce to you, “R”, which stands for “Return”. There are two powerful paradigms that you, Dear Trader, have access to in our glorious financial markets, and our primary goal needs to be that we MAXIMIZE all we can from them. Paradigm Number One is a popular reason that we enter the fray: Instead of "working for our money” we trade so that we can "make our money work for us." Instead of clocking into a job where are are assigned duties where we will earn our daily bread, we take our “bread" and we assign it to a company, a commodity, or a currency in the stock, options, futures, and forex markets. We aim to hit “X” dollars per day or “Y” PIPs per day and call ourselves successful traders. Paradigm Number Two is where the magic is, and is the topic of this article: let's “kick it up a notch” as Emeril likes to say. Instead of trying to earn "so many dollars per day," let us instead set our sights on achieving a certain “R” per day. “R" is a measure of *return* based upon the amount of ‘risk’ we are willing to take on any trade. A good rule of thumb is that with any trade, you should never risk more than 1% of your account equity and you should never get into a trade without at *least* a 3-to-1 expectation of Reward if you are correct. This is known as the "reward-to-risk ratio”, or “R”. The working principle behind this is that we want to keep our risk *small* (i.e. you won’t blow up your account with a bad trade) and our reward *large*, where your winning trades will give you a minimum of three times what you are risking. In this scenario of 3:1 you don’t have to be the best of traders to be a profitable trader. Say you do 3 trades per day and you were a mediocre trader, where you are only batting one out of three. You can only have a 33% hit rate, only winning one of every 3 trades, and if that were the case you would win 3%, lose 1%, and lose 1%, netting 1 “R" for the day. (3-1-1 = 1) "1R? What good is that?" you might ask? Well here’s where we start talking about the *miracle* of compounding. On Day 1 with a $10,000 account you would look at risking $100 per trade to win $300. If you lost 2 and won 1, your account now has a value of $10,100. So on day 2 you aren’t risking $100, but $101. Every day you place 3 trades and win at least 1, your account grows not linearly, but *exponentially*. Each week you are making more and more money EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE DOING THE SAME AMOUNT OF WORK. By week 34 you are risking $500 to make $1,500. At the end of the year, (theoretically of course) that $10,000 could be worth over $120,000 - Your account has now grown in an order of *magnitude* from where you started. And all you are doing is placing 3 trades per day. Day in. Day out. Do it again for year 2 and see what you come up with! Every day you are doing the same amount of work, but every day you are generating an increasing amount of cashflow as the 1% you are risking grows each and every day. What does it take to get these kind of results? First, it takes a system of trading that you can follow that can give you at least a 1-in-3 success rate. Second, (and this is the hard part...) it’s all about YOU. Every day you don’t trade is anther day your net worth doesn’t grow… another day you will have to WAIT to achieve your dreams, whatever reason it was that you decided to become a trader. But once you start realizing the power of R you will NEVER want to trade time for money again: you will want to increase your net worth by 1R, 2R, 5R per day until you reach that Magic Number you need to say “I’m done… I’ve got all the money I need to live as long as I need to enjoy the lifestyle I desire.” TradingView makes it super-simple to put this philosophy into practice. Using the Long & Short Position tool, you can map out your trade, right-click the tool, select “Create Limit Order” and then change the “% Risk” field to 1%, 0.25%, or whatever your trading plan requires. (My personal “R” is one quarter of one percent, .025). For stock trading, the tool then automatically fills in the number of shares that will satisfy your risk percentage. For futures, it automatically calculates the number of contracts, and for Forex (most brilliantly!) it will automagically perform the necessary currency conversion and calculate the number of Units you can trade. THIS FEATURE ALONE is why I became a Premium subscriber to TradingView to trade through my Forex and Futures brokers - no more position sizer spreadsheets! If you are not using the Long and Short position tool to place your orders you are missing out on a great resource. I will leave a link to a TradingView blog post on how to use it below. A great exercise to get you excited about trading like a pirate is to create your own trading spreadsheet and calculate like a Pirate: Calculate your “aRRRRRRR” in multiple scenarios. There are 250 trading days per year give or take. What if you grew by 1R per day and you traded every day? What if you grew by 3R per day but you only traded 2 days per week? What if you were an options trader and you only traded on Mondays but you gained 7R per week? What if you threw in a home-run 20R trade every 3 weeks? (Yes, they do happen!) What’s your end retirement goal? $2 million? $7 million? When can you calculate that you will get there? By estimating your exponential growth you will be able to estimate the you will reach your life target. Although these scenarios are idealized (we’re not *always* going to have a “Green Candle Day”) we need to have a PLAN for our trading activity. Having a *plan* and matching that with a *vision* will give you a *passion* to DO what you need to do so you will GET what you want to get. As Louis Carrol said, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” And as Norman Vincent Peale said, "Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars.” Make you plan, and work your plan. And having an exciting Vision will help you wake up early, stay up late, and stay on track. I hope this lesson helps you bring out your inner pirate… I’ll see you on the high seas of the financial markets! Trade Hard, and trade well… Till next time… -Anthony www.tradingview.com
Education
by ocaptain
54
We laugh at noobs: Day Traders and "free stuff" bagholders> Idiotic day trader with 96% winrate and 10 to 1 risk to reward, that sells courses for $99 a month, posts his enormous losses on social networks "Madaznfootballr" took an enormous loss yesterday, blames "manipulation" and says "he'll make it all back" with his incredible gambling strategy. No idea if it is a simulator, but he only posts his gambles after the outcome. Real money or not his foolish clients are going to earn a valuable lesson. One could go over his tweets from 8 years ago when he posted what he did before the outcome and run it against market data and see how much it lost, but sounds like a big waste of time. For the FTC & SEC it would not be a waste of time thought, rather easy to do and it can be compared to his claims of winning to help build evidence quite easily although they would need way more than this and so then it might not be worth the effort (for a small fish). Day traders will have their fun until they get wiped out. > Quant fund manager posts a video about day trading Goes through the history of how it got started in the early days of online trading late 80s and 90s, with the SOES bandits that were abusing the Nasdaq market makers (sort of how some of us did with crypto idiots in january 2018 especially Kraken very unprofessional & greedy participants and easy to punish). Explains how those day traders forced the Nasdaq & MM to enter the 21st century and now all is electronic and the day traders have been replaced by HFT. The SEC release from 2003 detailing how they had to pay 70 million in fines. www.sec.gov The edge they had is of course long gone but the concept has evolved into HFT. There was another kind of day trader at the time and this kind still exists, and this quant trader that has been doing this for 20 years and technically is a day trader as his holding periods are 1-3 hours explains how those day traders are using random techniques and have no idea what their edge is which is normal since their random technical analysis methods have no edge. Patrick Boyle. > Free phone "investing" app Robinhood users had accounts looted, but there is no one to call First let me say that HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Let me catch my breath... