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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USDZAR-RANGE 4-hourly chartCurrently we are under pressure and this may go further until somewhere 18.5150-18.5300. The overall pattern (daily chart is easier to see) is a large "W" shape, and we are supported trend line near 18.5100. The neckline of the W is somewhere 18.9350 estimated. For those playing a larger play, may consider looking at this pattern, either by early entry or on break-out. Strategy short-term is BUY near 18.5100- and place SL @ 18.4350. Profit @ 18.8575 or SELL near 18.8500-18.8800 and place SL above 18.9450. Profit order @ 18.5975 now. Medium-term play consider BUYING near 18.5100 and place SL @ 18.3875 and take profit at 19.6550.
by peterbokma
Heading into Ki DezembaThe rand has now given back almost half of its October gains following the ill received CPI figures and SARB interest rate decision. The rand slide roughly 2.5% last week which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a high of 18.96. Luckily the rand managed to keep the pair below the critical 50-day MA rate of 18.82, but a break above this rate could see the rand slide further towards 19.20 as we enter the month of ki Dezemba. It is difficult to gauge the rand’s moves but the rise in investor risk-on sentiment and eased liquidity conditions in fundamentally rand positive. The breakout of the downward channel and the break above the 200-day MA is however technically rand-negative.
by Goose96
What thoughts fam...m going long...EInflation is anticipated to start easing toward the midpoint of the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target range, which is where it prefers to anchor expectations. Against that outlook, economists are in consensus that the MPC will close off the year, leaving the benchmark rate unchanged for a third straight meeting while delivering a hawkish message. Most only anticipate rate cuts from the second quarter of next year. Supporting its decision to hold are fresh developments, including oil prices erasing their sharp rise from late August and the Federal Reserve appearing to be done with rate hikes. That bodes well for the rand, Tatonga Rusike, an economist at Bank of America, said in a note to clients.
Long
by admiretira
#USDZAR daily analysisUSDZAR saw a bearish reversal off the important 18.75 level which was strong support previously. Should we trade below friday's low at 18.61, i suspect we will see a re-test of 18.43. However if no follow through of the reversal occurs and price manages to gain traction above 18.75 i would then expect the 18.90 level to come into play where we find the 50dma and the downtrend resistance. My gut says back to 18.43 the more likely action given friday's candle structure
Short
by MarcoOlevano
2
Rand re-check The weaker than expected US CPI results sparked a prompt risk-on rally which sent the dollar and US bond yields tumbling. The rand caught a strong bid off the back of this boosted risk-on sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair all the way onto the blue support line at 18.13. The critical rate to keep an eye out for now is the black 61.8% Fibo retracement rate at 18.27. A failed break back above this level will allow the rand to pull the pair lower onto the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.94, which coincides with the long-term trend line. A break back above 18.27 will however allow the pair to inch back up towards the 200-day MA at 18.60. The fundamental factors behind the rand’s gains is purely due to a change in investor sentiment following the dovish Fed interest rate decision a few weeks ago and the narrative that inflation is peaking. As long as the market remains confident that the Fed will be able to pull off their “soft landing,” the more interest the rand will get from the carry trade. Other fundamental factors that could support the rand are quite thin particularly commodity prices that have remained range bound. Next week the SARB is expected to hold the repo rate at 8.25% and it’ll be interesting to see how the markets react once the waters across the Atlantic has settled. In terms of technical indicators, there is a degree of divergence on the RSI which could be an early signal of a move higher towards 18.50-18.60 before the rand is allowed to test the support rate at 17.94. The 50-day MA is also rolling over which can create a death cross if it crosses below the 200-day MA. This will be a bullish indicator for the rand since the last time the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day was in April 2022 and October 2020. For now, I’m sitting on the fence with this pair as I believe the risk-on rally may have been overdone following the US CPI print. I’m watching the DXY and the US 10-year yield to judge whether the rand’s rally can continue. A turn in the DXY and US yields will pin the rand back onto the ropes if we don’t see a significant rally in commodity prices.
by Goose96