RISK MANAGEMENT [TAGALOG]As I always say, napaka importante ng risk management. I have explained it all in tagalog para mas maintindihan. I really hope marealize nyo ang importance neto sa magiging trading journey ninyo.
STOPLOSS IS A MUST, BUT STOPLOSS ALONE WITHOUT RISK MANAGEMENT is not a good habit and still you'll end up wondering with a negative PNL in the end.
FORMULAS are in there also.
Try doing the mathematics for your self.
I REALLY HOPE THIS HELPS!
Love,
Coach Dynati
Risk Management
The 5 Crashes That Shook The Markets.A very brief look at 5 of the most significant market crashes to date, using the Dow Jones Index.
Content taken from various online sources.
Great Crash 1929
Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve,
the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer.
During the mid- to late 1920s, the stock market in the United States underwent rapid expansion. It continued for the first six months following President Herbert Hoover’s inauguration in January 1929.
The prices of stocks soared to fantastic heights in the great “Hoover bull market,” and the public, from banking and industrial magnates to chauffeurs and cooks, rushed to brokers to invest their liquid assets or their savings in securities, which they could sell at a profit.
Billions of dollars were drawn from the banks into Wall Street for brokers’ loans to carry margin accounts. The stock market stubbornly kept on climbing. That is, until October 1929, when it all came tumbling down.
Catching on to the market's overheated situation, seasoned investors began "taking profits" in the autumn of 1929. Share prices started to stutter.
They first crash on Oct. 24, 1929, markets opened 11% lower than the previous day. After this "Black Thursday," they rallied briefly. But prices fell again the following Monday. Many investors couldn't make their margin calls.
Wholesale panic set in, leading to more selling. On "Black Tuesday," Oct. 29, investors unloaded millions of shares — and kept on unloading. There were literally no buyers.
The rapid decline in U.S. stocks contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The Great Depression lasted approximately 10 years and affected both industrialized and non industrialized countries in many parts of the world.
When Franklin D. Roosevelt became President in 1933, he almost immediately started pushing through Congress a series of programs and projects called the New Deal. How much the New Deal actually alleviated the depression is a matter of some debate — throughout the decade, production remained low and unemployment high.
But the New Deal did more than attempt to stabilize the economy, provide relief to jobless Americans and create previously unheard of safety net programs, as well as regulate the private sector. It also reshaped the role of government, with programs that are now part of the fabric of American society.
Black Monday 1987
Many market analysts theorize that the Black Monday crash of 1987 was largely driven simply by a strong bull market that was overdue for a major correction.
1987 marked the fifth year of a major bull market that had not experienced a single major corrective retracement of prices since its inception in 1982. Stock prices had more than tripled in value in the previous four and a half years, rising by 44% in 1987 alone, prior to the Black Monday crash.
The other culprit pinpointed as contributing to the severe crash was computerized trading. Computer, or “program trading,” was still relatively new to the markets in the mid-1980s.
The use of computers enabled brokers to place larger orders and implement trades more quickly. In addition, the software programs developed by banks, brokerages, and other firms were set to automatically execute stop-loss orders, selling out positions, if stocks dropped by a certain percentage.
On Black Monday, the computerized trading systems created a domino effect, continually accelerating the pace of selling as the market dropped, thus causing it to drop even further. The avalanche of selling that was triggered by the initial losses resulted in stock prices dropping even further, which in turn triggered more rounds of computer-driven selling.
A third factor in the crash was “portfolio insurance,” which, like computerized trading, was a relatively new phenomenon at the time. Portfolio insurance involved large institutional investors partially hedging their stock portfolios by taking short positions in S&P 500 futures. The portfolio insurance strategies were designed to automatically increase their short futures positions if there was a significant decline in stock prices.
On Black Monday, the practice triggered the same domino effect as the computerized trading programs. As stock prices declined, large investors sold short more S&P 500 futures contracts. The downward pressure in the futures market put additional selling pressure on the stock market.
In short, the stock market dropped, which caused increased short selling in the futures market, which caused more investors to sell stocks, which caused more investors to short sell stock futures.
A key consequence of the Black Monday crash was the development and implementation of “circuit breakers.” In the aftermath of the 1987 crash, stock exchanges worldwide implemented “circuit breakers” that temporarily halt trading when major stock indices decline by a specified percentage.
For example, as of 2019, if the S&P 500 Index falls by more than 7% from the previous day’s closing price, it trips the first circuit breaker, which halts all stock trading for 15 minutes. The second circuit breaker is triggered if there is a 13% drop in the index from the previous close, and if the third circuit breaker level is triggered – by a 20% decline – then trading is halted for the remainder of the day.
The purpose of the circuit breaker system is to try to avoid a market panic where investors just start recklessly selling out all their holdings. It’s widely believed that such a general panic is to blame for much of the severity of the Black Monday crash.
The temporary halts in trading that occur under the circuit breaker system are designed to give investors a space to catch their breath and, hopefully, take the time to make rational trading decisions, thereby avoiding a blind panic of stock selling.
The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity, as needed, “to support the economic and financial system”; (2) providing support to the Treasury securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements; (3) allowing the federal funds rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0% and below; and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago.
Dotcom Bubble 2000
The dotcom crash was triggered by the rise and fall of technology stocks. The growth of the Internet created a buzz among investors, who were quick to pour money into start-up companies.
These companies were able to raise enough money to go public without a business plan, product, or track record of profits. These companies quickly ran through their cash, which caused them to go under.
The Internet bubble, grew out of a combination of the presence of speculative or fad-based investing, the abundance of venture capital funding for start-ups, and the failure of dotcoms to turn a profit.
Investors poured money into Internet start-ups during the 1990s hoping they would one day become profitable. Many investors and venture capitalists abandoned a cautious approach for fear of not being able to cash in on the growing use of the Internet.
With capital markets throwing money at the sector, start-ups were in a race to quickly get big. Companies without any proprietary technology abandoned fiscal responsibility. They spent a fortune on marketing to establish brands that would set them apart from the competition. Some start-ups spent as much as 90% of their budget on advertising.
Record amounts of capital started flowing into the Nasdaq in 1997. By 1999, 39% of all venture capital investments were going to Internet companies. That year, most of the 457 initial public offerings (IPOs) were related to Internet companies, followed by 91 in the first quarter of 2000 alone.
The high-water mark was the AOL Time Warner megamerger in January 2000, which became the biggest merger failure in history.
As investment capital began to dry up, so did the lifeblood of cash-strapped dotcom companies. Dotcom companies that reached market capitalizations in the hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless within a matter of months. By the end of 2001, a majority of publicly-traded dotcom companies folded, and trillions of dollars of investment capital evaporated.
The bubble ultimately burst, leaving many investors facing steep losses and several Internet companies going bust. Companies that famously survived the bubble include Amazon, eBay, and Priceline.
The US government would date the start of the dot-com recession as beginning in March 2001. And by the time of the economic shock from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there was no longer any doubt. In that tragic month of September, for the first time in 26 years, not a single IPO came to market. The dot-com era was over.
Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009
The crisis, often referred to as “The Great Recession,” didn’t happen overnight. There were many factors present leading up to the crisis, and their effects linger to this day.
The foundation of the global financial crisis was built on the back of the housing market bubble that began to form in 2007. Banks and lending institutions offered low interest rates on mortgages and encouraged many homeowners to take out loans that they couldn’t afford.
With all the mortgages flooding in, lenders created new financial instruments called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which were essentially mortgages bundled together that could then be sold as securities with minimal risk load due to the fact that they were backed by credit default swaps (CDS). Lenders could then easily pass along the mortgages – and all the risk.
Outdated regulations that weren’t rigorously enforced allowed lenders to get sloppy with underwriting, meaning the actual value of the securities couldn’t be established or guaranteed.
Banks began to lend recklessly to families and individuals without true means to follow through on the mortgages they’d been granted. Such high-risk (subprime) loans were then inevitably bundled together and passed down the line.
