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Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback. There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback. Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend. While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse. The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low. If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high. If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low. Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse. It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend. Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair. The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses. Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important: 1. Trend confirmation If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend. While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend. Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil. 2. Entry points Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities. Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market. Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD. 3. Risk management By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit. Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback. Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader. Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities. Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
32
The CORRECT way to trade MAsMost people have traded with moving averages. They end up being frustrated and losing money. That’s because they’re not using them correctly. I’m going to show you how to use moving averages the right way. Where it works and where it doesn’t To get good trades using moving averages, there’s just 1 thing to do. The thing you need to do is move to a higher timeframe. Stick to 1H, 4H and Daily charts. Sounds simple, right? It is simple but extremely effective. When this strategy is used on higher timeframes, it works amazingly. But on lower timeframes, you end up getting a lot of false signals. Also, use this strategy for potential reversals and trend continuation entries. Avoid using them in a sideways market. (I’ll talk about how to avoid a sideways market) Remember, the higher the time frame is, the better and more reliable the signal is. MA pairings These are the best MA pairings you can use: - 13 EMA & 21 SMA - 5 & 20 SMA - 10 & 50 SMA The big secret Now, after using the moving averages to trade, you will still get fake outs. You will still get caught in sideways markets. But there is a way to make the signals extremely reliable and filter out false signals. You can use the Death cross and the Golden cross. A Death cross is used for a sell. It happens when the longer period MA is ALREADY sloping downward and the shorter period MA crosses below it. Example: A Golden cross is used for a buy. It happens when the longer period MA is ALREADY sloping upward and the shorter period MA crosses above it. Example: These are used to avoid sideways markets. Summary This strategy is supposed to be used on high timeframes like the 4H and Daily chart. Rules for a buy: - The shorter period MA crosses above the longer period MA - The longer period MA should be either flat or already be sloping up (this is important) - Never take a buy if the longer period MA is sloping downward Rules for a sell: - The shorter period MA crosses below the longer period MA - The longer period MA should be either flat or already be sloping down (this is important) - Never take a sell if the longer period MA is sloping upward Please do not use this on lower timeframes like 1M, 5M, 15M and 1H. I hope you got value from this!
Education
by SamaaraDas
37
Slippery Slope: What is Slippage? With the unfortunate demise of the prop firm My Forex Funds, the issue of slippage has recently become a hot topic. This educational post takes a look at the slippery issue of slippage, beginning with the basics all the way to addressing popular theories and speculations about slippage. Something to remember is that every trader, regardless of expertise, will encounter slippage during their trading activity. What exactly is slippage? Slippage is the term used in the forex market to describe the difference between the requested price at which you expect to fill your order and the actual price that you end up paying. Slippage most often occurs during periods of high market volatility, when market conditions are very thin due to low volumes traded or when the market gaps; all of these scenarios then lead to market conditions being such that orders cannot be executed at the price quoted. Therefore, when this happens, your order will be filled at the next available price, which may be either higher or lower than you had anticipated. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimise negative slippage while potentially maximising positive slippage. Market Gap High Market Volatility Slippage is part of trading and cannot be avoided. This is due to forex market volatility and execution speeds. When a market experiences high volatility, it generally means there’s low liquidity. The reason for this is that during this time, market prices fluctuate very quickly. Where this affects forex traders is when there’s not enough FX liquidity to fill an order at the requested price. When this happens, the liquidity provider will complete the trade at the next best available price. Another cause of slippage is execution speed. This is how fast your Electronic Communication Network (ECN) can complete a trade at your requested price. With market prices changing in fractions of a second, having faster execution times can make a difference, especially on large trades. What is the difference between positive slippage, no slippage, and negative slippage? When slippage occurs, it is usually negative, meaning you paid more for the asset than you wanted to, though at some times it can also be positive. When slippage is positive, it means you paid less for the trade than you expected and therefore got a better price. To get a better understanding of this, let's see the image below. How do you calculate slippage? Let's assume that the price of the EUR/USD is 1.05000. After doing your research and analysing the market, you speculate that it’s on an upward trend and long a one-standard lot trade at the current price of EUR/USD 1.05100, expecting to execute at the same price of 1.05100. The market follows the trend; however, it goes past your execution price and up to 1.05105 very quickly—quicker than a second. Because your expected price of 1.05100 is not available in the market, you’re offered the next best available price. For the sake of the example, let's assume that the best next price is 1.05105. In this case, you would experience negative slippage (positive for the broker), as you got in at a worse price than you wanted: 1.05100 – 1.05105 = -0.00005, or -0.5 pips. On the other hand, let’s say your trade was executed at 1.05095. You would then experience positive slippage (negative for the broker), as you got in at a cheaper price than you wanted: 1.05100 – 1.05095 = +0.00005, or +0.5 pips. Negative Slippage Example Is slippage a technical glitch in a broker’s software, or is it built and designed to bring in extra revenue? There are popular beliefs that slippage is a software glitch or that it is made just to give brokers and liquidity providers extra revenue. This is not true, as slippage is something that is unavoidable. There are times when the markets are extremely volatile and price movements are too quick due to a lack of liquidity. Slippage does bring in extra revenue for brokers and liquidity providers, but you need to remember that slippage goes both ways; while brokers and liquidity providers will generate profits from negative slippage, they will also generate losses from positive slippage. Though there are times when brokers (very rare) use price manipulation on their clients to generate additional revenue (more on this later).  How can a trader avoid or minimise slippage? While slippage is impossible to fully avoid, there are a few things you can do to minimise the impact of slippage and protect yourself as much as possible in the markets, including using stop-loss orders to limit their exposure and placing orders during less volatile times. Stop-loss orders are instructions to your broker to immediately exit a trade if it reaches a certain price. By using stop-loss orders, you can limit your losses if the market moves against you. High liquid markets such as Forex enable you to take advantage of market swings to enter and exit trades rapidly, limiting your exposure to the market but also increasing the risk that your stop-loss order may not be executed at the price you expect if the market moves quickly against you. Additionally, there are some brokers that offer traders guaranteed stop-loss orders called 'Guaranteed Stop Orders' (GSOs), meaning that the stop-loss price is guaranteed, which makes the trader unaffected by slippage when getting stopped out. Another way to reduce the impact of slippage is to trade during less volatile times. The forex market is open 24 hours a day, but not all hours are equal. There are times when there are hardly any trading volumes being generated, and you want to avoid trading during this time at all costs as trading spreads will be wider and you will most likely get slipped due to the lack of liquidity in the markets. The best times to trade are usually when the market is most active, which is typically during specific trading sessions such as the Eurpoean or US trading sessions. To summarise, to minimise slippage, you should: What is slippage tolerance, and how should you factor that into account with regard to your stop-loss and risk-to-reward calculations? Some brokers will enable a feature called the 'Market Order Deviation Range' where the trader can adjust the slippage's maximum deviation. This is done so a trader can estimate his or her tolerance to slippage. For example, if you set the maximum deviation to 3 pips, the order will be filled as long as the slippage equals 3 or below. If the price slips beyond the set maximum, the order won't be filled. This is an effective way of managing your risk-to-reward calculations because if you have a strict risk-to-reward set-up and do not have much leeway to give in terms of slippage, you can adjust the slippage tolerance setting so that if the trade comes with more slippage than your trade can afford, it will not enter you in the trade. How can a trader tell if his or her broker is being predatory with regard to slippage? Although rare and illegal now that regulators are prevalent in the industry, in some cases, brokers may manipulate prices to cause slippage. This usually happens during times of high volatility when there are a lot of market orders. By creating a large amount of slippage, brokers can increase their profits. Forex brokers that are not regulated by the major governing bodies are more likely to do this. For a broker to gain the regulation of a major governing body, they must adhere to very strict guidelines set out by the regulating authority. Firstly, if you suspect that your broker is manipulating prices, you should immediately look for another broker. If you have evidence of your broker manipulating prices, you should report that broker to the financial authorities. A good way to gauge if a broker is potentially manipulating prices is by requesting a trade journal from them. A good and reputable broker usually offers trade journals to their clients. Trade journals show execution times of trades and will have a comment on the journal if the trade was slipped. On a standard trade journal, slippage comments should not appear there often (unless you are trading at times when the market is volatile, thin, or trading outside liquid hours). A broker that manipulates prices to their clients is usually hesitant to offer trade journals to their clients because it shows this on the trade journals. So if your broker is not willing to share the trade journals with you, you might want to think twice about continuing to trade with them. To add to that, you can also check if your broker is either a market maker or directly connected to the interbank market, as they will handle slippage differently. To recap, slippage is a part of forex, and no trader is immune to getting it. It occurs most often during periods of high market volatility. Though slippage is almost impossible to avoid and can impact your profit and losses, there are a few things you can do to minimise slippage and its impact. This includes the use of limit and stop-loss orders, placing orders outside of volatile market times, avoiding major economic and news events, and only using brokers that are regulated by the major governing bodies. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
14