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Robinhood is the gift that never stops giving. Users are reporting their accounts getting liquidated (stocks & bitcoin sold) and money getting withdrawn. OMG so ... users could see pending withdrawal and tried to intervene, Robinhood answer - hold your breath - "we will write back to you in a few weeks". Soooo they hopelessly watched their money vanish with no possibility to intervene. Well I have gotten every single one of my brokers on the phone at least once, and there IS an emergency number and money can only be withdrawn to 1 bank account and I have my money with several brokers and I only deposit whatever I need (+ a bit more obviously to absorb volatility). You get what you pay for. Man what idiots. Ah what a beautiful day ^^ The experienced trading community is under shock and have come to the defense of the victims. Nah I'm just kidding they are either laughing, shrugging and saying "told you so", saying it was not a matter of whether it would happen but when it would happen, writing in huge police and with big flashy colors and saying "here you moron when I write it in big flashy bright colorful colors do you understand"... Most heartless sarcastic anti-social arrogant absolute lack of empathy community in the world. <3 Imagine looking for comfort with this crowd. Besides, they've been warning for years. I'm not saying this is the big end for Robinhood, just another obstacle on the road that won't stop gamblers from joining. The fools that got their accounts emptied sure paid their fair share to keep the app "free". Some of the desperate users have called the SEC & FINRA for emergency action hahaha some of you will know why this is funny. If Robinhood says it will answer in a few weeks the regulators get back to you in a few years... (They do not literally say it like this but it does take years) One of the customers' reactions really finished me off "“They don’t have a customer service line, which I’m quite shocked about,” Bagheri said." An engineer of 36 years old says he suffers mental stress because he lost his entire life savings... of $2,850... Wut? I have so much to say here... western consumerism... all eggs in one basket... and much more Robinhood really is a nest of cretins, just unbelievable. Some US millennials learning a valuable lesson today. They will learn a VERY valuable lesson if Kamala gets the presidency and a VERY VERY valuable lesson if the constitution is changed and the Senate gets in the hands of "democrats" (last democrat president was Bill Clinton and last democrat Senate was sometime under Obama or at least the lower house maybe the senate lasted a bit longer but it's gone now) Their money was supposedly sent to Revolut, I think it is going to end up being laundered in the CRYPTOS THEY LOVE SO MUCH AND "INVESTED IN". "Crypto is not for criminals this is FUD" they scream, as their money is getting laundered in shady cryptos by crypto criminals. God has a great sense of humor <3 I don't want to only criticize Robinhood, they have given access to the complex financial markets to the masses that otherwise could not have their chance, masses that have no idea what they are doing and should not be left anywhere close to a buy button for their own good. Nah but seriously, Robinhood did make it very quick, free and easy to use, especially for criminals. As a closing word, scientists have noted that global IQS have dwindled in the past decade, and there are theories about the rise of IQS before that being more an education and access to food thing than real raw intelligence. > Day trader (that was a registered investment adviser) that lost all of his "friend" money sentenced to $1.4M Another "Wealth Management" investment adviser that decided to be a day gambler Being a professional does not protect from stupidity or make traders profitable when they do something that HAS NO EDGE NEVER HAD NEVER WILL. Most of us will remember the 100X optionsellers James Cordier that made a hilarious apology video 2 years ago after losing all of his clients money and more selling naked way oom options on CME & ICE futures. Another notable example was the gamblers at LJM Preservation And Growth Fund. Recently a Colorado Day Trader Ran Ponzi Scheme on Air Force Cadets and the tip some got out of it is "he was not a registered advisor" clearly we have seen countless times that did not protect from degens and Maddofs. Back to the "friends", the lawsuit states that in 2011 the day gambler took part in "egregious day trading, almost immediately losing huge amounts of money while earning fees for himself". If it happened in 2020 he might have been in the green for a while. The money lost was inheritance so it's not like this guy lost anything he deserved. The 2 men are 60 year old boomers. Imagine being this guy's parents, you leave your money to your dumb boomer or millenial kid for his retirement thinking he'll have nothing to worry about and he loses everything instantly. Boomers are the second dumbest generation after millennials. And both generation are huge lesson givers (millenials with the virtue on top of it). Gen Z is extremely dumb but they are young, and more gullible and zombified by tik tok than sick in the head, maybe they'll grow up and not be as bad. Who throws their ENTIRE life savings or inheritance at 1 broker or 1 "friend" or 1 anything? Because "Muh Munger and other billionaires said diversification was for idiots". Ye and gambling it all on 1 chip is not stupid... Day gamblers are destined to lose, if they are so eager to be stuck to a screen all day long they should get into scalping at least here they'll get to take a ton of trades just scalping the spread, there is no money left, even OGs that didn't want to quit ended up leaving, might be a few pennies left, but at least they'll be busy doing something and maybe not lose everything in such short amounts of time. > Leaked conversation between an FX and a Stock course selling scammers Content creator Coffeezilla shared a funny conversation between 2 "signals" and "trade with your money investment" scammers recently. Nigerian princes are adapting as market conditions evolve: there are turning to new hype things, as with the markets edges change, nigerian princing does not make much money anymore, but selling FX & Stock day trading courses to idiots is extremely profitable at the moment. The fx nigerian prince is afraid of SARS, not covid, the other SARS: Special Anti-Robbery Squad. This police unit is a tidy tiny bit violent and corrupt. Obviously they are black on black and not in the US and not trying to get Trump out of the house so no one gives a rat's ass. Meanwhile 3 us blacks aiming guns at people died to a white cop and 2 died of an overdose time to get the whole world involved. Braindead generation. 40 to 50% of Nigeria is illiterate (mostly bantus I guess). These guys have good english & even speak like young westerners, more likely than not they are wealthy upper class or studied abroad and are qualified to find good jobs. Alot of Nigerians will defend them "they are just taking from the rich" but between the ones that migrate to the USA to earn more than whites, those that illegally enter Europe, and then those that scam idiots rather than build the country they are massively slowing down growth, to be blunt the top 5 to 15% of a country is the sole reason for its economic success the rest of the country just follows along. If they are making a lot of money scamming they are not "distributing money to the people" they are consuming a lot while producing nothing so rather than the opposite, although sure some of this money can be used for importing but just importing consumer goods does not build a country. Obviously these abstract (but quite obvious) concepts are completely foreign to basically nearly everyone on the planet. > Robinhood tries wriggling its way out of a lawsuit by justly calling its users degen gamblers (sort of) According to law360 Robinhood gamblers have filed a lawsuit back in March, on the 4rth, 2 days after the app had an outage that locked gamblers out of their account. LOL! So they're trying to convince us they would have cut their losses? Yes and my ass it is chicken. These clowns are so delusional it is entirely possible they actually believe they would have. We all know what they REALLY would have done: SOLD MORE. If short losses of access was such a nuisance they had to be day gamblers right? Or maybe they were long not short and were looking to breakeven after the market made a small move up, and Robinhood ruined their wonderful strategy of holding bags to zero and run for the exits the instant something goes their way. The lawsuit claims "Robinhood simply abandoned its customers". The