As the subprime mortgage bundles grew in number to an overwhelming degree, with a large percentage moving into default, lending institutions began to face financial difficulties. It led to the dismal financial conditions around the world during the 2008-2009 period and continued for years to come.
Financial stresses peaked following the failure of the US financial firm Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Together with the failure or near failure of a range of other financial firms around that time, this triggered a panic in financial markets globally.
Many who took out subprime mortgages eventually defaulted. When they could not pay, financial institutions took major hits. The government, however, stepped in to bail out banks.
The housing market was deeply impacted by the crisis. Evictions and foreclosures began within months. The stock market, in response, began to plummet and major businesses worldwide began to fail, losing millions. This, of course, resulted in widespread layoffs and extended periods of unemployment worldwide.
Declining credit availability and failing confidence in financial stability led to fewer and more cautious investments, and international trade slowed to a crawl.
Eventually, the United States responded to the crisis by passing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which used an expansionary monetary policy, facilitated bank bailouts and mergers, and worked towards stimulating economic growth.
Covid Crash 2020
The 2020 crash occurred because investors were worried about the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
The uncertainty over the danger of the virus, plus the shuttering of many businesses and industries as states implemented shutdown orders, damaged many sectors of the economy.
Investors predicted that workers would be laid off, resulting in high unemployment and decreased purchasing power.
On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease a pandemic. The organization was concerned that government leaders weren't doing enough to stop the rapidly spreading virus.
Investors had also been jittery ever since President Donald Trump launched trade wars with China and other countries.
Under both the Trump and Biden administrations, the federal government passed multiple bills to stimulate the economy. These included help directed at specific sectors, cash payments to taxpayers, increases in unemployment insurance, and rental assistance.
These measures further soothed investors, leading to additional gains in the stock market. Investors were also encouraged by the development and distribution of multiple COVID-19 vaccines, which began under the Trump administration.
The driving forces behind the stock market crash of 2020 were unprecedented. However, investor confidence remained high, propelled by a combination of federal stimulus and vaccine development.
4 Rules every successful trader should follow📈😎1. Trade according to the system.
2. Keep statistics.
3. Have strict risk management.
4. Adapt to the market.
Trade according to the system
When you trade without a system, it's gambling. Usually, when you ask a beginner why he has opened a position, he uncertainly begins to refer to the fact that someone gave him a signal, or that he thinks it's time for the coin to go in his direction.
Trading is a job in which discipline is rewarded. That is why every trader has his own trading system, which he follows in every trade.
It's like with the road rules, you can drive car without knowing them, but then you are almost guaranteed to get into an accident.
Keep statistics
Professional athletes constantly watch recordings of their performances and practice all the movements in front of a mirror, paying attention to every detail. It is vital to get better.
For a trader, statistics is a riddle that helps him learn from his mistakes. You should write comments on each trade, filter them by reason of entry or closure, track the average risk, average profit, percentage of successful trades and analyze each trade in detail on a tradingview chart.
Have strict risk management
Sometimes the market goes against you and you feel the full range of emotions – hope, anger, disappointment, despair. On such days, you will lose all your money if you do not have clear rules.
Set yourself a clear limit – no more than 3% of the deposit lost per day. For example, you have a deposit of $1000. You can't lose more than $30 a day.
In this way, you no longer risk falling victim to a spiral of negative emotions, you will begin to be more responsible in the trades you open, and you will be able to create financial stability.
Adapt to the market
Institutional players are always coming up with new ways to entice young players to invest in their coins, and technicians are developing increasingly sophisticated robots. That is why our responsibility as traders is to develop faster than them and to not stand still.
To do this, you need to monitor the market and watch which setups work best and which end up as traps.
An obvious example: during a bull market, breakouts work upwards, and downward breakouts are usually false. The same is true for the bear market – downward breakouts are cool, upward breakouts are deception.
In addition, you need to experiment with your trading algorithm and identify its weaknesses. Add new rules, test them, evaluate the difference.
Follow these rules and I guarantee that you will earn much more from trading, and the process itself will give you more pleasure than ever.
Good luck with your trades and see you in the DOM ✌️
RISK MANAGEMENTRisk management helps cut down losses. It can also help protect traders' accounts from losing all of its money. The risk occurs when traders suffer losses. If the risk can be managed, traders can open themselves up to making money in the market.
It is an essential but often overlooked prerequisite to successful active trading. After all, a trader who has generated substantial profits can lose it all in just one or two bad trades without a proper risk management strategy. So how do you develop the best techniques to curb the risks of the market?
This article will discuss some simple strategies that can be used to protect your trading profits.
THE UGLY TRUTH BEHIND RISK TO REWARD RATIOThe risk-reward ratio plays a vital role, although a good R/R ratio does not ensure PROFITABILITY ‼️
Financial trading requires a systematic approach to increase the potential reward. Besides setting a reasonable take-profit level, you have to learn how to maximize your profits and minimize your losses.
SIMPLE MATHEMATICS!
Don’t be fooled by the risk reward ratio — it’s not what you think.
You can look for trades with a risk reward ratio of 1:6 - 1-10 and remain a consistent LOSER😏
You can look for trades with a risk-reward ratio of less than 3 and remain consistently profitable!
Instead, you must combine your risk-reward ratio with your winning rate to know whether you’ll make money in the long run (otherwise known as your EXPECTANCY) and QUANTIFY YOUR EDGE!
And the way to do it is to execute your trades CONSISTENTLY.
50 dollar challengeHere I provide a trading challenge. It's not a easy challenge, discipline is needed to meet the goals.
The goal is to start with only $50 and increase this to $10.000 (200x) in 2 months time.
Every trade always need a 1:4+ RR in order to not devalue your portfolio quick after making some losing trades. Total trades to be taken is around 80 - 100 with a trader who has an average 50% - 75% winrate.
Ofcourse leverage is needed in order to increase the account value in a shorter time. Stoploss stays the same as what I have recommend.
I will do this challenge on my own to improve myself and give myself more confident in trading.
Goodluck if you give this challenge a try!
50 dollar challenge
How to remain consistent while trading the financial marketsToday is a big day for us, as two years ago, on the 6th of June in 2020, we launched our company in attempts to be a valuable contributor to the trading industry and help all types of traders: beginners, advanced traders, those who are lost in the journey and so on. However, our personal trading experience goes way back, as we have been trading for more than five years. Throughout this long and interesting journey, we have had many ups and downs. After all, nothing in life is easy, and you have to overcome some obstacles in order to become consistent in what you are doing.
Reaching the doors of consistency is the main aim of every beginning and practising trader. Although many individuals may think of consistency as an upward-sloping straight line, years of practice and experience show us that it is rather an ascending channel. Being consistent does not necessarily signify that every trading day/week/month must be a winning one. You will always have losing streaks, unsuccessful trades and so forth. Instead, it indicates that by having a working trading strategy and obeying it, you are gonna be profitable in the long run.
Below, we have listed and scrutinized some of the rules that you can implement in your trading that can give you a hand in becoming and remaining consistent:
1. Have a clearly identified trading plan and stick to it
This may seem like a pretty basic rule, but believe me, most people never go past this pretty fundamental stage. It is really straightforward and crucial that you need to have a backtested trading strategy, and it could be anything you feel comfortable with. Whether you like to open positions once two Exponential Moving Averages cross each other, or once specific patterns are formed and the price is ready to move according to your bias and so forth.
2. Stop changing your trading strategy every time you encounter losses and feel frustrated
Trading is a game of numbers. Yes, you will experience many losing days. Yes, you will feel frustrated and angry to the stage that you might smash the screen of your computer. After all, emotions and psychology play a huge role in trading. Believe me, changing your strategy every week and trying to do something new will never be an option in this case. I see many people make this mistake and get perplexed on why they are not profitable yet. The right thing to do is to stick to one single trading plan and ride along till the end. At the end, if you are risk tolerant and patient, you will always be profitable in the long run.