Strategy Smarts Part 1: Opening Range BreakoutWelcome to our four-part Strategy Smarts series designed to give you some practical trading templates which build on the concepts outlined in our Day Traders Toolbox and Power Patterns series. We’re kicking this series off with the Opening Range Breakout strategy because it is fundamental to the process of intra-day price discovery. Strategy Overview: At first glance, the Opening Range Breakout may appear as a straightforward range breakout trading setup. However, when executed with precision, it can become a potent instrument for harnessing the inherent dynamics of intra-day price action. The initial minutes of a trading session are marked by frenzied activity, as overnight and pre-opening news gets rapidly factored into prices, and orders are executed. During this phase of early price discovery, a trading range often takes form, aptly termed the opening range. The Opening Range Breakout strategy comes into play when the market establishes a well-defined range within the first hour of trading. Here’s a simple 3-step process which can be used as a framework for trading the Opening Range Breakout: Step 1: Define the Opening Range The initial and critical step in this strategy is defining the opening range. The method for determining the opening range may vary for different assets, such as stocks and indices or the forex market. For Stocks & Indices: Stocks and cash indices with set opening and closing times make defining the opening range relatively straightforward. We are looking for a range to develop within the first hour of trading – the more obvious the range the better. NOTE: It's important to acknowledge that a range may not always form within the first hour of trading. In such cases, the Opening Range Breakout strategy would not usually be applied by traders using this strategy. Example: AAPL 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results For Forex: Forex is the market that never sleeps, this means the New York close rolls straight into the Asian open – making defining the opening range much more subjective. For most major forex pairs, volume will be lower during the Asian session, increase in early European trading, before away during late morning and increasing again during U.S. trading hours. There are many interpretations and definitions of the opening range breakout strategy for forex pairs, but perhaps the cleanest method is using the lower volume Asian session as a window in which a range can form. Example: EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Step 2: Check Range Location If you've read our Day Traders Toolbox Part 1 on Previous Day High and Low (PDH/PDL), you understand the significance of these levels in shaping day trading strategies. The location of the opening range concerning PDH/PDL plays a pivotal role in shaping the expectations and management of the Opening Range Breakout strategy. Assuming PDH represents resistance and PDL signifies support, the relative distance between the opening range and PDH/PDL dictates whether long or short positions are more appealing. Should an opening range form above the PDH, this strategy suggests longs will be more attractive as the market is consolidating in a position of strength. The opposite applies to when an opening range forms below the prior days low – the market is consolidating in a position of weakness and therefore shorts might look more attractive. Example Part 1: SPX 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Example Part 2: SPX 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Step 3: Trade the Breakout Once a clear range has emerged within your defined opening window, and you've assessed the range's location relative to PDH/PDL, it's a matter of waiting for and executing a breakout when it occurs. A breakout can occur either to the upside or the downside. Consider placing price alerts on both sides of the range to ensure you capture the breakout. Be aware that breakouts from opening ranges may not always be clean. Noise and false breakouts can occur. Therefore, one of the best entry techniques for trading the opening range breakout is the 'Break & Retest' method, as outlined in our Power Patterns series. This approach waits for the breakout to occur and enters during the first pullback. Stop Placement: You may want to consider positioning your stop within the opening range to account for potential market noise. Advanced traders may consider employing the Average True Range (ATR) for more precise stop placement, as discussed in our Day Traders Toolbox: Part 3 on ATR. Profit Target: A sound starting point for determining profit targets in the Opening Range Breakout strategy is using the PDH/PDL and daily ATR. If the breakout happens within the prior day's range, set PDH/PDL as initial targets. If the breakout extends beyond the prior day's range, consider using 1 x Daily ATR as your initial target. Worked Example 1: Tesla Long Opening Range Breakout Tesla establishes an opening range during the first hour of trading above the PDH, indicating strength. The range is broken to the upside, and the market retests the upper boundary, offering an entry opportunity. A stop is placed within the opening range, and an initial target of 1 x ATR is reached as the price climbs. TSLA 5min Candle Chart: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Worked Example 2: Tesla Short Opening Range Breakout Tesla forms an opening range just above the PDL. A break and retest of the opening range triggers the entry. A stop is positioned above PDL and within the opening range to accommodate market noise. The initial target of 1 x ATR is achieved as the price descends. TSLA 5min Candle Chart: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
Education
by Capitalcom
7
Arbitrage, Co-Integration & Pairs If you are interested in quantitative trading (“quant” trading) or even if you’re only interested in investing, chances are you may have heard of arbitrage, co-integration and pairs trading. But chances are equally likely you have no idea what these truly mean and how to assess/measure and exploit these different concepts in your trading life and investment life. And it makes sense, these are really complex concepts and generally utilized by quantitative traders in institutional trading. But, why let them have all the fun. So I’m going to try to simplify these concepts and give you a working idea of: a) What these things mean; b) Why they are imported for traders and investors; and c) How to start applying these concepts to your trading and/or investment portfolio. First, let’s get started with the pesky definition details. Arbitrage: Isn’t that a big bird?! In finance, arbitrage generally refers to any short to mid term trading strategies that revolve around mean reversion models and the exploitation of pricing inefficiencies. Despite the fact that the “ Efficient market Hypothesis ” postulates that markets are efficient and thus unpredictable, I am going to show you that they are in fact very inefficient and all it takes is a little math to reveal these inefficiencies. And Co-Integration? Co-integration is kind of like co-habitation, perhaps more copulation. If two tickers were going to have a child together, it would be a co-integration. Essentially, co-integration refers to what a ticker would look like while integrated into another ticker. The official explanation of cointegration is essentially when two or more nonstationary time series move together in such a way that their linear combination results in a stationary time series. Now this is the involves modelling one ticker after another, so that you can essentially predict one ticker’s price or behaviour, from another. It may help to show you some examples of co-integration via charts. So let’s take a look at some examples below, using the SPTS indicator to perform linear regression assessments: In the chart above, I have placed a co-integration model of GOOG and MSFT through linear regression. Essentially, we use GOOG’s close price to calculate the respective fair value of MSFT. From this, we can see when MSFT is over-valued from GOOG and vice versa, and we can see when the two are fully integrated (a regression to the mean). Now cointegration isn’t a natural order. Not everything can co-integrate. Sometimes, there just isn’t a significant relationship. For this, we must apply some statistical tests. There are many that can be used, such as the Engle Granger Test, but the most popular is the Dickey Fuller test or Augmented Dickey Fuller test. We will talk more about this later. Pairs Trading Pairs trading refers to trading both arbitrage and co-integration. Remember our GOOG/MSFT example above? Well, pairs trading involves assessing, modelling and trading this co-integrated relationship. Let me explain through charts: In the chart above we can see both MSFT and GOOG are in an uptrend. However, MSFT is lagging below GOOG and GOOG is holding slightly above MSFT. Now, because they are both in an uptrend, you don’t want to short, but if you wanted to maximize your profits, you are going to long the stock that is under-performing its benchmark or “cointegrated” pair, i.e. GOOG. We can see this translated into about a 6.18% gain on MSFT vs only a 4.75% gain had you longed GOOG. Now, traditional pairs trading generally involves finding two stocks that are highly correlated but have extremely diverged, shorting the one that is overvalued and longing the one that is undervalued. But I can tell you, that is almost IMPOSSIBLE to find in the real world! So I settle for this as a pseudo-pairs trading fill in! Here is an intra-day example between SPY and QQQ from Tuesday October 31st: Do you notice anything in this chart? During the morning sell down, SPY lagged QQQ and QQQ sold more starkly. SPY held higher above QQQ, which we can see from our co-integration model. So what would have made more sense, to long SPY or QQQ for the bounce? If you said QQQ, you are correct: From its lowest to highest point, SPY bounced 0.57%. From its lowest to highest point, QQQ bounced 0.85%. And we were able to see that QQQ had more upside room than SPY by looking at the co-integration model overlaid on the chart. Now do you remember when I talked about arbitrage and how I said the market isn’t so efficient when you pull in these pesky math equations? This is why. There is arbitrage everywhere, everyday, on every stock. These small inconsistencies in pricing that can be exploited for profit. Now, as retail traders, we likely don’t have the computing and modelling power/setup necessary to scan millions of tickers, creating multiple co-integration models to look for these pricing anomalies and capitalize on them, but we can absolutely have our own co-integration model built on stocks that we trade frequently, or that we like to invest in. But before we get into the how, let’s look at some different examples of co-integration and mean reversion. First, let’s look at an example of a “perfect integration” i.e. the same stock with SPY and SPX: You can see that the blue lines align perfectly with the candles. But watch what happens when we overlay SPY and ES1! (the futures version): Do you notice something.. strange ? Despite ES1! And SPY being pretty identical, we can notice a few “drifts” or inconsistencies in the pricing. This is likely attributable to the extended trading time of ES1! Vs SPY which is limited in its trading times, but it does highlight how these inconsistencies can “pop up” on tickers/futures that are trading almost identical underlying assets (in this case, the S&P 500). What about investments? How is this useful for investments? This is actually a really great question and.. well friends… I’m going to show you how your investments can thrive with a little bit of quantitative love! Let’s use a very straight forward example, SPY and QQQ. They are pretty similar, tend to follow each other. Over the past 75 days, SPY and QQQ have a Pearson Correlation of 0.94. That is a pretty substantial relationship! If we look at what SPY looks like overlaid with QQQ, here we are: In the chart above, you can see there are areas where SPY outperforms QQQ and QQQ outperforms SPY. If we were to export SPY and QQQ trading data since July 2020 into Excel and create a investment model based on the modelled relationship between SPY and QQQ, it would look something like this: Column B has our SPY close Price, C our QQQ close price, E through G are how we calculate the Dickey Fuller statistic, H and I are our SPY and QQQ Returns respectively, and J is our investment of $100. Now, if we create a SPY trading algorithm off this model and tell it to long and hold SPY as long as it is undervalued in comparison to QQQ, sell when its over-valued and re-buy when its undervalued, assuming an initial investment of 100$, between July 22nd, 2020 and October 31st, 2023, you would have made exactly $36.40 or 36%. Had you just held SPY for that time and not sold when SPY became over-valued against QQQ, you would have made $27.95, or around 28%. The difference seems marginal maybe, but it is quite a stark percent difference. And if you change that 100 to, say, 10,000, the difference starts to add up. So … How can do you do it? So now for the technical stuff. I am going to try to keep this as easy and straight forward as possible. In a nutshell, the steps involved in developing a co-integration model include the following: a) Finding a rational basis for the integration: It is insufficient to think that one stock should relate to the other. You need a rationale basis as to why these stocks are similar, which can later be confirmed by some tests. b) Reference a correlation table or matrix to compare the stocks of interest and identify the highest correlated stock pairs. c) Once you have identified the highest correlated stock pairs, you can use an indicator such as SPTS to create a regression model, or you can use Excel to create a regression model (for simplicity, I am going to show you how to do it on the SPTS indicator). d) Create your co-integration model in Excel by exporting your two stocks of interest and plotting in your linear regression formula. e) Perform the Dickey Fuller test to ensure stationarity. f) You’re done! Now, let’s walk through the steps, using NVDA and SMH as our two basis. Determine rationality: NVDA is a subsector of chips, which is tracked by SMH. Check Correlation: We can see on this correlation matrix, NVDA has a 0.82 correlation to SMH. It is the strongest, even stronger than QQQ which has a 0.74 correlation. In general, you want a correlation >= 0.8. So SMH has passed the first and second step! Create a Regression Model For simplicity, let’s use SPTS. Launching SPTS, it is going to ask us to set a start and end time. I am going to start from the beginning of 2018 till current (approx. 