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USOIL trade ideas

Oil Market Analysis - 17/12/2024The oil market is currently under pressure, with WTI down to $69.30 and Brent at $72.66. The main causes are: Pemex Production Recovery: Oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have returned to full capacity after improved weather conditions and the end of the hurricane season. This has increased available supply, partially offsetting the decline in Russian production. Decline in Russian Crude: Russian maritime oil exports have fallen by 11% since October due to maintenance at a key terminal. This has temporarily limited flows but has not significantly supported prices due to increased production from other sources like Pemex. Strengthening US Dollar: The Dollar Index (DXY) is around 107.00, gaining strength thanks to preliminary US PMI data for December, which signals the fastest economic growth in 33 months, driven by the services sector. A strong dollar negatively impacts oil, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. API Expectations: Crude inventory data from the API, scheduled for 21:30 GMT, could add volatility. Last week, there was a build of 0.499 million barrels. EU Sanctions: The EU has imposed sanctions on a Dutch trader involved in trading Russian oil above the price cap. The impact on volumes remains limited for now. Oil Technical Analysis Price Range: Oil is trading within a range between $67.00 (support) and $71.50 (upper resistance), with this band likely extending into January 2025. Resistance: The key resistance is located at $71.03 (100-day SMA) and $71.46, where prices encountered selling pressure last week. A breakout above $71.03 could push prices toward $75.27, but caution is needed for quick profit-taking as the year-end approaches. Support: The first solid support is at $67.12, a level that held prices in May-June 2023. A break below could see crude testing the 2024 yearly low at $64.75 and then $64.38, the 2023 low.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XTIUSD BEARISH OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone! How are you all? XtiUsd is an instrument to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation that we can capitalize on. So, I will be looking for a short continuation because of the following reasons: 1. The overall trend is bearish 2. The price has formed a continuation structure. 3. The price is approaching the value area. Game Plan: If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the High, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows. Entry : will look for a risk short entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDShort
by DTreasureMarketHub
1220 USOIL could not break top zone and turn down sideways againHello traders, This Thursday, Bitcoin's price experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from $102,000 to $97,000, a decline of $5,000 overnight. If we consider the high point from last weekend, the "tulip bloom," to the current "withered" state, it has fallen a total of $11,000 within a week. As a reminder, the second half of December is the period of tightest liquidity in the U.S. Everything is sellable! Therefore, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated, "We are not allowed to own Bitcoin," it can at least be confirmed that the rumors of the Fed holding Bitcoin have been dispelled, and the U.S. government's plans to accumulate Bitcoin are nearly impossible. This means that Bitcoin's price has finally returned to "normal," reflecting the trend of tightening liquidity. On Thursday, there are several important data points to pay attention to: 1. U.S. Dollar Index: 108.3 2. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.57% 3. 30-Year Treasury Yield: 4.74% These figures indicate that inflation expectations are rising. In particular, the 30-year Treasury yield is just about 10 basis points away from this year's high of 4.81%, and less than 40 basis points from the 2017 peak of 5.11%. Over the past two weeks, the 30-year Treasury yield has risen by 40 basis points. What is the current market consensus? The small red circle suggests shorting U.S. Treasuries and going long on the dollar. Today is Friday, a special day, as it marks the largest and most important options expiration date (OPEX) of 2024. Given the maximum OPEX, the impending government shutdown, and the tightening liquidity, the market may experience significant volatility!!!!!! Major attention is needed during this time, particularly during U.S. market hours (9:00 PM Beijing time to early Saturday morning). Wednesday's internal tips: On the 4-hour chart, crude oil has retraced below the EMA and the first resistance level, which diverges from the daily chart (where the candlestick is above the EMA) and the weekly chart (which has broken through the bottom resistance line), creating a selection issue for the market. **Idea One:** You can choose to enter new long positions after the 4-hour chart returns above the EMA. **Idea Two:** You can also consider a larger risk-reward ratio, entering the market opportunistically while the 4-hour chart is below the EMA, but the daily and weekly charts remain bullish. For existing long positions that have not hit the stop loss, it is recommended to hold on, based on the second idea mentioned above. TP1: 71.5 TP2: 72.0 TP3: 72.70 On Wednesday, during U.S. market hours, crude oil faced resistance at the first resistance level; On Thursday, during U.S. market hours, crude oil was blocked by the 4-hour EMA. At this point, the long crude oil trades hit their stop loss, and positions were closed, requiring a reevaluation of the trading strategy. Since Wednesday, under the pressure of the Fed's hawkish interest rate cuts, the demand outlook for crude oil has become increasingly bleak. Moreover, the market's further slowdown in easing expectations poses severe challenges for oil prices. Currently, the market generally believes that there will be a significant oversupply of global oil next year. In this market expectation, a rise in oil prices has become almost impossible. Market sentiment is low, and investors are generally cautious about the oil market. In the coming months, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure, making it difficult to regain their former glory. From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart, crude oil continues to struggle within a sideways range. On Friday, plan to establish new short positions. On the 1-hour chart, during European and American market hours, look for an opportunity to enter short positions on crude oil based on a 1-hour reversal signal. TP1: 67.50 TP2: 66.60 Mid-term short position take-profit level: 63.50. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
