Factor Forex Spread into Trades: A Guide to Bid & Ask PricesHave you ever found yourself in a situation where trade was closed out before reaching your intended stop loss level, or where the market reaches your profit target but the trade never closes in your favour?
It can be frustrating and confusing, leaving you wondering what went wrong. You may even start to blame your broker or the market itself, thinking they are conspiring against you. But the truth is, it's not the market or your broker - it's you.
The key issue is that you're not taking the market spread into account when setting your trade levels. A professional trader must always factor in the spread to avoid inconsistencies and mishaps in their trades. In this post, we will discuss the difference between the BID and ASK price, understand what the market spread is and show you how to factor it into your trade levels for a smoother and more successful trading experience.
As a professional trader, it is crucial to understand the BID and ASK prices. Failure to do so can result in costly mistakes when setting up trades. When placing a trade, these two prices are crucial to consider.
The BID Price
The BID price is something that every trader should have a good understanding of.
The BID price is the price that is displayed on the charts, for example, if the USD/JPY pair was displaying 110.00 on your chart, then the BID price is 110.00.
The BID price is the price that you deal with every time you press the sell button. This is because it is the price at which your broker is willing to purchase the currency from you. In other words, you are selling the currency to your broker at the BID price.
The ASK Price
The ASK price can be a little more complex, as it is often the cause of unexpected outcomes in trade orders.
Typically, you do not see the ASK price when you have your charts open, it is only visible when you open your trade order window or enable that option in your trading software.
The ASK price is the price at which your broker is willing to sell you the currency, and it is a completely different price than what you see on the charts. The ASK price is what you deal with every time the BUY button is pressed and it is typically more expensive than the BID price you are viewing on the chart.
Therefore, the ASK price is the price your broker is "asking" for to sell the currency. The BID price may be 1.45000 on the charts but your broker's ASK price may be something like 1.45030. This is where the concept of calculated Forex spread comes into play.
How to Incorporate Spread into Trade Planning
When placing trade orders, it is important to remember two key principles. These principles must be applied every time you enter and exit a trade, so it is essential to memorize them or keep them in a visible place for reference.
~ When going long, the market is entered at the ASK price and exited at the BID price.
~ When going short, the market is entered at the BID price and exited at the ASK price.
For instance, let's say you want to set a pending order to go long when USD/CAD reaches 1.30000 on the chart, you don’t simply place the pending order entry price at 1.30000. Remember the rule for long trades, you ‘enter the market at the ASK price because the ASK price is what your broker is willing to sell you the currency for. Whenever you are the buyer – the ASK price is quoted.
If your broker's spread is roughly 2 pips for USD/CAD, when the market reaches 1.30000 your broker will be "asking" for 1.30020.
So when the price on the chart reaches 1.30000 (this is the BID price), your broker will be willing to sell the currency for 1.30020 (when the spread is 2 pips).
Therefore, if you place your pending order with an entry price of 1.30000, your trade will not be triggered because your broker is not willing to sell you the currency for that price at that point in time. In this case, you would have to wait for the BID price to reach 1.29980, at which point the broker's ASK price would be 1.30000 and your trade will be filled.
In order to ensure that the trade is triggered when the BID price reaches 1.30000, you must factor in the market spread and set your entry order at 1.30020.
Determining Stop Loss and Exit Prices for Long Positions
Determining stop loss and exit levels for long positions is made relatively simple by utilizing the BID price. The BID price, which is the price at which your broker is willing to buy the currency back from you, reflects the prices that are commonly obtainable from the Interbank Market.
When exiting a trade, the currency is sold back to the broker at the BID price. The BID price is the one that is visible on the charts, and there is no additional commission to be taken into account. Therefore, stop and target levels can be set directly off the BID prices displayed on the charts, making the process straightforward.
Setting Up Short Trades
When executing short trades, the process is reversed. Short trades are entered at the BID price, so the price displayed on the chart is used for the short entry order.
However, the stop loss and target prices for short trades must take into account the Forex spread, as the trade will be exited at the ASK price, which is typically higher than the BID price due to the broker's commission.
To ensure that stop loss levels are not triggered prematurely, the Forex spread must be calculated and added to the stop loss value. This will allow the trade to move freely to its stop-loss level before being closed.
Additionally, the Forex spread must also be factored in for the target price levels of short trades. The target price should be found on the chart, the spread added, and that value should be used as the target price level for every short trade order.
By following the proper procedures for calculating and factoring in the Forex spread, you can now confidently place trade orders and enter the Forex market in an effective manner. This will prevent frustration and disappointment by ensuring that pending orders are executed correctly and that trades exit at the intended price levels.
Risk Management
Learn Risk to Reward Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Hey traders,
Planning your every trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits.
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a risk to reward ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, risk to reward ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips with a potential loss of 150 pips.
Risk to reward ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
If the ratio is less than 1, it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
Trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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I would lie to you that I am very special!This is an event that has spread all over the real and virtual space these days
I am better than you, more beautiful than you, smarter than you
But the reality is something else
But we know the truth!
You and I are human, we have our merits and demerits, we all lied, we were all kind, we were both good and bad!
we are equal ..
With this introduction, I wanted to get here that we in the financial markets are involved with an equal scale of types of risk
It means that if I am facing some risks, you are also facing almost the same risks!
So, of course, if we are profitable but have a low win rate, or vice versa, we have a high win rate, but we may not be profitable in the long term.
Accepting this risk is the most basic step of entering the market.
I think money management and risk management are the only keys to success
Our learnings about technical and fundamental analysis only play a role in reducing or increasing the risk of our trade!
Black Swan Event: The Biggest Crypto Market Risk!In today’s article, we will be discussing a risk known as Black Swan Event. Now what is the Black Swan and why it is considered as the most unexpected event in the course of any economic crisis is the greater factor to be discussed.