5 years). Then, in the settings, I am going to select “Linear Regression” SPTS is going to output a linear regression model (green arrow): We are going to take a look at the Significance or P value, which is 0.9, even better than our correlation matrix result! And our R squared which is 0.8. This is an excellent R2 reading! We generally will accept R2 of 0.5 or greater, so 0.8 is perfect! We can also see our Error is 138.59, which means the variance present between NVDA and SMH is around $138.59 in both directions. The meat of our model is the equation y = 2.7994x + -114.15. We need this formula for the next step. Export the data into Excel We are going to click the dropdown menu in the top right hand corner by our chart title and click “ Export chart data ”: We are going to do this for both our tickers. Once we have the data, we are going to just leave the Time and the Close price for NVDA and copy over the close price for SMH so that our Excel file looks like this: Now, we are going to create a column in D called “Co-Integration”. In this column, we are going to use our model equation that was generated by SPTS like so: Remember, we are converting SMH to NVDA, so we take the SMH close price and substitute for X in the equation. Once that is done, we can drag and drop the data to calculate the expected close for NVDA: If we want to use Excel to calculate the equation, we can select an empty cell and use the formula =SLOPE(known ys (NVDA), Known_xs (SMH)): Then, in another column, we use =INTERCEPT(known_ys (NVDA), known_xs (SMH)): Perform Dickey Fuller Test So now we have our data, we have to ensure there is stationarity. Stationarity refers to the principle that the statistical processes of a stock will remain the same. Stationarity is required for any time series analysis, without stationarity, time series would not work in the way we need it to for this. Now don’t get confused by the term. Stationarity doesn’t mean that the stock price can’t change, just that its statistical attributes will remain the same. For example, say NVDA and SMH both gain 4% in one day, then following day they lose 2%. Now, say in two months, both gain 4.2% and lose 2.2% the next day. This is a simplistic example of stationarity. The statistical processes that are driving these two tickers remain constant, despite the price increase or decrease. So to perform a stationarity analysis, we need to first do what is called “Differencing”. All this means, is we need to subtract NVDA from our Co-integration formula like so: Then we drag down. (Notice we assigned this column X. This is for simplicity). One thing you will notice is the value of X is negative. This implies that NVDA is actually OVERVALUED in comparison to SMH. We are going to be seeing a lot of negatives ;). Now that we have created our X column, we can go ahead and calculate what is called delta x or x change. This is the difference between the second and first x value, calculated as such: We simply subtracted the proceeding value from the previous value. Once we put in the formula once we can just drag and drop it: Now the last thing we need to do is created a lagged value of X. This is because the Dickey Fuller test requires lagged values to assess stationarity. So we simply carry down the previous X like so: Then… what do you think?..... we drag and drop :p. So now we are ready to calculate the Dickey Fuller result. And this is actually really easy! All we do is use the formula =LINEST(known_ys, known_xs). Our known Y’s are going to be the delta x and our known x’s are going to be the lagged x. But before we use this function, we are going to highlight 2 rows like so: The top called coefficient and the bottom error. This will give us the regression coefficient (the same thing we multiplied our SMH value by), as well as the standard error. Once we have our two boxes highlighted, we will put in our command like so: NOW BEFORE YOU PRESS ENTER! You need to force the LINEST function to only print the two values we want, so to do this, after we put in our known Ys and Known Xs, we are going to use the comma “,” and put 0 then comma “,” and put “1”. This is going to tell Excel we want a negative coefficient (for the DF test) and to print our standard Error: Then, we are going to press ctrl + shift + enter. Or command + shift + enter on a mac. This is going to force Excel to only print the two variables of interesting: And there are our results! Now, to calculate the DF test, all we do is divide the coefficient by the error like so: And here is the result: So what does it mean? Well, there are 3 critical values on Dickey Fuller T Critical at 10% confidence = -1.75 T Critical at 5% = - 1.616 T Critical at 1% = -2.567 To be significant, the t-statistic needs to be below a critical value. As a vague rule of thumb, in general, the more negative a value is, the more confident we are to reject the null hypothesis, that the data is NOT stationary. Here, we fail to have a very negative value and we fail to come in lower than any of the critical values. As such, we have to accept the null hypothesis and the fact that this data is non-stationary. If we take, by comparison, the t-statistic of SPY and QQQ since 2020, it is a value of -2.048 within a normal distribution. Thus, we can say that the data is stationary up until a confidence level of 5%. However it is not significant within a 1% confidence level. A side note on distribution: While the distribution type does not technically affect the DF results, we should pay attention to whether we are operating with a normal distribution or an abnormal distribution. So we need to check the distribution, which we can do with SPTS: So should we accept NVDA and SMH as stationary? No. Unfortunately, it is not a stationary dataset and we cannot use SMH to determine the fair market value of NVDA. I wanted to use this example to show you that stationarity is not a rule and it can be a challenge ascertain it in your models. But if you are big into the indices, generally you will find stationarity if you are looking between 3 to 4 years back max. To recap, stationarity depends on a) The distribution type (a normal distribution should be ABOVE the critical values and a non-normal distribution should be below the critical values). b) In both cases, the more negative a value is, the stronger we can reject the null hypothesis. For example, if we returned a value of -4 on a normal distribution, this would indicate strong evidence of stationarity and would create an extremely reliable model. c) If the data distribution is non-normal, we need the value to fall below the critical values. So, for -1.75, we would need the value to be less that -1.75 for 10% confidence, less than -1.61 for 5%, etc. That said, I went ahead and applied the algo despite nonstationary data, to see how it would have faired using SMH as its anchor point. The initial investment was $200 at the start of 2018 and it would only buy NVDA when the value of NVDA fell below the FMV based on SMH. The result? Our $200 would be $734.85 as of today, assuming we bought when NVDA was below FMV and sold when it crossover the FMV according to SMH, for a total return of around 267%. What about if we bought NVDA and just held it from 2018 till now? Our investment would be up to $1636.52 for a total of around 718%. This is why stationarity matters , because it will affect how our investment does! You see it worked well on SPY and QQQ because there was stationarity to ensure consistency, but NVDA does not have it, too erratic. So what about if you have stationarity? If you have stationarity, then good! The principle is, you want to long the stock when your X value is positive (indicating it is undervalued by comparison to your co-integrated pair) and get out and/or short the opposite stock when your x value is negative. As an investment strategy, I generally recommend not shorting, but just getting out when the x value turns negative (i.e. is over-valued), or simply setting a stop-loss to maintain the bulk of your gains and letting it do what it do. You can also apply this on the shorter timeframes, like the 1 hour or 2 hour or 4 hour, like the examples I showed above. Concluding remarks So that concludes my very lengthy post. I really hope you learned something from this, took something away. These are really complex topics and there are not a lot of good resources out there on how to do them properly. Even just finding resources on the Dickey Fuller test, which is predominately only used in economics, was difficult. So I wanted to provide some information on these more complex strategies and principles that I think most traders and investors should have some idea about. Hope you enjoyed and safe trades to all! Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Steversteves
20
How to Choose Stocks for TradingWhat stocks do day traders trade? What stock types are more appropriate for swing traders? Selecting suitable stocks for trading requires an amalgamation of keen market understanding and thorough research. This process, while complex, is fundamental for traders aiming to navigate the ever-evolving financial markets with precision. Platforms like FXOpen provide traders with the tools and resources necessary to facilitate this selection, with instruments like TickTrader aiding in a more refined analysis. This article offers a structured approach to stock selection, encompassing various analytical techniques and considerations. Understanding Your Trading Goals Every trader has unique objectives shaping their strategies. While a young trader might aim for aggressive growth, those nearing retirement might focus on capital safety. Consequently: Growth-oriented traders are drawn to emerging companies with promising revenue growth, even if earnings vary, as they provide a high level of volatility. Those emphasising capital preservation opt for long-standing firms known for steady profits. Defining Your Trading Approach Your trading approach will determine the stocks you can trade: Short-Term: This is where understanding how to research stocks for day trading becomes essential. This period, which can last anywhere from a few moments to a few days, is ideal for traders who are looking for rapid market movements. Emerging equities and penny stocks may be an ideal option. Medium-Term: Traders who choose medium-term trading lasting anywhere from weeks to months pay attention to securities whose value highly depends on sector trends or company-specific developments that could affect their value in the near future. Long-Term: This investment timeframe extends over years. Although it’s not common for traders to keep trades open for such long periods, they may choose stocks with promising growth potential supported by solid company fundamentals. Are you scouting for the best day trading stocks today, or are you more intrigued by swing trading? With platforms like FXOpen, traders can optimally navigate the markets on chosen timeframes. Risk Tolerance Assessment If you are looking for the best stocks for trading, it's crucial to assess the level of risk you're comfortable with in relation to your entire trading capital. Risk tolerance can be categorised into different profiles, such as conservative, moderate, or aggressive: Conservative approach: priority for capital preservation and lower-risk investments. Moderate approach: a trader may take some risk but still prefer a balanced approach. Aggressive approach: higher levels of risk for potentially higher returns. Understand Stock Types Stocks can be categorised into various types based on their risk profiles, such as: Blue-chips: Generally considered less risky and associated with established financially stable companies. Growth: Offers the potential for higher returns but comes with higher volatility and risk. Value: Tend to be less volatile and may appeal to more conservative traders. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis provides the map for a stock trading journey, using financial statements and key ratios to decode a company's performance and potential. Evaluating Financial Statements Income Statement: This vital document illuminates the revenue, expenses, and profits, acting as a window into a company's profitability over a specific period. By examining it, traders discern how the company generates profits and manages its operating expenses. Balance Sheet: Acting as a financial snapshot, the balance sheet reveals a company's assets and liabilities at a particular point in time. It provides insights into the company's net worth and financial resilience. Cash Flow Statement: A crucial tool for traders, it traces the journey of cash as it enters and exits the company. More than just profitability, this statement underscores the company's liquidity, showing how well it manages its cash resources. Analysing Key Financial Ratios: Ratios like P/E, Debt-to-Equity, and ROE offer profound insights into a company's valuation, leverage, and profitability, respectively. Assessing the Company's Industry and Market Position: Understanding the industry trends and the company's standing within its sector provides context. Does the company lead its peers, or does it follow? Identifying Potential Catalysts: A product launch, merger, or even macroeconomic factors can serve as catalysts, inducing stock price movements. Technical Analysis Technical analysis deciphers stock price movements through historical trends and patterns, enabling traders to base decisions on past data over speculation. Reading Stock Charts By analysing chart patterns and technical indicators, you can identify the best stocks with precise entry and exit points, increasing the likelihood of effective trades. For example, if you're looking to learn how to find stocks to day trade, understanding and utilising candlestick patterns can be an incredibly useful tool. Using Technical Indicators Technical indicators allow traders to determine the assets with the most promising price movements. Whether you are a day trader or keep trades open for weeks, technical analysis tools will help build a strong trading strategy. Volume Analysis Every stock movement is driven by the forces of supply and demand. Volume analysis helps to understand this by shedding light on a stock's trading activity. A surge in volume could indicate a growing interest in a stock, while dwindling volumes could suggest fading enthusiasm. This metric is essential, especially when identifying the best stocks to day trade. Market Sentiment Analysis Market sentiment analysis offers a deep dive into traders' collective perceptions, providing insight into their outlook on particular stocks or the market as a whole. Such insights often serve as the vital link between analytical data and the real-world trading environment. Understanding Market Sentiment: Recognising the market's overall sentiment can be invaluable. For instance, a predominantly bullish sentiment on a blue-chip stock after a strong earnings report might indicate a potential upward trend. Monitoring News and Events: External events, such as an unexpected CEO resignation or geopolitical tensions, can drastically impact stock prices. Staying updated can prepare traders for sudden market shifts. Social Media Sentiment Analysis: Platforms like Twitter can be goldmines of trader sentiment. A sudden spike in tweets about a tech company following a product launch, for example, might hint at market excitement. Sentiment Indicators and Tools: Several tools, such as those on platforms like TickTrader, offer sentiment metrics. Tracking market volume is a logical way to measure market sentiment. Large market volumes are a good indicator of how the market feels about a particular security. Screening for Trading Candidates Traders need a systematic approach to identify the most suitable stocks for their strategy in order to navigate the vast sea of options available. Effective screening can be the difference between capitalising on an opportunity and missing it entirely. Liquidity ensures traders can promptly enter or exit trades. Typically, blue-chip stocks have higher liquidity than small-cap stocks. Volatility represents price fluctuations. High volatility can provide more short-term trading chances, but it comes with risks. For instance, emerging industry stocks tend to be more volatile. Price Trends track stocks with steady trajectories. A stock frequently hitting its 52-week high may suggest a sustained bullish trend. Stock Screeners and Tools: With modern tech, traders use stock screeners to filter stocks that match their criteria, streamlining the selection process. Conclusion Choosing stocks requires a careful mix of insight, study, and instinct. As markets change, being informed and adaptable remains crucial. Platforms such as TickTrader support traders, providing essential tools for their trading journey. If you are keen to further harness these approaches, consider opening an FXOpen account. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by FXOpen