3. Manage your risk
This can’t be said enough. I see people trade the markets like a casino in attempts to be profitable and successful in the long run. Just because you think the setup is perfect, or that you have seen your favourite author’s technical analysis nicely align with yours, you should not be risking big portions of your account on a single position. You should have a well-defined risk management plan. Whether it is risking 1% on all positions, or risking 5% per position on Friday afternoons in order to drink lots of champagne on the weekends. Bottom line: whatever you do, do it with a plan and keep things consistent. Personally, we have always been risking 1-2% per single position, as this is something we are comfortable with. If you feel like you are not mentally ready to trade a live account, you can start even smaller (0.5% per trade) and then gradually go bigger.
4. Do not overtrade and learn to stay off the markets when necessary
Many people think that opening more trades will generate them more profits. However, less is always more, and quality will always be over quantity. Depending on what type of a trader you are and what your trading strategy looks like, there should be an average number of trades that you enter every day/week. If you are a swing traders that tries capturing nice long-term waves, 3-5 trades per week would most likely be more than enough. If you are a scalper that loves sitting in front of the charts for hours, your strategy would probably consist of entering 15-20 short-term positions per day. Long story short, have a predetermined range and do not go off the barriers of it.
The above stated points are some of the tips and strategies that could help you in remaining consistent in the markets. They may seem pretty simple, but remember that beauty lies within simplicity. There is no need to make things more complicated when you can simply stick to basic principles and succeed in this industry.
Have a great trading week, family!
Investroy
How much leverage should I be using?Understanding how to trade forex requires detailed knowledge about economies, political situations, all the individual countries, global macroeconomics, the impact of volatility, it goes on and on. But the reality of the situation is this isn't what makes most new traders fail. What makes most traders fail isn't the lack of knowledge or understanding of what it is they're actually trading. It's the lack of knowledge and understanding on leverage.
As most of us would have heard, there is very obvious statistic out there that majority of retail traders fail. Now, most people will see this as a lack of competence and just purely not willing to put in the effort to be successful. But a lot of the time it is people not understanding the risk their undertaking and what it is they're actually doing with their money when they enter the market. It really highlights this when traders come to a firm like ours, and question leverage or they have so many questions about leverage that even though they've been trading for three to four years, they still don't fully understand the actual risks that are at hand when they are opening certain positions that they really can't afford to open.
Today I wanted to jump into leverage. Let's really dive into depth what it is, why we have it, how we can use it. Then, finally touch on what is the right amount of leverage for you as a trader. So you can be exponential in maximizing your profits, but also ensuring that you're not damaging yourself long term.
LEVERAGE RISK
Firstly, I think it's important for us to have a look into leverage. Leverage is the process in which an investor or trader borrows capital in order to invest or purchase something. Typically we borrow capital from a broker and we buy into positions with money that we didn't have in order to be able to gain more profit from those positions. Most traders are blindsided and constantly think the more money I have, the more profit I can make, which is true, but they fail to recognize that the more risk it carries.
Carrying higher leverage is an exponential increase in risk. Most brokers out there will probably offer you something like 50:1, 100:1 or even 500:1 leverage. This giving you a buying power of 50, 100 or even 500 times whatever the amount of money you have in your account. Which means a trader with just $100 in a brokerage account could open a position with $50,000 in the market. Now, while that may sound advertising, believe me, that's a trap and we're going to chat about that today.
HIGH LEVERAGE EXAMPLE
So let's dive into an example. Let's imagine we have a trader who has a $10,000 account. They decide to use 100:1 leverage, which now means with that $10,000 cash, they can trade up to $1,000,000 in the forex market. Let's assume that the trader opened a position with the full available capital which would relate to 10 lots, and they opened the position on a currency with the USD being the quote currency. That means that each PIP movement is equal to $100. So for a simple equation, if they were to enter a trade and that trade went against them by 50 pips, they would have lost 50% of their account because that 50 pips would have been equal to $5000. So in one wrong trade they lost 50% of their account.
So many people in this industry is so quick to look at what the realized gains could be, but they rather tend to ignore the actual risks that come with that. If you don't have sufficient evidence that your investment strategy is going to provide consistent and stable gains long term, do not look to trade with higher leverage, as you will be gambling and it is extremely risky.
LOW LEVERAGE EXAMPLE
Now let's use the same example, but in a lower leverage situation. The trader has $10,000 cash only this time he is trading on an account with 5:1 leverage, resulting in a buying power of $50,000. This means on a pair with the US dollar as the base currency that you can open a maximum size of 0.5 lots. Let's go ahead and take the exact same trade, only this time with a 0.5 lots, each pip is equal to $5. Should the investment or trade fall the same 50 pips this time the trader will only lose $250, which is a mere 2.5%. Same trade, different leverage, one lost 50% the other lost 2.5%.
It is a common trick out there that traders feel they require more leverage to really make money in the market. It's not true. Yes, it can help you get more profits from those smaller moves. Yes, it is really beneficial if you have a proven strategy. If you are still coming to grips with trading or you're fairly new and you haven't achieved consistency and profitability yet, focus on lower leverage. What it will actually do is make you focus on long term goals. Focus on the process this giving you more sustainability in the market and therefore more maturity.
CHOOSE THE RIGHT LEVERAGE
Choosing the right leverage is a very important step in Forex trading. You can be tapered in by fancy numbers and big brokers trying to get you in, Or, you can realistically dive into what it is you actually need and what's going to benefit you more in the future. There's no right answer to how much leverage you need each strategy in each individual require different things, but what I will do is share some tips and some knowledge on how to choose the right one that benefits you.
1. Always try and maintain the lowest leverage you possibly can for your strategy. If you manage to pull it right the way into where you can only just open the positions on the risk you have allowed yourself, and you can't open more than, lets say three positions, what you actually do is limit yourself to focus on only the good positions. You've prevented over trading from occurring and you can really focus on your risk management.
2. When you open positions or you talk about opening positions instead of going to people saying, "yes, I opened 0.35 lots." Use the actual dollar value when you open a 0.35 lot position. Instead, say "I opened a $35,000 position." Talking in that language that you have placed your bets with $100,000 or $1,000,000 will make you realize how much risk you're actually exposing yourself to and the capacity of what it is you are trading.
3. Limit your overall risk, at absolute Max, I risk 0.25%. This allows me to go into large drawdowns and it not be an issue. I can still manage it accordingly in it actually keeps me nice and calm and focused on the analysis rather than the running profit and loss.
The bottom line is selecting the right Forex leverage depends on the traders experienced risk tolerance and comfort when operating in the market. You want to ensure that it's not out there to harm you, but rather it's there to help. You do not want be trying to get really high leverage so you can make large profits, when you know realistically, there is no evidence to prove that you will make those high profits. Start small, gain consistency, gain exposure and gain experience, and then you can start looking to expand your equity and buying power.
📌Position Sizing AND Stress CurveTry to find where your current stress level is on the diagram.
If you are a trader and already have taken position , how much is your position size % ? Do you think there is a correlation between your stress level and your current position size , then subsequently your performance ?
If you are in red level, now is a good time to seek some serious change. Trading in itself is a very stressful job, especially when we are not proficient in the psychology of trading and do not pay much attention to the important rules of risk and capital management. maybe Slipping only one 1% of these rules has terrible consequences for us.
WHAT IS STRESS (in general)?
Everyone experiences stress at different points in their life, and in small doses it is essential to motivate us. Too much stress, though, can be overwhelming and leave us burnt-out, filled with anxiety or anger, and unable to act. Stress is a feeling of emotional or physical tension. It can come from any event or thought that makes you feel frustrated, angry, or nervous. Stress is your body's reaction to a challenge or demand. In short bursts, stress can be positive, such as when it helps you avoid danger or meet a deadline
Stress causes wear and tear of our bodies due to demands made by our life. The Public Health Services estimate that there are one million premature deaths in America each year. In this, 75% of the people were suffering from stress-related disorders. Americans are suffering from various problems. The number of Americans suffering is high in number. The various problems are:
30 million blood vessel diseases
1 million heart attacks
8 million cases of ulcers
12 million cases of alcoholism
WHAT DOES IT FEEL LIKE?