FX:USOILShort
by FUNTRADER-Vera
USOIL Will Go Down! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 71.095. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 70.000 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
WTI Light Crude Oil (18H) – Technical Analysis1️⃣ Bullish Triangle Pattern The chart forms a bullish triangle, with higher lows and a descending trendline. This indicates potential accumulation before an upward breakout. 2️⃣ Strong Support Level The $68-$69 support zone, established in September, has held firm, showing strong buying interest and rejecting further downside. 3️⃣ Broken Resistance Line The descending trendline has been broken, signaling a shift in momentum toward buyers. 4️⃣ Potential Uprise The breakout suggests upside potential toward: 🟢 Target 1- $71.23 🟢 Target 2-$73.00 🟢 Target 3-$77.54 Got questions? Let me know!
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Charts_M7M
Oil Ready for a Breakout? Oil fell 1.7% on Friday to close at 2 week lows of 67.21, as traders digested OPEC+’s decision from the day before, to postpone planned production increases from January to April 2025. While this OPEC+ move was widely seen as a positive attempt to address the current expected Oil surplus moving into next year, it seems the initial assessment was that it’s probably unlikely to go far enough to absorb extra production from the Americas and a slowdown in Chinese demand in the short term. So, could this negative sentiment continue to weigh on Oil? It’s a big week ahead, with the Bank of Canada (BoC), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) all expected to cut interest rates between 25bps (0.25%) and 50bps (0.5%), which may provide a boost to Oil prices from Friday’s closing levels. However, any potential impact remains uncertain and will depend on broader market conditions and other economic factors. Also, tomorrow China reports its trade data from November at 0300 GMT, which will provide an update on global and domestic demand. Then on Wednesday, top Chinese leaders will attend their annual Central Economic Work Conference, where they are expected to discuss the country’s growth target for 2025, alongside new stimulus measures to help hit that number. While this is a closed door event, any headlines outlining what was discussed could have a positive or negative impact on Oil prices later in the week. On the technical front the charts also look interesting. Since the 65.63 low in Oil on September 10th 2024, a period of choppy sideways activity has developed, as buyers and sellers have matched one another. This has been reflected by a converging triangle pattern, the extremes of which to start the week outline the 67.08 level as possible support, and the 69.46 level as potential resistance. The converging trendlines on the chart above, suggest that while buyers have appeared at a slightly higher level each time, the steeper slope of the downtrend connecting recent highs, indicates it takes less of a rally in price for sellers to appear once more. This selling pressure following Wednesday’s test of the downtrend on the chart above, saw last week end with fresh tests of the 67.08 trendline support, which is now the focus this week. How this level is defended on a daily closing basis, may offer clues to future directional moves. Of course, there is no indication when or if a breakout from this pattern will materialise and no guarantee that if one is seen, it will result in a sustained move. However, closes below 67.08 may see more extended weakness, but that is very much dependent on future price trends. If a confirmed break lower does materialise, the risks could be to test what might prove next support marked by the 65.63 September 12th low, possibly even towards 63.68, the May 2023 extreme. We stress breaks of support haven’t yet materialised, and while this holds, its possible strength can be seen once more to challenge the 69.46 downtrend resistance level. If activity is to turn towards possibilities of a more extended recovery, closes above this 69.46 level are required, which may in turn lead to tests of what could be resistance marked by the 71.57 November 25th session high. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 68.47 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 67.59 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 69.66 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil (WTI) on the Daily Timeframe 1DOn the daily chart, we can observe the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern , where the price has reached the bottom of this pattern, aligning with a key support level at $66.06. This level has historically acted as strong support, preventing further declines. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is near the oversold zone , indicating a potential decrease in selling pressure and a likely rebound in demand at this level. Considering these factors, I anticipate that the price will break out of the triangle to the upside and continue its bullish movement toward the next resistance level at $78.10 . However, as always, there is no certainty in the market, so proper risk management is essential. This analysis is intended for educational purposes and as an idea for further exploration. The final trading decisions are the responsibility of traders. Targets: Resistance ahead: $78.10 Stop-loss: A break and close below the $66.06 support level What are your thoughts on this analysis?