The most unexpected event that has the maximum possibility to occur in the market is called Black Swan, this term was first coined by NYU professor and economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
The main attributes that shape the possibilities of Black Swan events:
Unpredictability
Potential Severities
Widespread impact
According to Taleb:
A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
They are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
Some believe that diversification may offer some protection when a black swan event does occur.
Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.
Extrapolating, using statistics based on observations of past events is not helpful for predicting black swans, and might even make us more vulnerable to them.
The last key aspect of a black swan is that as a historically important event, observers are keen to explain it after the fact and speculate as to how it could have been predicted. Such retrospective speculation, however, does not actually help to predict future black swans as these can be anything from a credit crisis to a war.
What is the impact on Institutional markets?
We know that somehow, we can use normal factors of prediction and probability over mass numbers of people like the result predicting based on Normal distribution curve, for such things, even the extrapolation method is not working.
Hence Black Swan can take the market in any form that is not predefined, that can attack a market with several forms like crashing of prices and regulatory risk of digital exchanges.
What are the two different types of Black Swan risk?
Black Swan occurs within two types one is the positive impact and another one is a negative impact, now the inability to predict the accurate possibilities is the driving force behind the execution of the Black Swan event.
Any clampdown on the trading of cryptocurrencies and other digital money can directly crash the prices of other currencies.
The crackdown of Cryptocurrency exchanges by any third parties or other factors can also be counted as the Black Swan effect, many particular exogenous events can be forced to occur like:
Inverse Volatility
The crackdown of Crypto exchanges
Regulatory risk of Crypto exchanges
Low liquidity and low trading volume
Having said that, 2022 has been the year of the “Black Swan” throughout the world of cryptocurrency. From the fall of LUNA to the insolvency of 3AC, Celsius, FTX and now BlockFi, the market has taken major hits in value and credibility. Each one of these events seemingly was viewed as a once in a lifetime event.
To sum up, the Black Swan event is described in the following summarized manner:
This event is so rare that it has many unknown possibilities occurring suddenly.
Also, the impact is so huge that it can have a catastrophic effect.
The hindsight conclusion if the prediction comes as true.
Conclusion
At last, one could conclude that many events could turn into a Black Swan in crypto trading such as, Network Congestion where everyone is rushing to have Ethereum and it subsequently raises the price of gas.
In this case, when Black Swan occurs, the problem increases tenfold times and also this affects the liquidation process and also low-value transfers can simply attack the blockchain system.
If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment!
Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
7 Reasons why Elite Traders Crush the CompetitionHello TradingView world,
I have been trading for almost 15 years and have learned some serious lessons about trading and the markets. I have also been fortunate enough to interact with many great traders over that time that have helped me tremendously, however I still struggled for a long while and wondered why I wasn’t making the progress I desperately wanted to make.
I thought just like everyone else, that if I found the perfect trading strategy, all of my problems would vanish and profits would rain down from the sky like salt bae letting salt drip down off his forearm.
Well guess what happened? I ACTUALLY DID FIND IT.
In fact, my analysis in the market was so damn good that in 2013 I was invited to speak on a worldwide webinar hosted by Daily-FX which was then owned by FXCM.
I’d have a 50 pip stop with a 500+ pip price target and I was nailing the trades left and right, so this was the reason I was invited on. I was working at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during this time and I ended up leaving that job to trade full time that same year.
Things went smoothly for a while. I partied… A LOT. Did all kinds of reckless and stupid things with my time and money and I ultimately lost it all by 2015. I pondered for a long time about what happened and once I removed my ego and stubbornness, I figured out that what makes a trader great has nothing to do with the outside and has everything to do with the inside.
This is the TRUE secret of trading success. It’s all about YOU and how YOU approach trading. There is so much more to the story but without further hesitation, based on what I have learned from other great traders and have personally learned through brutal hard lessons, this is why Elite traders crush everyone else in the market and if you begin employing these lessons in your own trading, I can guarantee that you will see a dramatic change in your results.
#1 - ELITE TRADERS ARE LEAGUES ABOVE YOU IN PATIENCE
Everyone gets into trading for one thing and one thing only; to make money and to make as much of it as possible. One thing that the majority of traders do is that they also want to do it in the FASTEST way possible. This is where they screw up but is it any surprise that this is the case? I mean look all around you in terms of social media (Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, etc.) it’s all over the place with people touting “Watch me turn $1,000 into $10,000 in just a few days!” … This gets views, it gets attention and it encourages other traders to continuously take on massive risks in order to achieve this.
Is it possible to do? YES, because many traders (Including myself) have done it but what does it also do? It creates detrimental habits that keep you in this mindset of turning a small account into a large account quickly and then that one day comes when you take on massive risk on a trade that looks “good” but ends up going violently against you for a huge loss or COMPLETE destruction of your account.
Another factor is that the majority of traders want to be in the market ALL of the time. They can’t resist staying out and staying flat during times of uncertainty or when the charts aren’t clear enough to validate putting their capital at risk. Elite traders can wait hours, days and even WEEKS before putting on another trade because they understand, their trading opportunity is not yet clear and they rather wait as long as possible in order to enter the market at the most optimal time and conditions.
Think about it; do you want to be in the market on a consistent basis? Are you able to wait a few days or a few weeks before putting on a new trade? It’s a very difficult thing for many traders to do while Elite traders have mastered the game of patience to their advantage. It’s not a matter of how long is the next trade going to take to develop? Rather, I’ll take the next trade when the optimal conditions are met regardless of how long it takes.
#2 - ELITE TRADERS KNOW THEIR OWN WEAKNESSES
Everyone has weaknesses whether we like to admit it or not. Some traders are severely impatient, some have a problem with risk management, some have a problem with making impulsive trades and become reckless, some have a problem with over analyzing their charts or trying to look at multiple markets at the same time, etc. Most traders either try to suppress them or choose to ignore them completely and this causes many to struggle and stay frustrated.