Problem stress can manifest in many different ways:
wanting to relax but being unable to let go
feeling prolonged anxiety or worry
feeling depressed and unmotivated
sleep problems
increased use of alcohol / drugs to self-medicate
Stress can also cause a variety of physical symptoms:
change in appetite
tightness and pain in shoulders, neck and back
increased use of alcohol / drugs to self medicate
digestive problems
autoimmune problems (eczema, arthritis, ulcers)
Trading-Specific Stresses:
In the above paragraphs, we have seen the different stress subsequences in our social life. But there are also many stressful situations in trading that traders perceive.
Trading is inherently a job full of anticipated and unforeseen risks. .Each of which can cause stress on the trader and affect his performance!
Even Being idle and not doing anything can also be stressful. The fact that you could make money if you were present in the market is itself very stressful. You can watch your position double overnight sometimes if you don’t do anything. Similarly, you may sit on a losing trade while it goes down in value. This loss situation is stressful, which is a result of doing nothing.
As a trader ,we trade the risk to make money , it sounds very exiting and enjoying when we can control our risk and profit ! there is a tiny distinction and span between successful traders and unsuccessful traders ! When they can manage their position size and risk/reward in such a way that they can have the most profit and the least loss with maximum performance.
abnormal Stress limits our ability to handle a large amount of information in trading. Which is why we are not successful most of the times. For some traders who use to trade with big position size( more than1%- 5% of their total net) , stress is equivalent to losing. If they suffer a lose In these cases, because a large amount of position is involved and it is difficult to control it can be the Biggest in the speculative loss, which is a trading-specific stress. Since losses are unacceptable for many, they tend not to close their position in the hope of recovering their losses , so their losses will get bigger and bigger . The psychological impact of a large loss upon an average trader can be devastating, because Daniel Kahneman in the book of Thinking, Fast and Slow by , he says that for human- being the impact of any loss is bigger than impact of equivalent profit !
-In a pessimistic scenario ,Suppose you open an average of 10 positions a day, and if all your positions are closed at a loss
>>With a risk of 1% per trade; You do not lose about 10% at the end of the day
>>But with 5% per trade, you lose more than 37% at the end of the day
>>And with 10%,you lose more than 60% of whole capital after 10 unsuccessful trade per day . So in the same proportion; Size position can greatly affect our stress level and disrupt our performance!
In this situations, our brain can no longer make any right decisions and emotions overwhelm us especially when we are at a loss, and then the likelihood of committing human error is greatly increased.
Conclusion
So in this article, we can figure out what can greatly affect our stress in trading is the amount of volume in a trade especialy in perpetual future markets ,
Why does a trader increase the position size with thoughtless, recklessness and carelessness, maybe it is due to ignorance or maybe it is high self-confidence.
Anyway, if one can 100% predict the future trend of a trade, one might be able to earn hundreds or thousands or even millions of dollars in a short time with the Leverage X100, but the problem is that we are in the trading and financial markets with probabilities. We are dealing and no one can predict even 10% of the next moves with confidence. So It's so important to control the exact amount of your risk ,loss and possible profit in each trade by choosing the right amount for position size and then the risk /reward ratio.
Every person reacts to stressful events differently. What might be stressful for one person might not be stressful for another one or maybe a pleasurable game . All these together produce fear and anxiety in people.
The purpose of this article is not to let you know various types of stresses in trading , It was more about the stress of position size in particular and how it can affect your trading style.
But the result being in high stress level for all is loss in trading. You can at least now realize how dominating stress can be. In coming articles, we will help you protect from its effects.
You can self-evaluate yourself on parameters like stress susceptibility, stress exposure and stress protection.
In general, we will try to reduce general stress and trading specific stress. Later we will also discuss stress prevention techniques, relaxation procedures, and how not to allow stress to affect your trading performance.
(The reason that inspired me to write this article was mostly because of a friend who is a trader and he had invested in Luna and was severely bankrupt and now more than his financial problems he is struggling with a lot mental and psychological problems , and was asked me for help.
Maybe it was his bad luck but his problem was when He was optimistic for a immediate recovery after any Luna's downfall , he traded in a large position and with every further reduction he bought again at a lower level in the hope of a return to compensate, but we all saw how far Luna decreased . although this strategy( DCA ) may work well sometimes , but if he had considered the position size and risk measurement , he didn't lose more than 200k overnight.)
Source: lifehack.org- wetalktrade.com- phil-hills.com
When you should use leverage in your trades?When you should use leverage in your trades? I’m going to answer this question, but first, we have to mention two other questions to be answered.
Q1: What is a reasonable trade?
An order in which the entry point, stop loss, and take profit are already pre-defined based on a good return strategy or rules.
Q2: What is money management?
Money management is to determine the percentage of risk on the total balance in each order and to know what your position size will be and how much your potential loss will be.
We need to do some calculations to answer the first question.
Let’s suppose your account balance is $100 and the maximum risk on your balance for each trade is 5%. This means that on a reasonable trade, your loss will be $5 at most. Besides that, you have a good trading opportunity with an entry point at $10, stop loss at $9, and profit point at $12, i.e. 10% potential risk and 20% potential reward for the position.
Since we cannot lose more than $5 of our balance, we need a position size where the potential loss will not exceed $5. Which we can calculate with this formula: (Max risk on balance / position risk * 100). Which would be $50 in our case.
This means that we are only allowed to include $50 out of $100 in this trade; this would be $5 after a 10% loss.
Everything is normal and we can afford it, so we will do the trade.
Now, let’s increase the max risk on balance to 20%. It means our potential loss would be at most $20. By doing the same calculations considering the same reasonable trade with 10% risk, our position size will be $200 while we do not have more than $100, so where do we get $200 from?!
Yep! Leverage would help you in this case. So benevolent, isn’t it?
In this case, your leverage would be 2 and you can open a $200 position, but don’t forget you increased your account risk from 5% to 20% already.
Note that the risk will be applied to your real asset. If your balance is $100 and the leverage is 10, the exchange will give you about $1000 to buy or sell. While the 5% of $100 is $5, the 5% of $1000 would be $50, which is 50% of your real asset. So calculating the risk on leverage balance is practically meaningless!
What if we had 10 orders simultaneously? It means $100 will be split between 10 orders. For ease of calculation, we consider every 10 trades to be the same as what we had above, while each trade would have 10% of $100. In these conditions, each trade would again have a $50 position, but leverage will be 5!
Having said that, we can conclude that leverage alone is meaningless and finds meaning alongside reasonable trade opportunities and money management.
In the above explanations, for the ease of calculation and context understanding, I used rand but not necessarily correct values. For example, a risk ratio of 5% on balance is a really high risk or in the example of 10 trades at once, it is wrong to consider your balance as $100 at the start of each trade. In the worst-case scenario, you should deduct the loss of the previous trade from your balance for the next trade.
From the link below, you can access the tool I prepared to calculate the position details.
bit.ly
Feel free to give your constructive feedback.
How the higher time frames help you to avoid unnecessary losses Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss the importance of higher time frame analysis.
Doesn't matter what type of trading strategy, method or style you use,
the higher time frame often will help us to strengthen our bias overall and give us a good perspective of the possible direction for the price to go.
In addition, it helps traders to avoid unnecessary losses and mediocre entries that will eat up your profits.
More often I hear traders will execute trades on the lower time frames, and not factor the overall higher time frame bias and perspective.
Although entering on the smaller time frame can potentially give you more Risk:Reward, it's often more risky and trades can easily reverse, then hit the stop loss.
This often creates stress, negativity, and revenge trading psychology for traders which ended up blowing accounts.
I want to give a few examples of higher time frame analysis, how they can help traders to avoid “traps” on the lower time frames, avoid unnecessary losses, and keep the emotion at bay to trade another day.
When having a bullish bias on the HTFs, its good risk management to not consider any short term, bearish sell setups.
These sell setups may form on the LTFs, but they can easily not continue to your desired target, and reverse up before you have time to react.
In addition, traders hate to see profit come and go.
