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Demystifying Corn Demand, Supply, and SeasonalityCorn is a versatile crop. It is used in a variety of ways. Corn is a major source of food for humans and animals. It is also an input in industrial products, such as ethanol and plastics. According to the FAO, in the past year, over 1.1 billion tons of corn was produced worldwide. Gross production value stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. Previously , we highlighted that a bumper US harvest is expected to send corn prices tumbling. This paper is a primer on Corn. It describes demand and supply dynamics and delves into the usage of the crop, its price behaviour and seasonality, among others. Corn is an integral part of human diet. It is consumed both as staple food and in processed products. It is also an important animal feed source. Corn is used in the production of ethanol fuel, plastics, adhesives, and pharmaceutical products. It is also a primary ingredient in alcoholic beverages. SEASONALITY IN CORN PRICES The world’s largest corn producer is the US, representing 32% of production, followed by China with 23%. In October, harvest season in the US overlaps that in China, pushing corn prices to their lowest during the year. Based on data observed over the last 17-years, the seasonal impact of harvest in the US and Chinese on corn prices is clear. Corn price pop through the first half of the year and then plunge through Q3 until start of Q4 when the crops in the US, China, and Brazil commence harvesting. Based on front-month corn futures, the average prices of corn have ranged between 200 USc/bushel to 800 USc/bushel. Over the last 17-years, with the exceptions of six years (2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2021 and 2022), Corn prices tend to be stable through the year underpinned by stable demand and robust steady supply. However, external shocks such as the global financial crisis, pandemic, and the adverse weather conditions cause outsized impact leading to large price volatility. Based on CME front month corn futures prices, the heat map below shows an upward trend in corn prices from December until May which is the period immediately after US and China harvesting seasons. This phase also represents the corn planting season. As harvesting begins, corn prices tend to plunge from June until September before starting to recover. On average, based on the analysis into corn prices during the last 17 years, February, October, December, and April are months when corn prices turn bullish. While corn prices are most bearish during the months of June, July, and March. As corn is a hard crop which can grow in various climatic conditions, most countries have ample domestic production to match their needs with few relying on imports. Consequently, marginal demand from importers can have an outsized impact on prices. China is the largest importer despite huge domestic production. Other major importers include Brazil, Mexico, North Africa, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. WHAT DRIVES CORN DEMAND? Demand for corn is chiefly from animal feed followed by food and industrial use. Corn’s high protein and carbohydrate content makes it suitable animal feed for cattle, pigs, and chickens. Unsurprisingly, the US, representing 26% of global consumption, and China, representing 25% of global consumption, are also the largest consumers of corn due to their large livestock populations. The quantity of corn used for feed has remained largely unchanged ~5 billion bushels, since the late 2000’s. Another major demand driver is Ethanol production. Ethanol has many industrial uses, the foremost of which is gasoline blending. Ethanol complements gasoline as they are mixed to create a cleaner burning and higher performing transportation fuel. The demand for corn-ethanol mirrors gasoline demand. This year, the IEA expects 2% higher demand for Crude Oil and its by-products. Consequently, the USDA expects ethanol production to rise by the same margin. Corn supply used for Ethanol production rose sharply in the late 2000’s but has since plateaued around 40%. At the same time, share of corn consumption for feed declined from 60% to 40%. This was accommodated through higher corn production. Although not as significant as feed and ethanol, demand for human consumption of corn is another major contributor. Humans consume corn directly as cereal and in its processed forms. Corn can be processed into multiple by-products including Corn Flour, Corn Starch, Corn Syrup, Corn Oil, and Dextrose. Corn is present in most foods consumed by humans in one form or another. Corn flour like wheat flour is used for cooking and baking. Corn Starch is used as a thickening agent and binder for food and pharmaceutical production. Corn Syrup (also high-fructose corn syrup) is a cheap and effective sweetener created from corn starch used in the production of processed food as well as beverages such as Coca Cola. Dextrose is a sugar substitute used as an artificial sweetener and preservative. CORN INVENTORIES ENSURE SUPPLY YEAR ROUND Although corn supply is cyclical based on harvest levels, demand remains strong year-round. Corn inventories play a huge role in ensuring availability even months after the harvest. Excess corn that is not consumed in the year is carried over to the next to