9
Reading multi timeframe Secrethello everyone, this is my first video tutorial on this website. I hope I explained everything properly if I didn't let me know so I can make improvements... I did have some people who contacted me how to trade, they liked my analysis so I made this video for them and also for people new to trading.. Or people who are already pro this will give a nice upgrade on there skills for this tutorial I used DXY which is the most important index in trading and I think it's a good start for new traders so they can use DXY to trade major currencies.. please let me know how the video was? thank you
TVC:DXYEducation
by baigxy
22
TradingView Masterclass: Paper TradingIn this Masterclass, you’ll learn how to use our official paper trading tool. Paper trading gives trades the capability to test their trading skills in a simulated environment without risking real money. For all the new traders out there, you’ll want to make paper trading your best friend. Why? Have all the fun you want, practice endlessly, and never lose a dime. Reminder: With Black Friday nearing (seriously… it’s coming soon), now is the time to master one of our most important tools. You’ll be ready to go the second you activate your upgraded account. To get started, follow the steps below: Step 1 - Click the ‘Trading Panel’ button located at the bottom of the chart. Step 2 - Once you click the ‘Trading Panel’ button, a list of brokers in your region will appear, but also, at the very top, a Paper Trading account powered by yours truly, TradingView. Step 3 - Click Paper Trading and you’ll now start the process of opening your free, simulated trading environment, entirely powered by us. You made it! Time to celebrate! 🕺💃 Alright, let’s go a little deeper and talk about the buttons you’ll want to understand now that you’ve got your Paper Trading account opened. While still having the Trading Panel open, click the button that says “Trade” and an order slip will appear. It’ll look like this: As you get started, here are some tips to keep in mind: Take Paper Trading seriously. Work Paper Trading as if it were a real account: Record your trades, the reasons, the results obtained and the lessons learned. Explore different approaches like intraday trading or swing trading. Maintain emotional discipline, your trading strategy and risk management. Practice, practice, practice - that’s what this is all about, getting better at trading through practice. It gets better, because there are multiple ways to trade and customize your paper trading experience. Open the chart settings menu or right click on the chart, and you can add specific trading features to the chart as needed. In-fact, we’ll explain all of the features available to you in the chart settings. 🟥🟦 Buy/Sell buttons : When these are turned on, you’ll see a Buy and Sell button at the top right of the chart. When it comes to buying and selling, there are three primary order types: Market (executed at the current market price), Limit (executed at a defined specific value), and Stop (executed when the price falls below a certain level). 👆 Instant Orders placement : This option allows you to open positions at the market price by simply clicking the buy and sell buttons. You can choose the quantity by clicking on the number below the spread. ⏰ Play Sound for executions : You can enable this option to receive an audible notification when a trade is executed, with eight different tones to choose from. 📲 Notifications : Receive notifications for All events or Rejection orders only. Tip : You can open the order panel by using the Shift + T shortcut or by right-clicking on a chart, then selectings Trade > Create a new order. 👁‍🗨 Positions : Uncheck this box if you don’t want to see your active trading positions. 🔺🔻 Profit & loss : This option allows you to view the profit and loss changes in your trades, which can displayed in both ticks and percentages. 🔃 Reverse button : When enabled, a button is added to your active trading positions that allows you to reverse your trade. 👁 Orders : See your current open unexecuted orders by checking this box. 🔺🔻👁 Brackets profit & loss : It functions similarly to the Profit & Loss option, but for pending orders. ⏪ Executions : It displays the past executed orders on the chart. Execution labels : Enable this option to view specific information about past execution orders, including trade direction, quantity, and executed price. Extended price line for positions & orders : It creates an extended horizontal line for your active trades. ⬅⬆➡ Orders & positions alignment : You can move the alignment of your orders to Left, Center and Right in your charts. 🖥 Orders, Executions and Positions on screenshots : Check this box if you want to download screenshots (shortcut: Ctrl + Alt + S) with active and pending orders. Thanks for reading and we hope this tutorial helps you get started! We look forward to reading your feedback. - TradingView Team
TVC:SPXEducation
by TradingView
29
Revisiting Automatic Access Management API for VendorsThis video explains how to automate access management for vendors who build and sell invite only scripts based on subscription or one time fee. I have made videos about this earlier as well. But, due to high demand, I have been asked to make this video again. 🎲 Tools Required Replit - Used for hosting the service that automates access management Postman - To test the services hosted 🎲 Prerequisites User should have premium tradingview account and be able to publish invite only scripts by following the house rules. User should disable 2FA on their account in order to allow programs to login remotely and manage access. 🎲 Steps All the steps are also mentioned in the githup repository: github.com 🎯 Run the access management service Fork the replit repository: replit.com Update Environment Variables tvusername and tvpassword Run the repl 🎯 Use postman to test the service methods Detailed explanation of the API calls are present in the github link provided above. The service is capable of doing following things. Check if the given tradingview username is valid or not Get the access details of given user to list of scripts identified by pub id. Delete the access to given user to list of scripts identified by pub id. Provide/Extend access to given user to list of scripts identified by pub id for specific duration. 🎲 Notes Please follow house rules while publishing and selling subscriptions to invite only scripts. Do not commercialize these API calls or do not turn it into product. The mechanism is built on backend calls that are not officially supported by tradingview. While tradingview is tolerant on individual use, any malicious activity may force them to shut this down for everyone.
Education
by Trendoscope
17
Trading strategyA trading strategy encompasses a set of guidelines for initiating a position. A trading system encompasses a set of rules for consistently profitable trading. This involves a clear comprehension of your strategy, specifying the assets you trade, the setups you utilize, the risk involved, preferred timeframes, and other pertinent details. Consistency: A meticulously crafted action plan serves as a tool to maintain a steady trading strategy while minimizing the sway of emotions on your decision-making. Such consistency often yields more predictable results and enhances overall performance over time. Confidence: Equipped with a playbook, you can trade with increased self-assurance, knowing that you are following a tried-and-tested strategy. This confidence alleviates stress and anxiety, enabling you to maintain focus and make sound decisions. Adaptability: In the face of shifting market conditions, having a playbook at your disposal empowers you to adjust and fine-tune your strategies as needed. This adaptability is a critical factor in staying ahead and sustaining success in the constantly evolving realm of trading. 4 distinct components that constitute a trading strategy: Context: Context encompasses the surroundings and circumstances related to a trading idea or event. It is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation and is vital for maximizing the potential of your trading strategy. Many traders erroneously believe that a trading strategy is simply about identifying patterns or triggers along with basic risk management. For instance, some may focus on trading Order Blocks. However, the key to making Order Blocks a profitable tool lies in applying the correct context. Patterns: The second component involves identifying the triggers or patterns that dictate when to enter a position. Context is applied to these triggers for in-depth analysis, aligning them with the risk-to-reward parameters defined in your trading system. Triggers can vary widely and should be chosen according to your individual trading style and strategy. Position Management: Inexperienced traders often find themselves overwhelmed when they enter a position, leading to irrational decisions. Defining a repeatable process for managing your trades is essential. This process should align with the goals set out in your trading strategy. For instance, if your strategy aims for a risk-to-reward ratio of 3R or higher, your approach will differ from someone targeting a minimum of 1.5R. To ensure consistency, it's crucial to avoid excessive discretion when managing positions, such as attempting to achieve a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio, placing short stops, or averaging down. Instead, aim for strict consistency, gradually honing your skills. Risk Management: The final facet of any trading system is risk management. Poor risk management is a leading cause of trader failures. It often results from excessive leverage and a lack of understanding. Your risk management plan doesn't need to be overly complex, but it must be clear and diligently adhered to. By following a robust risk management strategy, you can avoid the pitfalls that ensnare many inexperienced traders who destroy their accounts due to reckless trading practices. It may vary depending on your trading style, but for day trading I recommend the following: * 1% maximum risk per trade * 2% maximum per day * 6% maximum per week * 10% maximum per month 6 essential steps to build and refine your trading strategy: Determine Your Trading Style: Start by defining your trading style, whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor. This choice guides your selection of appropriate strategies, time frames, and risk management techniques. For instance, specify your preferred win rate (e.g., 50%+), risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2R minimum), and trading style (e.g., scalping, position trading, or swing trading). Research and Select Strategies: Explore various trading strategies and choose the ones that align with your trading style, risk tolerance, and financial objectives. You may want to consider strategies like Smart Money trading, which could be particularly beneficial. Define Entry and Exit Criteria: For each selected strategy, outline precise entry and exit criteria. Determine your stop loss and profit targets to ensure you execute trades accurately and limit potential losses. It's crucial to establish a well-defined trade management plan that guides step-by-step position management. For example, decide to move your position to break-even when a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is reached, open trades exclusively with a 1:2 ratio, or close 50% of your position at 1:1 and the remaining 50% at 1:3. Establish Risk Management Rules: Implement robust risk management rules to safeguard your capital. These rules might include setting a maximum percentage of your account balance to risk per trade or using Expert Advisors to automatically determine position sizing for risk control. Test Your Strategies: Prior to committing real capital, test your strategies using historical market data or a demo account. This testing phase allows you to refine your strategy and build confidence in your approach. If you cannot achieve positive results on a demo account, it's advisable to avoid risking real money until you've honed your skills. Analyze Your Trades: Maintain a comprehensive trade journal recording the strategy used, entry and exit points, and relevant market conditions for each trade. Regularly review your trade results to pinpoint areas for improvement and adapt your trading plan accordingly. Analyzing your trades is crucial for continuous growth as a trader. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
13
