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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USD/ZAR pre-SARB rate decision.The SARB will release their latest interest rate decision on Thursday and expectations are pointing to another 25bps hike which will push the repo rate to 7.50%. I haven’t posted an idea on the pair in quite a while but a whole lot has happened since my last idea. March has been a very turbulent month for the local unit, but the rand is holding up relatively well in the month of March given the recent fragilities in the US banking sector. As things stand the rand has depreciated just over 1% against the dollar this month. The rand however slid to a three year low of 18.71 earlier this month but it did manage to pull the pair to a monthly low of 18.01 on the back of a broad-based weaker dollar. Currently it seems as if the pair has completed an abc corrective pattern following the 5-wave impulse which saw the pair climb from the yearly low 16.70 to 18.71 earlier this year. In the beginning of the year, I predicted that the pair would hit the 2020 high of 19.36 in the 1H2023 (I tagged the idea in this post). I’m not prepared to stick my neck out just yet to confirm my previous idea haha however a break above the yearly high of 18.71 could confirm the move as it will signal another impulse move higher. A re-test of the pair’s 50-day MA rate currently at 17.90 is still on the cards given the down trend on the daily RSI and sell signal on the MACD. The 50-day MA coincides with the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 17.91 and we would need a convincing break below this level in order to invalidate the move north of 19.00. Currently the 23.6% Fibo rate of 18.22 and the neckline of the parallel channel is holding support for the pair. Fundamentally there is not much supporting the rand. Commodity prices had a woeful first quarter off the back of the 10%+ declines in brent crude oil. Credit markets (US 10year yields) have seen massive daily swings following the fragilities in the banking sector which is eroding risk-on investor sentiment. The only thing that will be fundamentally rand positive is some degree of stabilisation of the US debt market (US 10-year bond yields) and higher commodity prices. As long as the credit markets remain unstable the rand won't be able to gain from its carry trade advantage. In summary; critical supports = 17.90 and 17.68, major resistance = 18.60 and 18.71.
by Goose96
USDZARExotic currency pairs do possess a certain allure to experienced traders in terms of returns. The South African Rand (ZAR) has been battered lately due to macroeconomic data and political upheavals experienced lately. These geopolitical and economic risks are correctly priced into the market Using the smart money concepts, we are witnessing a return to a previous supply established in 2021 and an elimination of price inefficiency. The risks highlighted above only serve to drive the price back to the identified supply. Currently, we do not have a confirmed set up though market data indicates we are likely to witness a breakout in the coming weeks. On the Daily chart, we are waiting for a break of the daily structure at the 18 price handle. Once this is confirmed, we expect a retracement to the confluence of fresh supply and liquidity sitting at an 18.5 price handle. At that price, we will place our sell orders targeting the downside 17-16.5 price handle. Should the price fail to break lower after consolidation and instead breaks higher, this set up is declared invalid and we shall adjust accordingly.
Short
by morrisgitau
1
Dollar Strength next weekOPTION 1: DOLLAR STRENGTH A) It will break the short term Trend Line (white) to the downside and retest support (blue bottom) it is already showing signs of retesting that bottom line. B. This is in the zone of a 68.1 Fib retracement level (BUY) for a continued uptrend OPTION 2: Dollar Strength A) It might bounce back into the short term trend line (WHITE) (confirming support) with a continued uptrend retesting the current resistance nearest (blue) UPSIDE Option 3: Neutral/Dollar weakness it will retest the nearest support (blue) A) Chop around break to the downside for a continued downtrend
Long
by calebdean21
USD/ZAR - Tentative Hello with the Feds rate decision in play we see that the Rand is getting stronger. Going down to 4hr Support level. One of two things could happen here 1. The rand could reach up again to close the future value Gaps noted on the 1hr timeframe. This will suggest that the dollar will recover. We will have to monitor the movement in this zone. 2. We could see a sharper movement downwards breaking through the 4hr support zone. This will give us good momentum for sell positions and we will move into the 18.0000 zone. At this current moment my bias is more centered around bullish momentum as noted on the 4hr TF we had strong bearish momentum. Remember price must correctly deliver both sides before we reach for any liquidity Stay Safe
by KingDee57