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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

Right, I'm calling it! 😁💥Overview I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling. The Details 2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻 The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates hiking from 8.50% to 45.00% - and conventional monetary policy seems to have finally arrived😅 Erodgan seems more committed to tackling inflation and having central bank stability Things to consider I am not suggesting that Turkey is on the verge of a boom, though I am not ruling this out; inflation could be peaking, so the Lira may finally see strength. This will create an all-time high on the TRY charts. I suggest that the aggressive uptrend could be coming to an end, even if that means TRY pairs start ranging. The carry trade makes this an irresistible opportunity for me. I have been long TRYJPY since June 2023, which has resulted in generous daily swap payments💰
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
2
USDTRY-SELL strategy long-term Monthly chartThis is just informative, as it is clear the pair is heavily manipulated. However, it is interesting to see the FX forwards, having widened again since 8 days ago, and 42.5% rate setting central bank, does reflect the heavy cost of carry being short the pair. Obviously, this is to combat the weakening of the currency. I remember the French Franc overnight rate of 1,000% t0 combat weakness of the currency. Now where does this bring us. Technically we have a "falls bull flag" pattern, and we got extremely expensive cost of carry on the pair. One year outright is above 40.50, so its roughly 10 big figures per year cost of carry. so its obvious, for those in need to cover exports in Turkey, it is heaven. For speculators, if one can trade it (not advisable), correction may take some time. Technically we should see back somewhere 18.00, and carrying is beneficial. anyway, long time did not update as it is controlled and technical aspects do not work until such a time drastic measures are taken, i.e. interest rates of 1,000% may do the trick.
Short
by peterbokma
6
Update USDTRYThere is strong resistance between sellers and buyers of the Turkish currency, and the monthly candle that ended there is strong support for a further decline against the dollar, but there is an indication that the rise is nearing the end and will stop soon in the shaded area above, and I believe it will become an area of resistance and strong support for the Turkish currency against the dollar, and a major correction will begin from it. Please clarify that I am helping you with my point of view, which may be right or wrong, and see my previous analyzes of many currencies and forex in order to judge the owner of this analysis with a more accurate look Good luck
Long
by KhaldHegazy
1
USD/TRY 1$ = 29 TL You can see my previous graph (above). There is no good development in Turkey so I think that the dollar will increase more. Under the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey has descended into a dictatorship. In order for Turkey's dollar rate to improve needs to be changed through elections. It also occurs when the incoming government takes democratic steps. - RTE factor (Anti democratic leader) - Kurdish (Syria) Problem and security problems - war funds - - Economic indicators - Graph indicator / Technic Analysis (StochRSI + MACD + Mov50 + TD )
Long
by keci
12
USD/TRY Short idea Well, Keeping it simple as always (or I try at least) Here's another one of my ideas. Long on the Turkish lira (another crazy idea of mine) First Target 18$ Second Target 13$ I just want to be as transparent as possible with you guys. Right or wrong this is another investment of mine. I see on the long term (1 year - 2 years ) a regain of field from the Turkish lira which has became trash during the last 2-3 years cause of the low interest rates and an inflation reaching the high part of the double digits. Now things seem to have changed (SEEM) we have the TCB boosting rates trying to slow down inflation. We know that once lost it's SO HARD to gain trust back, but in long time I see Turkish lira gain back. P.S. We have a strong dollar in the recent days so it might be volatile (synonym everyone uses to say temporary losses apparently ) for the short medium term. P.P.S. This is not a financial advice I publish for the sole purpose to have feedback (constructive at least) Peace out :)
Short
by Krsnake
The 10 years analysis for #USDTRY #TürkiyeBased on Gann analytical techniques, if #USDTRY concluded the month of November above the 28. This is indicative of a prospective upward movement, with anticipated milestones at 34 by March 2024, followed by 44, and a final target of 56. The projected timeline for achieving these targets spans from June 2025 to December 2026. Noteworthy is the technical analysis, which finds support in the prevailing inflation figures. Confident in the capabilities of the Central Bank, I anticipate a resolution to the TRY predicament within the next three years. This resolution is expected to catalyze a notable bullish trend in the currency.
Long
by Lawrence-Sherif
3
Looking at USD/TRY following the huge rate rise last weekLast week, the Turkish central bank made a significant move by raising rates by 750 basis points. This caused a sharp downward movement in the US dollar relative to the Turkish lira. Since then, there has been a notable response, with the market showing a sharp rebound. During times of such volatile market reactions, it's valuable to examine Fibonacci retracements. These retracements help us predict potential new support and resistance levels in the market. Looking ahead, we can pinpoint key levels of support and resistance. The first is the 38.2% retracement, approximately at 26.00/25.98. The second notable level is the 78.6% retracement, approximately at 26.80. It's likely that the market will move within these boundaries as it absorbs and adapts to the unexpected rate increase. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
by The_STA
4
USD/TRY is to jump in 2023?For the last months, the Turkish lira has been traded near the all-time lows against USD. I think that demand for the lira would shift soon, and it would trigger a breakout of resistance of 18.7 with the first psychological price target of TRY 20 for 1 USD with consolidation near 25 in the second half of the year. In terms of technical analysis, I do not see any compelling things on the USD/TRY chart. Therefore, I decided to look at an exotic currency pair with TRY on one side. I have taken Hungarian forint or HUF. Comparing HUF with USD or EUR , we can say, it is a weak currency that has constantly lost its value for the last 20 years. However, against the weakest TRY, HUF is a king. On the TRY/HUF chart, I see an opportunity to breakout of support of HUF 18.4 for TRY until the end of the year. The first target could be 14 with the chance to drop to 10. Keeping in mind that HUF is a weak currency that is now in a temporary good shape against the world currencies, such a possible forint strengthening against the lira could happen only if the latter drop to the majors. If TRY/HUF is to be 14, and USDHUF is near its essential middle-term resistance of 380. It means USDTRY would be around 27,14. If TRY/HUF reaches 10, USDTRY would be 38. With a magical macroeconomic policy in Turkey, including jumping inflation , artificially low-interest rates in Turkey , and raising interest rates in USD, EUR, and Erdogan's elections in June (and budget spending increase), it doesn't seem impossible to me.
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
Aftermath of interest rate hike of CBRT 🙃The question is... What have been changed in the Turkish economy? 🤔 1) Is the price of petrol will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 2) Is the price of electricity will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 3) Is the pricing in housing market will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 4) Is the pricing in automobile market will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 5) Is the pricing of other goods and services in the market will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... So... Why usdtry is in the sharp fall? (Actually it's not in the sharp fall but they are presenting us as a sharp fall 😉) if this interest rate hike was real, all the prices in the market should started to decrease with respect to interest rate hike... We believe; it may be another form of fx manipulation...
Long
by Dr_Piyasa
3