How to Trade Crude OilLearning how to trade crude oil requires a nuanced understanding of its fundamental aspects, instruments, and trading strategies. This comprehensive article offers insights into the critical elements that affect crude oil prices, the range of instruments available for trading, and specific strategies traders use in this market. The Basics of Crude Oil Crude oil, often referred to as "black gold," is a fossil fuel derived from the remains of ancient organic matter. It serves as a crucial raw material for various industries, including transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing. Two primary types of crude oil traded on global markets are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude. WTI is primarily sourced from the United States and is known for its high quality and low sulphur content. On the other hand, Brent Crude originates mainly from the North Sea and serves as an international pricing benchmark. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, plays a pivotal role in determining global oil supply. By adjusting production levels, OPEC influences crude oil prices significantly. Additionally, other regions like Russia and the United States contribute to the world's oil supply, further affecting market dynamics. Factors Affecting Crude Oil Prices In oil trading, economics is a fundamental aspect that traders need to grasp to make educated decisions. Several factors drive the price of crude oil, and here are some of the most significant: Supply and Demand: At its core, the price of crude oil is determined by how much of it is available (supply) versus how much is wanted (demand). An oversupply can depress prices, while high demand can cause prices to spike. Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, wars, and diplomatic tensions in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, affecting prices. For instance, sanctions on Iran or instability in Venezuela can push prices higher. Currency Fluctuations: Oil prices are generally quoted in US dollars. A strong dollar can make oil more expensive for countries using other currencies, thereby affecting demand. Seasonal Changes: During winter, demand for heating oil can rise, pushing crude oil prices up. Conversely, a mild winter might result in lower demand and prices. Technological Advances: Innovations in extraction methods, such as fracking, can alter the supply landscape, making it easier to extract oil and thereby affecting prices. OPEC Decisions: As previously mentioned, OPEC has a significant influence on oil prices. Their production quotas can tighten or flood the market, causing price swings. Economic Indicators: Data like unemployment rates, manufacturing output, and interest rates can indicate the health of an economy, which in turn can affect oil consumption and prices. How Is Crude Oil Traded? When learning how to trade crude oil, traders have a variety of instruments to choose from. However, it’s also important to be aware of its trading hours and how leverage is used. Crude Oil Instruments Futures Contracts: A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity of crude oil at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Both WTI and Brent Crude have their own futures contracts traded on exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Contracts for Difference (CFDs): This financial derivative allows traders to speculate on oil price movements without owning the actual commodity. Essentially, you're entering into a contract with a broker to exchange the difference between the opening and closing prices of the crude oil position. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): These are investment funds traded on stock exchanges. ETFs such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) or the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) provide exposure to oil prices by either tracking the commodity's price or investing in oil-related equities. Options: These financial instruments give traders the right but not the obligation to buy or sell crude oil at a fixed price before a certain date. They offer more flexibility but are generally considered riskier due to their complex nature. Spot Market: In the spot market, physical crude oil is bought and sold for immediate delivery. However, this is less common for retail traders due to the logistical challenges involved. At FXOpen, we offer both WTI and Brent Crude CFDs. To get started with oil trading, software such as our free TickTrader platform can provide the technical analysis tools necessary to analyse crude markets. Trading Hours Crude oil markets are open almost around the clock, offering high liquidity and the potential for trading opportunities at various times. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), for example, is open for trading from Sunday evening until Friday afternoon, with a daily trading break. The most active trading hours are generally during the US (9:00 AM to 2:30 PM EST) and European sessions (6:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST). Leverage Leverage allows traders to use small amounts of capital to control a larger position. While this can amplify profits, it also increases risk. Most retail traders opt for trading crude oil through CFDs, which often come with higher leverage options, making it essential to manage risk carefully. Crude Oil Trading Strategies Given the volatile nature of crude oil prices, traders employ specific strategies to capitalise on price fluctuations. Here are some strategies particularly useful for crude oil trading: Trend Following with Moving Averages The trend is your friend, especially in commodities like crude oil. One effective way to follow the trend is by using moving averages, such as the 50-day (blue) and 200-day (orange). When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it's generally a bullish signal, and vice versa for a bearish trend. However, as with all technical analysis tools, moving averages can sometimes trigger false signals. Range Trading Due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, crude oil prices often fluctuate within a specific range. Identifying these ranges can be useful for short-term trading. Traders buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end, applying technical indicators like RSI or Stochastic Oscillator for entry and exit signals. News-Based Trading In crude oil markets, news about OPEC decisions, US oil inventory data, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements can dramatically impact prices. Traders keeping an eye on oil news can take advantage of sudden announcements or an economic release likely to push prices in a particular direction. Given the high leverage commonly available in CFD trading, this strategy can be profitable but also comes with significant risk. The Bottom Line In crude oil trading, having the right strategies and tools is essential for success. By understanding the fundamentals, market dynamics, and utilising specific trading techniques, you are now equipped with the knowledge you need to get started. To access these markets with competitive spreads and rapid execution speeds, consider opening an FXOpen account and step confidently into the world of crude oil trading. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSDEducation
by FXOpen
16
Day Trader's Toolbox Part 3: Average True Range (ATR) Welcome to the final instalment of our Day Trader's Toolbox series, in which we highlight some essential tools and indicators which have the potential to transform your day trading. Today we lift the lid on the Average True Range or ATR – a simple yet highly effective tool when analysing the price movement of any market. We’ll explain how ATR helps you to view the market through the eyes of a professional trader and we’ll outline the three core uses for ATR in day trading. I. Understanding ATR: What is ATR? Okay, let’s start with the basics: ATR is designed to measure market volatility by calculating the average range between the high and low prices over a specific period. Without delving into the ATR formula, it's important to understand that this indicator takes price gaps into account. This factor provides traders with an authentic representation of market volatility. On TradingView, the ATR indicator appears as a line underneath your chart. And whilst it can be calculated on any timeframe, we typically talk about ATR in terms of the daily timeframe – hence ATR will tell us how much we can expect a stock to move up or down in typical trading day. Daily ATR on Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Start Seeing Price Movement Like a Seasoned Trader Have you ever found yourself drawn to the lists of top gainers and losers on stock trading platforms? It's a common fascination for novice traders, as these lists provide quick summaries of what's "hot" on any given day. However, seasoned traders know that evaluating stock prices solely based on percentage movements is about as practical as a paper umbrella in a rainstorm. To illustrate this point, consider two stocks, Stock A and Stock B, both opening with a 3% increase. Yet, Stock A typically fluctuates by 3% on an average day, while Stock B usually moves by 1.5%. In this context, Stock B's price movement is far more significant. This is where ATR comes into play. ATR normalises market price movements, making it a valuable tool for comparing a stock's price changes against its historical performance and its peer group. So, it's time to shift your perspective. Leave behind the world of percentage-based analysis and adopt ATR to see price movement through the eyes of a professional trader. II. 3 Ways to Use ATR When Day Trading 1. Profit Targets Consider this day trading scenario: The market has broken above its previous day's high (PDH), and the price is showing signs of consolidation while staying above VWAP. With these clear signals of strength and insights from your higher timeframe analysis, you decide to go long. Now, the question is, where do you place your profit target? Answer: As a day trader, your goal is to capitalise on intraday price movements and avoid holding positions overnight, thereby mitigating overnight risks. This means that setting a structural target, such as the next resistance level, may not be practical. However, if you incorporate the daily ATR with the current day's low, it provides you with an exceptionally realistic profit target. This target is entirely objective and calibrated to the specific market's current level of volatility. It's important to note that ATR is an average, so it should be used as a guide rather than an absolute rule. Nevertheless, having a tool to adjust your profit expectations is invaluable, especially in the emotionally charged environment of day trading. Example: ATR based profit target Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Stop Placement In swing trading, where positions are held over several trading sessions to capture price swings, using multiples of the ATR for stop placement is a smart strategy. It helps keep your stops outside of market noise and enhances risk management. However, when it comes to day trading, it's understandable that stops need to be considerably smaller. But that doesn't mean we can't use ATR to fine-tune our stop loss levels according to market volatility. Day traders can benefit from using a multiple of a lower timeframe ATR to establish a volatility-adjusted stop loss. This approach is often more effective than simply placing a stop below the nearest level of support. For day traders using a 5-minute candle chart, a stop set at 10 times the ATR on this timeframe is a reasonable starting point. Keep in mind that ATR serves as a normaliser of price movement across different markets. Using ATR for stop placement allows for consistency in risk management across the various markets you trade. For day traders who prefer locking in profits as a trade moves in their favour, an ATR trailing stop can be an invaluable tool. It trails the stop a certain number of ATRs below the close of a specified number of bars, dynamically adjusting to the market's volatility. TradingView offers numerous ATR trailing stop indicators just search for “ATR Trailing Stop” in the indicators tab. Example: ATR Trailing Stop Loss Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Measuring Overextension Just as ATR proves invaluable in setting realistic profit targets calibrated to market volatility, it also serves as an objective measure to define when a market is overextended. There are various methods to use ATR for this purpose, but one of the most straightforward approaches involves Keltner Channels, which envelop an ATR band on either side of an exponential moving average. When the price moves beyond the boundaries of the Keltner Channels, it is considered overextended. Day traders can experiment with Keltner Channel settings. The standard setup involves using 2.5 times the ATR wrapped around a 20-period exponential moving average. Wider bands (a higher ATR multiplier) across a longer period of the moving average generate fewer signals, while narrower bands across a shorter period produce more signals. Incorporating Keltner Channels, in conjunction with support and resistance levels, provides an additional layer of confirmation for day traders, enhancing their ability to assess overextension in the market. Example: Keltner Channels: S&P 500 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results In summary, ATR is a versatile tool for day traders, helping them navigate volatile markets with precision. It aids in setting realistic profit targets, fine-tuning stop placement, and identifying market overextension. By incorporating ATR into your trading strategy, you can make informed decisions and manage risk more effectively. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Capitalcom
3
