#week07assignment #RafayLong position taken after observing price action on following
1. Bullish Gartley pattern
AUS200 trade ideas
ASX200 - Double Gartley'sOANDA:AU200AUD is setting up for another Gartley sell pattern.
This time we have the choice of 2 to choose from.
The first one comes in at 6730 the smaller pattern.
The second would see it going up into the 12th of July which would give it equal time and price.
These come on the back of the previous Gartley sell at 7297.
Its great when patterns line up one after the other.
I hope this helps. Enjoy the day.👍👍
THE WRITINGS ON THE WALLThe attached Chart is a revised and simplified version of my previous post that maps out the course of what I think will happen to the ASX S&P 200: XJO until this Bear Market hits an ultimate bottom.
To my horror, we just had what looks to be a fakeout to the downside of a very conspicuous Bear Pennant on Friday, followed by a suspiciously 'firm' green print today. I haven't seen the volumes yet as that info wont be available till tomorrow as an annoying feature of the piss poor, yet super expensive data provided by the ASX. Whilst the Market searches for a bottom I'd expect there will be confusing and contradictory signals amongst heightened volatility as par for the Course anyway.
Having liquidated most of my positions early last week I am aghast that there are now rumours circulating that the Fed might ease off the Inflation killing pedal (eeek!), hence the reason for this retarded Market's momentary optimism:
After a manipulated 9.1% CPI which vastly understates the true picture on the street and a PPI at 11% (!!!) , Jerome please, say it aint so..? As whatever you do the over paid geniuses at the RBA will dutifully follow your lead like demented puppy dogs with not a brain cell amongst them.
Give me Recession over Hyperinflation any day of the week and twice on Sundays! Where as the former is just a severe "go slow" for the entire Economy, the latter means complete and utter Societal collapse and the violence and political chaos that accompanies such a catastrophe. Pray that we don't get Hyperinflation. I have lived through 2 recessions in my lifetime, and granted I was much younger in the 70's and 90's, but I don't remember them as being particularly, extraordinarily difficult times..Hyperinflation? Well we all know how that ends.
Anyway, basing one's investment decisions on the insane monetary policies of the ultimate Socialist Control Device in the hope of Govt funny money riding to the rescue of one's portfolio is just slightly unreasonable and frankly CRAZY!...but hey, in #clownworld anything goes! An investor can only use their own logic to make Portfolio decisions otherwise investing really is no less gambling than a game of Roulette.
As such I'm putting the confusing, nascent breakout of the Bear Pennant down to Options expiry in the US on Friday causing a short squeeze, the swirling rumours of a dovish Fed epiphany and an over exuberant dip buying mentality that was conditioned into the Market post the Central Bank Puts that were executed after the COVID Crash to manipulate Markets to ATH's across the Planet over the last two years.
Sticking to my guns on the basis of rationality and logic (or maybe stubborn cognitive dissonance), the above Chart has one major change from the previous post and that is the inclusion of a major Bear Market Rally which I believe will come after the next leg down. I dont have any Puts in but I would hate to be wrong and it rallies from here having sold some positions last week at a decent loss.
Anyway, end of the day it doesn't really matter..."in the long run, we're all dead."
All the breasts and God Bless.
xxCM
ASX200 4H, could we see a new test of 6715?Happy Monday. Thanks for tuning in. Today we’re looking at the ASX200 as a few things point to buyer control. Since last Friday, we continue to watch the new fast uptrend remain in play. Buyers are also starting to break out of a wedge pattern, but we want to see if price can get back up to and break 6715.
A move up to and break of that level could start to tell us that a new short-term up trend is underway.
Thanks to all our subscribers and to the trading community for watching today’s update. We wish you good trading for the rest of the day.
AU200 sell off to continueSo far AU200 did not show divergence neither on 4h nor daily timeframe, therefore probability of continuation of the downtrend is pretty high. A pretty nice triangle (i.e. must be 4th sub-wave in a motive wave) has been building from mid June and looks complete by that moment.