Have you ever thought to yourself, “Shit, why did I do that!?” or “Why did I get out when I should have stayed in” or “Why did I chase it! I knew I should have stayed out” … There is a weakness there that you have not learned to master or work on improving it. Even if you finally acknowledge it and try to write it down or post it on your wall by your trading desk… You STILL end up making that mistake and frustration takes over.
Elite traders through trial and error have learned to master their INTERNAL trading character. They know what triggers them and have found a way to stop it in its tracks so that mistakes are kept under control. They also understand that when these weaknesses start to creep up on them, they can identify WHY it’s happening and talk themselves out of it.
For example, if the market is rising and it looks like it’s going to get away from them, they understand that by chasing after it, the market could turn around and leave them with an unnecessary loss or trap them in a position that they should have not gotten into in the first place. Their attitude is “The market did not give me the optimal trading opportunity that I wanted therefore I will wait. Let the market do whatever it’s going to do, I don’t care. I only care about my optimal trading opportunities” This tie’s in with reason #1 (Patience). They will not let ANYTHING force them into trades they shouldn’t be in.
#3 - ELITE TRADERS FOCUS ON ONE MARKET/PAIR/SECTOR
This is not only true of trading but life in general, focusing on one thing and mastering that one thing to become great at it. There are a multitude of instruments and markets to trade and it gives us traders the freedom to choose where we’d like to put our capital to work but as many of us know, too much choice can actually be a bad thing. When it comes to the Forex market, we have many pairs we can work with and that can actually be a problem.
Everyone has a watch-list of pairs that they want to trade but is that causing you more trading struggles for you or keeping you confused? Whether the answer is yes or no, why are you doing that? And the answer is most likely because you believe it presents more trading opportunities but that is not always the right way to go about things. Each pair moves and reacts differently during certain market conditions and what works well on the EUR/USD may not work on the GBP/JPY. While the EUR/USD moves at a more stable pace and a big day would be considered a 1% move, the GBP/JPY can become wildly explosive and relentless when it comes to market volatility.
Elite traders know this and they stick to ONE thing and become a master at it. I personally stick to the EUR/USD and that is MORE than enough to make profitable trades on. Elite traders do not divert to other markets or other pairs to try and make more profits but they lock down and focus on that one pair and crush it. It’s not common for the majority of traders to do this because they feel that they will be missing out on other trading opportunities but are they really? Or are they just finding multiple ways to take losses?
In order to trade this way, it would require the ability to stay incredibly patient but it would allow for you to stay away from multiple charts and remain disciplined while not putting your capital at risk and avoiding impulse/emotional trades.
This is not common but then again… this is why Elite traders do it and the majority does not.
#4 - ELITE TRADERS PREFER A LONGER TERM OUTLOOK
Just look at the screenshots of charts scattered on trading forums, social media or any other discussion outlet, more times than not everyone’s looking at the 1 Minute all through the 4 Hour time frames. You’ll find a few daily charts here and there and even less Weekly+ charts. Most traders want to be in the market every day and this is why Day trading is so enticing, it gives them a reason to log in, open up their charts and look for trading opportunities to make money. That’s a Mistake.
You’re probably noticing that the previous 3 reasons tie into this reason and that’s because this is just another manifestation of lack of patience or inability to focus on one thing. Short term charts give the impression that there will be more moves to get in and out and not staying in a position overnight. Yes, I get that some traders out there prefer to just get into the market and then be done with it at the end of the day but more times than not, you’ll end up making impulsive trades that creates a string of losses if you don’t have your emotions in check.
Elite traders like to look at the “whole picture” and prefer looking at the daily charts and up. Since longer time frames take time to develop, this is perfectly fine for them as it gives them more time to prepare for the upcoming trade and analyze the levels, they want to take a position and take profit. Once they enter a position, they set their stop and let the market work for them.
They don’t need to check their positions multiple times per day since they know the market will take its time doing what it’s going to do and therefore have time for other activities in their lives or businesses.
#5 - ELITE TRADERS VIEW TRADING FROM A BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE
“How much can I make per day”, “How much can I make per week” or “How much can I make per month” … This is what you’ll usually hear from the majority of traders but how many times have you heard “We’ll see how performance looks at the end of the Quarter”? I’m willing to bet, not many. There is a lot of hype about how much can be made in one day or week but trading is not about just one day, one week or one month, it’s about the long game and how results look over time.
Some Elite traders even go as far as looking at profit-loss on a yearly basis but because market conditions change throughout the year, reviewing how performance looks like at the end of the quarter is preferable. There is no rush to try to make a gain at the end of the day, week or month. Spacing out P/L review allows opportunities to both develop and play out especially if the market is trending.
Elite traders don’t mess around in the market either, this is not a game or hobby for them while many amateurs in the market don’t take it as seriously as you would think. They know that the market is a battlefield and the other side of the trade won’t hesitate for a Nano-second to take their money. They understand that trading should be treated with the same care as running a business and properly deploying their capital out into the market is essential in bringing back even more capital for future trading opportunities that yield larger profits.
Although trading is now offered to the masses and anyone can pretty much open a brokerage account and begin to trade, there are millions of traders that are misinformed and approach the market incorrectly and unprofessionally. “But, I’m not looking to trade professionally, I just want to trade casually” sure, that is completely fine however guess who’s going to eat you alive in the markets? That’s right, the Elite traders who do take things seriously and professionally.
#6 - ELITE TRADERS PROTECT THEIR CAPITAL AT ALL TIMES
In the boxing world, what is one of the warnings referees issue to the fighter’s right before the fight begins? “Keep your hands up and Protect yourself at all times!” and for good reason, right? So that they do not put their hands down and get a crushing hard punch to the head that knocks them out cold. It doesn’t matter how well you trained or for how long you’ve trained because one lazy mistake can cost you the fight, in some cases brutally.