NEAR Q3 OverviewExecutive Summary NEAR Protocol stands as a Layer-1 (L1) smart contract blockchain that couples a state-of-the-art sharded architecture with an emphasis on offering a user experience reminiscent of Web 2 platforms. While maintaining the security and decentralization integral to blockchains, NEAR aims to surpass the capabilities of prior chains, such as Ethereum, in terms of usability, efficiency, and scalability. Recognizing and aiming to overcome Ethereum's limitations, NEAR incorporates sharding. This key distinction allows the blockchain to significantly enhance its throughput, accommodating a more substantial transaction volume by dividing the blockchain into smaller, concurrent shards. A pivotal differentiator for the NEAR Protocol, sharding was introduced in November 2021 as Nightshade. This technique allows validators to process only transactions specific to their assigned shards, enabling potentially infinite scalability. For end users and investors, Nightshade ensures quicker transaction speeds at reduced fees. Diverging from traditional sharding methods that split the blockchain into multiple states, NEAR's design maintains the blockchain as a singularly sharded entity. Additionally, a synchronized state mechanism ensures that a change in one block's state prompts adjustments in other shards correspondingly. In March 2023, NEAR unveiled the Blockchain Operating System (BOS), a groundbreaking open-source platform that allows developers to craft applications across various blockchain environments using well-known programming languages. Moreover, it provides crypto users with an experience reminiscent of Web 2. Designed to be inclusive, BOS appeals to Web3 veterans and those new to the decentralized web. By ensuring easy onboarding, robust security, and seamless cross-chain interactions, BOS is setting a new paradigm for Web 3 application development. The NEAR Foundation, with the inception of the NEAR Digital Collective (NDC) and a pivot to community DAOs, is pioneering a transition to a more democratized and decentralized framework compared to the conventional Board-based system. Launched in Q3 2022, the NDC represents a concerted effort to decentralize decision-making within the NEAR network, emphasizing transparency through defined treasury management and embracing decentralized governance with on-chain voting. Furthermore, the NDC aspires to advance validator decentralization and stimulate the development of the core protocol and infrastructure. Looking forward into 2024, the Near protocol will introduce several pivotal milestones, including the next step in Nightshade sharding, meta transactions, zero-balance accounts, a Global Storage proposal, and more. Introduction to Near NEAR Protocol is a Layer-1 (L1) smart contract blockchain with a bleeding-edge sharded design and an emphasis on an intuitive Web 2-like customer experience, all while preserving the security and decentralization users expect with a blockchain. Established in 2018, it sets out to achieve improved usability, efficiency, and scalability over preceding chains like Ethereum. Founded by Illia Polosukhin and Alexander Skidanov and spearheaded by the Near Collective, the NEAR Protocol was envisioned to serve as a community-driven cloud computing PoS blockchain and a decentralized hub tailored explicitly for hosting innovative decentralized applications. The central motivation behind NEAR's technology is to prevent network congestion and furnish a conducive environment for developers, thereby promoting on-chain protocol development. Early on, NEAR identified certain operational challenges in Ethereum, particularly related to network congestion and high/volatile gas fees, that it looked to solve. To do so, Near turned towards sharding. A key differentiator for NEAR, sharding, in essence, provides the ability for a blockchain to increase its throughput and handle a larger number of transactions by partitioning the blockchain into smaller parallel shards. In its pursuits, Near introduced an original approach to sharding in November 2021 known as Nightshade, initially unveiled as Simple Nightshade. The underlying principle of Nightshade is that validators are not burdened with the task of processing every incoming transaction. Instead, they only handle transactions that are within specific shards. By doing so, Nightshade paves the way for theoretically limitless scalability. But what does this mean for the end user or investor? Primarily, this approach, which is entirely abstracted from the end-user experience, allows for reduced transaction fees while ensuring rapid transaction speeds. Additionally, Near recently launched a new initiative in early 2023 known as the Blockchain Operating System (BOS). This development represents a significant shift in how we perceive blockchain platforms. The BOS is designed to integrate seamlessly with various blockchain systems while facilitating decentralization and discoverability, which have historically been impossible to achieve together. Essentially, the BOS is grounded in blockchain technology but broadens its application by acting as a universal layer, making it adaptable to different blockchain frameworks. One of its primary features is the provision of a decentralized platform for front-end development. This platform aims to simplify the creation of blockchain applications by emphasizing clarity and flexibility. One of the core advantages of BOS is its potential to decentralize user interactions, improve security protocols, and enhance the modularity of components. Additionally, it prioritizes compatibility across diverse blockchains, presenting developers with a more intuitive and straightforward development environment. NEAR Technologies Blockchain Operating System (BOS) In March 2023, the NEAR protocol introduced the Blockchain Operating System (BOS), an open-source platform empowering developers with the flexibility to build across diverse blockchain environments using familiar programming languages and equipping crypto users with a familiar Web 2 UX. The BOS is designed to be inclusive and democratize the open, catering not only to seasoned web3 enthusiasts but also to the broader audience who might be newer to the decentralized web. A significant breakthrough in the system is eliminating the immediate need for a new user to own any cryptocurrency, substantially reducing the friction of user onboarding. Additionally, the BOS interface streamlines access and navigation, making it more user-friendly for both developers and the general populace. Moreover, it enables users to search through a portal to diverse communities and applications, all the while prioritizing data privacy. Further, the BOS's user-centric design, coupled with its focus on accessibility, does not just simplify the onboarding experience but also bolsters the discovery of new applications. Remarkably, the BOS functions both as a development platform and a social network. It’s an environment where users can both deploy and unearth new applications. In delivering straightforward onboarding procedures, unmatched security, and fluid interactions across all chains, the BOS is reshaping the framework for constructing Web 3 applications. Source BOS Under the Hood The Blockchain Operating System (BOS) by NEAR seeks to redefine the landscape of Web3 applications through its unique architecture based on three pivotal elements: components, blockchains, and gateways. Here, we will delve into the significance of each element and examine how they collectively shape the BOS framework. Components: The Building Blocks of BOS Components exist at the decentralized application (dApp) layer and can be equated with notable platforms such as Lido, Uniswap, Compound, and others. They stand out for their on-chain storage, high degree of transparency, and their ability for developers to fork these applications, harnessing their functionalities and composability to craft comprehensive web applications. Storing the entirety of a component's code on-chain not only ensures auditability but also bolsters security. With the code readily available for scrutiny in blockchain explorers, users can operate these applications locally, enjoying resilience against potential censorship and a streamlined user experience. This ability to natively audit and locally run the applications represents a paradigm shift in the user-app relationship. Blockchains: The Underlying Infrastructure The versatility of components and the BOS becomes apparent in their ability to interact with numerous blockchains and smart contracts instead of just one chain. Currently, BOS offers compatibility with all EVM chains, such as Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism, as well as, the native NEAR platform. As EVM chains dominate the TVL in the DeFi space, the BOS’ ability to work across nearly all enables users to tap into nearly all the liquidity and top dApps in the crypto economy. NEAR's capability to efficiently and cost-effectively store HTML/CSS/JS makes it the preferred choice for hosting app source codes. Gateways: Bridging the Gap to Decentralization Gateways, the third pillar of the BOS, facilitate the delivery of decentralized front-ends to a broader audience. Each gateway is underpinned by a bespoke virtual machine (VM) equipped to load and run frontends for protocols, be they Ethereum-based, Layer 2 solutions, or alt-L1 platforms like NEAR. All code pertaining to these frontends finds its home on the NEAR blockchain. The gateways are diverse, ranging from wallets and portfolio tools to distinct applications like SWEAT. They cater to tasks as rudimentary as adding swap functionality or as intricate as erecting decentralized app stores. Integrating this expansive functionality requires just the addition of a JavaScript library, followed by a selection of desired app front-ends. Prominent gateway exemplars include near.org, bos.gg, near.social, Cantopia, and nearpad.dev. The decentralization of composable front ends enabled by the BOS is unique to Near, filling a conspicuous and much-needed void in the crypto arena. Instead of relying on centralized data servers, these front ends are blockchain-stored, promoting both composability and resistance to potential censorship. Historical instances, such as Uniswap's token delisting and the sanctions imposed on Tornado Cash, underscore the vulnerabilities of front ends. BOS’s decentralized approach allows developers the flexibility to fork these front ends and build in the truly OSINT environment that the cryptocurrency movement was built upon. BOS Advantages The BOS aims to integrate decentralization with discoverability and developer flexibility. Central to the BOS framework is its array of Web3 development tools that are crafted with the intent of pushing Web3 mainstream. From the onset, the system is designed to enhance user onboarding, improve cross-chain development and app discoverability, and create a seamless UX for Web3 users. This last point on abstracting away different blockchains for a seamless Web3 experience has benefits beyond simply improving UX. It can potentially also reduce the liquidity fragmentation and tribalism associated with a fragmented crypto economy built around disparate, siloed blockchains. The BOS proposes a solution to this by striving for a consistent user experience across multiple blockchains and allowing developers globally to access and implement various Web3 components. With users and developers now (potentially) unable to discern which blockchain they are using, there is no longer a need to promote one over the other. None of this is possible without the composability offered by the BOS. The system aims to be chain and language-agnostic, allowing developers to reuse and adjust different components while utilizing the language of their choice. The BOS supports a variety of languages for smart contract development, including JavaScript, Rust, AssemblyScript, and Solidity. Complementing this are their collaborations with established cloud providers, namely Google, Seracle, and Alibaba Cloud, to make transitioning from Web2 to Web3 as comfortable as possible. In addition, NEAR has initiated the NEAR Dev Hub, a platform envisioned as a resource hub for developers. Preliminary outputs from this initiative include sponsored hackathons and the establishment of community groups. Thresholded Proof of Stake The NEAR Protocol operates on a distinct consensus mechanism known as "Thresholded Proof of Stake" (TPoS). Similar to other PoS implementations, TPoS still uses validators, who must stake NEAR tokens to participate, to validate transactions and ensure the integrity/security of the network. However, within the TPoS environment, validators can assume one of four pivotal roles: Chunk Producers: Their primary responsibility is to authenticate transactions on individual shards, subsequently crafting a chunk, often referred to as a "shard block", from their designated shard. Block Producers: These validators gather chunks from their chunk-producing counterparts associated with discrete shards. Their function culminates in the production of a block, which is then added to the primary chain. Hidden Validators: Operating under a veil of confidentiality, these validators authenticate random shards — shards whose identity remains a secret to them and is undisclosed to the public. This veil serves a dual purpose. Firstly, it considerably complicates the task for any malevolent entities attempting to compromise them. Secondly, it robustly augments the chain's overall security measures. Fishermen: Actively overseeing certain chain segments, these validators act as the guardians against fraudulent activities. They constantly monitor, ready to flag any nefarious activities. Interestingly, their operational requirements are modest — a minimal stake. However, this role, though critical, doesn't confer any rewards. Central to TPoS is its innovative auction system employed to select validators. This methodology, in essence, discourages the practice of pooling. When validators amass resources, they not only amplify their individual rewards but also consolidate control over the chain. Such centralization runs counter to the foundational principles of blockchain, which emphasize distributed control. The TPoS design confronts this challenge head-on by placing natural barriers against pooling. Additionally, TPoS tackles the issue of consensus forking — a scenario in which multiple validators simultaneously contribute blocks to the chain. Such events can elongate the time required for transaction finality. By minimizing the possibility of these forking instances, TPoS ensures swifter transaction finality. Validator Requirements Validators bear the critical responsibility of validating and executing transactions across the entirety of NEAR's sharded blockchain. Additionally, they monitor their peers (other validators), ensuring no invalid blocks are produced or alternate chains are formed. Validators found compromising network stability undergo "slashing," where part or all of their staked assets are confiscated. To compensate for their services and inherent risks, NEAR validators receive a inflationary protocol rewards, amounting to 4.5% of the total supply annually. Given the complexity of the validator role, there are stringent hardware requirements (e.g. costs) for anyone looking to run one. To effectively run a validator, a robust system configuration, consisting of an 8-Core CPU, 16GB of RAM, and 1 TB SSD storage, is necessary. Current estimates indicate that the monthly expenditure for hosting a block-producing validator node stands at $330+. This excerpt just scratches the surface, for the full report, click here .