Probably would be wise to wait for confirmation in a form of a break-out of a bottom of the triangle and step in around 6,555 area for may be 350 points profit.
I HATE TO SAY IT but...BETTER LATE THAN NEVER.Its been a long time since I last published which has been partially through being too busy and also some serious chronic illnesses with which I suffer but enough about Me.
I present you this on the night before what I expect is going to be a disastrous print for US Inflation and what will catalyse the next leg down in what amounts to a catastrophe for Equities. I could be wrong in which case this post will not age well at all, but I highly doubt it...lol!
I am 99% sure Market Fundamentals will bear out this move(pun intended) and prove the following TA Chart prediction more or less accurate.
My TA skills have vastly improved since last posting having learnt many advanced techniques and unique insights I believe are groundbreaking. As such I wont be explaining the Chart I will leave it up to the viewer to utilise their skill and insight to interpret what you can see. Comments and questions are welcome.
Now to the fun part and the part which requires the most balls and that is prediction:
The ASX is going to dump heavily another leg to approx. 5780 , consolidate for an indeterminate short time, maybe just under a month, until the next major drawdown which will see us hit an ultimate bottom of 4860 taking us all the way back to the Double top experienced in MARCH 2010 AND MARCH 2011 before the bear finally capitulates and we make a tedious, grinding movement that may last several years. We may indeed never recover the same to the levels prior to the GREAT RESET that Global Scum Inc have planned for 2030 saving some MAJOR MIRACLE !!! Fingers crossed eh..
There will be individual stocks that will do well in that intervening period so Equities will exclusively become a stock pickers game but the Indexes are kaput and will take years to reclaim the triple top to we hit in August 2021, January and April 2022 !
The US is headed back to support at the peak hit in Feb 2020 prior to the Pandemic, wiping out all the Fed funny money Market gains since then.
As such the Bear remains firmly in charge.
God Bless
xxCM
ASX 200Remains in consolidation range - with potential for bear flag to trigger. Demand turned to supply at the recent rebound to 6757.
My Short Mid Long EMA Band + 3 Bar Turn + Last 3 Close AverageThe Green Line is 10 EMA (sema) and Red Line is 20 EMA (mema), when sema above mema, overall trend is up and when sema below mema, overall trend is down. The gap of sema and mema times 2,3,4,5 times to project the band of support and resistance. It is like Bollinger Band that expand and shrink to tell the market is trending or moving sideway with direction.
The Top and Bottom triangles are from the comparsion of sema (10 ema), mema (20 ema) and lema (60 ema) relative location and the change from last bar. e.g. sema above/below mema and current gap compare with last bar gap is expanding/shrinking to determine the color and location of the triangle.
The close price is plot with color by comparing current close against last two close, The color also determine by the close vs last three close average. Green is up and Red is down, in between is yellow.
The close color and location compare with the band and the top and bottom triangles might help to tell the next movement.
ASX 200 drills lower thanks to commodity stocksAustralia’s main share index, the ASX 200, closed lower on Wednesday by 0.5%. This fall could have been a lot worse If not for technology and financial stocks mitigating the rout in other major Australian sectors.
Australian Securities Exchange’s Metals & Mining Index fell by a massive 5.6%. Heavyweights in the mining sectors, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) lead the way, falling by 7.4%, 6.6%, and 4.9%, respectively.
The ASX Energy Index also declined by 5.8% as crude oil prices plummeted 9% overnight Tuesday. Two of the most significant index drivers, Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC), slumped by 6.9% and 3.7%, respectively.
Virus and lockdown concerns appear to be the main factors suppressing commodity and energy stocks in Australia.
Domestic tech stocks did briefly push the ASX 200 into green territory intraday but were ultimately overcome by the strong headwinds of commodity stocks. The big tech winner of the day was Zip Co (ASX: ZIP), rising by a phenomenal 12.8%. Financials were also up by 0.9% as three of the "Big-four" seek to benefit from the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting its benchmark interest rate by another 50-basis points.