ensure that a baseline supply is always available. These carryover stocks are managed carefully by the USDA using regular demand and supply estimates that it publishes in a monthly WASDE report. Changes in carryover stock mirror supply-demand trends. The USDA generally maintains carryover stocks between 1-2 billion bushels. Last year, the US ended the year with 1.2 billion bushels of corn, sharply lower from the 1.9 billion bushels in 2020-21. However, a bumper harvest this year signals that carryover stocks from the current harvest season and marketing year are expected to surge 56% to 2.2 billion bushels. CORN SUPPLY, PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND PRICES IN 2023 Corn prices in 2023 have broken their seasonal trend with bumper harvest expected. In their general seasonal trend, as seen over the past 15 years, corn prices rise during the first half of the year as supplies from the previous year’s harvest start to get depleted. Prices fall sharply following the start of harvest season. However, corn’s price since the start of 2023 shows a divergence from this seasonal trend. Prices are sharply (-12%) lower YTD. This is due to strong planting in the US as well as weak import demand. USDA expects a record US corn harvest of 15.3 billion bushels this year. This is expected to lead to the highest levels of carryover stock since 2016-17. China’s imports and domestic production is expected to rebound sharply but is largely expected to be compensated for by huge carryover stocks in Brazil. Brazil is expected to be the largest corn exporter followed by the US. As such, harvests in both countries should be closely watched to identify shifts in projections. In case harvest in either country is lower than expected, it would not be able to match import demand from China which would lead to higher prices. Overall, USDA expects 27% lower average price for corn in 2023 at USc 480/bushel. This will lead to far higher global trade and consequently higher trading volumes in Corn futures. USDA’s WASDE REPORT IS AN IMPORANT RESOURCE FOR CORN TRADERS As stated, the USDA’s WASDE report is a critically important resource for investors. Specifically, the May WASDE report is vital for Corn as this is the start of the planting season and estimates in this report form the basis for the next marketing year’s outlook for major crops such as Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans. WASDE includes an outlook summary for each crop as well as statistics measuring the estimated demand, supply, exports, and carryover stocks for major countries as well as different regions within the US . The 2023 May WASDE report showed expectations of record global corn production as well as consumption. However, consumption is expected to lag production leading to larger ending stocks compared to last year. With higher ending stocks, supply of corn is expected to remain stable year-round. This is bearish for corn prices. Understanding the supply-demand characteristics in the WASDE report can equip investors with a long-term price outlook. Still, it is equally important to keep track of the market on an ongoing basis due to the myriad of factors affecting price as highlighted above. A summary of these is also given below. SIX KEY TAKEAWAYS In conclusion, the following key takeaways summarise this primer: 1. Corn is a versatile crop. It is a major source of food for humans and animals. 2. Gross production value of corn stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. 3. US and China are the world's largest corn producers and consumers, representing over half of global corn production & consumption. 4. Corn prices are heavily influenced by the harvest season in US and China which overlaps between September and October. 5. Major demand sources for corn are animal feed, industrial use (especially ethanol production), and human consumption . 6. May WASDE report showed expectations of record production and consumption of corn and higher ending stocks, leading to lower prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mintdotfinance
4
Hey Siri, why is NVIDIA Mooning?The simple answer is AI. Amongst other things, but currently AI is the latest Buzzword on everyone's lips! I recently posted a stream on how you can use chat GPT to make a pinescript indicator (see below) There are so many possibilities with AI and we are still early, very early! NVIDIA stock closed near a trillion-dollar market value this week as shares surged 25% following a better than expected earnings report from an artificial intelligence boom globally. This puts NVIDIA at around 160% plus on the year in terms of it's stock price. This in turn attracts late comers to the party. Of course, they were already on the up n up from growth since the Pandemic. The Covid outbreak and lockdowns around the world meant gaming took off in a big way. Cloud adoption surged and crypto enthusiasts turned to its chips for mining coins. To make things 'better' Goldman Sachs analysts now estimate that U.S. investment in AI could approach 1% of the country's economic output by 2030. All green lights for AI and NVIDIA. But the reason this tech company, more than others right now is soaring? Well, did you know??? The large computers that process data and power generative AI run on powerful chips called graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia produces about 80% of GPUs, according to analysts. What else is there to know? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