So if a trader has a short position running in some profit, but decides to hold onto the trade, and once the position reverses, traders don't want to exit, and then end up holding a losing position to its SL.
Examples:
AUDUSD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: Many LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, they ended up with losses
NZDUSD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: Many LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, they ended up with losses
AUDCHF:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
NZDCHF:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
NZDCAD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
SILVER:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
Three pillars of trading success 📈💲It's time for my mid week educational post.
Today I want to talk about the three pillars needed by all traders for success in the markets.
This isn't just the forex market either this applies to trading all financial markets.
Be it forex, crypto or stocks, so lets get into the the three pillars of success.
PILLAR NUMER ONE- STRATEGY
You MUST have an edge before entering the markets.
When will you enter the market?
When will you close?
What % per trade will you risk?
What pairs will you trade?
What timeframes will you trade?
If you don't have any answers to the above you are entering the markets blind and it will end in tears.
In trading, edge is your ability to select trades that perform better than random.
You can think of edge as the process used to generate and execute entry and exit signals.
Do not enter the markets until you are working a strategy with a proven edge.
The stronger your edge, the more profitable you’ll be.
PILLAR NUMBER TWO- RISK MANAGEMENT
We can't avoid the white elephant in the room on average 80% of trader lose money or fail in the markets.
Some say its even more and you will become one of the stats if risk management isn't applied to your trading.
Some of the reasons losses like these exist in trading is down to the fact that aspiring traders don’t put any thought into their risk management tolerance.
We only ever see the upside when we start out and many never do anything to protect themselves from potential losses.
If you never made any money as a trader before or entered the markets before ask yourself the question below before starting out.
How much money am I comfortable losing?
Your first priority with trading is to stay in the game
So manage your risk per trade and total risk at anyone time.
Understand probability and ensure you are comfortable with your maximum exposure at any one time.
Understand the maximal draw down in your testing when finding your edge.
That way it will help you see what a potential losing run you could experience.
PILLAR NUMBER THREE- TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
We need good trading psychology to keep a balanced mind whilst trading, this stops your emotions leading the trade.
The trade outcome cannot be controlled and you MUST detah yourself from each trade outcome.
You will know when your trading emotions are nailed on when you do not 'FEEL ' anything when trading.
If you have 'emtions' with your trades or when trading simply reduce your risk further.
Two emotions that need particular attention are GREED and FEAR.
You need discipline in controlling these two emotions or you are going to end up making losses as a trader.
We all been there we make a few profits confidence kicks in and then greed before you know it your in whole world of pain.
We all be there at some point with fear to and not executing trades due to a fear being in our trading game say from a poor run of form.
Emotions will always be there we are emotional beings, but they will need controlling in order for you to be a successful trader.
Practice developing the emotional control needed to trade successfully.
FINAL THOUHGHTS
Trading requires 100% commitment most see it as a hobby to start with but this can be costly hobby if commitment to trading is lacking.
The sole reason most get into trading is to make money. One purpose of a business is to make money.
Treat trading as a business at the end of the day it's your personal money that's on the line.
Every trader needs to have a disciplined approach to the markets. Following these three steps will help you.
In order to be a successful trader and run a profitable account, it is essential that you have these three pillars in your trading.
Thanks for taking the time to read my idea.
Darren 👍
Risk management in tradingWhen trading on the stock exchange, you need to know at least the basics of risk management, but it is better to understand it professionally, because the main attribute of any transactions made in the financial markets is risk. Without competent, professional management, without risk management, it is impossible to stay in such markets for a long time. To be a successful trader, you must learn to assess risks, balance and reduce them. Only in this case, the capital will not only be saved, but also increased.
Fundamentals of risk management
To properly manage capital, you need to know about the following principles:
1. You should not invest even in the most tempting project more than half of the total capital.
Among financial experts, this principle is also called "don't put your eggs in one basket" or "diversification." That is, in order to successfully continue your activities in the financial market, it is best not to invest all your funds in only one undertaking. More than half of the money must be left for other projects and for the continuation of their work
2. Invest in one position no more than 10-15% of the total amount of funds you have.
Another advice from the category of diversification, which insures against ruin. He warns that one cannot invest a lot of one's funds at once, it is better to distribute them correctly and limit one's risks, and make the profit more stable.
3. The rate of risk in the transaction must not exceed 5% of the total amount of funds you have.
If you follow this principle, then the loss ratio of any trader will be less than 5% of the total capital. Depending on which market and which strategy is used to trade, the percentage of risk can be reduced to 1%.
4. There must be a balance between diversification and concentration.
While diversification is one of the most reliable risk management techniques for reducing risk, even its application must be measured. It is necessary to balance the diversification and concentration of funds. There is no need to turn your portfolio into a "stuffing" of investment instruments, you will only need to open positions in 5-7 groups of instruments. Before compiling a portfolio, it is necessary to determine the correlation between trading instruments. It may be zero, but it is preferred that it be negative. In this case, the future fall of one group of instruments will be compensated by the growth of other groups.
5. Place stop orders.
In order to avoid large losses if the price change is not in your favor, it is best to take care in advance and set Stop Loss. It makes the price fixed, which will allow the trader to close the position at this price. The way the Stop Loss will be set is influenced by market analysis, as well as the personal readiness and ability of the trader to make dangerous, risky, but profitable transactions.
When placing a Stop Loss, you need to correctly assess not only the totality of technical factors, but also the characteristics of personal qualities, in particular, your ability to take risks.
6. Determine the rate of return.
For any operation in the market, it is necessary to determine what the ratio of profit and loss will be. Such a forecast is necessary so that, in the event of undesirable phenomena on the market, the risks are balanced.
In the financial world, a good ratio is 3:1.
The simplest example: if a trader risks $100, then his profit from the transaction must be at least $300 (300:100 is the same as 3:1). If for some reason such a ratio cannot be achieved, then it is better to refuse the deal.
Managing Drawdowns - Do This When You're Underperforming!Hello Traders. It's been awhile since I last uploaded a workshop. Myself as a full-time trader, to be frank, the past 6 months have been tough for my personally. I've gone through some really bad drawdowns, mostly due to my external pressure that's causing me to have lower performance.
In today's topic, I am going to talk about "Drawdowns", which is not something people usually talk about. Social media, Youtube, all these platforms are made to make you 'feel bad'! People are constantly showing off their profits, but who'd willing to really open up to their drawdowns and bad trades?
Drawdowns are inevitable in trading, the only you can eliminate drawdown is to not take any trade/ risk. Make sense?
From my humble six years of trading experience, i realize most of the successful traders have one thing they are very good at - which is managing drawdowns and negative emotions. Think about it, we're all human, we're all a normal trader, why would some constantly achieving such a high performance while some constantly losing?
These are the four simple steps to help you in refining your drawdowns and hopefully get you out of it.
1. Understanding probabilities
- While we're in a drawdown (negativity), it's vital for us to take a step back and look at the numbers. Three things to read - trading plan, strategies data, market condition. If you're whatever you do is wrong, that's usually due your forcing trades during uncertain market environment/ condition, try to re-assess everything.
2. 3R Process (Review, Reflect, Revise)
- This is the most important process i've utilized for years to improve my trading consistency. Review your trading plan and all your journaling, then reflect what's the root of the problems, then find solutions around it. Remember to simplify things! By over-complicating your journaling, trading plan, or trading systems, really don't help things to be better.
3. Eliminate negativity
- Us, especially as a full-time trader, is common for us to blame ourself due to our bad decisions. But sometimes understand that no one wants to be in a drawdown, as it is all probability-based. Who want to lose money? But over the years, i found that the most successful traders out there have one very common personality - Confident.
- Be confident on yourself, that's the easiest element that allows you to execute trades consistently and fearlessly. Believe in your system, the drawdown is only temporary, you still got a long way to go. FInd a solution, fix it.
4. Take a step back - Re-evaluate
- When you're in a drawdown, most likely your rational behaviour and emotion have been negatively impact. So stop trying to force things, take the time you need to refresh your mind, re-set your mental state then come back stronger.
