Mark Douglas’ Guide to Trading Without EmotionDue to the critical role psychology plays in trading success, I’d like to share a summary of The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. This book dives into the mental and emotional skills required for consistent and profitable trading, revealing the mindset needed to stay calm, disciplined, and focused in the markets. Here’s a brief overview of its key insights.
1. Importance of Trader Psychology
Douglas believes that success in financial markets depends more on mindset than on complex strategies. Emotional control and mental discipline are key to avoiding losses.
2. Embracing Risk and Market Rules
The book emphasizes risk acceptance. Traders must understand each trade is uncertain and only one possible outcome in a probability field. Douglas advises establishing clear rules and following them without exception.
3. Taking Full Responsibility
Douglas insists that traders are fully responsible for their market outcomes. Avoiding blame and excuses, traders should own every decision they make.
4. Building a Success-Oriented Mindset
Douglas explains how to create a mental framework that enables traders to make unbiased, emotion-free decisions based on market trends and signals, avoiding fear and greed.
5. Stress Management and Maintaining Calm
The book highlights managing stress and staying calm under pressure. Douglas suggests using mindfulness and focus techniques to stay composed and make sound decisions.
Community ideas
Consistency in DNA #4Not every day is trading day - BIG THREE
When we start this journey to become successful trader, he hear a lot of b*ll sh*t. People are selling courses, signals or mentorships trying to make money off of you. I think there are very little people that are actually real and honest, and just wanna help you. I'm one of the resistance side after getting to know my mentor SCI - from IG tradesbysci - who changed my trading career and I decided to continue his legacy. Maybe some day I will get to do party with him thanks to this XD
Die rich or die trying - OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:NAS100USD OANDA:US30USD
~AS
Possible Redistribution in UBER..!What is Wykoff Distribution Analysis?
Wykoff Distribution Analysis is a technical methodology developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century. It focuses on studying the distribution of trading volume and price action to identify potential support, resistance, and accumulation/distribution phases in a market.
The key principles of Wykoff Distribution Analysis are:
Volume Precedes Price: Trading volume changes often precede price direction changes. Analyzing volume patterns can provide clues about the underlying forces driving the market.
Climactic Events: Climactic volume spikes, either up or down, often mark important turning points in a trend. These are seen as "distribution" or "accumulation" events.
Phases of Activity: Markets tend to go through identifiable phases, such as:
Accumulation: A period of consolidation and gradual price increase on lighter volume.
Mark-Up: A strong uptrend phase on increasing volume.
Distribution: A period of consolidation and gradual price decrease on lighter volume.
Mark-Down: A strong downtrend phase on increasing volume.
Composite Operator: Wyckoff theorized the existence of a "Composite Operator" - a single, dominant entity (or group of entities) that controls the market's overall direction.
Applying Wykoff Analysis to Redistribution
Wykoff Distribution Analysis can be particularly useful for identifying potential redistribution phases in a market. Redistribution occurs when the "smart money" sells to the "dumb money" at the end of an uptrend. Some key signs of redistribution include:
Decreasing volume on up days, increasing volume on down days
Climactic volume spikes at market highs
A series of higher highs and lower lows form a distribution pattern
Divergences between price and momentum indicators
By identifying these distribution patterns, traders can look to enter short positions or reduce long exposure as the market transitions from an uptrend to a downtrend phase.
Advanced Trend Analysis in SMC Smart Money Concept Trading Forex
In this article, we will discuss how to execute advanced market trend analysis with smart money concept trading.
I will teach you how to identify long-term, mid-term and minor trend and how to apply trend analysis in making predictions and trading.
First, let me briefly remind you the basic rules of a trend analysis in SMC trading.
We say that the market is bullish if there are at least 2 bullish impulses with 2 higher highs and a retracement leg between them with a higher low.
The market is bearish if there are at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 lower lows and a retracement leg between them with a lower high.
If the conditions for a bullish or a bearish trend are not met, we say that the market is consolidating .
Bullish violation of the last higher high in a bullish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS.
Bearish violation of the last higher low in a bullish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH.
Bearish violation of the last lower low in a bearish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS.
Bullish violation of the last lower high in a bearish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH.
BoS signifies a trend continuation.
CHoCH signifies a trend violation.
In order to apply these rules on a price chart, we perceive the market movements as the set of impulse and retracement legs.
However, with such a method of analysis a big question arises: what is exactly is the impulse leg, how strong and long it should be. Which price fluctuations can be a part of the impulse and which should be excluded.
Look at the example above. A price action on AUDCAD can be perceived as one single bullish impulse or a combination of 3 bullish impulses and retracements and a combination of multiple impulses and retracements.
Which way of analysis is correct?
The fact is that the price action analysis on each chart is correct . The only difference between them is the perspective .
From a long-term perspective , the entire price movement on the chart is a one single impulse.
From a mid-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend in 3 bullish impulses.
From a short-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend and started to consolidate and trade in sideways for some time, resuming the growth then.
With advanced SMC trend analysis, you should learn to perceive a price chart not only as a combination of impulse and retracement legs, but also as a combination of long-term, mid-term and short-term trends and movements.
Depending on your trading style, such a reasoning can be applied on any time frame.
Look at AUDJPY pair on an hourly time frame.
From a long-term perspective, the pair is trading in a bearish trend.
Studying in details the last bullish impulse, we can perceive it as a minor bullish trend with its confirmed violation after a Change of Character.
Let's discuss another example.
EURNZD is trading in a clear long-term bullish trend on a daily.
Zooming in the chart, we can also analyze the last bullish impulse in a long-term bullish trend as a mid-term bullish trend.