GOLD - Price can make movement up and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 After rising channel, price made upward impulse to $2030 level, thereby breaking past level. Next, Gold bounced of this level, made correction, and rose higher to resistance level. But price at once fell below and entered to flat, after which Gold made upward impulse again. Reaching $2065 point, price started to fall inside from falling channel. In channel, Gold broke two support levels and even fell below support area, but at once backed up to area. Now price continues to trade in support area, and maybe Gold can make movement up and then bounce down to $1930 support line. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
48
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7
Meme coinsIntroducing Meme-Coin Perspectives: Discovering the Art of Folly. Are you familiar with the ubiquitous X's on Pepe, Doge, Shiba, and the like? These symbols have permeated the world of meme-coins, capturing the attention of many. Now, let's delve into a captivating speculative concept known as the "Big Fool's Theory." Picture this: you knowingly acquire something seemingly worthless, fully aware that a bigger fool will emerge to purchase it at a higher price. In simpler terms, you anticipate someone eagerly buying an unnecessary wrapper at an exorbitant cost. What lies in store for those who embark on this venture? The allure stems from witnessing numerous individuals amassing fortunes out of thin air. As a result, a fiery blend of FOMO and curiosity engulfs the hearts of onlookers, compelling them to impulsively dive into the realm of memecoins. They yearn to emulate someone else's triumph or, perhaps, acquire a memecoin that has been resold countless times, now soaring at its zenith. Amusingly, some proponents extol the virtues of these whimsical tokens. When questioned about the benefits of such projects or their potential for growth, the answer is often a resounding, "someone else will buy." This prompts us to ponder: how does this fundamentally differ from a casino? In conclusion, the question remains: Can one truly profit by embracing the Big Fool's Theory, banking on the existence of a fool willing to pay a higher price? The resounding answer is yes. Yet, pause for a moment and contemplate: Could you, in turn, become that very fool? Best regards EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
52
Analyzing Short Opportunities in KAVAGreetings, Traders, Today, I present an in-depth analysis of KAVA, a prominent asset within the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform. This platform offers loans to its users without intermediaries and has thus become a notable entity within the cryptocurrency market. Currently, KAVA's price stands at 1.089. Technical Analysis On closer inspection of KAVA's current state, numerous technical indicators suggest that it might be an appropriate time to consider short positions. Here is a detailed dissection of the relevant technical factors: RSI & Stochastic Oscillators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 69, nearing the traditional overbought threshold of 70. In parallel, the stochastic oscillator is high at 92. These are both significant signals of potentially overbought conditions, frequently leading to a market correction. Bollinger Bands: The asset's current price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, placed at 1.116. This closeness often signifies overvaluation and potential reversion to the mean, providing a price correction signal. Volume Oscillator: The volume oscillator value is -4%, indicating a higher downward volume compared to the upward volume. This pattern can be perceived as a bearish sign in certain market conditions. MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) value currently stands at 0.057. While it's not distinctly bearish, it necessitates close monitoring for a potential bearish crossover. Fibonacci Levels: The Fibonacci retracement levels also merit attention. On the daily timeframe, the 0.5 level stands at 0.859 and the 1 level at 0.667. These levels could potentially act as support in the event of a price decline. Key Resistance Levels It's crucial to highlight KAVA's significant resistance levels. The asset has a local resistance level of 1.171 and a substantial resistance level of 1.347. These resistance points may act as a price ceiling and provide excellent opportunities for short positions. The convergence of the overbought indicators and these resistance levels present the potential for short positions with a favorable risk/reward ratio. Conclusion Considering these indicators, both the local resistance of 1.171 and the solid resistance of 1.347 seem to be probable regions for initiating short positions. However, it's important to note that trading requires meticulous planning and risk management. It is essential to conduct independent research and consider personal risk tolerance before entering any trades. I will continue monitoring KAVA and provide updates on significant changes in its market behavior. Until then, let's maintain a diligent watch on this asset and observe how the market scenario unfolds. Wishing you successful trading.