On the technical side, we can see on the daily chart that the ASX200 has been on a clear downtrend since April.
The index is currently moving in a tight range between 6700 and 6560.
A break above the resistance at 6700 could potentially retest the 6810-level area, creating a lower high of the downtrend before continuing to the downside. In consideration of the long-term scenario, a close below 6560, depending on market sentiments, could eventually drive the index down to the 6000 psychological support level.
The ASX 200 might struggle to maintain short-term upside movements. At least until China moves past its Covid concerns and lockdowns in the country no longer threatens to sideline its commercial operations and consumer demand.
AUS200 : DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Welcome back Traders,
Detailed analysis from INDEX_INSIDERS Team.
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Have a Good Day Trading !
Auzzie SELLRemember :
Your trades could prolonged.
Never could influence anything to the market.
I predict, you predict, they predict.
High paid analyst also predict.
Only thing I control is my bullets.
So, as always. Wishing you all the best!
From my land of sunshine. Malaysia
Au200We still expecting price to fall to the downside untill the lower ranger is manipulated then we can now start expecting price to rise with the aim to make a new higher high
AU200AUD!There is a bearish setup on the AUSSIE index, a sign of sells to form.
Low risk entry setup.
Trade with care use a stop loss.
AUS200 turning bullish?I see very bullish signs on AUS200 chart. My only problem is: was it just Friday afternoon rally or beginning of bear rally for next week?
Overall it seems like a strong bullish move. Earning season Q2 is coming soon - but will it be good enough for the market to continue move upside?
One is certain - there is still a lot of volatility in the markets. Trade carefully.
This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky- do your own analysis.
AUS200 forming a very neat H&S patternI am short on AUS200, H&S pattern spotted.
DOYR! This is not a financial advise.
Steve's Gun2Head - Selling Australia 200 (AUS200AUD)Trade Idea: Sell Australia 200
Reasoning: Bearish engulfing forming on daily chart, Stalled at resistance and turned lower under Ichimoku cloud on 4-hour chart.
Entry Level: 6494.5
Take Profit Level: 6254.5
Stop Loss: 6554.5
Risk/Reward: 4:1
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Aust 200 Hi
Hope all are fine.
I feel that this setup haven't complete it's journey.
May you progress in life in bless.
How to catch a falling knife?!!!We are oversold on the indices and will be looking for a bounce...dnt know if its just temporary relief or the bottom....I dnt care actually I will just carve up my piece of the meat:)... buy stop at 6475. . . . .(already pocketed gains from the short see attachment)
ASX Extremely Oversold Friday Afternoon Short SqueezeLooking for sellers to take profit and bargain hunters to squeeze this heavily sold Australia stock index into the close Friday or for Pop higher Morning if US stocks can Bounce.
In large sell offs Friday are profit taking days for sellers and this naturally causing some buying as they close short positions and in the fallout there are some stocks that are bought on dips that help the whole index rally.
Some good news would help but technically its sets up some excellent 3-1 and 5-1 risk rewards.
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AU200 - Looking for a short term reversalAU200 has reached .382 from th large swing.
It looks oversold and has also reached a 1.272 ext and a 2 from previous swings.
The target would be the .382 of the last swing lower.
We can look for some buying that may be the beginning of a short reversal. There's not enough buying just yet but we should keep an eye on this.....
I am a bearThe markets arent looking healthy, too much cash rate pressure on risk on markets. I can't see the next 12-18 months being fruitful. In saying this I think that there will be some great buy opportunities as long as I have enough capital to take some positions. The ASX looks set to come down to 6400-6200 points. That monthly candle dipping in there would give me some confidence in averaging back into the markets.
The green trendline when touched has seen a bearish market take hold for that 12-18 month period. So there may be opportunities for me to short this market to build capital and buy at the bottom. DYOR NFA