- By not giving yourself time to re-set your mental state, you're not just halting your performance, it could be self-sabotaging as well. Because by that means you're not applying the 3R process, certainly not fixing the problems too.
- Most of the losing streaks have one common losing pattern (that is hidden), so it is our accountability to find our the root of the problem, then frame a set of routine and action plan to solve it.
Hope this short workshop helps you a little bit.
Let me know in the comment section below what's your worst drawdown and how do you fix it!
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the content, and share with someone who'd enjoy reading this.
Calculate your 1% risk per Trading Account to identify 3:1 R:RHello traders:
Lately there are more and more newcomers in my community,
and some are not quite familiar with risk management, especially when it comes to calculating R:R based on 1% of your account size.
Risking 1%, simply means risking 1% of your total account size.
For example, $1000 account size, is $10 per risk at 1% of trading account
$100,000 account size, is $1,000 per risk at 1% of trading account
The goal is to forecast and plan out an entry that will potentially give you at least 3:1 RR per trade or more.
Meaning by risking 1%, $1000 of your $100,000 account, you should look to achieve a $3,000 profit or more, hence giving you 3:1 RR, or +3% profit.
There are many websites that help you to calculate your R:R and position size in relation to your account.
Utilise them to calculate exactly your LOT size position in relation to your SL amount so you have a proper risk management in place.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
Risk Management: How to filter trading opportunities if multiple setups are presenting entries:
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management: What Is Capital Partitioning ? How will it help you as a trader ?
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: How to scale in the impulsive phrase of the market condition?
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account
4️⃣ Trading habits that have to go 👋We've all done it.
At some point in your trading journeys bad habits set in.
Here is my four trading habits you've got to kick in order to stay profitable.
1. Overtrading
We all been there with this one.
We think we have to be in the market all the time.
We don't and its okay to be flat at times.
No strategy should have excessive trade volume.
More time in the markets the more chance of catching a cold.
Overtrading can happen when we also start revenge trading.
You've caught some losses and your trying to get it all back.
Don't overtrading combined with revenge trading is a no no. Take a break.
Trading with no strategy or system
Should never be in the markets with out a plan or system.
More importantly no trader should be entering markets with out a proven edge.
Back test and forward test your strategy and make sure you are entering markets with a proven plan.
Psychology wise it makes trading so much easier to deal with.
No plan will lead to nothing but stress and losses.
No stop loss
Trading with no stop loss is biggest sin of all.
It's just not worth risking huge amounts of your trading capital on the line.
One big crazy move in this uncertain world could do damage.
Plus how can you develop a proven plan if stop loss is not included.
Also moving your stop loss should not be part of your trading.
As you've just altered any strategy being trading into the unknown category.
No risk management
So I've mentioned stop loss but that is only one element of risk management and it doesn't stop there.
Risk management includes many aspects you'll need to consider.
That includes position sizing relative to your capital size.
The psychology behind losing runs and how they are factored into your trading plan.
Work to set and proven trading rules as part of your risk management.
Be sure not to add to losing positions.
Know when you are wrong and move on to the next.
Failure to follow risk management means you will essentially be gambling.
Be realistic in expected returns is a big factor in risk management.
Sticking to all of the above and not allowing these habits to enter your trading will ensure you keep that trading account growing.
Thanks for taking the time to read my idea.
Darren 👍
What Time-Frame Should You Trade?Hey Traders!
One of the reason new traders don't do as well as what they first perceived is sometimes they could be trading a multitude of different things in the wrong style. That doesn't suit the way they are attempting to attack the market, or even their personality.
Today I wanted to have a look into trading the different time frames, what's required? What are the pros and what the cons of each time frame? Now there's a million different ways to trade the financial markets. The time frame you're trading is one of the most important. I wanted to jump in and provide clarity for some of the newer traders that perhaps are trading the wrong market based on what they are actually trying to achieve. I see a lot of people coming into the market to earn profits (obviously) and they come in because they want time freedom, yet they all seem to gravitate towards the scalping one minute, 5 minute and 15 minute charts, which are not going to provide time freedom even when you are successful.
I understand the adrenaline pumping in the intraday setups and then it can help people have and feed that get rich quick feeling that gravitates so many people to the market. But it's time we take it seriously. Let's seriously dive into the pros and the cons and analyze what's actually going to benefit you as a trader moving forward.
INTRADAY
Intraday trading is definitely the most frequent out of all the traders that come into the Forex market. The Forex market advertises intraday trading a lot more because the commissions and spreads are extremely affordable compared to trading other markets. Intraday traders, also known as scalpers, trade the markets on the lower timeframes, usually between the one minute and 15 minute, and trades are held throughout a day session and usually closed by the end of the day. You usually see these traders have your typical eight or nine hour window in which they sit in front of the charts and trade.
There's plenty of pros to intraday trading the high frequency of trades, the great adrenaline pumping feeling, the more opportunities across a range of different markets, you hold no overnight risk and it's very easy to dodge fundamental news. You also less reliant on those one or two big winners to bring in your yearly profits.
In saying that, there's also plenty of cons. Transaction costs are much higher when you're scalping. You have to incorporate spreads and commissions can sometimes eat up your profits. Mentally an emotionally, it is an extremely difficult task. You have to be able to be disciplined enough to make quick reaction decisions with money and risk on the line. As mentioned above, unlike the other trading systems and timeframes, it does require quite a lot of time and concentration throughout a trading session, which is why if you're chasing time freedom, I wouldn't recommend intraday trading.
SWING
Swing trading is a common way of trading, as a lot of people are able to do it part time away from whatever their main career. Swing traders trade the markets on a mid-range time frame, usually between the one hour to the four hour chart (sometimes going a little bit above). Trades are held for hours to a week and they try to profit from the larger moves in the market.
The pros to swing trading? There's plenty of opportunities, plus more than enough time to sit back and thoroughly think through your analysis. The ability to make money while doing something else, which I touched on just before, you can still have your full time job and trade after hours, and then also there are much lower transaction costs compared to intraday trading, as spreads and commissions don't tend to eat up as much as you kind of aiming for those larger moves in the market.
The cons? Swing trading of a sudden introduces this overnight risk. You're going to have to sleep at some point and you may have positions open during that time. That right there is a window of risk where you can not react to the market. I have also found that many people tend to lose sleep while they have open positions. Fundamental news releases start affecting your decision making. You're going to have to incorporate the economic calendar. It does require a lot more patience to be able to hold positions over long periods of time. You will have to be making decisions without your emotions affecting and changing your overall bias.
LONG-TERM
Finally, we start looking at our long-term investors. I call it investing because they tend to trade the markets on a higher range time frame like the daily, weekly or monthly chart. Trades are held throughout week and sometimes months trying to profit from the really large fundamental moves of the market.
The pros to long term investing or trading are you do not have to watch the market in today, the lower timeframes mean nothing to your analysis which allows you to step back and think clearly. You have much fewer transactions which relates to much lower transaction costs. You have more time to think about your trades and much more time to react to different news releases or change in market bias.
The constant long term trading are the very few opportunities per year. Fundamental knowledge is 100% required. There will be people that say you don't need it, but honestly I highly recommend you have a great deal of fundamental knowledge. It requires exponential amounts of patience and the ability to sit on your hands for weeks or months on end. It does require bigger account for more buying power so you can open multiple positions over long periods of time. Finally you will incur frequent losing months as you do not have many trades to bring that initial balance too profit.
I hope that bought a bit of clarity to the multiple timeframe traders and where you're currently sitting. Have a look at what your goals are with actually being involved with trading. Where do you want to get to? Is the time frame you're trading is actually going to allow you to get there? If you're here as a part time trader and you'd love to have that time freedom that so many people advertise. Maybe look for the bigger time frames as you can have that time to go do whatever it is you need, and you don't need to be sitting at a computer desk. If you love intraday trading and scalping and you're willing to put in the hours of work and more or less work a nine to five type role. Your scalp trading is going to be one for you.