by ShawnMCR
31
Micron Pulls Back After Breaking OutSemiconductor stocks have been moving lately. Today’s chart focuses on memory-chip producer Micron Technology. The first pattern to consider is the level around $64.30. MU peaked near this price in November, January, March and April. A breakout followed in mid-May followed by a pullback on Monday. Will buyers step in near the previous high, looking for old resistance to become new support? Next, you have the series of higher lows over the last three months. That kind of ascending triangle may reflect increasing demand for the stock. Third, MACD recently turned positive -- a potential sign of improving short-term momentum. Finally, MU jumped on March 29 as analysts said its long-term demand cycle had bottomed. (The surge came despite weak earnings and revenue.) This month’s rallies in MU and the broader chip space may confirm the industry is back on the upswing. If that’s true, it could give investors another reason to target the $64.30 zone. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:MU
by TradeStation
8
OKXIDEAS contest resultsWe are thrilled to announce that the OKXIDEAS contest has come to a successful conclusion. We would like to extend our gratitude to every one of you for your enthusiastic participation and for sharing your innovative ideas with us! The quantity, quality, and diversity of ideas presented truly exceeded our expectations - this made the selection process both challenging and exciting. After careful evaluation and consideration from our curatorship team, we are pleased to reveal the winners of the OKXIDEAS contest: Without further ado, here is the list of winners: 1st Place: @TheSignalyst 2nd Place: @Kriptotiks 3rd Place: @basically_always 4th Place: @jhnee 5th Place: @pejman_zwin 6th Place: @Master_Chartistlab 7th Place: @FxTraderProAsistan 8th Place: @FX_Professor 9th Place: @leandrosander_ 10th Place: @Trader1SH Congratulations to all of our winners, including @SPY_Master, who despite hailing from an ineligible region of the world, added significant value to our contest. We are greatly appreciative of everyone's efforts and look forward to hosting future competitions!
by OKX
48
NVDA: Short of the Century (Update)We reached the much anticipated .786 fibonacci retracementlevel @ ~$296 today. I know general consensus says that we should at least see the round number of $300 and possibly an overshoot to~$311. Although it is definitely possible, I do not see any significant opportunity outside of short positioning. Whether it keeps rolling or not,I continue to build a Put Contract Short Position. As soon as the market shows any significant signs of weakness to the downside, implied volatility will shoot through the roof and 2024 Put Contracts will be exponentially more expensive. So in light of my confidence in the ultimate downfall of NVDAs stock price I have been short positioning and will continue to until momentum shifts to the downside and start looking to offload those contracts. Options in general and especially Put buying has dropped off a cliff, relative to how many contracts were being bought a month ago. This is another good sign, pointing to NVDA reaching its local high and the shift in trend nearly cemented in. Debt ceiling issues will most likely be the catalyst in the short term but I will be looking out for trouble with China that becomes the real nail in the coffin.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Goontata84
411
NVDA Price Action Analysis: Riding the Bullish Wave Towards $337In this article, I will dive into the price action analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) and explore its recent movements, highlighting key milestones, and providing insights into potential future developments. NVDA has been a subject of considerable interest among traders and investors due to its impressive performance and the formation of significant patterns. I will discuss the journey from the breakdown below $200, the subsequent consolidation, and the current bullish breakout. Additionally, I will examine the Elliott Wave perspective, suggesting the possibility of a larger Wave 3 and the potential for a consolidation phase before a potential new high. The Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern Back in April 2022, NVDA experienced a breakdown below the $200 level, initiating the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is considered a bullish reversal formation, indicating a potential trend reversal. Traders keenly observed the subsequent consolidation phase, lasting until January 2023, when a breakout above the $180 level