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by bir368
3
USOIL CLEAR TRIAGLEThe outlook for USOIL is extremely bullish as it is potentially completing the Elliott Wave B as a contracting triangle. This pattern often signals a powerful continuation toward the primary trend once Wave C begins. The Ending Triangle structure indicates that the market has been consolidating in a compressed, corrective pattern, and we are likely nearing the final stages of this consolidation. As Wave B nears its end, it sets the stage for a strong breakout to the upside. Given that oil experienced substantial upward momentum nearly 2 years ago, the market is positioned for a significant surge once Wave C unfolds. The key to this bullish outlook lies in the fact that Ending Triangles often lead to sharp moves in the direction of the dominant trend, which in this case is upward for USOIL. Once Wave C begins, it could propel prices toward new highs, potentially breaking through key resistance levels and establishing a fresh bullish trend. Moreover, the wave structure suggests a well-organized market, with, I believe institutions building large positions in the energy sectors for a larger move. The completion of Wave B indicates the final corrective phase before an explosive rally, providing an excellent opportunity for traders to position themselves for a breakout. The market is poised for a major upward thrust, and the overall sentiment is aligned with a potential rise in oil prices.
TVC:USOILLong
by FreedomBuilder
USOIL/ Decline inside the Regression ChannelTechnical Analysis The price action suggests a potential bullish trend, particularly if it can break out of the descending channel and surpass the resistance level of 70.49, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close above this level. Such a breakout would indicate strong buying momentum, paving the way for an upward movement toward 71.78, with further potential to reach 72.74 as the next resistance level. Conversely, the bearish trend will remain dominant as long as the price continues trading within the descending channel and stays below 70.49. Should the price breach the support level at 68.53, this would reinforce the selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a further decline toward the 67.03 level, which serves as a key lower support zone. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 70.49 Resistance Levels: 70.49, 71.78, 72.74 Support Levels: 68.53, 67.03, 65.85 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
"USOILSPOT / WTI CRUDE OIL" Energies Market Bullish Heist PlanHello! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist "USOILSPOT / WTI CRUDE OIL" Energies Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback. Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 1H timeframe Target 🎯 : 70.50 Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by Thief_Trader
CL - Crude Oil confirmation and unwritten potentialHi guys, we are following up with probably one of our favourite assets to participate in. You guessed it right it's CL. Currently the Crude Oil is sitting in a very specific range , which has been traded since late August , until the end of October where we saw a big spike and got out of boundaries due to the escalation in Iran and Israel, of which after the cooling off we got back into the range of 73.00 as a strong resistance line , and 67.00 as a strong support. This range has made a lot of traders stay away from CL, but I do believe that there is potential to be caught. Current analysis and entry : Entry today at a level of 68.90 , with two targets of take profit : Target 1: 71.52 Target 2: 72.92 Now this is the bold move if you don't want to miss out on the current opportunity and your Risk Tolerance is on the higher end. If you want to be more protective and your Risk Tolerance is on the lower side, you can get a Pending Order at the level of 66.61 , and then enter 3 follow up targets Target 1: 68.50 Target 2: 71.05 Target 3: 72.45 P.S. My current opinion is to go with a current entry because the missing out of opportunity is too high ,hence we are seeing more tensions in Israel&Gaza conflict, additionally the tightening of the situation in Ukraine&Russia adds more Fundamental Value, towards a swing on an upside of the Crude Oil. Do let me know in the comments below or in my community what is your thought process and opinion about our favourite Black Gold! Happy Trading!
TVC:USOILLong
by DG55Capital