rekt baggies also accuse the bucket shop to have a "game-like interface" pushing them to gamble with real money, admitting they were too stupid to comprehend the very real risks. "Unfortunately for many Americans, losing investment and retirement funds or accruing colossal debt is not a game, and the consequences have been tragic". Hehehe. One more time "colossal debt" aaah so relaxing. Welcome to my ASMR idea: "Robinhood users have accrued colossal debt, relax...". Guess where? Can you guess where the lawsuit was submitted by millennial phone app "investors"? California court :) I wonder if these "investors" can't quote a single book like many that were street interviewed by Mark Dice a few years ago, and I reaaally wonder who they vote for and so on. Funny how they keep arguing and the cold hard reality keeps rekting them. And now they have been financially punished for their immense stupidity they are trying to argue their money back. These idiots that think money falls from the sky and life is an mmorpg will never learn their lesson. And so they will keep being made fools of and never admitting it, simply digging their grave every time. This monday (5/10) Robinhood lawyers said that the lawsuit was "so free of detail" it couldn't even explain in what way Robinhood was responsible for their losses. My guess is they got rekt for being dumb, and as California millenials always do, are looking for someone else to blame for their own mistakes. "Well it kinda happened at the same time so... reparations and social programs please". The part about them being degen gamblers is the defendants called the gamblers approach "shoot for the moon", and that if they clearly defined it the amount of reparations for their own mistakes they could ask for would be much much smaller. These kids didn't get slapped enough by their parents or by life. The lawsuit was apparently delayed this summer because the San Francisco judge did not accept the litigation counsel team. Can you guess why? Qualifications? Talent? History? Of course it's because they were men. "Not diverse enough". The judge sounds like they would make a prime Robinhood investor. We should all take example from ISIS, they have made sure to include female lawyers and judges, the women that want to pursue these career paths are allowed too, seriously, the places with the most "diversity efforts" and "women freedom" are the places where women go the LEAST towards certain career paths. Ah I remember the good old days where an ISIS female judge I think it was, asked the Caliph to be able to chop off the head of a "traitorous" other female judge, which of course he accepted, the headless judge surely was overjoyed at the equality she got on that day, no preferential treatment, head goes off like everyone else. The Woke States of America is the other gift that never stops giving. After a likely bubble, everything will crash and they will experience poverty for years to come, and for years to come we will get to laugh at their failures, at their wokeness, at their misery, until they go full fascist and it will sadly be taboo to make jokes about it 🙁 Thankfully the people that frown and enforce those taboos are way too stupid to see it coming so it's free season until it actually happens and everyone is fully aware of it 😁
HEducation
by MrRenev
3
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading Hello traders: Welcome back for a quick educational video on over leveraged trading. This ties with Trading Psychology greatly, and I want to elaborate on this a bit more to give new and experienced traders my understanding on this topic. It's important to know that leverage can work for you as well as against you. You may already hear this a lot when you open a new broker account. However, it's only when you actually start trading then you will understand the true meaning of this. When you enter a trade with leverage, you are entering with a great risk behind if you don't have proper risk management. Since leverage is a “double edge sword”, trades that are in profit or losses will be magnified. You are easily over traded, meaning you can have multiple entries on the same pair or same move/run. Again, this would be nice if the trades are going in your favor, but if not then you are going to have a huge drawdown of your account. Professional traders understand drawdown is evitable, but they also minimize it so when they are in profit, they can easily make the drawdown backs. Let's take an example of what an over leveraged trading combine with trading psychology could look like: ---enter a trade, and with a big position (no risk management, and not consistent with trading plan) ---begin to see price fall, then either he/she will have a SL and get taken out, or no SL then price will continue to drop then the small account is gone in no time due to the big position. ---If he/she did have a SL, then they are taken out, but just lost a bigger % of their account. Now the emotions kick in to try to “chase” the money back. So revenge trading emotions start. ---Because the account has high leverage, the person can easily open a bigger lot position, double the previous one in fact (same strategy out there says to do this) and make back your losses. If first trade was risking 5%, then this next trade is 10%) ---After several losses, the account is already cut in ½, and he/she can no longer open the high lot positions. ---They will then reduce their position size, but still at maximum leverage allows. ---Soon the account will get blown out, and the person will either blame the market, strategy, lesson and more. I see this cycle of trading all the time in new traders, and it has a combination factor such as emotion, mindset, risk management, trading plan and more. But what is easily controlled by you is to reduce leverage allowed on the account. Simply dropping it down to less leverage will help the trader to not over leverage, and maintain a few trades only with smaller position sizes. So, I encourage the new traders to really think about this topic and reflect on yourself to see if you ever fall into this cycle before. You may not blow your account, but certainly have experienced revenge trading and over leverage trade when the emotions kick in. I myself included it at the beginning of my trading journey also. That is all I gotta say on this one. Let me know if you have questions and feedback :) I will chat with everyone next time in my live stream. Thank you
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
24
If you'll flip an account, when you will blow it again?3. If you flip an account, like you want, how long would it take to blow it again? Let’s imagine you have a small account like $2000-$3000. What do you want from it? Most likely, you would like to live from it, so depending of a country you live in you’ll need somewhat between $600 to $2000 a month for a decent living, right? In this scenario, you’ll need to make 20-100% of your account per month. In order to make this much money, you will need to be either a super lucky and super professional trader with an astonishing winrate and good consistent risk reward. Most likely you are not. I am not if you ask me. So I don’t have astonishing WR and good RR. So what can I do to make this much of money, when my trades are not so good? Any ideas? Yes, I can risk more per trade and HOPE this trade will go in my direction and also HOPE that somehow I will stay calm seeing all this huge profits just grow and grow, and also HOPE I will be able to not close the trade when the pullback happens, and also HOPE I will stay calm and emotionally stable if the trade after having being in big profits will turn back and go to breakeven or a drawdown. Sounds familiar? So actually how mentally strong this person should be to bear all these emotionally? And how many times in a row the the person will be able to do it? Is it realistic to expect consistency from this style of trading in the long term? But ok, let’s imagine, someone is able to produce 100% a month from his $2k account? Can you imagine how emotional this person will feel? He definitely knows that 5-10% a month is already a great, great result (if done consistently though), and he just made 100%. He will probably think he’s the king of the universe and he will probably try to make even more than 100% that next month. Really the only thing he does is taking a big, big run off the high high cliff and soon he will be dead, meaning he’s account will be blown. This kind of thinking will help me to better understand the absurd of the desire to flip an account, at least for myself.