occurred. Overcoming Contrary Opinions During my analysis, I encountered contrasting views from commenters who disagreed with the projected technical analysis. However, with two target levels set at $270 and $337, it is important to note that NVDA has already surpassed the initial target of $270. The current price sits around $297, indicating a continued upward trend and the potential to reach the bullish breakout target of $337. Consolidation at $270 After surpassing the $270 target, NVDA experienced a consolidation phase lasting approximately one month. This period was characterized by a battle between bullish and bearish forces, as they contested for control of the price direction. Such consolidations are common and often provide traders with valuable insights into future price movements. Elliott Wave Perspective From an Elliott Wave perspective, the ongoing price action in NVDA suggests that the stock is in a larger Wave 3. Elliott Wave theory posits that markets move in repeating patterns, and Wave 3 is typically the most powerful and extended wave in an uptrend. In this view, the target for Wave 3 aligns with the projected price of $337. Traders should anticipate a potential larger consolidation phase upon reaching this target, which could serve as a launching pad for a potential move to a new high. NVDA's price action has been captivating , capturing the attention of day traders and investors alike. The inverted head and shoulders pattern, the subsequent breakout , and the ongoing bullish momentum indicate promising prospects for the stock. While facing initial skepticism, the stock has already surpassed the first target of $270 and shows no signs of slowing down as it approaches the bullish breakout target of $337. Traders following the Elliott Wave perspective should be prepared for a potential consolidation phase upon reaching $337, which could set the stage for further gains. As always, it is essential to monitor the price action closely, considering both technical and fundamental factors, to make informed trading decisions.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bitdoctor
36
GOLD → Downward triangle and retest of the 2000 areaGold on the background of the uptrend and counter-trend pullback forms a downtrend triangle, which may be the first signal to the possible beginning of the correction. The price is once again testing the uptrend support. In the same place the support of the pattern "Downward Triangle" passes. A breakout of the support zone will form an increase in volume and volatility. In breaking through the support, the price can go to 2000, 1995 and then to 1976. On the daily chart, the price is forming a consolidation near the support, which might be broken soon. The moving averages on the 1-hour timeframe act as resistance. Strong support: Triangle support 2001-2002 Strong resistance: 2009, 2015, 2020, and triangle resistance I expect price may continue to test support for a breakout, with price heading towards 1976 if successful. If the bulls can hold the support area, then price will try to break triangle resistance and strengthen to 2032 and 2048 Regards to R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
103
Home Depot "Plunges" to SupportAll media invokes sensationalism to get clicks and views to see their ads. Some really play into the doomer mindset of their readers/viewers by selecting stories that amplify the theme of the world/economy/dollar ending and that the next crash is right upon us! I've been reading these headlines every day for over a decade now and it's just the way modern journalism works. As a trader I aspire to cut through the noise and negative bias (and sometimes the positive bias) and ask the more objective question: "what does the price action suggest?" Home Depot NYSE:HD had earnings today and while the news was negative the overall long term trend (on the Weekly timeframe) has not changed. The key low of COVID and All Time High trend has defined most stocks for the last two years and may continue to define them for up to a decade. This past trend sets up a 50% Retracement level around 280.62 which Home Depot stock price has stubbornly held with an auction zone for a year of price action by now. Digging down through the lower timeframes the price action sets up a potential low-risk post-earning trade. The price action of the open poked below the near term low but failed to follow lower. What I would look for is price to hold today's opening action and NOT break the opening low. That sets up a stop for a reversal of this oversold condition while the broader price action on the Weekly is at a major Support.