At the same time, if we analyze the recent minor movements, we can spot a confirmed minor bearish trade on the pair.
Why do we need such an in-depth market trend analysis?
Always remember that a global trend is always born from a minor trend. Minor trend analysis will help you to identify local reversal, trend following signals much earlier.
The fact that EURNZD started to trade in a minor bearish trend, being globally bullish, can be an important warning sign for us.
You can see that after some time the pair started to fall rapidly.
A minor bearish trend continued, a mid-term bullish trend was violated and a correction started in a global bullish trend.
Your ability to correctly analyze different market perspectives is essential for making accurate predictions.
The trend analysis rules and events that we discussed are more than enough for successful trading any time frame and any market.
Study trend analysis, learn to identify global, mid-term and minor trend and good luck in your trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Retail Traders Are Waking Up | Here’s How to Spot the SignsWhy Are Our Parents Texting Us About Bitcoin? It’s Getting Weird
Thanks to crypto,now I know my entire extended family and even my ancestors!
Some of them hadn’t spoken to me in a thousand years, but now they’re calling me “Bruh”
(And no, I’m not a vampire, by the way!)
Here’s why I think a retail fueled wave might be about to hit the crypto market
1/ A spike in Google searches for "crypto"
2/ Coinbase App Store rankings
The Coinbase app just shot up from #155 to #18 in two days
3/ Dogecoin and Squirrel on the rise
Retail traders have a soft spot for Doge , Cardano and memecoins.
Guess which top 10 tokens surged the most in the last week? bunch of retail traders who’ve held CRYPTOCAP:DOGE and CRYPTOCAP:ADA since the last bull run are probably getting alerts that their investments are bouncing back.(That’s one way to grab their attention)
4/ Bitcoin featured on Bloomberg's front page
Mainstream news = mainstream visibility = more pump = more lambo!
5/ Texts from our parents ( Are you winning son? )
The unique skill of being both endearing and critical at once a true dad specialty
6/ Ronald McDonald has joined the chat…
McDonald's just teased a new collaboration with Doodles (yes, the NFT project). It kicked off last week…Now, any one of these signs might not mean much alone
But taken together, they start to tell a different story.
Falling air pressure, strengthening winds, darkening skies… it looks like a retail storm might be on the horizon..Brace yourselves! The good news? This time might not be different.
Earlier in the year, there was concern about a potential “left translated cycle.”
(Translation: crypto prices rising faster than expected).
At first, that sounds great! (Who wouldn’t want a quicker path to wealth?)
But the catch is, the shorter the window for prices to peak, the harder it is to time safely
(you’d have days instead of weeks or months to sell near the top)
When Bitcoin reached all time highs ahead of the halving in March (a first), many traders started feeling “left-translated” jitters. If we stay on this track and hit the same average returns as the past three halving years, we could be looking at a ~$ 126k Bitcoin by year’s end!
Here’s hoping this time really isn’t different! BTC just hit a new ATH again!! STOP
Copper as a leading indicator for recessionToday, I was analyzing the charts, trying to determine whether a recession might be on the horizon, as the levels at which the U.S. indices are trading don’t seem sustainable to me at all. While scanning through various global indices— including the DAX, which I believe has already peaked —I also looked at copper as a leading indicator.
This led me to the idea for this educational article.
Using Copper Prices as a Leading Economic Indicator: A Guide to Spotting Recession Signals
Copper, often called "Dr. Copper," is a valuable leading indicator in economic analysis due to its widespread use in various industries. Because copper is essential in construction, manufacturing, and electrical applications, its price is highly sensitive to economic conditions. By monitoring copper price trends, you can gain insights into future economic performance and potentially spot signs of an approaching recession.
Here’s how to interpret and use copper prices as an early signal of economic health.
1. Why Copper is a Reliable Economic Indicator :
Copper’s demand is closely linked to economic activity. In times of economic growth, the demand for copper rises, as it’s used in buildings, infrastructure, electronics, and automobiles. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, demand for copper falls, and prices usually decline as a result.
Copper’s price trends are therefore often seen as a reliable barometer of economic health, sometimes predicting recessions before official economic data confirms it. This makes copper prices a useful tool for investors, businesses, and economists to anticipate changes in the economic cycle.
2. Tracking Copper Price Trends as Economic Signals :
To use copper prices as a recession indicator, pay attention to both long-term and short-term price trends:
Long-Term Trends: Sustained declines in copper prices may indicate weakening industrial demand, which can signal a broader economic slowdown.
Short-Term Drops: A sharp drop over a shorter period might suggest that an economic contraction could be imminent, as industries are potentially scaling back production due to reduced demand.
3. Analyzing Copper Prices Alongside Other Economic Indicators :
Copper prices on their own provide valuable insight, but they’re more powerful when considered alongside other economic indicators:
Copper vs. GDP Growth: Copper prices often move in tandem with GDP growth. A consistent drop in copper prices can signal a slowdown in GDP, providing an early recession warning.
Copper vs. Manufacturing Data: Manufacturing output and copper prices are highly correlated. When copper prices fall alongside declining manufacturing data, this suggests weakening demand across multiple sectors, reinforcing recessionary signals.
Copper vs. Other Commodities: When copper prices drop while other commodities like gold rise (a safe-haven asset), it may highlight investors’ concerns about future economic health. A divergence in copper and gold prices can serve as an additional recession indicator.
4. Observing Copper’s Relationship with Bond Yields and Stock Markets
Copper and Bond Yields: A simultaneous drop in copper prices and bond yields often reflects reduced growth expectations and lowered inflation forecasts, both of which can be early signals of economic contraction.