If you’ve been in the trading scene for any length of time, you have read or heard it countless times “manage your risk, manage your risk, manage your risk!” but how many traders ACTUALLY do it? You’d be surprised at how many do not do it at all because it’s painful to do. Painful? How so?... Well, it requires one to make small gains over time instead of putting the pedal to the metal and use high leverage on one single trade. That’s very difficult for the majority of traders to do because that means no “Account Flips” or trying to hit a homerun trade every single time and let’s face it, everyone is trying to get “rich” quickly.
Elite traders know that just one mistake of not practicing sound money management by either not using a stop loss or using too much leverage can be extremely dangerous to their account and they know that it’s just not worth it. On another note, they understand that following risk control is instilling good and strong habits for their subconscious mind and it will carry along for the rest of their careers if they just stick to that simple principle.
If there’s one major reason the majority of traders fail while a small percentage of traders make money consistently, it’s a lack of risk management and account/capital protection.
Before you step into the unforgiving arena (Forex) be sure to protect your account at ALL times! Keep your "Guard" up and play defense!
#7 - ELITE TRADERS AVOID DISTRACTIONS AND NOISE
This is a pretty interesting and controversial one. It can be difficult to ignore the distractions and noise because us traders want to be part of a group or community so that we can share ideas and forecasts along with everyone else but sometimes, you’ve got to be careful with this. You may have an idea or outlook that goes against what others think is going to happen and it could get you off track. You may have experienced this a few times where you believe the market is going to go in one direction and others share the complete opposite view which then causes you to doubt your analysis. You end up cutting the position too early for fear of being wrong and ultimately the market goes in the direction you thought it would and you’re left frustrated.
Distractions can also come in the form of upcoming economic data such as the Federal Reserve coming out with Interest Rates or its chairman Jerome Powell talking about certain economic projections. Volatility spikes up and it sucks you into the hype but if you have a sound trading strategy and rules, you may have noticed that even during high volatility, the market still respects order on the charts. It just moves as a faster pace.
I have personally experienced this through my years of trading, in fact a recent memory comes to mind in 2020. I was invited by an online friend to a private Meta trading group and I wanted to offer some help and insight into what I knew, so I shared a screenshot of my outlook of the EUR/USD going forward.
It was a powerful chart pattern I had seen countless times on the weekly chart and the EUR/USD was trading around 1.0850. Once I shared my screenshot calling for the Euro to make a strong 1000+ pip move and trend towards 1.2000 to 1.2200, some other group member immediately called my analysis a joke and that chart patterns were garbage and useless.
I was going to retaliate back but I thought to myself, this is childish, unprofessional and really unproductive, so I immediately left that group. My friend apologized and said the other guy had a chip on his shoulder because he was former banker for a massive global investment bank (I won’t say which one but I can guarantee you, everyone knows it). I appreciated the apology and left it at that. I the end, all that mattered to me was that as the months went by, the EUR/USD did in fact trend towards the exact projected price levels. That was a lesson for me to avoid detrimental opinions from others.
Elite traders know about this type of noise and are sure to remove any of that from their trading. This is why many stay “undercover” and you don’t really hear about them. They stay under the radar and just do what they do and do it well.
The overall lesson here is that a community should be about helping others and uplifting them, even when they’re wrong. No matter how great a trader is, he/she still deals with losses and nobody is ever correct 100% of the time. Trading is already difficult, so by encouraging and helping others become better at trading the markets, everyone improves as a whole.
Conclusion
There you have it, just some of the basics of what Elite traders do and what has transformed my own trading results tremendously. We all know that there are a variety of ways to approach the market but if there is one takeaway from all of this is that, Top Level traders have learned to master themselves and how they mentally approach trading. It’s actually quite simple and straight forward however it can be hard to implement in real time but that doesn’t mean that it cannot be done and transform your own trading. I wish you the best in your trading journey. I personally know it can be VERY tough but it's well worth it. Keep at it and never give up.
How to never break your Trading Account?Follow We Trade Waves 4 Golden Trading Rules!
1) Do Not Over-Risk
Big Risk = big loss = potential big profit | Small Risk = small loss = potential big profit (Read this again)
2) Do Not Over-Trade
Successful trading is not about trading often, it's about being selective and trade correctly!
3) Do Not Trade Without Stop Loss
Check GBPAUD, CHFJPY, GBPJPY Daily chart and you will see market sometimes move thousand pips within minutes!
4) Never Ever Add To Losing Position
While you are thinking that you will break even faster which is true! you will be doubling, tripling your risk at the same time!
Print above rules and keep them in front of you while trading
DISCLAIMER: We Trade Waves is not a signal service. Instead, it involves sharing our perspective and detailed analysis based on our unique wave analysis concept. We cannot be held responsible for any financial gain or loss that may result from following our analysis.
Trade with care
WTW Team
Market Cycles: What They Are and the Psychology Behind Them
All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction.
📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity.
Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise.
They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk.
In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage. However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency, as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side. It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic.
In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage. The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon."
But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom).
Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
Strategy Coding E01: Adding a custom Trailing-StopIn my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but your exit strategy is terrible, you my not make any profit.
Concepts we will cover in this episode:
Integrating an indicator value as a trailing stop.
Lowering the trailing stop sensitivity by using the Average True Range (ATR).
Customizing the ATR value.
Brief introduction to 'modules'.
10 Golden rules of investing Investments are neither complex nor difficult. There is a set of golden rules that help investors stay on track to achieve their ultimate financial goals. When it comes to money management, investments play a key role in creating wealth. At first, it can be difficult for you to decide which product to choose, where to invest, how much to keep, and so on. But as you continue, you will get a better understanding of how the investment market works.
Keep in mind that no matter how disciplined you are and no matter what rules you follow, investing comes with risks and you can still get back less than you invested.