NYSE:HDLong
by norok
15
Navigating The American Debt Ceiling DramaSome people create their own storms. And then get upset when it starts to rain. US Debt Ceiling drama is akin to a soap opera that never ends. Debt ceiling issue is not new. Why bother now? Political polarisation in the US has got to unprecedented levels. The showmanship could tip over into a political nightmare. It could send economic shockwaves with impact deeply felt both within US and well beyond its shores. Many politicians seemingly are so pulled away from reality that their fantasies aren’t working. Wishing away a problem out of its existence is not a solution. The Debt Ceiling is here. US defaulting on its debt is highly unlikely. Scarily though, the probability of that occurrence is non-zero. This paper looks at recent financial history surrounding prior debt ceiling episodes. Crucially, it delves into investor behaviour and their corresponding investment decisions across various asset classes. When uncertainty looms large, straddles and spreads arguably deliver optimal hedging and investment outcomes. A SHORT HISTORY OF DEBT CEILING. WHAT IS IT? HAS IT BEEN BREACHED BEFORE? The US debt ceiling is a maximum cap set by the Congress on the debt level that can be issued by the US Treasury to fund US Government spending. The ceiling was first introduced in 1917 to give US Treasury more flexibility to borrow money to fund first world war. When the US government spends more money than it brings in through taxes and revenues, the US Treasury issues bonds to make up the deficit. The net treasury bond issuance is the US national debt. Last year, the US Government spent USD 6.27 trillion while only collecting USD 4.9 trillion in revenue. This resulted in a deficit of “only” USD 1.38 trillion which had to be financed through US treasury bond issuance. This deficit was not an exception. In fact, that’s the norm. The US Government can afford to and has been a profligate borrower. It has run a deficit each year since 2001. In fact, it has had budget surplus ONLY five (5) times in the last fifty (50) years. If that wasn’t enough, the deficit ballooned drastically from under USD 1 trillion in 2019 to more than USD 3.1 trillion in 2020 and USD 2.7 trillion in 2021 thanks to massive pandemic stimulus programs and tax deferrals. This pushed the total US national debt to a staggering USD 31.46 trillion, higher than the debt ceiling of USD 31.4 trillion. The limit was breached! So, what happened when the ceiling was broken? Not that much actually. When the ceiling is broken into, the US Congress must pass legislation to raise or suspend the ceiling. Congress has raised the ceiling not once but 78 times since 1970. The decision is usually cross-partisan as the ceiling has been raised under both Republicans and Democrats. It was last raised in 2021 by USD 2.5 trillion to its current level. Where consensus over raising the ceiling cannot be reached, Congress can also choose to suspend the ceiling as a temporary measure. This was last done from 2019 to 2021. Since January, the Treasury has had to rely on the Treasury General Account and extraordinary measures to keep the country functioning. Cash balance at the Treasury remains precariously low. Its operating balance stood close to nearly USD 1 trillion last April but now hovers around USD 200 billion. Such reckless borrowing! Yet US continues to remain profligate. How? Global investors have confidence in the US Government's ability to service its debt. Despite the increasing debt, the US Government continues to pay investors interest on its bonds without a miss. Strong economic growth and its role as a global economic powerhouse assuages investor concerns over a potential default. Additionally, where Treasury does not have adequate operating cash flow, it leans on a credit line from the Federal Reserve (“Fed”). The dollar’s strength and reserve status contribute to the US Government’s creditworthiness and vice-versa. The Fed is also the largest holder of US government debt. It holds USD 6.1 trillion as of September 2022 (20% of the overall debt). The share of government debt held by the Fed surged to current levels from just above 10% during the pandemic due to massive purchases of treasury bills by the Fed as an emergency stimulus measure. GROWING US DEBT IS BECOMING A SOURCE OF CONCERN US debt has ballooned during the pandemic. It is deeply concerning for multiple reasons. Key among them is the risk of default. Although debt has increased significantly, GDP growth during this period has been tepid due to pandemic restrictions stifling economic activity. As such the ratio of national debt to GDP, a measure of the US’s ability to pay back its loan has also skyrocketed. This increases the risk that the US Government may fail to service its debt. A US Government default would lead to surging yields on treasury bonds and crashing stock prices. It would also call into question its creditworthiness limiting future borrowing potential. A default will also have far-reaching economic consequences threatening dollar hegemony which is already being challenged on multiple fronts. Another concern is the rising cost of servicing the debt. Servicing the debt is the single largest government expense. Interest payments on debt this year are expected to reach USD 357.1 billion or 6.8% of all government expenditure. Additionally, with the Fed having raised interest rates with no stated intention of pivoting in 2023, the interest rate