Copper and Stock Markets: Copper price declines can also precede downturns in the stock market, especially in sectors like industrials and materials that rely heavily on strong economic activity. A falling copper price can thus foreshadow declines in stocks tied to economic growth.
5. Considering Global Influences on Copper Demand
Copper’s demand is significantly influenced by global economic conditions, particularly in major economies like China, the largest consumer of copper worldwide:
China’s Economic Health: Since China consumes a large portion of the world’s copper, changes in its economy directly impact copper prices. A slowdown in China’s economy could indicate lower global demand, often preceding a broader economic downturn.
Supply Chain Factors: While copper prices largely reflect demand, they can also be influenced by supply chain disruptions, such as mining issues or trade restrictions. It’s important to distinguish these factors from demand-based price changes when interpreting copper’s economic signals.
Practical Tips for Using Copper as a Recession Signal:
Here are some actionable steps for using copper prices as an early warning of economic downturns:
Establish Price Decline Thresholds: Significant declines in copper prices (e.g., 15-20% over a few months) have historically preceded recessions. Establishing such thresholds based on historical data can help signal potential slowdowns.
Combine Copper with Other Indicators: Look at copper prices alongside yield curves, consumer confidence data, and manufacturing PMI. Copper price declines are often more reliable when they coincide with other recessionary indicators.
Stay Updated on Market Reports: Monitoring industry reports, forecasts, and economic analyses regarding copper can provide insight into whether price changes are due to demand shifts or short-term supply issues.
Conclusion:
Copper prices act as a reliable economic gauge because they are so tightly linked to industrial activity. Sustained declines in copper prices often signal a reduction in demand, hinting at a possible economic downturn before other indicators confirm it. By observing copper prices in conjunction with other economic signals, investors, analysts, and businesses can better anticipate recessions and make informed decisions based on early economic insights.
By integrating copper price trends into your economic analysis toolkit, you can gain a clearer picture of potential economic slowdowns, giving you an advantage in strategic planning and investment decisions.
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part OneIn ARZ Trading System, we use multiple EMAs to analyze the market, as follows:
1. 200EMA, 100EMA, & 50EMA: Analyze the big picture (Major Structure). What is happening in higher timeframes? Long Term Bulls are stronger or Bears?
2. 20EMA, & 13EMA: Analyze the trading timeframe (minor structure). When to enter a trade and how to manage it? Short Term Bulls are stronger or Bears?
Points to consider:
1. If an EMA is flat, it's not a valid S&R and we expect the price to break it easily. If not, it'll act as a strong S&R and we expect a strong movement after Pullback on it.
2. Based on the period of Flat EMA, the fluctuation around it could be big and bigger. It means, a flat 20EMA has a smaller range of fluctuation and shorter duration of ranging market around it, in compare to 200EMA which generally is wider and longer.
3. If EMAs are close to each other, cannot act as S&R. Only when there is some distance between them we can see them as S&R that can encapsulate price between them for a period of time.
Here we see a strong bullish entry after hitting Flat 200EMA and 50% LTP. If cross and closed above all EMAs, a Pump is in hand!
To be continued...
Navigating High Volatility Periods in TradingMarket volatility is a critical aspect of trading, and during certain periods—particularly around significant news events—this volatility becomes more pronounced. The graphic titled *"The Cycle of Market Volatility"* effectively captures the stages involved in how markets react and stabilize after major news events. These events, such as red folder news releases, economic reports, and elections, are pivotal moments that traders need to approach with both caution and strategy.
The Cycle of Market Volatility
1. News Events Occur
High-impact news, known as *red folder news*, includes economic data releases such as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), central bank interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and major political developments like elections. These events are known for triggering swift market movements and increased volatility.
2. Market Reaction
Once the news breaks, markets tend to react swiftly. Prices may shoot up or down as traders digest the new information and position themselves accordingly. The initial reaction is often driven by the big institutional players, and retail traders are frequently caught up in the momentum.
3. Media Amplification
After the initial market response, the media plays a significant role in amplifying the event. Analysts, news outlets, and social media start discussing the potential ramifications, which often leads to further market movement. Speculation and public sentiment can magnify the volatility.
4. Trader Response
As traders react to both the news and the media coverage, there can be an increase in trading volumes. Some traders might attempt to capitalize on the price swings, while others might exit their positions to avoid losses. Emotions like fear and greed tend to dominate in this phase, making it essential for traders to stick to their strategies.
5. Market Stabilization
Eventually, after the initial surge in price movement and emotional trading subsides, the market begins to stabilize. Once the news has been fully priced in and the dust settles, the markets may find equilibrium, and normal trading conditions resume—until the next major event.
Trading During High Volatility: Pros and Cons
Trading during high volatility events such as red folder news releases and elections can be both rewarding and dangerous. Let's explore some of the **pros and cons** of trading during these periods:
Pros
Large Profit Opportunities
Volatility creates sharp price movements, and for traders who can accurately predict market direction, these swings can translate into significant profits in a short period. For example, interest rate announcements or jobs data releases can cause currencies to move hundreds of pips in minutes.
Increased Liquidity
High-impact events often bring more participants into the market, leading to increased liquidity. This means trades can be executed more quickly, and spreads (the difference between bid and ask prices) may narrow, offering better trading conditions for short-term traders.
Clear Trends
Often after a red folder event, markets establish clearer trends. Whether it’s a sharp bullish or bearish move, traders may find it easier to follow the trend and capitalize on the momentum rather than dealing with the choppier markets typically seen in low-volatility periods.