Here is our summary of the 10 Rules Every Investor Should Know:
1. Do your own research
Don't blindly trust what someone says on the internet, make sure it's backed up by multiple credible sources. Most people are biased about the cryptocurrencies they own, so naturally they can't say anything but good things about the coins in their portfolio while attacking the ones that aren't. Do your best to understand the positives and negatives of cryptocurrencies and develop an unbiased opinion.
2. Set clear goals
Knowing your financial goals and the time frame for which you are investing can help you stick to your strategy. For example, if you have long-term goals, such as saving money for your children's education or for a personal retirement that may be decades away, you may be less tempted to invest before that time.
3. Never invest in something you don't understand
Before investing in any investment, take the time to research it thoroughly so you understand exactly what is involved and what the risks are. Funds, for example, issue a Key Investor Information Document (KIID) or a Key Information Document (KID) that explains the fund's main functions and fees. You must read this before investing. If you are investing in individual projects, make sure you know what the company is doing and how it plans to make money in the future. In the cryptocurrency market, projects also have various documentation, white paper, roadmap. Before investing, you need to study all this and subscribe to the social networks of the project in order to understand the general mood of the project and investors and be aware of the latest news.
4. Don't put all your eggs in one basket
Today, this rule is more relevant than ever. We all know the saying "don't put all your eggs in one basket", but it's especially important to apply this rule when investing. Spreading your money across a range of different asset types and geographies means you won't be too dependent on one type of investment or region. This means that if one of them performs poorly, some of the other investments may make up for those losses, although there are no guarantees.
5. The greater the potential return, the higher the level of risk
The prospect of higher returns may be attractive, but there is usually a greater risk of losing funds. Think carefully about your approach to risk. You may be more comfortable choosing less risky investments, even if returns are likely to be lower. However, remember that no investment is without risk, and there is always a chance that you can return less than you invested. If, nevertheless, the temptation to enter a highly profitable and high-risk asset eats you up from the inside - invest, however, with a very small part of your total deposit.
6. Long-term investments are not always accompanied by high returns.
First of all, it is necessary to understand for ourselves what profitability we want to receive from a company or project. Reading the documentation and roadmap, we do not assume that the company will exist for decades. First of all, we argue that with due efforts, the capitalization of the project can double. Yes, it may take several years. However, the goal should be expressed in terms of percentage of profit, and not in terms of the investment period. After all, it may happen that the value of assets will return to the price values of a decade ago or, even worse, the company will simply close.
7. If something seems too good to be true, it usually is.
Beware of highly speculative investments that seem too good to be true, don't follow the crowd and invest (or sell) just because other people do. For example, many investors invested in the digital currency bitcoin in the second half of 2017, when its price rose, but its value fell by half in a month. In mid-December 2017, Bitcoin was trading at almost $20,000, but by mid-January 2018, it had fallen below $10,000. Those who at that moment could not cope with stress and sold “at the bottom” lost
A fortune.
8. Income reinvestment or cost averaging can help increase overall returns
The DCA strategy helps to avoid asset volatility and allows you not to constantly monitor a company or project. If you are not looking for a quick return on your investment, then you may want to consider reinvesting your funds to buy more of your investment, which will potentially increase in value and increase your overall profit. Simply put, your earnings also generate a return, which is known as compound interest. However, keep in mind that reinvesting income rather than receiving it as cash means you could lose it or see its value drop. If any income you receive is automatically reinvested – for example, if you invest in shares directly and subscribe to Automatic Dividend Reinvestment (ADR) – you will also not be able to choose the price at which you will buy any additional shares, so it can be low or high.
9. Review your portfolio and rebalance
Markets are constantly changing, and so are your investments. You will be investing for many years, so it is important to carry out regular checks to stay on top of your money. Sometimes your initial asset allocation can get out of balance, so you need to rebalance it. For example, the market can fluctuate in different directions, effectively changing the percentage of your investment. Do you want to work on maintaining a percentage that will help you reach your goals? If you don't take action, you can have a lot more of one asset class than another when the market fluctuates.
As part of the rebalancing process, you buy or sell certain investments to return to your desired asset allocation. This can help prevent a portfolio from being too aggressive when the goal is to minimize risk. In addition, by rebalancing you will avoid having too many assets of a certain class and restore your portfolio back to the original set of assets.
10. Don't try to time the market
In an ideal world, you could buy investments just before they appreciate and sell before they fall. However, no one knows which direction the stock markets will move next, so trying to predict market ups and downs can result in you buying or selling at the most inopportune times. Buying and holding investments can help you stay committed to your investments for the long term by avoiding panic decisions when the markets are volatile.
If you want to start investing, use these golden rules. By using these simple investment strategies, you can make your money work for you and take care of your future. If you think that the potential reward is not worth the risk, then investing is not for you.
DEMONS OF TRADING | Don't Think Like This
Have you ever wondered what helped all those professionals of Wall Street become successful? You will be surprised, but the key to their reached heights is hidden in their mistakes. Yes, that is right. Most professional and successful traders made many mistakes before they got to the top.
Making mistakes is ordinary and sometimes even necessary because you learn when you make them. The crucial point of this idea is never to repeat those mistakes because some errors may cost us a fortune. That is why we gathered 10 most common trading mistakes to prevent you from faults and losses.
Little preparation
Entry to the Forex market is relatively easy, so people have a light-minded attitude towards trading knowledge. Beginner traders, especially, think that theory is not a big deal, and they will be able to build it up without a peep. However, it does not work this way.
Miscalculating the risk/reward ratio
For some reason, many traders believe that higher win trades are more profitable than lower ones. Sometimes, this idea even gets paid off, and due to blind luck, trades, where the potential risk exceeds the reward, benefit. However, in most cases, such trades are a sure way to lose money in the longer term.
Avoiding risk management
Risk management should be the core of your trading because it helps cut down losses. Trading without risk management is like skydiving without a parachute.