Education
by ReflexivityResearch
5
The very Fat tail of the Market!The trading value of the 5078 stock tickers traded in the 6088 billion USD. Hence, the trading value of the top 10 tickers with the highest dollar value of trading was 1811 billion USD, almost 29.75% of all circulated dollars in the market. The fact that the top 10 tickers account for almost 29.75% of all trading value is a sign of market inefficiency. This suggests that the market is skewed towards a few large tickers. This can lead to increased risk for investors who are trying to exploit market inefficiencies. The top 10 tickers were: TSLA: Accounts for more than 7.2% of all trades, 10.3% of S&P500 trades, and 18.98% of NASDAQ100 NVDA: Accounts for more than 6.8% of all trades, 10.3% of S&P500 trades, and 15.27% of NASDAQ100 AAPL MSFT AMZN META AMD BRK.A NFLX GOOG The top 10 tickers account for 70.55% of all trading value of tickers on the NASDAQ 100..! The top 10 tickers account for 38.54% of all trading value of tickers on the S&P500..! The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are both broad market indices that track the performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States and the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, respectively. These indices are widely used by investors as benchmarks for their portfolios. However, the fact that the top 10 tickers account for such a large share of trading value suggests that these indices may not be as representative of the overall market as they once were. This is because the performance of the top 10 tickers can have a disproportionate impact on the performance of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. The high kurtosis in the distribution of trading values also suggests that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 may not be as good at capturing the full range of risk and return potential in the market. This is because the distribution of trading values is skewed towards a few large tickers. This means that there is a greater potential for large losses in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 than would be suggested by their average returns. As a result of these factors, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 may be less useful for investors who are looking for a diversified portfolio that is representative of the overall market and that has a low risk of large losses. Implications The fact that the top 10 tickers had such a significant impact on the overall trading dollar value has a few implications. 1st: it means that investors who focus on investing in the top 10 tickers are more likely to generate higher returns than investors who invest in a wider range of tickers. 2nd: it means that regulators need to be aware of the potential for market manipulation by investors who have large holdings in the top 10 tickers. 3rd: it means that investors need to be careful not to over-concentrate their portfolios in the top 10 tickers, as this could make them more vulnerable to losses if the performance of these tickers deteriorates. 4th: The correlation between the tickers and indexes may be overstated. This is because the performance of the top 10 tickers has a disproportionate impact on the performance of the indexes. As a result, the correlation between the tickers and indexes may not be representative of the correlation between the individual tickers. 5th: The correlation between the tickers and indexes may be less informative. This is because the correlation between the tickers and indexes does not provide any information about the specific relationships between the individual tickers. For example, the correlation between the tickers and indexes does not tell us whether the individual tickers are moving in the same direction or in opposite directions. Conclusion: Even among the top 10 tickers, TSLA and NVDA have dragged too much attention from most market participants, and the Future of the market is very dependent on the future movements of these 2 tickers! Education: A fat tail in statistics is a feature of a distribution where the tails of the distribution are thicker than those of a normal distribution. This means that there are more extreme values in the distribution than would be expected under a normal distribution.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Moshkelgosha
21
Unlocking Trend Reversals: Mastering Bollinger Bands and VWAPsIn this comprehensive video tutorial, we will delve into the powerful techniques of utilizing Bollinger Bands and VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) to identify and master trend reversals in the futures market. ES1! You will learn how to leverage these volatility-based indicators to detect potential turning points in price trends. By understanding Bollinger Bands' ability to highlight periods of market consolidation and expansion, you will gain an edge in predicting trend shifts and take advantage of profitable opportunities. Additionally, we will explore the significance of VWAPs, an essential tool for analyzing price and volume dynamics. By combining volume-weighted prices with Bollinger Bands, you will be equipped with a comprehensive approach to assess market liquidity, support, and resistance levels. Throughout this tutorial, I provide step-by-step guidance to effectively interpret the signals generated by Bollinger Bands and VWAPs, empowering you to make informed trading decisions. We will also address common misconceptions that can often lead to misinterpretations and false signals. Whether you are a seasoned trader seeking to refine your strategy or a beginner eager to grasp these technical indicators, this video is designed to provide valuable insights and practical knowledge that can elevate your trading outcomes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by anthonycrudele
7
Decoding Market Patterns:10 Essential Price Patterns Every TradeIn the intricate world of trading, price patterns are the footprints left by market sentiment. Understanding these patterns is like deciphering a complex code, revealing insights into potential market movements. Today we will explore 10 essential price patterns every trader should recognize. Each pattern is a chapter in the dynamic story of market behavior, offering opportunities to identify trends, reversals, and strategic entry or exit points. 1. Bull Flag: The Flagbearer of Continuation A Bull Flag is a continuation pattern, often seen in strong uptrends. It resembles a flagpole (the initial price spike) followed by a rectangular flag (consolidation phase). When the price breaks above the upper boundary of the flag, it signals a potential continuation of the uptrend. 2. Bear Flag: The Bearish Counterpart The Bear Flag is the opposite of the Bull Flag. It appears in downtrends, with a flagpole representing the initial price drop followed by a consolidation period. When the price breaches the lower boundary of the flag, it indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. 3. Head and Shoulders: The Classic Trend Reversal The Head and Shoulders pattern is a powerful reversal indicator. It consists of three peaks – the central peak (head) is higher than the surrounding peaks (shoulders). When the price drops below the neckline (a line drawn through the lowest points of the shoulders), it suggests a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. 4. Inverse Head and Shoulders: The Bullish Resurgence The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is the bullish counterpart of the Head and Shoulders. It occurs after a downtrend and indicates a potential reversal to an uptrend. The pattern consists of three troughs – the central trough (head) is lower than the surrounding troughs (shoulders). When the price rises above the neckline, it signals a potential shift from bearish to bullish. The cool thing about chat patterns is that they are everywhere. You often see many different chart patterns on a singular chart, or smaller patterns that are a part of a larger pattern. The tricky part is finding them and appropriately identifying them. 5. Double Top: The Bearish Reversal Duo A Double Top pattern occurs after an uptrend and signals a potential reversal. It consists of two peaks at nearly the same price level, indicating a struggle to push the price higher. When the price falls below the trough between the peaks, it suggests a possible shift from bullish to bearish. 6. Double Bottom: The Bullish Reversal Duo The Double Bottom is the bullish counterpart of the Double Top. It occurs after a downtrend and signals a potential reversal to an uptrend. It consists of two troughs at nearly the same price level, indicating a struggle to push the price lower. When the price rises above the peak between the troughs, it suggests a potential shift from bearish to bullish. 7. Rising Wedge: The Rising Price Constrictor A Rising Wedge is a bearish continuation or reversal pattern. It can form during a downtrend or in an uptrend where buying pressure becomes exhausted. The wedge is characterized by converging trend lines that slope upward. While the price may make higher highs and higher lows, the pattern tightens, indicating weakening momentum. When the price breaks below the lower trendline, it suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend or reversal of an uptrend. Rising Wedge Reversal Example: Rising Wedge Continuation Example: 8. Falling Wedge: The Falling Price Constrictor The Falling Wedge is the bullish counterpart of the Rising Wedge. It forms during an uptrend or a downtrend, characterized by converging trend lines that slope downward. While the price may make lower highs and lower lows, the pattern tightens, indicating weakening selling pressure. When the price breaks above the upper trendline, it suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend. Falling Wedge Continuation Example: Falling Wedge Reversal Example: 9. Symmetrical Triangle: The Balance of Bulls and Bears A Symmetrical Triangle is a neutral pattern that forms during a trend, indicating a period of consolidation. It is characterized by converging trend lines that slope in opposite directions. When the price breaks above the upper trendline, it signals a potential bullish move, and when it breaks below the lower trendline, it signals a potential bearish move. 10. Pennant: The Brief Consolidation Pause A Pennant is a continuation pattern that forms after a strong price movement. It resembles a small symmetrical triangle, indicating a brief consolidation before the previous trend resumes. When the price breaks above the upper boundary, it suggests a potential bullish continuation, and when it breaks below the lower boundary, it suggests a potential bearish continuation. Important Thing To Consider: Price patterns are a tool that if practiced and executed properly can be a great asset for any trader. There are a few things that all traders should keep in mind when using price patterns to make trading decisions. Context is critical: Price patterns don't exist in isolation; they occur within the context of larger market trends. It's essential to consider the prevailing market conditions, including the overall trend (bullish, bearish, or sideways), volume trends, and recent price action. Confirmation is Key: While recognizing a price pattern is an important skill, relying solely on its formation might lead to premature or false trades. Traders should always wait for confirmation signals before taking action. Confirmation can come in the form of a price breakout above a pattern's resistance level, a significant increase in trading volume confirming the pattern's direction, or additional technical indicators aligning with the pattern's signal. Waiting for confirmation helps traders filter out false signals, reducing the risk of entering trades based solely on pattern Risk management is paramount: No pattern, regardless of its historical accuracy, guarantees a profitable trade. Traders must always implement proper risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders and defining acceptable levels of risk per trade as a percentage of their trading capital. Risk management ensures that even if a trade based on a price pattern fails to materialize as expected, the impact on the trader's overall portfolio remains manageable. Practice, practice, practice: Identifying price patterns is a skill that improves with practice and experience. Traders should dedicate time to studying historical charts, both in live markets and during backtesting. Regularly practicing pattern charting enhances the ability to spot patterns quickly and accurately. TradingView offers a great set of tools to help anyone get started by offering a full line of automated pattern recognition indicators for educational and research use. Utilizing these automated pattern recognition indicators is a great way to visualize patterns in the real world as patterns are often less clean than textbook examples. Recognizing these price patterns equips traders with a valuable skill set for navigating a dynamic market. However, it's vital to remember that patterns, like pieces of a puzzle, offer meaningful insights when combined with other indicators and thorough analysis. No single pattern guarantees profits, and each should be evaluated within the context of the broader market conditions. By integrating pattern recognition into a holistic trading strategy, traders can unlock the door to more informed, confident, and strategic trading decisions. Happy trading! Ben with LeafAlgo
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by LeafAlgo
19