Trading Psychology - Long Term Sustainability in the MarketHello traders:
Today I want to discuss an important topic on long term sustainability.
It is no surprise that trading any financial market has proven to be difficult, and stressful.
Many new traders come and go so fast in the industry, and it's often due to the wrong mindset, trading plan, risk management and expectations.
I want to focus on the psychology part of trading for sustainability,
as I have made many trading plan, risk management related videos already, though I can discuss more on mindset and emotion today.
My vision in trading psychology has always been: Consistency, and Sustainability .
These are a few things I tell myself each and everyday in my trading journey to help me stay sustainable in the market.
-I am NOT here to get rich quick, traders who have that mindset often failed fast and quit
-I am here to make a reasonable % return per month, based on proper risk management and trading plan.
-I understand in order to make a ridiculous return per month, it requires over-risking and over-trading,
but it's unsustainable on a larger account size. I do not wish to lose a larger account or ability to trade for larger prop firms’ accounts.
-I understand the uncertainty in the market, any strategy, method and approach will run into drawdowns and losses.
-To prevent revenge trading, over trading and over leveraged, proper mindset and emotion are needed to survive and sustain in the market
-I believe in long term sustainability, and looking to “win the lottery” by going all in on trades. 1
% per account risk with 5-7% return per month is reasonable, achievable, and sustainable in the long run.
These are just a few pointers and reminders I tell myself each and every day.
This year will mark my 9th year in trading, and I am thankful to have gone through all these trading experiences in the past that made me a better trader today.
I am still continuously learning and growing, very happy with the consistent and sustainable approach that I do.
I am sure there are many other traders with different opinions, methods, approaches in trading, with different mindset, expectations and goals.
I respect all trading strategy, perspective and options. At the end of the day, it's up to each individual trader to identify their journey and what method they wish to implement in trading.
I sincerely hope I can help some of the traders to understand the importance of long term sustainability, and that will enable traders to continue to be a part of the financial market for the years and years to come.
Thank you :)
Jojo
Risk Management Educational Video:
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account
Trading Psychology Educational Video:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown!Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown. And there's nothing you can do about it to stop that. However, you can learn how to survive it!
Today I will give you actionable steps, that you can use for the next time the market hit your strategy and you feel that everything is going wrong.
Let's start with an idea of what a drawdown is, and why drawdowns happen.
There are an infinite amount of trading strategies and tools that people use to trade and take advantage of specific market conditions.
Some traders are better in trending markets, they trade breakouts. Other traders feel more comfortable in ranging markets, where they trade quick reversals on key levels.
The Math is simple here. Trending strategies will have a poor performance on ranging markets, while reversal strategies will have a poor performance on trending markets.
Detecting the beginning and end of trending cycles or ranging cycles, is blurry. So, if you agree with that, as I do, you can expect your strategy to start failing at some point. And that's the beginning of the drawdown. (This is true for the best traders in the world, as for the worst traders in the world. Nobody scape drawdowns, the quickest you accept this, the faster you can learn how to handle them properly)
So let's start by saying that drawdowns are situations where your strategy experiences a lasting decline in performance, even if you are doing everything perfectly. Drawdowns, happen because strategies are made to take advantage of specific anomalies that can be found in one part of the market cycle, and when that market cycle finishes, or changes, your strategies become less accurate.
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It's important that you become aware of the Psychological consequences of Draw Downs , so you can have a countermeasure for this. Let's take a look at the most common ones:
1) Decrease in confidence (constant negative thoughts about your system)
2) Fear of entering the next trade.
3) Thinking about changing things in your strategy (deviations from the original plan)
4) Thinking about modifying the risk you are using to cover losses quicker.
5) Ceasing your trading execution, and looking for a new strategy.
ALL THESE ITEMS, are the main situations you may start feeling when going through a drawdown. IF you are going through that, it's important that you understand that you are under a delicate emotional state, where your confidence is low, and you are prone to make more emotional decisions that 99% of the time, tend to increase the drawdown.
So the way we handle drawdowns is by having logical and systematic processes in place instead of emotional ones.
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Here you have actionable steps to handle drawdowns:
STEP 1 : You handle drawdowns by getting ready before they happen, not when they are happening.
This is true for almost all disciplines, not only for trading. Airplanes have clear plans in case things start going wrong, instead of figuring out the problem at the moment, pilots go to the manual book, and use the template for this situation, plus the fact that they trained those situations several times in simulations.
So, if you want to understand what a drawdown situation looks like in your strategy, you MUST go into the past, and when I say this, I'm not saying making a 3 week backtest. You need to go as far as you can in the past, to find that exact moment where your strategy is not working as expected.
How many consecutive stop losses do I have? 3? 5? 15? 20?
How long does this period last until everything goes on track again? 1 month? 3 months? or a year?
These are the kind of answers you are trying to solve. When doing a backtest you are trying to understand two things. The first one is if your strategy has an edge. The second one is how hard you get hit when things go wrong!
STEP 2: Work your risk management around the stats of your system. Imagine we reach the following conclusion "I have a system, that executes 10 setups per month" and the worst-case scenario I have found is 20 consecutive stop losses during 2 months. What I would personally assume is that 20 consecutive stop losses can be 30. So how much capital percentage should I risk on this system so I don't get knocked out if this TERRIBLE scenario happens.
The answer for me would be 1% per setup. Under the assumption of this unique scenario, I would be 30% down, which is something acceptable, compared to the drawdown of conventional investment vehicles like S&P500 where we observed those kinds of declines, in the last years. The main point here is that you need to adapt the risk you are using on the strategy, to the stats of it, and your risk tolerance.
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Let's recap the key aspects of this post.
1) Drawdowns are inevitable, your strategy will be hit by this scenario eventually.
2) Drawdowns cause an emotional disturbance and are the main reason why people make really bad decisions.
3) We handle drawdowns by getting ready in advance. Through backtest, we can understand the edge of our strategy and the worst-case scenarios.
4) We adapt the risk of our strategy, by considering a terrible scenario, like 30 consecutive losses.
This will not eliminate the feeling during this period, but it will bring you a work frame to make logical decisions based on data, instead of emotions. Implementing this type of thinking will make your strategy more robust, it will help you go through these situations, and most importantly it will protect you from making stupid things with a strategy that has an edge, and actually works!
Thanks for reading!
SETTING REALISTIC GOALSHey Traders,
Traders whether they are new to the world of finance or have been involved for a while can benefit greatly from setting specific goals in correlation to what it is they actually want to achieve. There's a million different ways on focusing and goal setting in trading and a lot of people get it wrong straight out of the gates. To this day I still see some professional traders still setting their goals wrong. Traders need to get to focusing on the process of trading, including strategies, structures, journaling, whatever it may be. You have to focus on these processes set in place for yourself regardless of results. This can be so much more effective with getting to an area of consistency compared to just focusing on returns.
One key takeaway I want you to get from this post is all traders, whether novice or whether you're experienced, you should be basing your trading results off of how well thought out the trading plan was, which includes how the trades will be entered, exited, how the money will be managed. That right there is how you measure performance, not the Profit and Loss that comes from the trades.
Process Goal Setting -
Initially, when getting into trading, most traders look for some kind of goal surrounding numbers. We are all here to make money, to make percentage gains. So we tend to gravitate towards setting our goals based on what we want to return, what type of money we want to make, what time are percentage yield we want to bring in. This is damaging in its own right. It's very easy for people to say, OK, I'm going to try an make 1% per day and I'm going to do all my trading to make 1% per day. Then all of a sudden they start planning in the future. "Okay, I make 1% per day everyday for the rest of the year," and then all of a sudden they start calculating what they're expected to return and they give themselves these high hopes in achieving that. But The thing is, what they're not understanding is given their strategy, 1% per day might not be possible. We can't say yes. I'm going to make 1% per day and our strategy not allow that to happen. We may only find one opportunity per week given our strategy, we might only find three opportunities, but we have a 33% win rate. So having these unrealistic, number focused goals are really damaging because no matter how much work you put into it, it may not be possible.