Neglecting market events
Relevant market news is essential as economic events influence the direction of trading during the day. So, if you are not aware of the financial reports or earnings, you might skip the volatility.
To win the game, you need to develop your thinking and how you participate in the game. You are in a market trading against professional traders. Your goal is to think like a professional. That is the only way to survive in this game.
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
Trading With Robots (EA) | Your Pros & Cons 🤖
Hey traders,
Trading robots are commonly perceived as a sort of magic button. Once it is clicked, the system starts trading automagically, generating consistent profits. What can be better?
However, many pitfalls are hidden behind its simplicity.
In this educational article, we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of trading with Expert Advisers (EA) / robots.
Let's start with the positives ➕:
The first major advantage of EA is the fact that it works 24/7, without delays and coffee breaks. Once it is launched, it will keep working till you stop it.
The second advantage of EA is that it is non-emotional and objective.
It strictly follows the algorithm and rules determined by a program. It is not influenced by psychological biases, making each trade extremely precise.
The third strength of trading robots is the processing speed and its limitless scalability. EA can monitor dozens of trading instruments on multiple time frames simultaneously, not missing any bit of information. Hence, it requires less time for decision-making and trade execution.
The fourth advantage of EA is the simplicity of its backtesting. Once the algorithm is written and the order execution rules are described, they can be quickly and easily tested on a historical data.
So far, sounds like a panacea, right?! But now, let's discuss the negatives ➖:
Similar to any software, app or program, the EA is vulnerable to bugs, and may occasionally lag. Therefore, it requires a constant oversight and maintenance. In order to fix the bugs and maintain that, a high level of experience is required.
One should have the advanced skills both in coding and in trading.
Moreover, admitting the fact that the market is constantly changing and evolving, one should regularly update the EA and adapt it.
In comparison to humans, trading robots are not learning, they do not evolve themselves.
Leaving the robot without supervision, updates and patches, it may blow the entire account in a glimpse of an eye without any embarrassment.
One more important thing to add about EA, is the fact that it is technical analysis based. For now, there are no solutions on the market that would allow the integration of fundamentals in the algorithm.
Unfortunately, most of the traders overestimate the strengths of trading robots, completely neglecting its obvious weaknesses.
If you decide to apply EA in trading, always consider its pros and cons that we discuss in the post.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Trading Psychology 101 | FEAR (1/2)A bit of a different video for you..
Thought i should talk about a sensitive subject here..
Psychology in trading and the key factors that you may need to finally BECOME a better trader..
In this part, I talk about FEAR and FOMO. Also, I added a more sensitive part, which is feeling burnt out and ways to overcome that.
Hope you find this helpful!
Heads or Tails?What does TRADE have in common with heads and tails?
Well, many use simple randomness to define whether they should buy or sell and this is directly linked to heads or tails, but the point I want to address is the following: a coin with two sides has a 50% chance of falling either on one side or on the other, either heads or tails, but if you decide to toss the coin 10 times up, it could land 10 times heads or even 7 times, and at that moment you might wonder, but the probability is not 50%, shouldn't we have 5 times heads and 5 times tails? Yes, but the short-term randomness makes the low probability happen! Now if you toss that coin 10,000 times, the law of large numbers is likely to make the 50% probability dominate the outcome!
But where does this fit into TRADE?
Basically in all operating models, if you operate you have a hit rate allied with a ratio between risk and return, these two things are directly linked, many seek a higher hit rate, others seek more PayOff, but regardless of your profile, from your approach you have to know that a model in the short term does not become a winner or a loser, you need a historical basis of how your approach behaves and then, yes, decide to operate using this strategy.
Many say that with a strategy with 2x your risk and a hit of 50% you will be profitable, statistically this is true, but are you willing to faithfully follow this model even taking CONSECUTIVE STOPS?
We should be, but those who trade know that a sequence of Stops does not generate a pleasant feeling! And it's precisely that feeling that can leave you in the middle of the way!
See below the SHARP index many do not know, but I will present here, what is the SHARP index? The Sharpe Ratio is used to show to what extent the return on an investment compensates the investor for taking risks on his investment. (I recommend using it in your models or in your performance reports).
When using the formula you find a result called SQN
See the example of heads or tails in practice, with a positive risk/return ratio
See that only with time you will be able to validate a winning strategy, and in the middle of the way it is possible that you will have some Stops, and this should refine your way of operating, in order to find points to be adjusted, many books define that time takes you are the excellence, but the biggest illusion that the market generates is that of getting rich fast, contradictory isn't it, this makes the journey of a trader with frustrations and disbelief difficult.
But few are willing to go through this journey, as if that were not enough, you will find that there are no facilities, many preach that you must choose between Access Fee or PayOff most of the time, these they are opposite characteristics in objective models, but the secret is simple!
You need to find balance
See this great example, most people who operate the market have already learned about the EMA 9 or MA 9 anyway, it's an easy model to learn that promises good profits, but when it hits, but what few told you is that it rarely hits ! Even so, it can be a profitable model in several assets.
In my tests, the model has an average success rate of 31%, unfortunately few people have the emotional energy to use this, since they give up even before the model reverses the capital curve to the positive side.
See this model in the same example of the difference between few trades vs many trades
Here it is clear the importance of time and consistency in defining a model and faithfully executing it!
So what do we learn from this?
First: The law of large numbers rules the market.
Second: As much as the PayOff is high, you may not have your emotions trained enough to withstand a losing streak, many will say "But in this model I'm losing with a spoon and winning with a bucket", that seems to make sense, but in reality practice, it's more painful than it looks.
Third: Be willing to operate your way, know that your emotional profile is unique, so use techniques and refine your market reading, beware of false simplicity or the highest degree of complexity to operate the market, be willing to see the that makes sense to you and metric it to use with confidence.
