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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

USDTRY-NEUTRAL SELL MTNo change in view. We are again in a range once again, but drifting higher slowly. The fundamentals suggest we should see higher short-term due to the ongoing crisis and affects of it. Technically we could see 14.50-14.75 > 15.50-16.00. I prefer to be medium-term seller and not playing a short-term upward strategy due to cost factors. The ultimate move medium-term will be 10.50 - 9.00 even difficult to see at this point in time. The market is long and requires correcting for the medium-term positions.
by peterbokma
USDTRY-NEUTRAL upside biasWe are not as yet seeing very strong upside move. The support 13.98 is there, and same time we have seen it stalling 14.50-14.75 area as well. The technical pictures for short-term neutral, but fundamentally the current situation may spill over into TRY and causing weakness. Some followers misunderstand my analysis. I like to clarify it a bit more now. The LOG-TERM chart is extremely overbought, and this suggest strongly we will see 10.50-9.00. However, as noted in many days and weeks, I feel we may see higher levels short-term for the stated reasons. it is possible to see 15.25 - 16.50 again, and that is the time we SELL long-term and/or add. The core long-term is already short 13.50 upwards and earning positive carry along the way.
by peterbokma
USDTRY-SELL strategy upside biasThe pattern starts looking as if we may see strong run up. Both daily and weekly chart has positive stochastic and we have established 13.98 as a base once again. I understand the cost nature of being long is not good, therefore rather we trade it only medium-term for now. SELL strategy is SELL 15.25 > 16.50 for now. I think we may see higher then 14.60 this time due to weakness in RUB and it will drag the TRY along a bit plus higher oil prices should increase the inflationary picture world wide. The over view is down toward 10.50 - 9.00 after we have gone higher at first.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDTRY- 02Mar2022USDTRY- 02Mar2022 On the monthly, USDTRY was not able to close above the previous monthly candle. Hence, price action is mixed for Mar22. On the daily, price could potentially dropped back to retest 20EMA at around 12.580. On the H4, price is holding up above the ascending trendline near the 13.800 area. Price action is mixed for now but if it broke below the ascending trendline, we could potentially expect it to drop to daily 20EMA support at 12.580. This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
by TTMFS
USDTRY- SELL with upside biasThe RSI is still very high 86.6 and the stochastic is positive. The scenario I feel is, that we will again move upwards short-term 14.50-16.00 (it's a medium-term view right) and we will only add or SELL in those ranges to create a valuable average for the down move to 10.50 -9.00 after the climb. The issue is, it is costly to be LONG and one cannot be sure when or how long the move will take to go upwards. I personally focus on SELL but picking the higher levels and will await patiently for that.
Short
by peterbokma