chartwatchers

chartwatchers Updated 

As I mentioned earlier when Gold prints an intermediate top and breaking below the 10 SMA on weekly and 10 SMA on daily charts almost always backtesting it later. Price tried to break above the 10 SMA on the daily chart but couldn't hold: Today the 10 SMA on the weekly chart was backtested too: Last week's Friday drop was too much for an immediate follow...

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Gold almost completed my first target price at 2.277$ last week Friday. Before we could see another drop there should be a pullback first as the Friday decline was nearly 4%. What are the possible targets for this pullback? 1. Fibonacci 23,6% at 2.310$ and the breakdown level at 2314$. (RED rectangles) 2. Fibonacci 38,2% at 2.325$ . (ORANGE) 3. Fibonacci 50% at...

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05.03.2024 - Gold printed a very mild DCL on day 57. Today is day 20 in the new daily cycle . Though this daily cycle run to new all time highs price was not able to stay above 2433$... It seems we are forming a double top and the double top's neckline is pulling down the price like the magnet at the prevoius DCL ( 2277$) After the 2 -day-drop this week we...

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If gold is in a decline mode silver is dropping too... Silver started to print its double top a bit later than gold but it's heading to the neckline at 30.058$. We might backtest the breakout again at 26$ in a few weeks. And also notice on the XAUXAG chart silver printed a daily swing yesterday : It might want to backtest the triangle~s lower trendline. If...

chartwatchers Updated 

Friday gold was close to print a key reversal on the daily chart. It was day 41 in the current daily cycle. Day 41 is quite late in gold's daily cycle as a normal cycle 41-46 days long. We can easily find daily cycles on the gold chart where gold printed a DCL around day 40-44... A usual daily cycle decline lasts for 5-7 days so if I'm right gold will print its...

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Last Friday gold printed a daily cycle top and very possible this was the intermediate cycle top too. After the daily reversal the next day price usually tags the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This time it 's at 2371,9. The attack against Israel helped gold to bounce on the hourly chart to 2371 tonight. I still think later tomorrow the decline continues and we can...

chartwatchers Updated 

After a 81 bar long daily cycle we printed the DCL on the 02.28. The candle of the DCL was a key reversal also: We saw how well worked the key reversal during the daily cycle decline a few days ago. I expect the same now, just the other direction: a rally is coming for 20-25 days before we start the move down into the next daily cycle low. Price is above...

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I will try a long trade with a stop below today's low. We are on day 9 in this daily cycle decline. The hourly is showing signs of a bottoming process. Every breakdown of the previous low is bought back without producing a waterfall decline. Lot of gold guru is talking about a longer decline from here, but I don't see that happening. I will post a daily idea...

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I don't have a working cycle count in NatGas right now as I haven't traded it since it topped earlier last year. This is a falling knife. 2 days ago we lost 3.300. That was the 2021.02.18 top and the Fibonacci 78,6% retracement level. As we broke below that level I see nothing until 2.442 and 2.267. If anyone wants to long this needs to wait at least a...

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After we tried to play the bounce , now I'm back to the original idea. The daily cycle decline can but almost never lasts for only 2 days. After the 2 red candles what was printed last Thursday and Friday the decline slowed down but not finished yet. The next target where the daily cycle low can be printed is at the 38,2% FIB retracement (1829$) or at 1850$...

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I don't think the DCL is printed yet, but we are finding support at 1860-61. I see a good opportunity here for a fake rally before the final daily bottom is printed at 1829$. We will see what the daily close will look like, but right now the hourly is showing a double bottom what is a beloved pattern of many traders who are waiting for new highs in gold. I will...

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In the middle of October I suggested to short the dollar in this post: Unfortunatley didn't have time for an idea to post. A few days ago I closed the short positions , and now I think it's very possible the dollar will print a rally in the following days. The FED's rate hiking cycle pushed the dollar above 114 in the summer, but in October the market started...

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One vehicle how you can short or long the dollar is the USDHUF. The USDHUF mirrors the DXY moves pretty well. Though watching the FIB retracement we are at no man's land : the Fibonacci 61,8% is still 10 HUF away: we have important levels at 354.738, 352.993, and 351.248. I don't think price will break these levels at the first try. If we can bounce from...

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Yesterday we printed a key reversal with a daily minimum close. You might don't want to short this, but one thing is sure : on day 64 with a key reversal you don't want to be long.... The trendline is broken , and we just closed below the 10 EMA: What's next? The 5 and 6 day RSi will get oversold. It's not a big news because we are almost...

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After testing the 2021.06.01 pivot at 1916 gold printed daily swing high today. The daily cycle peaked on day 50. More than enough , it was an extremely long daily cycle. No question we are moving into the daily cycle low where I want to be long again to test the all time highs. What to expect during this decline? First of all I want to see the 4...

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Eurusd is froming a key reversal today. We have to wait for the daily close, and even after the daily close this can be easily reversed by tomorrow, it's possible we will be having the pullback to the 200 SMA in the following days. If this plays out the minimum where price drops is the 50 EMA at 1.060 . This price level is also the 23,6% FIB retracement. If...

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I would like to share what I see regarding Bitcoin. I'm not trading it right now but my system is is still showing a sharp decline below 10.000 and below 5.000 in the following weeks. Last week we finished printing a symmetric triangle what broke down yesterday. The symmetric triangle is a continuation pattern , I highlighted the target price what is not funny at...

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A crash is coming in the stock market in the following days: probably this week or maybe next week. The last intermediate cycle lasted for 80 bars and ended on the 16.06.2022. The new intermediate cycle rallied to the 200 SMA then dropped into the DCL on the 9th Sept. The new daily cycle is only on day 14 - we are in this daily cycle - and it is close to the...