Cons
Whipsaw Risk
One of the biggest dangers of trading during high volatility is the potential for whipsaw movements. The market may initially react one way, only to reverse sharply after further analysis or new information comes to light. This can lead to traders being stopped out or suffering losses as prices swing unpredictably.
Wider Spreads
While liquidity can increase, the initial reaction to major news can cause spreads to widen dramatically. This can eat into potential profits and make it difficult for traders to enter or exit positions at favorable prices.
Emotional Trading
News events tend to stir up emotions in traders—especially fear and greed. These emotions can cloud judgment, causing traders to deviate from their trading plans, make impulsive decisions, or over-leverage themselves in pursuit of quick gains.
Gaps in the Market
High-impact news can cause gaps in the market, where price jumps from one level to another without trading in between. This can be hazardous for traders who are in open positions, as stop-loss orders may not be filled at the expected price, leading to larger losses than anticipated.
Key Red Folder Events and How to Approach Them
Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions
Perhaps the most influential news events, interest rate decisions by central banks like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank can cause massive volatility in Forex markets. Traders need to watch not just the decision itself but also the accompanying statements and guidance for future monetary policy.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Released monthly, the U.S. NFP report often leads to sharp movements in the USD and related currency pairs. The NFP provides insights into the health of the U.S. economy and is closely watched by traders around the world.
Elections and Political Events
Elections, referendums, and major geopolitical developments (such as US elections last week) can cause sustained volatility in markets. Traders should be particularly cautious around these events as outcomes can be highly unpredictable, and market reactions may be extreme.
Inflation Reports
Inflation data can significantly impact market expectations for interest rates, which in turn influences currency values. Central banks tend to adjust their monetary policy based on inflation trends, making these reports crucial for traders.
How to Trade Volatile Events Safely
Have a Clear Plan
Don’t enter trades during volatile periods without a well-thought-out strategy. Make sure to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels and be prepared for sudden market reversals.
Consider Waiting for the Dust to Settle
Instead of trading the immediate market reaction, some traders prefer to wait until the news has been fully digested. By waiting for clearer trends to form after the event, traders can reduce their risk of getting caught in whipsaw price movements.
Practice Proper Risk Management
With greater volatility comes greater risk, so it’s crucial to limit your exposure. Reduce your position sizes and avoid over-leveraging during these times. Risk management is vital to surviving and thriving in high-volatility environments.
Stay Informed
Understanding the context behind major news events is critical. Following economic calendars, staying updated on geopolitical developments, and listening to expert analysis can help traders navigate high-volatility markets more effectively.
Conclusion
Trading during high volatility periods can present both opportunities and risks. While the potential for quick profits is tempting, the unpredictability of the markets during these times requires discipline, a solid strategy, and strong risk management. Understanding the *Cycle of Market Volatility* can help traders better anticipate how markets react to red folder news and major events, allowing them to make more informed trading decisions.
Application of Quantum Analysis in ForexApplication of Quantum Analysis in Forex
Quantum mechanics, once the realm of advanced physics, is making waves in the forex trading world. As technology evolves, the principles of quantum analysis are set to revolutionise trading strategies, offering profound insights into market movements. Dive in to learn about quantum AI, quantum analysis, and the challenges going forward.
Quantum Analysis: Breaking It Down
Quantum analysis draws inspiration from quantum mechanics, the branch of physics that delves into the behaviour of particles at their most microscopic levels. Its principles challenge the classical views of physics, introducing concepts that, at first glance, might seem counterintuitive. Three foundational principles drive quantum mechanics: superposition, entanglement, and quantum tunnelling.
Superposition posits that a quantum system can exist in multiple states simultaneously until observed. This idea can be translated to market scenarios, where multiple outcomes are possible until a decisive market event occurs.
Entanglement describes how particles, once interconnected, remain linked even when separated by vast distances. In trading, this could symbolise the interconnectedness of global markets.
Lastly, quantum tunnelling pertains to a particle's ability to pass through barriers. Analogously, in forex, this can represent unexpected market shifts or breakthroughs.
The Intersection of Quantum Computing and Forex
Quantum computing harnesses the unique capabilities of quantum mechanics to process information at rates unimaginable with classical computers. In forex, where milliseconds can mean significant profit or loss, the unparalleled speed and precision of quantum computers present groundbreaking potential.
Quantum FX trading emerges at this juncture, leveraging quantum computational power to analyse vast datasets rapidly, predict market movements, and optimise strategies. As these computational behemoths become more mainstream, they have the potential to reshape the landscape of forex trading, offering traders more refined tools to navigate the ever-fluctuating currency markets.
In today’s markets, a reliable trading platform is vital to cover opportunities on numerous markets. FXOpen’s advanced TickTrader is just that, offering over 1,200 technical analysis tools ready to help you navigate the markets.
Quantum AI: What Is It?
Quantum AI integrates the principles of quantum mechanics with artificial intelligence, creating systems that can process information and make predictions with unprecedented accuracy. In the world of forex, where decisions often hinge on the slightest of market fluctuations, the introduction of quantum AI stands poised to be a game-changer.
A notable extension of this is in quantum AI crypto* trading. The volatile nature of cryptocurrencies*, combined with the vast amount of data from different blockchains, presents a challenging landscape. However, a quantum AI system can analyse this data in real-time, extracting patterns and insights that might elude traditional analytical tools. By doing so, it offers traders an edge, allowing for strategies that are more responsive to rapid shifts in the crypto* market.
Furthermore, the adaptive learning capabilities of a quantum AI trading app can evolve its predictive models continuously. This means that as market dynamics change, the system refines its algorithms, ensuring its predictions remain relevant and accurate. For forex traders, this translates to more informed decision-making and the potential for increased profitability in an ever-evolving market landscape.
