XAGUSD - Silver will return to its upward trend?!Silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the trend line breaks and continues to decline, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance area will provide us with the path for silver to rise to the supply range.
The CIBC bank forecasts that silver prices will average around $35 per ounce in 2025, maintaining this level through 2026. By 2027, prices may slightly decline, averaging $34.50 per ounce.
Analysts at the bank expressed a bullish outlook on gold and silver markets, citing preparations by global markets to deal with the unpredictable policies of Trump’s administration. Last month, the president-elect threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada if they fail to tighten border controls. Additionally, he warned over the weekend that a 100% tariff might be applied to the BRICS bloc if they develop a settlement currency to bypass the U.S. dollar.
Analysts stated, “We anticipate that higher tariffs, the potential for trade wars, lower interest rates, and deregulation will all support rising gold and silver prices.” They added, “We believe that Trump’s tariff policies could provoke retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, thereby fueling inflationary pressures.”
Performance of Gold and Silver in 2024:
• Gold has surged by 29% this year. Following a 3.4% increase in October and a 5.2% gain in September, gold prices declined by 2.5% in November.
• Silver also rose by 29% in 2024. However, after advancing 4.3% in October and 7.9% in September, silver prices fell by 5.2% in November.
Throughout 2024, gold has repeatedly hit record highs, breaking price ceilings 39 times. However, silver has yet to return to its previous bull market peak of $50 per ounce. While this may be disappointing for silver enthusiasts, historical trends suggest that silver often lags behind gold during bullish cycles, only to later outpace gold explosively. This lag presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on potential gains in this market.
Meanwhile, the market’s primary focus remains on the release of today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and potential signals from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the central bank’s communication blackout, starting at midnight on Friday.
The most significant signal so far has come from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Board member. Waller expressed willingness to support a rate cut in December, but noted that this decision depends on forthcoming economic data. He specifically highlighted the NFP report as one of five key indicators under consideration but cautioned that these figures might be distorted by factors such as October’s strikes, post-storm economic activity, and the upcoming elections.
Currently, markets estimate a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December 18 meeting. This likelihood has dipped slightly from 75% earlier this week but has remained unchanged since Monday.
In addition to the NFP report, scheduled speeches from several Federal Reserve officials—including Bowman, Goolsbee, Harker, and Daly—are planned for Friday.