Fourth: Trading the market is like learning to walk, you need help at first, but then you need to fall over your falls and gain balance, it's the same here, you'll make mistakes, but that's the only way you'll learn.
I hope I helped you with this topic, if you liked it, leave your BOOST to support this idea, and also leave it here in the comments if you are from the PayOff team or the Hit Rate.
How to double your small ($250) trading account trading Bitcoin How to Double your Small ($250) Trading Account Trading Bitcoin
I started a degen account with $250 and almost doubled it in 4 days making about 6 trades. This strategy is not Financial advice and I'm only illustrating what I have learnt trading this way. This is the first video in the series and I'll be continuing the series , updating you on progress, winners, losses, my trading journal and some live trading, so make sure to Sub, like comment and share.
I show you how I entered my current trade, where I am looking to take profits and show you my pnl on Bybit.
Not Financial Advice. DYOR. Papertrade before trading with real money.
Hope you have a profitable trading day!
Shawn
How to auto-execute TradingView alerts on exchangeIf you have your own strategy in TradingView, you can set up opening trades on the exchange in a couple of clicks.
Next, you’ll see an example of how we set up alerts in 5 minutes, and how orders were opened and closed on the exchange. To do this, we will create alerts and a bot for alerts on our platform.
Step 1. Set the alert parameters.
Go to our terminal, select the Algotrading section → Trading Robots → Add strategy button.
You will see an interface for creating and customizing your bot, where you need to perform the Basic settings and proceed to setting the parameters for sending signals to the system.
To do this, go to the Sending signals block.
The TradingView signal source is already selected.
Copy the Request URL.
On the right side of the window, we see the code with the request parameters. You can add other parameters with checkboxes, we have added Stop Loss and Take Profit. Copy and save the code.
Step 2. Launch the bot.
Next, find the created bot in the All robots section and launch it in Work trading mode according to the manuals in the terminal.
Step 3. Set up an alert in TradingView.
Go to TradingView, open the Alerts section and set up an alert, for example, for opening an order (Buy) based on a simple indicator - in our case, Crossing.
Paste the code that we got in Step 1 in the Message field.
Paste the request URL we got in Step 1 in the Webhook URL field and Save.
The alert has been successfully created and is active on TradingView in the Alerts section.
Step 4. Monitor the orders.
The alert triggers and ... Go to the Alerts log, where we see a notification about executed alerts from TradingView.
We can check in the bot on our platform, open the Trades tab - we see open orders.
And we see that alert orders are open on the exchange.
Since we set Stop Loss and Take Profit, the orders were not only opened, but also closed. In the platform we can find deals, on the exchange we can find orders with the Sell parameter.
We hope that now trading with TradingView will become even easier. We will release new and more detailed articles for you on using webhooks so that the strategy created here works 24/7 without your participation.
All Four ICT Killzones plus times on one chartJust wanted to put all four ICT Kill Zones to see:
All are 2 hours in length, except London open kill zone which is 3 hours in length.
AUDCAD 15 minute chart today worked out great related, all four kill zones could have made profits for a traders if done right, which Time & Price.
I do not trade AC during London Kill Zone related to both sides not being in session- Sydney would have just closed & NY has not opened yet.
The chart is just visually showing you exact time - all times or kill zones are NY session times ( you would need to translate them to your time- or like me I just put my charts on NY times (lower right), why? because you hopefully know the time it is, where you live... lol
Wish you best,
Keep forex trading as simple as you can, so you can enjoy life and keep in balance of body, mind & soul.
Do That BEFORE You Start REAL ACCOUNT Trading
Here is the list of thing that you should learn in advance before you start trading on a real account.
1) Open a demo (practice) account and learn to execute trades without making errors
2) Study the methods of great traders and financial minds throughout history - Jesse Livermore, W D Gann, Charles Dow/Dow theory, Paul Tudor Jones,Richard Wyckoff.
Learn their methods and employ them. Learn their mistakes and avoid them.
3) Focus on learning, not winning. Forget about money and profits. Think about developing a winning strategy and a winning trading mindset. Always be open-minded. Observe. Be flexible.
4) I recommend reading the following books. These books will help you to start to think like a trader and realize what you are getting yourself into:
a) "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre
b) "Art of War" by Sun Tzu (Not a trading book but an old book on rules of war and how to protect yourself from being outsmarted and defeated by your enemies)
c) "The Trading Methodologies of W.D. Gann" by Hima Reddy
d) "Time Compression Trading: Exploiting Multiple Time Frames in Zero Sum Markets" by Jason Alan Jankovsky
e) "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude" by Mark Douglas
5) Watch YouTube videos. Absorb all the info you can as the more you know, the more the pieces of the puzzle fit together later on. You can learn the basics of trading on your own and then when you are ready to take your trading to the next level.
To win the game, you need to develop your thinking and how you participate in the game. You are in a market trading against professional traders. The beginning traders in the market are not your competition-they are incidental. You need to trade with the professional traders who run the market.
I wish you luck on a battle field!
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
Learn The HIDDEN Costs of Trading
In this educational article, we will discuss the hidden costs of trading.
1 - Brokers' Commissions
Trading commission is the brokers' fee for opening a trading position.
Usually, it is calculated based on the size of the trade.
Even though most of the traders believe that trading commissions are too low to even count them, the fact is that trading on consistent basis and opening a couple of trading positions weekly, the composite value of commissions may cut a substantial part of our profits.
2 - Education
Of course, most of the trading basics can be found on the Internet absolutely for free.
However, the more experienced you become, the harder it is to find the materials. So you usually should pay for the advanced training.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that the course/coaching that you purchase will improve your trading, quite often traders go through multiple courses/coaching programs before they become consistently profitable.
3 - Spreads
Spread is the difference between the sellers' and buyers' prices.
That difference must be compensated by a trader if one wished to open a trading position.