Challenges and Considerations
- Hardware Limitations: Quantum computers, still in their nascent stage, face challenges in terms of stability and scalability.
- Scalability Concerns: As forex data grows, ensuring quantum systems can handle increased loads is crucial.
- Accuracy: While quantum AI boasts enhanced predictive capabilities, it's not infallible. Misinterpretations can lead to significant losses.
- Adoption Barriers: High costs and complexity can deter many institutions from integrating these technologies.
- Lack of Expertise: The niche nature of quantum tech means there's a shortage of experts proficient in its application in forex.
The Bottom Line
While the prospects of quantum forex trading offer revolutionary possibilities, full-scale adoption still seems a ways off, given current challenges. As the industry navigates this evolving frontier, traders keen on staying ahead might consider taking advantage of advanced trading platforms. To embark on this journey, open an FXOpen account and embrace the future of trading.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
Trade explanation and more downside expectedHi traders, welcome to this trade breakdown. Its situation has played out and I traded with decent gains. I'm still in the position and I expect more downside coming however my TP is in the 50% of the CLS range.
The goal of this post is to show you briefly my unique method of reading the market by understanding CLS.
Let's put it all together 🧩
Follow me I will be posting more educational posts like this one and don't hesitate to ask with any questions in the comment.
📍HTF Level - Weekly breaker / FVG
📍Range created, 2nd candle manipulated to the HTF level and closed inside the range.
📍The third weekly candle retested the 50% of the wick there I entered at 199.148 - the candle closed inside the range which is another confirmation.
📍4th week opened and retested the range with manipulation above the Asia session.
At this moment, I took partial profit and SL is on the break even.
📍 HTF view
What is CLS?
You may never hear about them.
Just find out about them on Google or their website. This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are simply market maker.
I hope this educational post helps you at least briefly understand my method.
Dave FX Hunter
Triple Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 5/8 Bullish Chart PatternsTriple Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 5/8 Bullish Chart Patterns
A bullish triple bottom is a reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the start of an upward trend. Here's a breakdown:
Three Lows: The pattern is characterized by three distinct lows that are roughly equal in price. These lows form after a significant downtrend, indicating strong support at that level.
Rallies Between Lows: Each low is separated by two intermediate rallies that create peaks. These peaks form the resistance level known as the neckline.
Neckline: The horizontal line connecting the highs of the intermediate rallies is called the neckline. This is a crucial resistance level that the price must break through to confirm the pattern.
Breakout: A breakout above the neckline, typically accompanied by increased trading volume, confirms the triple bottom pattern. This breakout signifies a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Price Target: The expected price target is often calculated by measuring the distance from the pattern's lowest low to the neckline and projecting that distance upwards from the breakout point.
Traders view the triple bottom as a strong indication that the selling pressure has been exhausted and that buyers are starting to gain control, suggesting a potential upward price movement.
Bullish Double Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 4/8 Bullish PatternsGive me the description for a bullish double-bottom
A bullish double bottom is a powerful reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of an upward trend. Here’s how it forms:
Two Troughs: The pattern starts with a significant price decline, forming a low (the first bottom). The price then rebounds to create a peak (the middle of the "W" shape) but soon declines again to form a second bottom roughly at the same price level as the first bottom. This double bottom resembles the letter "W."
Neckline: The horizontal line that connects the peak of the middle rebound is called the neckline. This is a key resistance level that the price needs to break through to confirm the pattern.
Breakout: A breakout above the neckline, typically accompanied by increased volume, confirms the double bottom pattern and signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Price Target: The estimated price target for the upward move is usually determined by measuring the distance from the bottoms to the neckline and projecting this distance upwards from the point of breakout.
Traders view the double bottom as a strong indication that the previous downtrend has exhausted and the bulls are gaining control, leading to a potential significant upward movement.
Ascending Triangle Pattern Tutorial: 3/8 Bullish PatternsAscending Triangle Pattern Tutorial: 3/8 Bullish Patterns
An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern that signals the potential for an upward breakout. Here's how it forms:
Flat Upper Trendline: The upper trendline is flat, indicating a resistance level where the price consistently faces selling pressure and fails to move higher.
Rising Lower Trendline: The lower trendline is ascending, showing higher lows as buyers step in at increasingly higher prices.
Price Convergence: The price action gets squeezed between the two trendlines, leading to a tightening range.
Breakout: Eventually, the price breaks above the resistance level, indicating a continuation of the upward trend. This breakout is typically accompanied by a surge in volume.
Ascending triangles are popular among traders because they offer clear entry and exit points. The height of the triangle, measured from the base to the horizontal resistance, can be used to estimate the potential price target following the breakout.
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SPRO - A perfect example of fundamental investment Fundamental Investment Example:
A company like SPRO with Price / Book<1, Price/Sale<1, LT debt/ Equity <0.1 and so on . I must say that this can be a perfect investment opportunity for a fundamental investor….. I hope this helps you to learn.
This is for an educational purpose only.
Using a Hanging man candlewww.tradingview.com If you are knowledgeable about Candle patterns, you would know what a hanging man candle is. As defined by Steve Nison, it is a candle with small real body with a long lower shadow that is at least 2x the height of the real body, and MUST follow or be in an uptrend. A hanging man candle can be considered a potential bearish reversal if and only if there is bearish confirmation immediately following the hanging man candle itself.
But, a bullish continuation candle immediately following the hanging man, can be a powerful bullish momentum signal.
So, since we are hitting many highs in the markets, we here at Candlecharts.com use hangingman candles to see if we are getting a reversal, or continuation.