Education
by Yelli_trades
Importance of Risk Management - let's talk about it againIntroduction We all hear from everywhere about risk management. They all say the same: “It’s important, it will help you to protect your capital, etc., etc.” But today I wanted to talk to myself about risk management in more detail. And I’m sure I will have a much better understanding of practical risk management in forex after this - I will talk through its psychological aspects, about RM role as the main principle of trading. I will do it in “talking to myself” format to remind myself in the first place about how important risk management it. Don’t be fooled by the simplicity of risk management. Unfortunately, risk management in FX is too simple. Dangerously simple I would say. In its basic form, good risk management means risking 0.25%-1% of your account per one trade. That’s it. Just do that and most likely you will have an unbreakable account for at least several months. Yes, of course, you can have a drawdown due to emotional trading or revenge trading or whatsoever. But because you will have good risk management, I will have so much time to stop trading emotionally, I can even take 10 revenge trade or 10 absolutely random stupid trades - and your capital will still be in place, even if you will lose every and each of these 20 trades. I ask myself the question - how do people blow their accounts? Very often it happens in 1-5 days of bad, emotional trading, even if the whole months before was good. I’m talking from my experience though, and I don’t know - maybe everyone else is good as their risk management. So why really it happens? In the first place because of bad risk management. Not because of the strategy, not because of the market acting randomly and not in my favor. Because I don’t want to have a simple yet powerful rule of risking 0.25-1% per trade. I start to complicate things and want to risk 5-20% at first, to gain some profits, and only THEN I want to implement good RM. Theoretically, it’s possible, yes, but in reality, I lose my mind and blow my account. So don’t be fooled by the simplicity of RM - because it’s not easy. Because it’s not easy to control yourself while facing a possibility of doubling your account in 1 day and to stay calm and even indifferent to it. Always remember, Risk Management is the #1 rule, you can't control the market, but you can control your risk management. Stay calm and risk 1%. Trading is a survival game. RM is the foundation of any strategy, risk management is the most important part of any strategy and step #1. Stay calm and risk 1%. Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot sleep because of your stock market position (you are weak), then you have gone too far. Reduce your positions to the sleeping level." Stay calm and risk 1%.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
Mental Tips of TradingIntroduction - To lower stress levels, trade less and get away from watching every single price chance. Day traders could trade only the open and closing hour, swing traders could just take opening and closing signals. You could go from every tick to just checking in every hour or so if you have options or hard stops in. Most of the days, trading is random noise, and randomness will cause stress. Focus on your timeframe, and only the quotes that really matter when they matter. How to not be stressed while trading? - Only trade when the odds are in your favor. It is much less stressful trading this way. - Do not blame yourself for losses if you followed all your rules. The market giveth and the market taketh, just keep taking your entries and exits. - If you don't know what to do, DO NOTHING. - Do not listen to any unsolicited advice about the trade you are in. Follow your own plan and shield yourself from distraction. - Know yourself as a trader, and only take your kind of trades. Take trades that will leave no regrets because they were good trades, regardless of the outcome. - Believe in your ability to follow your trading plan. You must have faith in yourself to lower your stress level. - Keep your EGO our of your trading, run it like a business, with the profits and losses as your focus and not your ego. Coherence - Your brain and heart works the best when there is synchronization between all systems, this is called 'coherence'. Researchers throughout the '90s established that with every beat of the heart, intricate messages are being sent to the entire body. - As people experience emotional reactions like frustration, irritation, anxiety, or anger, heart rhythms become chaotic, which interferes with communication between the heart and the brain. - If you are not in tune with yourself, you can cause DORMANT fears of failure to awaken, and you will undoubtedly miss good opportunities through making IRRATIONAL trading decisions. Emotional Intelligence in Trading - The Emotional Quotient (emotional intelligence) is our ability to recognize and assess our own emotions, to manage these emotions in order to achieve our purposes. - EQ is also the ability to discriminate between different emotions of the people and label them correctly, by using the emotional information to guide thoughts and behavior. @here How does this apply to trading? - Emotional intelligence makes a great part of a trader's performance. It has proven that the human brain has the power to increase EQ by effort (trying, being persistent, following rules, backtesting strategies) and education (studying, performing research). - Self-awareness: Every trader should be aware of his/her qualities, strengths and weaknesses so then he/she could manage better his emotions and take right decisions when trading. - Motivation: Very well motivated traders are more challenged and are more abled to take right decisions in the market. - Self-control: Controlling emotions is a crucial element of the trading process. It is important for a trader to regulate his emotions by targeting them to a proper and emotionally balanced activity. - Being able to monitor our own emotions is perhaps the greatest skill we can have. Traders who can handle their negative emotions are the most successful ones. How to stop being impulsive and over-trade - Did you know that there is an actual ANATOMY to 'Impulsive Emotional Hijacking'. Wang was prepared. After careful observation and charting, he planned his trade - and knew what he was looking to do. Now he is going to trade his plan. He brought his charts up and declared, "I'm going to make money today.", he said it with the confidence of his winning mindset as he glanced at the P/L of his trading account. Just sitting there watching the pre-market activity, Wang could feel the excitement building :vince: . So much opportunity, and it looked promising. Wang was ready to take advantage of it, this time he was going to build his account up -- not blow it up. As the market opened, he sees that TSLA FB SPY just taking off like a rocket. "Man, that was sweet. I could have rode that one!" He muttered to himself as his excitement grew. He IMAGINED what the money would look like in his trading account. It felt good, then he saw another potential trade. "There was real opportunity this morning." he thought. Wang sits on the sideline while others were taking advantage of the action, and that got his competitive JUICES flowing. Then another one came up, not willing to let another one get away from him, he jumped on this one. Almost immediately, it took off. "YEESSSSIRRRRRR" Then suddenly it turned against him, heading for his stop. He caught his P/L in the corner of his eye taking a nose dive. WANG felt a surge of energy and resolve flow through him, "It'll come back. I'll give it some more room, I can feel it." So he moved his stop to let this one play out. It crashed right through and stopped him out. Now, after this loss... He wanted to get even, so he quickly found another setup that looked good to him and jumped in ready to win and vindicate himself. That trade turned against him almost immediately and stopped him out, sounds familiar? Over-trading, or impulsive trading (to be more accurate), is a common problem. It blows up trading accounts too many times to be counted. It is common 'wisdom' that a trader needs to plan his/her trade and then trade his/her plan. But just like WANG in the example, traders end up jumping into trades that they have no business being in. They know what to do... They just cannot do it in the heat of the trade. It's perplexing. WangYesterday at 7:56 PM Notice, initially, WANG starts with the best of intentions. He does his homework, studies his charts, and planned his trade with the intention of trading his plan. We know that he did not do that in the heat of the trade, but we do know what he started out with a credible plan. Then something happened, but what? He started out by ATTUNING to the market so that he had a feel for it. Then he took the first step into his personal abyss - He declared "I'M GOING TO MAKE MONEY TODAY." This is an affirmation and visualization that many traders make as they prepare for their day and it is a