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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

USD/TRY: The Turkish Central Bank updates inflation expectationsThe dollar pair stabilized against the Turkish lira USD/TRY during today's trading, to trade the Turkish currency at its lowest level ever against the dollar. On the American front, the dollar rose against major currencies after the Federal Reserve's decision last week to raise interest rates, as the dollar received support after a limited decline. At the present time, investors are awaiting more economic data to try to explore the path of monetary policy that the Federal Reserve may follow during the coming period, especially after inflation began to slow down. Current expectations indicate that raising interest rates during the past month represents the peak of monetary tightening in the United States of America, as the Fed is expected to stabilize the interest rate for several months before shifting and applying a rate cut starting from the second quarter of next year.
by Evar_Mayi
Current situation of the USD/TRY currency is in despairWhen analyzing the current situation of the USD/TRY currency pair, based on the latest data, it can be observed that 1 US dollar equals 26.0174 Turkish Lira. The daily change in the pair is recorded as -0.0096 or -0.0369%. In the past month, the highest value reached was 26.1617 TRY, while the lowest value was 20.1082 TRY. Considering the evaluation of technical indicators, oscillators indicate a neutral condition. The Average Directional Index (ADI) suggests a certain direction with a value of 48.7381. In short, there is no significant trend in the pair. Looking at other indicators, moving averages provide a strong "Buy" signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the overbought zone with a value of 70.1857, and the stochastic oscillator is at high levels. Based on technical analysis, it can be said that the indicators giving a "Buy" signal are predominant in the pair. However, in the long run, BIST may be more beneficial, and KKM also appears to be sensible.
Long
by BorsaMerkezi
The Turkish lira is dropping to new lowsTurkish lira sinks to fresh lows following the central bank’s interest rate hike The Turkish lira sank to new record lows after Turkey’s central bank raised the country’s benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points in a dramatic monetary policy reversal. The central bank lifted its key interest rate by almost double, from 8.5% to 15% Thursday, marking the country’s first hike since March 2021. However, that was still below Reuters’ expectations of a hike to 21%. The lira — which has been extending its plunge since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reelection — was last trading at 24.97 against the greenback. ″ is tanking big time and probably will continue to do so as they attempt to play catch up,” said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, adding that the central bank decision is “a little bit behind the curve.” Newly appointed Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan hinted at more hikes until the inflation situation in the country improves. “Monetary tightening will be further strengthened as much as needed in a timely and gradual manner until a significant improvement in the inflation outlook is achieved,” Erkan said in a statement Thursday. According to government statistics, the country’s annual inflation rate for May stood at 39.59%. Last October saw Turkey’s inflation rate soar to 85.51%.
by SroshMayi
TRY Bleeding Out%19 Interest rate, huge debts, vaccination progress is still very low. Turkish Central Bank manager kicked out because of interest rates, but we have still a huge interest rate and USD/TRYis still going forward. What Turkey could do? No tourism income for now, no leverage hand for interest anymore. Unfortunately, TRY will be 10 soon if we close daily above 8.58. Also, don't forget DXY is bleeding out what is gonna happen when DXY hits 98 again. Not financial advice.
Long
by kargaa
6
Turkish lira sank to new lows against the US dollar on ThursdayTurkish lira sinks to fresh low after report state lenders stop defending the currency The Turkish lira sank to new lows against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as concerns mounted over challenges facing the country’s new finance minister, and after a report that state lenders have stopped selling dollars to defend the currency. The dollar USDTRY, 0.55% climbed to 23.360 against the lira, a drop of 6.3%. That’s as investors continued to put money into Turkish stocks, in a bid to escape high inflation, that state lenders were no longer trying to prop up the lira with dollar sales, which could be a sign of the new incoming finance minister’s promise of a more “rational economic policy,” and a more freely floating currency. the country’s state banks don’t comment on market interventions. Reuters, meanwhile, cited four traders who said forex and gold reserves declines had halted from last week, as the government has used billions of dollars to keep the lira afloat. The central bank has cut its policy rates from roughly 20% in 2021 to 8.5% currently, while inflation hovered at just under 40% in May, but was above 85% in October. “Mr. Simsek is well-known and well-appreciated by the markets, and is now supposed to clean up the mess of the past year-and-a-half, and eventually restore investor confidence. But restoring confidence won’t be a piece of cake, of course,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, told clients in a note. “In past years, Turkey didn’t lack talented finance ministers or smart central bankers. But each time sometime tried to do his/her job correctly – which in Turkey means raising the rates – he/she got rapidly sacked. Therefore, what investors want to see in Turkey is not how talented Mehmet Simsek is in finance, but how resistant he will be to the low-rate pressure from the presidential office,” she said. ” Şimşek will need to fight the beneficiaries (and possibly the President himself) in, for instance, raising interest rates. By no means is it clear that Şimşek would win his battles that lie ahead,” he added. TECHNICALLY: if EURUSD closes the price above the trend line (23.180) then we will see more bullish till reaching (28.450) for the next months but closing under the trend line and stabilizing under it, then will drop to do a retest till (20.000)
Short
by SroshMayi
2
Türk lirası (USDTRY)- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑Given that I am Long on EURUSD this period i prefer to trade EURTRY instead of USDTRY: Check my post here for targets: Thoughts: Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports. People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected. A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I will dare to call  'Islamo-China-ization': Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad.  China for example likes their currency cheap. Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'. Creating an 'enemy or 2 or 3 or 50' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. Are people happy in those countries/regimes? These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people. Will the IMF need to step in? Will it want to step in? Will Erdogan accept it? Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?) run to the rescue for their own interest? Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money) All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer. For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR. 26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here. By the way, my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row: When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'. The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations. (Look at the last 2 links below....) “Old men make war, young men fight and die.” — Winston Churchill I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy. Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Links: Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : www.theguardian.com The West: www.bbc.com Brics: watcher.guru Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: www.reuters.com Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES: www.tradingview.com
Long
by FX_Professor
15
USDTRY-SELL Long-termThe pair makes every day higher highs, and what has been told is the constant purchasing of US dollar and the central bank inability to stop the flow. However, it is not a new story, and we can see on the chart (where RED arrow), we can indeed correct sharply. The RSIs were very extreme, and currently across the board, the daily, weekly and monthly chart are at overbought levels that are out of this world. I have been looking at this for a long time, and anything with a level of RSI near 90.0 or higher, will correct extreme as well. The correction should go at a minimum to 14.60 GANN support and when broken we visit 10.00 again as well, which may look very unlikely. It depends to how the government will act from now on. Those on the ground will have a better view on that.
Short
by peterbokma
16
USDTRY- SELL Long-termOf course, the pair is a controlled mechanism, and fast buyers of USD which makes it difficult for the central bank. We are nearing 2nd voting 28th May 2023, and amidst that extremely high inflation. So either we get a completely new currency, or we have a large correction upcoming. Those living in Turkey are far more expert than me on the current situation inside the country. I can only state technically that I have seen such levels of overbought state before, and corrections will happen, unless as mentioned a move away from the currency and start a new. Strategy LONG-TERM SELL between 18.50-21.50 and correction can takes us down to GANN support near 15.00.
Short
by peterbokma
9