So, since this has been working well, we continue to use Nison Candle Scanner to scan for these hanging man candles in multiple markets: www.candlecharts.com
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern what is it/ how to draw it? 2/8Symmetrical Triangle Pattern what is it/ how to draw it? 2/8 Bullish Charting Patterns
A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern that forms when the price of an asset converges with two trendlines that are moving towards each other, creating a triangular shape. Here’s how it works:
Converging Trendlines: The upper trendline is formed by connecting the descending highs, and the lower trendline is formed by connecting the ascending lows. These trendlines converge at a point called the apex.
Volume Decrease: As the pattern develops, trading volume typically decreases, indicating a period of consolidation and indecision in the market.
Breakout: Eventually, the price breaks out from the triangle, which can occur in either direction – upwards or downwards. The direction of the breakout often dictates the future trend of the asset.
Symmetrical triangles are considered continuation patterns, meaning they usually signal that the prevailing trend (upward or downward) before the pattern will continue after the breakout. Traders often use the height of the triangle (the distance between the initial high and low points) to estimate the potential price target following the breakout.
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Stay tuned for the other 6 BULLISH CHARTING PATTERNS
What is a BULL Flag Charting Pattern and How to draw it? 1/8This is video 1/8 of this series of BULLISH Chart Patterns.
A bull flag is a continuation pattern that appears in a strong uptrend, signaling that the prevailing upward trend may continue. Here's how it looks:
Flag Pole: A sharp, steep rise in price forms the flag pole.
Flag: A period of consolidation with lower highs and lower lows, forming a flag that slopes against the prevailing uptrend.
Breakout: A strong move upwards out of the flag, confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
The bull flag pattern is popular among traders because it provides clear entry and exit points and is relatively easy to identify. It's a great indicator for momentum traders looking to capitalize on the continuation of a bullish trend.
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Understanding GBPUSDToday we will be taking a closer look at understanding GBPUSD .
GBP
-no global business
-risk currency
-more linked to the UK economy, politics, central banking
USD
-global business currency
-safe haven globally
-Petrodollar
UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENCY PAIR
-we have to understand that within this pair “ GBPUSD ” one is a “ risk ” currency ( GBP ). ( USD ) is a “ safe haven currency ” and is also known as the world reserve currency. During times of economic uncertainty our doubt , or during any periods of times where we have more $ strength, which can be induced by the FED central banking, interest rate hikes and so forth, we will always have the $ dominate, even if the other currency can have some short term strength.
THE USD IS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY
What does this mean?
-this means that the majority of INTERNATIONAL business is denominated in USD. We can see this very relevant when we are looking at the OIL industry and how oil is always exchanged in USD. Hence the name “PETRODOLLAR”.
Crypto Options Trading: A Beginner's GuideCrypto options trading is emerging as a popular way for traders to hedge risk, amplify profits, and diversify their trading strategies. As the cryptocurrency market matures, options trading is gaining traction among both traditional and crypto-native traders who seek a new way to leverage the volatility of digital assets. Here’s an in-depth look at what crypto options are, why they’re compelling, and how to navigate this evolving market.
What Are Crypto Options?
In simple terms, a crypto option is a financial contract that gives the trader the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset (like Bitcoin or Ethereum) at a predetermined price, known as the “strike price,” within a specific time frame. Options can either be:
Call Options: These give the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price.
Put Options: These allow the holder to sell the underlying asset at the strike price.
Crypto options can be a valuable tool to manage risk in a market characterized by high volatility. The premium paid for an option can be significantly lower than the outright purchase of the cryptocurrency, allowing traders to gain exposure with limited capital at risk.
Why Trade Crypto Options?
The benefits of trading crypto options go beyond just leveraging price movements. Here are some core reasons why crypto options have become attractive:
Hedging: Options allow investors to hedge against adverse price movements. For example, a Bitcoin holder can buy put options to offset potential losses if Bitcoin’s price drops.
Leverage: Options provide leverage, allowing traders to control a large position with relatively small capital. This magnifies potential gains, though it also increases potential losses.
Profit in All Market Conditions: Options strategies can be designed for various market conditions—bullish, bearish, or even sideways. This flexibility can be a game-changer in the highly volatile crypto market.
Limited Downside Risk: When buying options, the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, making it a potentially safer way to speculate than futures or spot trading.
Key Terms in Crypto Options Trading
Before diving into trading strategies, it's essential to understand the core terms:
Premium: The cost of purchasing the option, which the buyer pays to the seller.
Strike Price: The predetermined price at which the option can be exercised.
Expiration Date: The date at which the option contract expires.
In-the-Money (ITM): When an option has intrinsic value. For example, a call option is ITM if the underlying asset’s price is above the strike price.
Out-of-the-Money (OTM): When an option has no intrinsic value. For example, a put option is OTM if the asset’s price is above the strike price.
Mention the key terms related to the option shown in the image below.
Types of Crypto Options
Crypto options primarily fall into two types:
American Options: These can be exercised at any time before expiration.
European Options: These can only be exercised at expiration.
Most crypto exchanges offering options (such as CoinCall, Binance) focus on European-style options due to their simplicity and cost efficiency.
Popular Crypto Options Trading Strategies
Long Call: This involves buying a call option when you expect the price to rise. The upside potential is unlimited, while the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid.
Long Put: Ideal for bearish outlooks, buying a put option allows you to profit from a price decline. Again, the maximum risk is limited to the premium.
Covered Call: For this, you hold a long position in the asset and sell a call option. This generates income through the premium while capping potential gains if the price rises beyond the strike price.
Protective Put: Similar to a stop-loss, a protective put allows you to hold a long position while buying a put option to protect against downside risk.