mindset that they keep engaging in throughout the day. Their minds are focused on making money today, you can hear the urgency - TODAY. The problem with this line of thinking is that you DO NOT control whether you win or lose in trading. If you keep pushing that you are going to win, when you have ABSOLUTELY NO CONTROL over your declaration, what do you think is going to happen? Your survival brain eventually REBELS against you. Let me take you down the rabbit hole again --> WANG is an alpha personality, he believes that his will should prevail and that he can make winning happen. He came by that attitude honestly as he was a man who always strived for success, and now he has focused that energy on trading. In his other approach to life prior to trading, he knew how to win, to make things happen, and (especially) not to lose. It served him well, until now. WANG's identity is built around winning - not managing probability. His determined and forceful attitude molded his personality. The problem is that this mindset, forged by winning repeatedly, did not prepare him for trading environment where randomness of the markets prevails. The toughest part, though, was losing. WANG hated to lose, and that trait manifested when he revenge traded. His grit simply would not let him lose, he would attack even harder and determined to get his losses back no matter what. What I am asking YOU to see is the short fuse on the alpha's winning mindset. It happened so fast and the hijackings was so natural to him that he never noticed it - until after the damage was done. Yep, he done blew up his account. :cryroll: How do you fix this mentality in trading? It comes down to self-mastery, where winning becomes focused instead solely on landing on the right side of the probability and losing only means that you have landed on the wrong side probability. Are you ready? ---> - While trading, there is no thrill of winning, nor agony of defeat. It was only probability - either way. What matters is the mind you bring into the moment of performance. This is the game changer, it is the psychological edge where you are no longer PROVING yourself. - You are only performing, that is the mind that gives you the edge of what's possible. A new kind of mentality has to rise from the impulsive blunders of the past. This one is rooted in PATIENCE. - Instead of stalking opportunity, the new WANG waits in ambush for the opportunity to COME TO HIM. Like I always say, be a sniper and not a machinegunner. Trading is about embracing uncertainty, while the brain you brought to trading is wired for certainty, prediction, and control. Rewiring your brain begins with calming the emotions that coordinate action/behavior between the trader and the environments of the market. "I was doing so good, my mind was in the zone and it felt like a state of flow. I made $1200 in the morning and stopped for the day, just like my trading rules dictate. Couldn't have been happier. Wow, this was really working!" The very next morning ---> "I'm in a good mood and ready for the day, then I turned around and gave all my profits back - and then some. It's baffling, I thought I had my head together but before I knew it - I got stuck into a vortex that sucked capital right out of my wallet. Why does this keep happening? It's a common problem. - Most "students" of trading seek consistent profitability on a regular basis. You get some momentum going and begin to see your trading gel. Your confidence begins to grow, showing that you can, indeed, make consistent money by trading. Then it just blows up right in your face, not only do you lose the gain you made - you lost some more. Often a whole lot more, one minute you have a growing confidence that you can do this trading thing. The next minute, that confidence burns down and frustration grows from the ashes. So, what's behind the self-sabotage? - Winning makes you feel good, and you want to win - to make money. When the trader in the example "wins" $1200 in a single trade, it made him feel good. Why? Because winning triggers a hormone called 'dopamine' (at the center of the reward chemistry of the human brain), and that is the problem. - The euphoria of "feeling good" is an emotional state that causes thinking to become skewed into believing that the good times are going to roll on forever and that he/she (trader) has the power to control the outcome of the trade. However, winning (in this trader's understanding) produces this sense of power that is dangerous to the management of uncertainty. - The emotion of euphoria that appeared when the trader won also warped the kind of thinking and analysis that he/she was capable of producing as a trader. - The winning trade led not to power, rather, led to euphoria --> over-confidence --> then caused the trader to believe he was making the winning happen. - Factors that give rise to an effective trading mind are: Discipline ; risk management ; courage ; self-soothing ; and impartiality. Feeling GOOD has ABSOLUTELY NO PART in a profitable trader's mind. First thing to accept as a trader is that "feeling good" is not desirable as a trading emotion. - You have to be able to notice if and when "feeling good" has started contaminating your trading mind, and that is way easier said than done. Many traders believe that if they could get past their fear of loss, they would not have problems in trading. But you would then only be able to deal with losses, you need to learn how to deal with winning and the over-confidence that can easily develop when a trader starts winning. You have to learn how to deal with the euphoria associated with winning. It's just the evolution of the trader beginning to adapt to the demands of successful trading. Most impulsive trading is primarily rooted in the emotions of LUST, rather than 'greed'. Many traders experience the awakening of 'lust' (wanting more, more, and more) after winning and pocketing in money. Greed is about wanting more than your reasonable share, so there is a balance between lust's "wanting more, more, and more" and greed's wanting more than your reasonable share, which plays into the phenomena of "giving it all back and more". The potential of a successful trader's mind is in the balance and mastering the mind. You can be the designer of the mind you bring to the engagement of uncertainty and risk, rather than its hostage. No matter what you have been told, the brain/mind that you brought to trading CANNOT bring you success in trading. In fact, it will lock you into failure. Rebuild the brain/mind against the WILL of your survival brain, because it is built for SHORT TERM SURVIVAL and gives you the signal that you need to be in control which you cannot due to market's uncertainty. Your survival brain is freaked out by the uncertainty, risk, and speed of day trading. You experience this as fear or aggression in your trading that takes over rational thinking in moments of stress. This will not change with experience or trying harder or trying to exert control. -- Your brain has to be RE-TRAINED. If you can get your brain unstuck, your emotional part of the brain can be developed to engage uncertainty, risk, and the speed from a patient and disciplined response rather than the reactive response that is common among traders. 'Emotional Regulation' and 'Mindfulness' are the essential skills needed in order to adapt your brain/mind for performance in trading. When trading, focus on what you can control. Let your MIND manage your performance. We all understand that losses are hard. But the year is young, and there are lots of opportunities ahead to make it all back. The only thing is that the opportunities will ONLY appear to those that are PREPARED and able to MAINTAIN a sober mind. Train yourself to approach trading in a way that's sustainable as opposed to letting it be something that consistently plays with your emotions and wears you down. Meaning... 'Risk management and 'mindset management'. It is crucial that you understand the market is NOT A CASH COW you get to milk whenever you want. The market is its own beast, remember that. There comes a moment when a "struggling" trader has to acknowledge that what they are doing is not working. Your trading performance is not going to change until this realization humbles you to the core. You have no control over whether you win or lose - but most traders are consumed by winning and losing. They are possessed by something that they can never control. What you can learn, though, is to control the mind that you bring into trading performance. Let go of the illusion of 'control over outcome' and embrace building the mentality that you need to be managing uncertainty.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by TradeAtEase
46