Five of the Best Volatility IndicatorsVolatility can seem like a scary concept at first glance: wild price swings, stop-outs, and general unpredictability. However, there are volatility technical indicators that can help. This article covers five essential volatility indicators, discussing how they work and how they’re used to gauge market conditions. What Is Volatility? Volatility represents the range and rate at which the price of a financial asset moves over a specific timeframe. In other words, it gauges the degree of variation in a trading price. High volatility often correlates with higher risks and potential rewards, while low volatility suggests a less turbulent market with lower risks and potential rewards. Volatility Technical Indicators Volatility indicators are specialised tools that help traders quantify these price swings, making it easier to forecast future movements. They can help traders identify potential breakouts or market reversals by revealing periods of accumulation or distribution. By providing a clearer understanding of market temperament, these indicators equip traders to make more calculated decisions – be it in forex, commodities, or stock markets. These indicators can be overlaid on price charts to offer visual cues, thereby simplifying complex data. They are commonly used alongside other technical indicators like moving averages and momentum oscillators to reinforce their signals. Best Volatility Indicators List Now, let’s take a closer look at five of the best volatility indicators. To see how they work for yourself, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll find each indicator ready to use. Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are a volatility indicator invented by technical analyst John Bollinger in the 1980s. The indicator consists of three bands: a middle band, which is a simple moving average (SMA) of the asset's price, and two outer bands that are placed two standard deviations away from the middle band. These bands adjust dynamically with volatility, widening during periods of high volatility and contracting when volatility is low. In trading, Bollinger Bands serve multiple purposes. They can identify overbought or oversold conditions when the asset's price reaches the upper or lower bands. The width of the bands also helps in recognising periods of increasing or decreasing volatility, often signalling potential market transitions. Traders frequently use Bollinger Bands to confirm trend reversals or to validate other technical signals. Average True Range (ATR) The Average True Range (ATR) is a volatility indicator introduced by J. Welles Wilder in 1978. Unlike Bollinger Bands, which envelop price action, ATR is a single line that typically appears below a price chart. The indicator calculates the average of true ranges – essentially the greatest value among the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close – over a set number of periods. ATR is primarily used for setting stop-loss levels and gauging the volatility of an asset. It doesn't offer any clues about price direction, making it a "pure" volatility measure. Higher ATR values indicate increased volatility and may suggest that price jumps or drops are more probable, warranting caution. Lower ATR values signify lower volatility, often seen during sideways market movements. Keltner Channels Keltner Channels are another volatility-based indicator, created by Chester Keltner in 1960 but later modified by Linda Raschke. This indicator consists of three lines: a central line, which is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the asset's price, and two outer bands calculated based on the ATR. Typically, the outer bands are set two ATR values away from the central EMA. Much like Bollinger Bands, the width of the Keltner Channels expands and contracts based on market volatility. These channels are particularly useful for identifying trend continuations and reversals. For instance, a price that moves toward the upper band often indicates bullish activity, whereas a movement toward the lower band suggests bearish behaviour. Chaikin Volatility Indicator The Chaikin Volatility Indicator, developed by Marc Chaikin, focuses on the expansion and contraction of price movement, differentiating it from other volatility indicators. Instead of using trading volume or calculating the average range, this indicator measures the difference between two EMAs of an asset's price, typically over 10 days. When the Chaikin Volatility Indicator shows an upward movement, it indicates an increase in price volatility, potentially signalling a market breakout or a strong trend. Conversely, a downward trend in the indicator often suggests a decrease in volatility, possibly pointing to a market consolidation phase. Because this indicator focuses solely on price behaviour, traders often pair it with volume-based indicators for more comprehensive analysis and confirmation of trading signals. Volatility Index (VIX) The Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, operates somewhat differently from typical volatility trading indicators. Developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the VIX quantifies market sentiment and volatility expectations for the next 30 days. It is often referred to as the "fear gauge," as it tends to spike during periods of market unrest or uncertainty. Calculated from the implied volatilities of S&P 500 index options, a high VIX value suggests that traders expect significant price swings, usually accompanying bearish market phases. On the other hand, a low VIX often indicates periods of complacency or confidence, generally correlating with bullish markets. While not directly applicable to an asset's price chart, the VIX serves as one of the leading stock volatility indicators, offering traders context for broader market conditions. The Bottom Line In essence, volatility indicators are invaluable tools in a trader's arsenal, helping to demystify often unpredictable price movements. Mastering and combining these indicators, especially with momentum and trend tools, can significantly enhance your decision-making process. To put these five tools into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account. We offer hundreds of tradable instruments and sophisticated charting tools, allowing you to navigate the markets with confidence. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
3
Mastering the Art of Investing: Common Mistakes & solutionsLet's keep it straight to the point, Shall We? 1. Emotional Investing: One of the most prevalent mistakes is allowing emotions to drive investment decisions. Fear and greed can lead to impulsive actions, such as panic selling during market downturns or chasing speculative investments during bullish phases. Solution: Develop a well-thought-out investment plan based on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Stick to this plan, regardless of short-term market fluctuations. Regularly review and adjust your portfolio, but do so based on rational analysis, not emotional reactions. 2. Lack of Diversification: Concentrating all investments in a single asset or industry exposes investors to significant risks. If that particular investment performs poorly, it can have a devastating impact on the overall portfolio. Solution: Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, industries, and geographic regions. This strategy helps reduce risk and improves the potential for more stable returns over the long term. 3. Market Timing: Attempting to time the market, i.e., buying and selling based on predictions of short-term price movements, is a common mistake. Even seasoned professionals struggle to consistently time the market correctly. Solution: Adopt a long-term investment approach. Time in the market is generally more important than timing the market. Stay invested and focus on your financial goals rather than trying to predict short-term market movements. 4. Overlooking Fees and Expenses: High investment fees and expenses can significantly erode returns over time. Many investors underestimate the impact of these costs. Solution: Be mindful of the fees associated with your investments, including expense ratios, broker commissions, and advisory fees. Consider low-cost index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as cost-efficient alternatives. 5. Ignoring Asset Allocation: Some investors focus solely on individual investments without considering how they fit into their overall portfolio. Neglecting proper asset allocation can expose portfolios to unnecessary risk. Solution: Determine an appropriate asset allocation based on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Rebalance your portfolio periodically to maintain the desired allocation. 6. Chasing Hot Tips and Fads: Acting on unsolicited stock tips or investing in the latest fads and trends can lead to poor decision-making and losses. Solution: Rely on thorough research and due diligence before making any investment. Avoid making impulsive decisions based on hearsay or the fear of missing out (FOMO). 7. Lack of Patience and Discipline: Investing is a long-term endeavor, and expecting quick riches can lead to disappointment and rash decisions. Solution: Cultivate patience and discipline in your investment approach. Stay committed to your long-term strategy and avoid making knee-jerk reactions to short-term market movements. Also, another good way of increasing discipline is giving us a boost for our efforts :) In conclusion, successful investing requires a well-structured plan, emotional resilience, and a commitment to disciplined decision-making. By avoiding these common mistakes and implementing the provided solutions, investors can increase their chances of achieving their financial goals and building a more secure financial future. Remember, investing is a journey, and learning from mistakes can ultimately lead to greater financial wisdom and success. Have Insights or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇 While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation🚀 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
NSE:M&MEducation
by TheChartereds
6
How to find Key Price Action zones for Daytrading successPrepping a market for daytrading is an important part of my process and understanding and identifying the KEY LEVELS is the major part of that process. We have to build a Price Action picture of what may happen and what levels may be targeted so we will be ready for a trade. Understanding who (buyers or sellers) is getting caught off side and levels the market is targeting, will set us up for the higher probability trades. I discuss a few key concepts for Intraday trading and how I identify the important zones. I show some trade examples and high probability trade zones. ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
16
Day Trader's Toolbox: Previous Day's High and Low (PDH/PDL) Welcome to the Day Trader's Toolbox, a 3-Part series focused on enhancing your day trading skills. Day trading is all about seizing quick opportunities without overnight risk. In this first instalment, we'll delve into a fundamental tool every day trader should understand: the Previous Day's High (PDH) and Previous Day's Low (PDL). These levels are essential for making informed, rapid trading decisions, and we'll show you how to use them effectively. I. Understanding PDH and PDL: PDH and PDL are straightforward concepts. They signify the highest and lowest prices a market touched during the prior trading session. However, don't underestimate their significance. These levels are pivotal because they offer undeniable historical context for a market's price movement. As a result, they draw the attention of many market participants, increasing the likelihood of non-random price action at these levels. Here's why PDH and PDL stand out as the two most vital price lines a day trader can mark on their chart. Gauging strength or weakness PDH and PDL offer an objective glimpse into market sentiment, which holds immense value when formulating your daily trade plan. During the first hours trading, if the market comfortably holding above the PDH it is a clear sign of strength while failure to hold above the PDL is a clear sign of weakness. Just being aware of this simple concept can help keep day traders on the right side of the market. Here’s some examples: Holding above PDH is a clear sign of strength (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Failure to hold above PDL is a clear sign of weakness (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Price reversals: Traders use PDH and PDL to set stop-loss orders, take-profit levels, and as reference points for assessing the risk-reward ratio of a trade. Given the close attention PDH and PDL receive, they often act as both support and resistance levels, making them prime zones for potential price reversals. A reversal pattern forming at PDH or PDL typically carries greater significance than one occurring within the prior day's range. And should a market break and hold above the PDH, it can then provide support when the level is retested. Conversely, a break below PDL may offer resistance when the market trades below it. Here’s some examples: PDH and PDL acting as support and resistance (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Broken PDH becomes support (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Broken PDL becomes resistance (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Take note of the compelling examples above. No additional indicators clutter the chart. Armed only with an understanding of how price reacts to PDH and PDL, you can make smart day trading decisions. For a deeper understanding, add PDH and PDL to your price charts and explore your own instances. You'll be astonished by how the market consistently responds to these levels. II. How to Use PDH and PDL Here are some practical tips for using PDH and PDL effectively in day trading: Identify PDH and PDL: Before you start trading, identify the PDH and PDL levels for the market you are trading. You can draw these levels on yourself or type in ‘Previous Day High and Low’ into the Indicators, Metrics and Strategies bar on Trading View – here you will find a number of scripts that will add PDH and PDL to your charts automatically. Observe price behaviour: Using the concepts outlined in section one ‘Understanding PDH and PDL’, you can create a game plan for the trading day based upon where price is trading in relation to PDH or PDL. For example, if price has opened within the prior days range the day trader may look to take bearish reversal patterns at the PDH and bullish reversal patterns at the PDL. Alternatively, if price is comfortably holding above PDH, the day trader may look to buy pullbacks. Combine with other indicators: PDH and PDL are even more powerful when used in conjunction with other technical indicators such as Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), moving averages, RSI and many other. This can help validate your trading decisions. Set stop-loss and take-profit orders: Use PDH and PDL as reference points to set stop-loss and take-profit orders. This helps manage risk and lock in profits. Stay informed: Keep an eye on news and events that could impact the market. Unexpected news can sometimes cause price gaps that bypass PDH or PDL. Practice and learn: The best way to become proficient in using PDH and PDL is through practice. Use Replay mode on Trading View to scroll through and replay many different trading days and hone your skills. In summary, the Previous Day's High (PDH) and Previous Day's Low (PDL) are foundational tools for day traders. They offer valuable insights into market sentiment, help identify potential reversal points, and act as key support and resistance levels. By incorporating these levels into your daily trade plan, you can make more informed and strategic decisions, keeping you on the right side of the market. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
Education
by Capitalcom
17