Wynnsa

Wynnsa

Based on previous analysis, buy the red. This is calculated using the bottom of previous cycles from time start / end of cycles. This is the "best case" buy opportunity for BTC not accounting for wider macroeconomic factors which are in play. DCA down, but if we hit red have cash waiting. BTC “If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try...

Wynnsa

In my previous post I explained that the price is often the easy part to work out in markets, its the when that gets people. If when didn't matter, we would say that price is expected to reach a high of x with relative confidence. Assuming you are long term bullish on Bitcoin you could say the price of Bitcoin will eventually exceed $100k for example. It could...

Wynnsa

Thought it time to record my thoughts on the direction of the market, as usual using Bitcoin as the marker. Inherently this could be considered a poor marker to use since depending on your alt holding they may diverge away from BTC price action, but in general I think most consider it a useful point of reference. Currently we are in a down trend, and whilst it...

Wynnsa

Looking at previous two cases alts tend to crash later. Alts tend to follow BTC then just parabola, take dominance and rally when BTC starts to level off. It makes sense - retail is more involved with alts so more likely to react later. Also for smart money they would want to rotate out of BTC to take profit and look to put some of that profit into the alt market....

Wynnsa

Disclaimer; this is a long read Another Disclaimer; this is not one for the traders on a micro-level Last Disclaimer; the chart here is for proof of concept and data, I don’t expect many will “get” the chart outright Thought I would take a different view on BTC since we are in a slow period, by looking more closely at not what the price is, but where in time...

Wynnsa Updated 

Longer term analysis of current market cycle position. Some of the data as to why certain points are used can be found in ideas (see related idea below for more info). Bulls would probably feel short changed with the current state of the bitcoin "top" - should this current position be the top. I personally am optimistic of price action however feel Bulls should...

Wynnsa Updated 

I simply dont believe that is the case. Reasons against and reasons for a potential bear market territory are valid - i.e. overextended alt market and fear index creeping in to sentiment early. I have not compared previous sentiment indicators with price action... Believe in the tech, and believe in your investment. Remember Hodlers have come out on top in...

Wynnsa Updated 

Following from previous discussion this cycle analysis takes a closer look at the relationship of previous cycles to calculate possible trajectories for future PA. It is, at the end of the day, unknown where the value of BTC will end up, and this PA is definitely bullish in sentiment. However I am long term hodler and believer in Bitcoins overall success, so bias...

Wynnsa

BTC / Bitcoin Case for Bearish Downturn and End of Cycle Were currently in a ranging area of support for Bitcoin, and have had a few days of upward momentum. All in all things are looking relatively bullish, so I thought I would take the time to throw shade on all of that and post the first bearish chart. This is a challenge for me - I am naturally bullish on...

Wynnsa

I said I would stop posting charts with Arrows since they always end up making you look bad. TA to me is not about exact pricing, but general investing direction over the LONG TERM. Despite this arrows do show thought process so why not. This chart is based off previous analysis showing possible top prices for BTC based on previous market cycle percentages and...

Wynnsa

Fib Levels for Bulls to watch on the way back to ATH. Ultimately the market will be expecting a "return to normal" / dead cat / bull trap and so this might be self fulfilling. Any meaningful increase in price has to be analysed against the potential downside risk as a result until we are in the clear. I would consider a meaningful move above $52k as a sign bullish...

Wynnsa

No need to hate, just saving an idea

Wynnsa Updated 

Very exciting day today as we step into phase 4 of the market cycle IMO. This is in relation to the previous market cycle and though this should be taken with a pinch of salt, it has played out well enough through the cycles to be my playbook for the final leg. Previous comments from me explain the disclaimers I am using to stay critical of this analysis. This...

Wynnsa

I have made a lot of comments about the long term bull case for bitcoin. Really that comes in the form of a number of different angles and analysis, which I might suggest a couple more ways of looking at things. This one goes on the assumption that the price follows historic price action, which it often doesnt. At these prices retail traders are put off, and...

Wynnsa Updated 

Some minor pull back for this week is possible, looking like anther short entry for me. We hit top of channel which is decision point one for BTC to make a short term reversal and find new support. I can see support at $42k which if it holds would give bulls an excellent point to push upwards. Still very bullish on BTC this year and holding on spot, but will...

Wynnsa Updated 

I'm struggling to see a bull case at the moment (although I know BTC can do it any time), but Im reshorting regularly with caution on small amounts and taking profit where I can, expecting a larger drop. Once BTC loses some height I can re-enter on spot longs.

Wynnsa

After profits from yesterdays short from divergence on Price action and RSI, a small Short on bounce is now in Play from 47750 down to medium resistance (white trend). TP set @ 45000 with SL set @ 47912. Expecting a bounce @ 46250 (orange trend) which could invalidate trade.

Wynnsa

Given up on any regular scale trades and sticking with cycles for now and holding assets. Lets see where the next one takes us!