A quick look at funded trader prop firmsI hear alot about those and I see alot of ads and get e-mails for certain of those and I am stubborn and refuse to acknowledge the existance of something if they annoy me through ads but I was genuinely curious (that's what they want us to think) because to me "I'm a professional prop trader" sounds alot like "I'm a professional poop sucker". Is this prop trading really for the experience very good traders? Well from my research no it is not. You get more funds to trade cool ok, with a regular broker you also get more funds to trade it is called leverage. You can change the name all you want it's still the same thing. Either: 1- They let you put your money at risk by requiring you to have a small stake in the whole pot (drawdowns eat up your part of the pot not theirs) 2- They entirely fund the account but actually not really, I explain in the next paragraph Here is 1 example (this is one of the best reviewed ones the bottom ones are not even worth looking at or yes but just for laughing): After asking you questions like "what do you plan if you lose 10 in a row", you know this kind of things, and more, and after a demo period of a few weeks or months , they will put you on an account with certain rules. Early on you have more restrictions like smaller max position sizes until you reach a certain profit. In this example to trade a $25000 account there is a $150 monthly fee and also I think a 150 evaluation fee at the start. There is a trailing drawdown stop of $1500 (6% drawdown), so after a couple months of paying subscriptions and making profit for them their "regular" risk is gone (not the swissie one). They do provide some content, like data feed (I don't remember how much brokers charge for this it's in the same area w/e). So they are not taking all the risk, clients (? what should we call them?) pay to cover the risk. Another example is really troll. Like I don't even see why they ask traders to write up so much and go through huge courses (no matter who they are even George Soros has to take the course) and then spend months on demo to be "really sure" and then they put you on a 1k account then 10k after 2 green months, then 20k after 2 green months jesus it takes forever to get some size. And the funny part? They expect you to fund part of the account like 20% and that's your drawdown limit basically (not written in any contract I don't think but they'll just cut you off when you run out of your own money). So you take basically all the risk and they keep 30% of the profit. I don't even get why they go through all these double checks... Most of their risks are with: - new random traders (they double check these guys but there is only so much they can do) - some idiot that scalps the swiss franc for 1 point above the floor and blows the whole account - the typical trash strategy that keeps winning until it does not and then it's the road to zero (the program ends once drawdown is reached) So the major advantages are: - access to leverage you get with any broker, - rogue traders with the discipline of a meth addict get something out of it which are all sorts of restrictions (so... useful for most people actually), - sometimes access to experienced traders & people that can help you out, depending how autistic they are or not, - proprietary tools, all sorts of goodies like a chart with the calendar directly on it, - Some serious capital obviously the biggest one, without the whole risk associated, which also means less stress (still don't get a salary so...), - also I guess telling clueless people you are a "professional" to help you sell courses & EAS weeell I mean if they have traded with the firm for a few months they have made some money and didn't drawdown 3% or whatever the limit is but doesn't mean they are Jim Chanos of forex most likely they have a trash system that works until it doesn't (not that bad if you stop using it when it drawdowns too much as those firms are doing). Seeing that some profitable "investors" (over a few months or years at most imo) end up joining the ones that let you take all the risk and charge you for the priviledge really tells that yes an idiot with the rational analytical abilities of a potato can come up with a profitable strategy if he puts the hours in. But trust me, the road will be hard and the individual won't become a "big short" hero or Soros. Kweku said he knew he wasn't the smartest but he made sure if someone put 1 hour in he'd put 2. He got promoted too fast, they pushed him for more performance, he was afraid of getting deported and then he went full commando and lost billions and got deported to Ghana. Now he give seminars where he whines that bankers are really mean people or something. I don't know what really happened, couldn't he put his foot down? I hate bankers too but I haven't heard bank traders complain only rogue psychopaths at least Nick Leeson or whatshisname Nikkei futures gambler that tried to manipulate the market and "averaged down" (lmao) didn't come up with all these excuses. Reminds me SocGen where I worked (not as a trader) are just so damn annoying with security now, and I read a comm from them where they invested (in hindsight, it's always in hindsight) I don't know how many millions into failsafes and risk management etc. Should have invested way less millions and way earlier than this guys 😬 They won't make you profitable (ok unless what's keeping you from making it is you are a psychopath that can't help it or as they call it "undisciplined"), but you have less risk than if you just went *100 on mex, your risk will be spread over time through the money you made for them and a part of the monthly fees. It's not that bad but it's not that great either. I didn't go into the full calculations you'd have to check risk over time and so on. The coolest part is the ease of mind (chf) but I couldn't care less I live in Europe and we got negative balance protection and guarenteed stops haha what a scam for brokers. Hey actually I already abused that with Oil a few months ago my broker ate the full losses and I got the full win on my other broker. Wups my bad I'm a retail trader no one told me Oil could go negative (really) I thought I clic then lambo. It is not crazy either for the company I don't think. All in all both sides get something out of it. It is better at the start for traders and better as time goes by for the firm in my eyes. They invest time and take most risks at the start, then month after month cash in with less and less risk. Talking about the ones that aren't complete scams obviously this does not apply to "put 10% in that's your max drawdown" these guys for real? 😆 They have some additional rules, for example you might not need to pay for the data (if you already have it via tradingview for example), oh and if you just afk for several days they fire you (you are allowed to take holidays relax but you have to warn first). I'm not sure but I think those are mostly for day traders. They can't sit with someone for 3 years before knowing if he is good or not so wouldn't make sense otherwise. This depressing grind is not soon over for me I'm afraid. Slow feedback sow growth. And without any upside. Not a day trader at all but I STILL have to check charts every day and do research all the time oh gosh why oh why I tried to write down a process and use combos of indicators to make it as easy as possible but I STILL have to scan through 40 charts all the time AND set alerts AND not overfocus one 1 strategy then miss out AND check these alerts over and over AND make a full preliminary TA I estimate on average once a day (2 charts a day so it's not that bad) then full TA set entry etc then watch my position over the day I don't just abandon them and if I look away that's when they'll move and need my attention. 10*40 = 400 alerts a year so about 2 a day (not counting the "other" alerts obviously, only the initial part that is really anoying) Little deviation here xd Why can't I just press a button and have it do every thing for me? I don't want to miss anything, I don't want to spend to much time on boring repetitive tasks, I don't want to forget doing my boring repetitive tasks, but there is no hope there is no cure there are no tricks. Grind the charts, grind the account size. Basically I can make it quite simple I don't need to go draw every level and everything. So I get 40 signals a month or what? I end up having to TA 40 times a month, mostly false signals. Opposed to this I just TA everything - 35 charts - the week end, and then not sure if I keep it like this charts get dirty or re-TA. Damn the result is almost the same. As much work. No way around it I have to TA false signals I thought of 10 other methods it always comes back to the same. With the alerts first it is better I TA useless things less, but I won't see as much, but I will because when I get an alert I do my TA regardless, and only in one direction not both so I gain something. I just want to hire a wagecuck intern to do the dumb boring part xd Found a use for these 80 IQS that society left on the side road. Wait no they'll mess it up 100%. Maybe I can put dancing squirrels shouting motivational orders on my screen to get me through it. Or give myself a reward. Help plz someone I'm desperate this bores me so much. Ok that's it not going to make a full in depth review either just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.