Just like any other business, we need to develop a process. Anna system and our goals need to be set on doing that process an working that system correctly and consistently. So rather setting goals for, I want to make 5% this month. Set goals like I want to only take trades which are an A-Grade set-up in accordance to my strategy. I want to journal every trade for the next 4 weeks. Goals like these make you focus on the process, and I don't know a single business that is successful without a good process. Most businesses don't get profitable for a set period of time. Some even just fail. Without a process and without setting goals aligning with those processes will make your results be based on chance and not based on skill.
Aim for consistency -
When it's early on and you may still be demo trading or trading with a small amount of money, I want you to start aiming for consistency. Now I know that can be hard when running in drawdowns or perhaps even trading a strategy that isn't profitable, but what you can do is aim to be consistent in your process aim to be consistent in your decision making. Aim to be consistent in your risk management. What you will learn is whether your strategy is profitable or not. You will learn a lot about the market. What you will notice after a long period of consistency (Trade for at-least three months) is your areas that need improvement. let's stay consistent and every single day you do the same thing, you trade the same setups, you trade exactly the same way, which a lot of people don't have the self discipline to do. You will notice areas where you can improve on based off of those results. Most people give up and fail because they're not disciplined enough to remain consistent in a strategy which isn't providing them with the unrealistic returns that they're aiming for. If you sit down and you take it seriously for three months, win or lose, I guarantee you will take about 18 steps forward in the right direction compared to just sitting on the balance rope jumping from strategy to strategy.
It is okay to not trade -
This is where consistency and discipline delivers the reality check. The market is constantly moving, sometimes slow, sometimes fast, and that gives people the impression that their strategy is always valid and they always have to be risk on and always have to be trading. This isn't the case. Trading during slow times or making impulsive trades outside of the scope of your plan is such a common issue that I feel the need to point it out in today's message. So many people will try and force their strategy or force themselves to get in and make money when the opportunity isn't there. Have a plan. Understand what it is you want to see. Understand what it is you want to trade and wait patiently until that opportunity arises. Do not try and force trading. It will only result in one way and it will not result in you achieving the goals that you want to achieve.
Start small, then grow -
I witness day in day out, traders just trying to get onto big accounts because they believe if they had more money they would achieve better results. They build the most complex strategies and trade four different strategies across 12 different assets straight out of the gates. This is not an easy game. This is not an easy money grab. It can generate thousands and thousands of dollars if done right. But it has to be done right. The learning process is the exact same. Start small, be a niche trader focused on a few manageable goals. Results will come in time. If you trade according to your trading plan you've remained disciplined and you do everything I spoke about today, you will see improvements and progress. Set goals, realistic goals that have nothing to do with profit and loss, but have everything to do with being a consistent, self disciplined trader and you will see returns come in the long run. If you develop the foundations to being a profitable trader, the profits will be delivered once you get a greater understanding of what needs to be done.
I wish you all great success and cannot wait to hear about your consistency in trading!
ow to Apply Trailing Stop | PRICE ACTION TRADING 📚
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my strategy to apply a trailing stop.
Please, note that I am applying a trailing stop only in trend-following trades and only when a trade is opened on a key level. I trade price action patterns, so the following technique will be appropriate primarily for price action traders. Moreover, my entries are strictly on a retest.
1️⃣
Spotting a price action pattern I am always waiting for its neckline breakout. (if we talk about different channels, then by a neckline we mean its trend line)
Once I see a candle close below/above the neckline, I set my sell/buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss will strictly lie below the lows of the pattern if we buy and above the highs of the pattern if we sell.
2️⃣
Once we are in a trade, you should measure the pattern's range (distance from its high to its low based on wicks) and then project that range from the entry to the direction of the trade.
In the picture, the pattern range and its projection are the underlined blue areas.
Once the price reaches the projection of the pattern's range, you should move your stop loss to entry and make your position risk-free.
Move stop to breakeven in traders' slang.
3️⃣
Then you should let the market go.
📈If you are holding a long position you should let the market retrace and set a higher low and then a new higher high or AT LEAST an equal high. Once these conditions are met you can trail your stop and set it below the last higher low.
📉If you are holding a short position you should let the market retrace and set a lower high and then a new lower low or AT LEAST an equal low. Once these conditions are met you can trail your stop and set it above the last lower high.
Catching a trending market you should trail your stop based on new higher lows / lower highs that the price sets. Occasionally you will catch big winners.
How do you apply a trailing stop?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
What Are My Daily Trading Routine As A Consistent TraderHello everyone:
Today I want to share my personal daily routine in trading.
Many have asked me about how a typical day of mine would be,
and I have no problem sharing that with everyone in hope to provide some examples on how you can construct your own day as well.
It's important to know that each person is unique, has different priorities, business, jobs, family, and other things to attend to.
So it's best to understand that what I propose here is more of a guideline that you can utilize, and ultimately comes down to your own schedule and time.
I am a strong believer in not needing to be on the chart all day long, in order to create a healthy trading lifestyle.
Morning 6-9 AM
-check the chart, go through all my flagged watchlist
-prepare for my weekly and mid-week market update live stream OR private quick daily market updates
-answer any questions within my community, platforms, and areas
-go on with my day (family, other businesses)
-wont need to check the chart again until the roll over time
-will set alerts to monitor any trades, entries..etc
Afternoon 3-5 PM
-after the day is rolled over
-construct a new daily watchlist for the day ahead
-check or uncheck flag in my watchlist to see if there's anything developed or confirmed my forecast/analysis
-answer any questions within my community, platforms, and areas
-go on with my day (family, other businesses)
-wont need to check the chart again until my night time before London Session starts
-will set alerts to monitor any trades, entries..etc
Evening 10-11 PM
-check the chart, go through all my flagged watchlist
-will set alerts to monitor any trades, entries..etc
Always remember to have a healthy trading lifestyle and don't get burn out
Have priorities in life
Thank you all :)
What Does Consistency Mean In Trading ? Hello traders:
Today let's talk about “consistency” in trading.
Many traders understand they need to be consistent, but what exactly is consistent in trading ?
To me, it's not just making consistent “profit”, rather it's being consistent with your trading strategy, risk management, trading psychology, mindset and emotion.
Let's take a look at a few examples of consistency in trading:
Consistency in profits:
More often traders think about hitting a set amount of % return in consistency.
This is certainly one way to look at it, but I would say to challenge ourselves to do more.
Each and every month, the market will develop differently, hence our profits are not gonna always be the “same” each and every month.
Some month with more profits, some month with more losses. We need to have the ability to stay “consistent” no matter what the market condition is.
Consistency in strategy and Trading Plan:
Remember, there are many different trading strategies out there.
The ability to stay “consistent” with your current trading strategy, and not jump from strategy to strategy.
Even if your strategy right now isn't getting any entries available in the current market condition, while others are entering trade, you need to stay consistent with your strategy and let the probability play out.
Understand no strategy can catch every move in the market. Some will catch this particular run, while others will catch other developments.
Consistency in risk management:
When you are at a series of drawdowns and losses, the ability to stay “consistent” with your risk management.
Not risking more than 1%, not entering more than 2-3 trades at a time. No revenge trade, and/or over leverage trade.
Respect your SL and honour the SL. More often traders fall into this stage while they take a number of losses and throw their risk management out the window.
Consistency in mindset and emotion:
When your strategy isn't playing out on a short term, the ability to stay “consistent” and not to start randomly taking trades based on FOMO, Greed and emotion.
Sometimes traders get impatient and feel like waiting for setups to happen is a hassle and they don't want to wait.
This is when they start to rush their trading journey and backfires on them.
Consistency in your goal:
Set goals for your result and progress. The ability to stay “consistent” with yourself and don't let external factors like social media, fake guru, scammers affect you and your goal.
If you plan to have 5% per month profit, then don't let other people affect you in a negative way.
Everyone trades differently, and with different strategy, method and approach. No need to compare and compete with others, rather, with yourself each and every year.
Below I will forward some good educational videos on the above topics that we have discussed:
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account