Straddle: A strategy for high volatility, a straddle involves buying a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration. Profits occur if the price moves significantly in either direction.
Strangle: Like a straddle but with different strike prices for the call and put options. It’s a good strategy if you expect volatility but aren’t sure of the direction.
Risks of Crypto Options Trading
While crypto options trading provides flexibility, it comes with risks:
Volatility Risk: Crypto markets are highly volatile, and while this is favorable for some options strategies, extreme fluctuations can result in significant losses.
Liquidity Risk: Not all crypto options have high liquidity, especially for less popular assets. This can lead to wider spreads and difficulty in executing trades at desired prices.
Complexity: Options trading requires a deep understanding of various strategies and how options prices react to market changes. Without adequate knowledge, traders can incur losses.
Time Decay: Options lose value as expiration approaches (especially for OTM options). This phenomenon, known as “theta decay,” can erode potential profits if the market doesn’t move favorably soon enough.
Key Metrics in Crypto Options: The “Greeks”
To understand the dynamics of options pricing, traders should familiarize themselves with the “Greeks,” which measure the sensitivity of the option’s price to various factors.
Delta: Measures how much the option’s price changes with a $1 change in the underlying asset’s price.
Gamma: Measures the rate of change of delta over time.
Theta: Represents time decay, showing how much value the option loses each day as it nears expiration.
Vega: Measures the sensitivity of the option’s price to changes in volatility.
Rho: Indicates how much the option’s price changes with a change in interest rates, which is often minimal in the crypto space.
Crypto options trading provides a valuable addition to a trader’s toolkit, offering flexibility and an alternative way to profit from market volatility. Whether you’re looking to hedge a position, profit from volatility, or speculate with defined risk, crypto options can be highly beneficial. Yet, success in options trading doesn’t come from guesswork; it requires a solid understanding of the mechanics, diligent strategy testing, and constant risk assessment. For those who put in the time to learn and adapt, crypto options trading can open new avenues for profit in an ever-evolving market.
Recognizing and Overcoming the Belief in Controllable OutcomesIn trading, the illusion of control bias is a cognitive trap where traders believe they can influence outcomes that are, in reality, beyond their control. This misconception can lead to risky behaviors, overconfidence, and trading errors that ultimately hurt performance. Recognizing and managing this bias is essential for any trader who wants to make sound, objective decisions in a largely unpredictable environment. Below, I’ll cover some approaches to understanding and overcoming the illusion of control in trading to help you stay grounded and focused.
1️⃣ Understanding the Illusion of Control Bias: Origins and Impact on Trading
The illusion of control bias stems from a psychological tendency where people believe their actions directly influence outcomes, even when they don’t. In trading, this can manifest as a belief that one can control market movements by timing trades or reading charts “correctly.” This bias often leads traders to make overconfident decisions based on a false sense of power. For example, traders might continue doubling down on a losing position because they “feel” they can predict a turnaround. Recognizing that trading outcomes are ultimately probabilistic helps counter this bias.
2️⃣ Identifying Common Triggers of Control Bias in Market Contexts
Market conditions often bring out the illusion of control. Volatile markets, economic events, and price trends can encourage traders to believe they have some insight or edge in controlling outcomes. For instance, a trader might think that by analyzing a chart pattern, they can influence the outcome of a trade. But no matter the experience level, all market variables cannot be controlled. Reflecting on such instances and identifying specific triggers, like earnings announcements or economic reports, helps traders develop awareness and avoid illusion-driven decisions.
3️⃣ Differentiating Between Influence and Control in Trading Decisions
One effective way to mitigate control bias is by distinguishing between having influence over decisions and controlling outcomes. Traders can influence which assets they choose, their entry and exit points, and risk management strategies, but they can’t control how the market will react. Practicing this mindset requires a shift in focus: rather than concentrating on whether an outcome aligns with expectations, traders can measure success based on disciplined adherence to their strategy, regardless of short-term market swings.This is usually one of the toughest concepts for me to drive home for inexperienced students.
4️⃣ Analyzing Historical Examples of Control Bias in Trading Failures
History offers countless examples of how control bias has affected trading outcomes. For instance, during the tech boom in the early 2000s, many traders believed they could predict stock prices due to a sustained period of upward movement. When the bubble burst, the illusion of control was shattered for many who hadn’t properly hedged against risk. Similarly, learning from past mistakes—both personal and from case studies—can prevent a similar mentality. Reviewing such events serves as a practical exercise to remain grounded.
5️⃣ Building a Routine of Objective Decision-Making
A structured, rules-based approach to trading can help keep control bias at bay. For example, a well-designed trading plan that includes entry and exit strategies, risk levels, and routine performance reviews can remind traders that long term, sustainable and consistent success isn’t based on market control but on disciplined execution. Daily reflection exercises, where one reviews both winning and losing trades objectively, help isolate controllable factors (like trade size) from uncontrollable ones (like price fluctuations), grounding decisions in a factual, less emotion-driven framework.
6️⃣ Implementing Techniques for Emotional Detachment
Another approach to overcoming the illusion of control is to foster emotional detachment from each trade outcome. Techniques like mindfulness and meditation are effective for staying present, reducing emotional responses, and distancing oneself from personal attachment to outcomes. For example, practicing meditation before trading hours can help keep emotions in check and remind traders to focus on their plan rather than on “winning” a trade. Developing these techniques trains the mind to treat each trade as an execution of strategy rather than a conquest.