on US public debt, which is currently at historical lows, will also rise. DEBT CEILING BREACH AGAIN. SO WHAT? LOOKING BACK IN TIME FOR ANSWERS. There has been more than one occasion when political disagreements resulted in Congress delaying the raising of the debt limit. In 2011, political disagreements pushed the government to the brink of default. The ceiling was raised just two (2) days before the estimated default deadline (the “X-date”). Despite the raise, S&P lowered its credit rating for the United States from AAA to AA+ reflecting the effects that political disagreements were having on the country’s creditworthiness. This played out again in 2013 due to same political disagreements. Thankfully, for investors, the effects of the 2013 crisis on financial markets were not as severe. Flash back. Equity markets initially dropped after the debt ceiling was reached and investors worried that the disagreements would not be resolved in time. In July 2011, markets started to recover as both parties started to work on deficit reduction proposals. Then on July 25th, just eight (8) days before the borrowing authority of the US would be exhausted, Credit Default Swaps on US debt spiked and the CDS curve inverted as participants feared that a deal would not be reached in time. This led equities sharply lower. On August 2nd, a bill raising the ceiling was rushed through both the House and the Senate. Following this S&P lowered US credit rating from AAA to AA+ citing uncontrolled debt growth. Equity prices continued to drop even after the passage of the bill. Commodities showed similar price behaviour heading into the passage of the bill. However, unlike stocks, gold and silver prices rallied after August 2nd. The USD weakened against other currencies before the passing of the bill but recovered after August 2nd. Treasury yields trended lower but spiked during key events during this period. Short-term treasury yields remained highly volatile. Following crisis resolution, yields plunged sharply. US DEBT CEILING CRISIS AGAIN. WHAT NOW IN 2023? The US reached its debt ceiling again in January 2023 and yet another debt crisis. 2013 is repeating itself again as lawmakers disagree over whether to raise the ceiling further or bring the budget under control. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a non-partisan organization, has estimated that the US could be at a risk of default as early as June 1st. Republicans disagree with the Biden administration. They seek budget cuts to reduce annual deficits while Democrats want the ceiling to be raised without any conditions tied to it. This crisis is exacerbated by rising political polarisation in the US. Not just metamorphically, the Republicans and Democrats are at each other’s throat. A study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that no established democracy in the recent past has been as polarised as the US is today. This raises the risk that Congress gets into a stalemate. Moreover, the house is only in session for 12 days in May. After the law is passed in Congress it must also pass through the Senate and the President. The availability of all three overlap on just seven (7) days, the last of which is the 17th of May. This means that lawmakers have just 3 days (from May 12th) to reconcile their differences before the US is put at risk of default. POSITIONING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS IN DEBT CRISIS WITH X-DATE IN SIGHT What’s X-date? It refers to the date on which the US Government would have exhausted all its options except debt default. The X-date could arrive as early as June 1st. There is a small chance that it could arrive in late July or early August. The US Government collects tax receipts in mid-June. If the US Treasury can stretch until then it will have enough cash to last another six weeks before knocking against the debt ceiling again. The current crisis has been brewing. Equity markets remain sanguine. But near-term treasury yields have started panicking. Short term yields have spiked. The difference in yield on Treasury Bills that mature before the likely X-date (23/May) & after it (13/June) has shot up. Muted equity markets create compelling opportunity for short sellers. In the same vein, it also presents buying opportunities when debt ceiling is eventually lifted. When up or down is near impossible to predict, an astutely crafted straddle or time spread can save the day. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
TVC:US01MY
by mintdotfinance
27
The case for a Weaker Yuan The most recent Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50, landing back in contraction territory after two prints above the 50-mark. As the world's top exporter, China is acutely sensitive to fluctuations in both exports and manufacturing numbers. Historically, we've seen periods of Yuan devaluation during times of contracting Manufacturing PMI and exports as China works to invigorate export demand. With the latest PMI number trending lower, it's worth pondering whether this signals a movement toward a weaker Yuan. A more detailed examination of Chinese economic data presents some reasons for concern. Chinese export-related economic data has collectively taken a downward turn. This could stimulate further Yuan weakening as the government strives to reinvigorate exports. Moreover, as the world's second-largest oil importer, lower oil prices gives China additional leeway in weakening its currency, as the ripple effects of higher oil prices are tempered. From a technical perspective, the CNH is teetering on the edge of the 200-day moving average, and prices have once more nudged above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, in a shorter timeframe, we notice price action breaking out of the ascending triangle and nearing the top of the wedge pattern. With the USD breaking to the upside coupled with the potential for a weakening Yuan, we think this makes the case for a higher USDCNH. Taking a risk-managed long at the current level of 6.9520, a prudent stop 6.8930 and take profit level at 7.0900. A Standard Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Futures represents 100,000 USD. Prices are quoted in RMB per USD, each 0.0001 per USD increment equal to 10 CNH. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