Education
by MrRenev
4
Impulse VS Correction - Price Action Analysis Hello everyone: In this educational video, I will go over what an impulse and a correction is in the market. I will point out how to distinguish them in different time frames, and give a few examples on them as well. The market can only be in two phrases. Either its in an impulsive phrase, or a corrective phrase. It doesn't matter what market or the time frames you are looking at, there will always be impulses and corrections. So, what is an impulse, and what is a correction? Impulse - price is in the high momentum period, and it's moving very fast. Correction - price is consolidating, and moving sideway, or slowing ascending/descending sideway price action. Determine what is impulse, and what is correction will give you a better edge in the market. You don't want to get trapped in the consolidation within the corrections. How can I utilize this to my analysis ? Multi-time frame analysis: From HTF, top down approach, Understand what HTF is doing and go down to LTF for confirmation and entries for the best R:R. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
5
My journey in trading, experiences, ups and downs. Hello everyone: In this video (all talking in this one) I am gonna talk about my trading journey and experiences. All the ups and downs that I have been through in hope to give new and experienced traders a honest raw example of a trader’s journey. Of course everyone learns and absorbs information differently, and I am sure there are people out there who didn't have to go through the way I did, but I thought sharing my journey would help some of us who are still struggling to find consistency in trading. So, a little bit about my trading journey: Beginning Stage -Not profitable the first 2+ years, gone through the roller coaster ride of a trader’s journey -Start with S.R and indicators. Does work and makes profit, but doesn't suit my personality. -Was not consistent, some weeks in profit, some months in losses -Made all the mistakes, wanted to give up and quit many times. -Had negative trading emotions, mindset, and no idea on trading psychology -Not following the trading plan, no risk management -Over trading, over risking, revenge trading -Emotional when I miss out potential runs of the market -Blame the market on my losses Turning Stage: -Did not give up -Admit all my mistakes, work on them, change them. -Truthy admit you are in control of your trading account, not the market, strategies, mentors or other external factors -Put in the time and effort, understand that this is something it can be your career for the next 30 years, what is it to you to put in a few years of hard work ? Acknowledge the market will evolve and change, and we need to adapt as a trader -Understand trading is a probability game, not right or wrong. I can be wrong, and won't affect my emotions. -Want to be the "house" rather than a "player" in a casino setting, -Learn about price action and structures. -Have no problem missing trades and profits, understand the abundance of opportunities in trading -Follow my trading plans, make goals, back testing, forecasting, journaling -Acknowledge my expectations in trading, 3:1 RR, 15-20 trades, 1% risk per trade, 35-40% strike rate (higher strike rate requires less R:R). Looking for consistent growth of accounts and capital -Understand once you are consistent, there will be more opportunities and investors who are willing to let you trade -Continue to have a humble attitude in trading and market -Continue to learn and grow So I hope I answer most of the questions that you have asked, but if you have additional questions on my journey and anything else, let me know below. :) Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
14
"Trend is Your Friend" AnalogyI accidentally deleted my first draft of this so this is the condensed blunt version. *Leaving Tradelandia* Imagine your friend Bob is throwing a big party this weekend and it sounds like it's going to be good one. The trend is movement. The trend is whether or not people are going to the party... not necessarily the quality of the party itself. One more time; THE TREND IS WHERE PEOPLE ARE GOING... not which is "better". Numerous factors contribute to the "trend" for his party. It's possible there's going to be amazing food, lots of entertainment.... and still not having anyone attend. Maybe it's because the party is on a weeknight, there's traffic, or another friend Sarah is also throwing a party at the time. The trend is where people are going. For beginner investors Pretend you didn't know Bob's party is an outdoor party and it's raining. "The trend is your friend" can shield you from making the mistake of not knowing or factoring these conditions into your decision because others that do know this information, will be using it in their decisions and going to Sarah's party. The fact that the trend is to go to Sarah's means, you don't have to make the mistake of thinking "I bet everyone will be going to Bob's because he's serving Pizza"... and then be wrong since everyone else knew about the rain. For intermediate investors Imagine you are running late and you call a friend to decide which party to go to. The friend says, "Bob's party is better and there are more people here!". THIS IS NOT THE TREND. The trend is not a static snapshot. It's possible a big group of people agreed to go to Bob's party first, then head to Sarah's. As you head to Bob's, this group heads to Sarah's. You get to an empty party at Bob's with the food gone and missed the fun. You should have been asking your friend, "by the time I get to the party, will more people be arriving? are people leaving by now? Even if the party is fun, will it be as fun once I am there?" Even if you're friend didn't give you much insight and just said, "Most people are leaving the party in the next 10 minutes"... it likely is enough information to not need to know why they are leaving. That's the trend. For advanced investors Do you get caught up in party details and speculating event turn out? Are you wasting time crunching numbers, asking what food will be at the party, and other information... only to find out you're calculations didn't result in figuring out where everyone else is going? Some last minute party came up and everyone went there? Are you at Bob's party annoyed that Sarah's party isn't as fun and everyone would like Bob's more? Maybe it's time you step back from over antipicating, wait to see where most people are going, and go with them. After all, that's the objective anyways right? Getting to the party fashionably late is better than never and you took less risk waiting. Feel free to add any other cheesy examples in the comments and blow this up.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Shadowlytics
22
In Depth Look at Continuation & Reversal Structures/Patterns Hi everyone: In this educational video, I will explain how I determine reversal and continuation structures/patterns in the market. Many have asked me to break this topic down more in depth and in live, so I hope I can address all the questions I get on this. So, in my opinion there is only 2 main type of structures/patterns: Continuation Structures Reversal Structures The key to find consistency in price action trading is to identify what kind of correction the structure is forming. Is it a reversal, or is it a continuation? Since after a correction is finished, we are likely to see an impulse move from that structure, and it's good to understand when and how likely that structure will either continue or reverse the current price. Below I will list out some of the most commonly identified reversal and continuation corrections. To me, it's not too important what people call these structures/patterns, but what you need to determine is, is it a reversal or continuation structure? Because, the market is ever evolving, and price action structures/patterns are also evolving. Sure we can learn a lot from the typical “Textbook” structure and patterns, but they often or not won't be picture perfect, and we need to utilize what else the market is telling us to determine the structures. Continuation Structure -flag -channel -triangle -pennant Reversal Structure -wedge -ascending/descending channel -Double Tops/Bottoms (M and W pattern) -Head and Shoulder Understanding how the price has been moving thus far, will give you a more clear understanding of what the structure is going to form. For example: -When we see price at the top of a HTF structure, slowing down and correcting itself up, you will be looking for reversal structure from the top, and looking for the sell. -When we see prices broken out of the HTF structure, you will be looking for a continuation structure to form and continue the buy. As always ,feel free to ask me questions or comments. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