7️⃣ Leveraging Performance Metrics to Replace Bias with Data
By tracking performance metrics, you can maintain objectivity and let data, not emotion, guide decisions. For instance, recording key metrics such as win/loss/DC ratio, drawdown, size to equity ratios helps you see the reality of your approach. If a strategy shows success based on predefined metrics, then it can reinforce the right habits and decisions. This data-driven approach serves as a constant reminder that the trader’s performance isn’t a matter of market control but of disciplined adherence to a well-defined strategy.
Understanding and overcoming the illusion of control bias is critical for every trader. By recognizing that markets cannot be controlled, focusing on influence over outcomes, maintaining discipline, and relying on objective data, you can build resilience against this pervasive bias. By making consistent efforts to remain objective, you position yourself to make more rational decisions, improving your performance over time.
How Exchange Rates Affect International BusinessesHow Exchange Rates Affect International Businesses
Exchange rates directly affect the cost of goods and services in international trade and can have a substantial impact on a company’s revenue and profit margins. Foreign exchange risk refers to the potential financial impact caused by fluctuations in the value of currencies. Companies with cross-border operations are particularly sensitive to it.
This FXOpen article looks at how changes in exchange rates influence different companies in general, why they can do it, and how they affect the operations of international business.
Types of Exchange Rate Influence
In essence, foreign currency exposure is driven by the uncertainty associated with the future exchange rates of two currencies and has a material impact on a company’s financial position. To gain a deeper understanding of the impact of this risk on businesses, it’s crucial to break it down into its primary types.
Transaction Influence
Transaction influence is a risk in international business that refers to the potential gains or losses arising from the conversion of one currency into another for immediate transactions. It arises from fluctuations in exchange rates between the time a transaction is initiated and the time it is completed.
Imagine a British company invoices a European customer in euros but settles with the customer three months later. A shift in the EUR/GBP exchange rate during this period may noticeably change the final amount of funds received.
Translation Influence
Another aspect to think about is the relationship between currency risk and businesses that have subsidiaries in other countries. Translation influence, also known as accounting risk, primarily affects multinational corporations with affiliates operating in different currencies.
It arises when these companies consolidate their financial statements by translating foreign currency assets and liabilities into the reporting currency. Fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to changes in reported earnings, which creates challenges for financial analysis and decision-making.
Economic Influence
Considering a more global risk, it’s vital to pay attention to the economy as a whole. The economic impact is long-term and can change a company’s overall competitiveness and value. It affects a company’s international investments and may influence its strategic decisions.
For instance, the economic landscape can affect the relative prices of a company’s products or services. Thus, manufacturing in one country and selling in another may become unprofitable, and the company will have to find new markets.
Factors Contributing to Exchange Rate Changes
To better understand the foreign exchange risk in international business, let’s start with an examination of the factors that contribute to it. Three main areas to keep in mind are market movements, economic conditions, and political stability.
Exchange Rate Volatility
Exchange rate volatility is a foreign exchange market risk. You can track currency changes by looking at the movement of currency pair quotes on international exchanges and special platforms like TickTrader. Market players, namely large companies, banks, institutional investors, and traders, influence the quotes by their actions. When exchange rates are highly volatile, companies face greater uncertainty about the future. This may hinder forecasting and managing cash flows.
Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and economic growth are something that multinational companies need to keep an eye on. Changes in these factors lead to shifts in the value of currencies, directly affecting international businesses engaged in trade and investment. To keep abreast of global and local economic news, you can gather information from a variety of reputable sources and regularly check the economic calendar.
Political Instability
Political instability in a country can disrupt the stability of its currency. Sudden changes in government, politics, or geopolitical events can lead to fluctuations in the value of currencies, creating a corporate risk for companies operating in these regions. To keep up with developments, traders may read the news regularly and use the Political Stability Index. It is one of the indices developed by the World Bank, and it measures perceptions of the likelihood of the destabilisation of the incumbent government.
Impact of Exchange Rate on International Businesses
Now that we’ve explored the nature and contributing factors of the exchange rate effect, let’s examine how it can affect international businesses across various dimensions.
Financial Implications
- Revenue and profit fluctuations. Foreign exchange rates can affect a company’s revenue and profits. Fluctuations lead to unpredictable shifts in the value of international sales and could enhance or worsen a company’s financial performance.
- Cash flow challenges. Cash flow management becomes more complex. Currency fluctuations can impede predicting the timing and amount of incoming and outgoing payments. This often results in cash deficits or surpluses, making it harder to meet financial obligations.
Operational Disruptions
- Pricing and cost issues. Another business risk of a company is that currency fluctuations may disrupt pricing strategies. It may be necessary to adjust prices frequently, which will negatively impact competitiveness and customer relations. In addition, changes in the cost of imported materials may increase the cost of production.
- Supply chain disruptions. International companies typically rely on complex global supply chains. Disruptions will affect the cost of imports and make it difficult to manage contracts with international suppliers, potentially leading to delays.
Strategic Considerations
- Expansion decisions. Exchange rates can influence a company’s decisions to enter a new market and expand operations. Perceived influences related to certain currencies or regions can deter or encourage expansion plans.
- Mergers and acquisitions. Companies should assess how currency fluctuations change the value of target companies. This is important since the results of the assessment will show the potential success and profitability of a merger or an acquisition.
Final Thoughts
Understanding the types of exchange rate effects, the factors contributing to them, and the potential impact on financial and operational performance is critical to effective management. Adopting sound strategies to mitigate the effects of currency fluctuations will enable companies to thrive in the global market.
If you are interested in participating in global markets, you can open an FXOpen account and start trading. We offer forex pair and stock, index, ETF, crypto*, and commodity CFDs, so you can easily diversify your portfolio and minimise the business risk of your company related to exchange rates.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.