8
Tesla (TSLA): Potential short swing tradeTesla's share price has made a mediocre attempt to rise above $180, yet Friday's bearish engulfing / outside day seems to have different plans. The fact the candle occurred on high volume following a bearish RSI divergence suggests it may have reached (or is close to) a swing high. Furthermore, the reversal candle has formed around the monthly pivot, 61.8% Fibonacci ratio and 50-day EMA and just beneath the 100-day EMA. - Bears could fade into moves within Friday's rally to anticipate a break of last week's low - Alternatively, wait for a break of last week's low to assume bearish continuation - The lows just above 150 make a viable target for bears, with the potential for it to close the gap or test the monthly S1 pivot
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by CityIndex
7
Another Tight Range on the S&P 500The S&P 500 is forming another tight range. Will it break out or break down? Today’s chart of the E-mini futures considers patterns that could argue either way. We’ll begin with some potentially bearish points. First is the May 1 high, slightly above the April 18 peak. Prices failed to clear this resistance and quickly fell back into the range. That’s a potentially bearish false breakout. Second, two lower studies could suggest the upside is fading. The Advance / Decline Line has been inching lower for almost a month. MACD has also been negative since the last week of April. (MACD could be useful because it turned lower before the drops of late December and late February.) However, bulls might see things differently. They could view the 4068 zone as important support because it was the monthly low in April that’s holding again in May. It’s also near the spot where ES1! peaked on March 22, so old resistance might have become new support. (This level roughly matches 4050 on the cash index.) Next, the price area reflects approximately a 38.2 percent retracement of the move between March 13 and May 1. Finding new support so high, above the 50 percent retracement line, could suggest buyers outnumber sellers. Finally, the Nasdaq-100 has been hitting new nine-month highs. Some investors may complain about leadership being concentrated in a small set of megacap growth stocks. However, these companies led the broader market lower in late 2021. If they’re in the driver’s seat again, it could suggest further gains are coming for ES1!. In the near-term, attention is focused the debt ceiling. Then there’s a big cluster of events June 13-14 (CPI and a Federal Reserve meeting.) It could be interesting to see how the price action plays out, given the technicals cited above and the approaching catalysts. Trading futures just got more accessible after TradeStation slashed commissions! Click our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradeStation
10
Quick post: Simple and Powerful Adam and Eve Pattern on DXYThe US Dollar index is one of the most important indexes one can watch to position themselves for long term moves in a wide range of markets. There is its role in currency markets, US equities, bond, anti-fiats like precious metals and cryptocurrencies. For a basic primer: www.investopedia.com As a quick post this is simply looking at the basics of chart formations and not going deeper. No indicators used. The Adam and eve reversal pattern can be found as a type of double top or double bottom. Here it is a double bottom. The targeting for this pattern is roughly the 0.786 fib level which falls within the previous high bull trap. I do not see much further upside. Any over-performance would probably be a double top around 115 Long Term the Dollar has a lot of volatility to go through. Way more than people expect. The fact remains that the dollar index is in a decades long falling wedge with many upside targets yet to be reached. I discovered this wedge independently and I don't know of anyone who shared the draw publicly before me. The allegations of dollar death are going to appear really accurate when the dollar is back around 70 before going up above 140. But that is in decades to come. My trades: I have taken of my margin long positions in crypto for a while with the exception of one where I was stopped out. I have margin short Matic performing quite well. I am suffering a painful loss of USD value from my Optimism position and having the Matic short perform is helping me hold that position. Future trades When this DXY move goes to target it will be time to look for crypto entries. A little physical silver due to how it strengthens my hands. It should be on discount after a wee bit of a dollar pump.
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
60