26
Why Did The Stock Market Crash?Last Wednesday, I warned during my live show that the market could crash soon. And it did... The next day the NASDAQ lost more than 5% – and for the next few days it kept moving lower. And not to brag, but I pretty much nailed my prediction: I said the S&P would correct to 3,400 and then bounce back. Well, I was off by a few points. It went down to 3,330 and then bounced back. Close enough 🙂 So why did the stock market just have a bit of a flash crash? And will they keep crashing, or is the worst over now? In order to answer the question “why are the markets crashing,” let’s back off for a moment and discuss why stocks exist in the first place. At some point, a company may need to raise capital, and they don’t necessarily want to borrow it from the bank. So they sell parts of the company to investors, and these are shares. Let’s take a look at a company like Apple AAPL. They have issued 17.1 BILLION shares. Now let’s compare this to another company that has been incredibly popular this year, Zoom Communications (ZM). They have issued 194.76 Million shares. As you can see, that’s much less. EPS And A Market Crash? So in order to compare these 2 companies, smart people (way smarter than me) came up with the idea of creating a metric, the EPS, or Earnings Per Share. This metric tells you how much a company earns per ONE share of stock that they issue. So for AAPL that’s $3.30 and for ZOOM that’s $0.78. As you can see, AAPL is much more profitable per share that they have issued compared to ZM. No surprise. Now… what does THIS all have to do with the market crashing? Bear with me… you’ll see in a moment. So now you know about the “EPS” – the Earnings Per Share. The next key metric that you need to know is the “P/E” ratio. PE Ratio or Price Per Earnings The PE ratio is the “price per earning,” so you take the stock price and divide it by the earnings per share (the profit) of the company. This PE ratio tells you how much overvalued or undervalued a company is. Let’s take a look at the PE values of AAPL and ZM. For AAPL, the PE ratio is 35.79. So this means that the stock is trading at 35x the profits. For ZM, it is a whopping 490!!! The stock price is 490 times the earnings! That’s crazy! So let’s see what’s normal. Here’s the PE ratio of the S&P 500 companies. Right now, it’s 29.24, so almost 30. Apple’s PE ratio is 35, so it’s close to the average of the S&P 500 companies. But AAPL is a tech stock, and we know that the NASDAQ is the “tech index.” So let’s take a look at the PE Ratio of the NASDAQ. It’s 26.52 right now. Wait, what??? I thought everybody was saying that tech stocks are overvalued??? Well, it seems they are in line with the S&P 500, and it’s also in line with its historic averages. So why is everybody saying that stocks are overvalued right now? And why did the market crash? Well, there’s a simple explanation. Let’s dive a little bit deeper into the NASDAQ. There are 100 companies in the NASDAQ Index, and here’s how they are weighted. As you can see, the Top 7 companies make 50% of the weight of the index. We already looked at Apple and know that their P/E ratio is at 35 right now, and that’s AFTER the correction. So it’s still higher than the average of 26.52 but not too crazy. Let’s take a look at the others PE Ratio: 2.) AMZN: 126. 3.) MSFT: 37 4.) FB: 33 5.) GOOGL: 34 6.) GOOG: 35 7.) TSLA: 907 So as you can see, these 7 companies currently account for 50% of the NASDAQ, and are all trading higher than the average, with AMZN and TSLA being crazily overvalued. And simply put, that’s why the market crashed. At some point, the big hedge fund guys realized, “Oh man, we have some crazy stocks here in our portfolio! They are overvalued!” And so the big guys are taking some profits off the table and SELLING these heavily overvalued companies. And if they “only” sell shares of these 7 companies, then it drags the whole Nasdaq down. So will the market continue to move lower? Earlier this year, the NASDAQ lost 30%. Can this happen again, or is over after this 10% drop? Well, we had this pandemic, and NOBODY knew how it would affect our economy. So the big guys did what they usually do when there’s uncertainty: SELL and sit on a pile of cash, like Warren Buffet. But you’re not earning any money on cash. At some point, you need to invest the money again in the market. And once we had a better idea of how the virus affected our economy, the big guys started buying again. So if we look at this “flash crash” in September 2020, here’s what happened: The big guys – a.k.a SMART MONEY – noticed that some of the stocks that they purchased went up too much, and they sold them to take profits. But they can’t sit on the cash for long. They need to earn money, so they invest it again after values are back to normal. And that’s what we are seeing today: It’s called “buying the dip.” Summary: Why Did The Markets Crash? You should now be familiar with both EPS (Earnings Per Share) and the PE Ratio (Price Per Earnings). And you know that the big guys – the smart money – they’re keeping a close eye on these numbers. If they get too high, then they SELL some stocks and realize a profit, and they buy companies with a lower PE ratio. And THAT is why the markets crashed for a few days – and why they are bouncing back right now.
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
EURUSD Trade Analysis, Review, Management, and Week aheadHello everyone: In this video I went over my recent trade on EURUSD short. What is my analysis behind it, and what is my management plan. I also explained what I see in EURUSD in the up coming weeks, what are some possible scenarios that we can expect from the market. In addition, I use this chance to talk about trading personality and style on trade management. As I exit this trade due to my trading plan and style, I explain my thought process behind it. I point out that I am happy to secure profits, and exit a trade, then look for more opportunities in later on price actions and structures development. Its important to know that every traders are different, and there is no right or wrong. Its what suits you as a trader. As always, feel free to ask me questions or comments. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
44
My Go To Setups/Entries in TradingHi everyone: Many traders have asked me to give a more in depth look into what a typical setup that I would be looking for, what are some possible entries that I will take. So I figure I will make an educational video and analysis breakdown on a few trades that fits my trading plan, risk management, and trading strategies/style. I will go over 3 setups/entries that I usually look for in the market. I will explain what I want to see from price action and structures before considering a possible entry. Entry #1: Double Top/Bottom -potential double top/bottom on the higher time frame -corrective structures forming to push price near the area -enter the breakout or reversal Entry #2: Continuation Correction -break of the higher time frame continuation correction structure -price formed lower time frame corrections -enter the reversal, breakout, or correction after breakout Entry #3: Top/Bottom of structure -price is at the top/bottom of the higher time frame structure -price form some sort of correctional structures within the larger structure -enter the breakout, or correction after breakout As always, feel free to ask me questions and comments. Thank you
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
7