In highly liquid markets, the spreads are usually low and most of the traders ignore them.
However, being similar to commissions, spreads may cut the substantial part of the overall profits.
4 - Time
When you begin your trading journey, it is not possible to predict how much it will take to become a consistently profitable trader.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that you will become one.
One fact is true, you should spend a couple of years before you find a way to trade profitably, and as we know, the time is money. More time you sacrifice on trading, less time you have on something else.
5 - Swaps
Swap is the fee you pay for transferring a position overnight.
Swap is based on a difference between the interests rates of the currencies that are in a pair that you trade.
Occasionally, swaps can even be positive, and you can earn on holding such positions.
However, most of the time the swaps are negative and the longer you hold your trades, the more costly your trading becomes.
The brokers' commissions, spreads and swaps compose a substantial cost of our trading positions. Adding into the equation the expensive learning materials and time spent on practicing, trading becomes a very expensive game to play.
However, knowing in advance these hidden costs, the one can better prepare himself for a trading journey.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
London Kill Zone Close (ICT concept) 4 of 4London Kill Zone Close (ICT concept) 4 of 4
Hours are from 10am to 12pm New York Time/EST
1) London session is closing, so one more pump or dump mostly happens before liquidity and volume to end of session gets lower
2) Trade majors with USD pairs
3) Look for 10-20 pips on a short scalp during this time
4) Don't be greedy- get your little piece of pip pie and then turn off computer and get some fresh air. Balance is key to life- not staying indoors always.
5) Look at what that pair has been doing for last few days or week and see or visualize what this LKZC wants to do- get on short trade train.
6) Do your homework with all of these Kill Zones noted in this series, take notes, practice what you would do in live trading if you see certain setups.
With you best in trading and life-
Stay Safe Always
New York Open Kill Zone (ICT concept) 3-4New York Open Kill Zone (ICT concept) 3 of 4
Times are from 7 am to 9 am New York Times/EST
1) You see a lot of both liquidity and volume with overlapping sessions of both London & New York
2) Better to use only majors or pairs with USD in them, like: EU, AU, UJ, GU, UC & NU
3) Nothing happens always in Forex, but one or more of the noted pairs above will have a setup to trade during this time, to give you 20-30 pips.
4) New York Open Kill Zone will do either two things during the session: Either be a continuation from London and go same way and/or be a reversal
in direction and make a low for the day.
5) During this NYOKZ- a lot of economic news releases happen which will either pump or dump a USD pair, so be cautious around news times.
6) Noted on chart is EU 15 mn chart, which you could have set up a 12 to 20 pip sell trade or scalp during this time period.
7) Look at bigger picture then noted 15 mn chart, higher TFs give you marco perspective so you do not get tunnel vision when trading on 15mn or 5mn Tfs.
You need to be able to read structure, price action, support and resistance areas, round numbers- Always remember time and price of day.
Stay safe, wish you best in Forex & Life.
Always on every trade control Risk and Reward by using only 1% to 2% of your account maximum per trade- related to a sound strategy and/or plan.
London Kill Zone (ICT concept) 2 of 4London Kill Zone (ICT concept) 2 of 4 (2am to 5am NY time)
This happens at start of London session, 1st three hours of session
1) Look at all EUR and GBP pairs, from daily down to trading charts 15mn (noted on attached chart) and/or 5mn charts for entry
3) Look for set ups related to fib ret 50%-61.8%, trend continuations, trend reversals
4) Look for imbalances in price action, support and resistance, round numbers (ones with alot of zeros, like 139.00 or quarter numbers< you can You Tube.
5) Look for price action before this possible trading area in London kill zone, what happened previous? last couple days or this week?
6) Do you have a buy or sell daily bias? If you do, which you should have- then only take trades in that direction today. It is easier.
7) London kill zone has a lot of liquidity and volume- so with right pair and set up you should expect 25-50 pips + in profit
8) Always on all trades control your RISKS, but adjusting lot sizes on each pair you trade to 1% to 2% of your total account balance. Be smart.
Trade wisely, control all you can by only trading during best times during each session- you do not need to spend all day on computer trading Forex.
If you think Forex will give you time freedom to do what you want to do in life- then be serious & focused to make trading a lifelong journey.
Wish you best, stay safe
Asian Kill Zone (ICT concept) 1 of 4 PartsAsian Kill Zone (ICT concept) 1 or 4 Parts:
Look At First Two Hours Of Tokyo or Asian Session
1) Look At Noted Jpy pairs on chart, on 15 mn timeframe
2) First two hours of Tokyo or Asian session with one or more Jpy, should give you a set up for 15-20 pips or more, attached UJ chart gives you 50 pips in 2 hrs.
3) Yes, look at previous session. Is there a buy or sell trend on 15 mn timeframe. Is there a fib. retracement set up (50%-61.8%)?
4) Yes, you could have held noted UJ trade today (Friday) for 200 pips, but never trade with emotions or fear.
5) You need to understand completely what the Asian or Tokyo session wants to do and what happen a few days before current price action, so you can formulate a plan or strategy for trading the Asian/Tokyo session for the 1st, 2 hours or more- if you do trade it.
6) Asian Session has the lowest liquidity and volume each day and is before London and NY sessions (You need to understand, what big banks are doing during this session (accumulation? or...)
7) Remember that price action moves in waves- like the ocean- so trading the right pair, at the right price, during the right session & at the right time is paramount- when you are trading Forex, as a retail trader.
Yes, ICT is on YouTube- been trading 30 plus years. If you keep an open mind and review his free material you will be 100% better Forex trader.
Wish you best, stay safe
Your homework, if you trade Tokyo session is to study all Japanese pair and what they do related to price action within the 1st two hours of session and how you would have gotten into trade (in hindsight). Where you would have place Entry, Stops & Target). Are you conservative trader or aggressive trader? How long do you let trade run if you are in profit?