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Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason.📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The Bitcoin price is trading within a narrowing price range, formed after an unsuccessful test of the major resistance block at $100,000, followed by a correction to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent consolidation. This has resulted in the formation of a pattern known as a narrowing wedge, the breakout of which could indicate the next direction for BTC price movement. If buyers, supported by fundamental factors, manage to break through the psychological resistance level of $100,000, we can expect a strong upward momentum toward the next resistance zones at $110,000–$120,000 and a test of the global trendline resistance. Conversely, if sellers push the price below the $90,000 support block and establish themselves beneath the EMA 200 line, we anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5–0.61 Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels coincide with Imbalance zones, where consolidations are needed to close gaps in horizontal volume levels. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start? Bitcoin's dominance has begun a rapid decline, and we are currently witnessing an attempt to break out of a parallel price channel. If it manages to consolidate below the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect further declines in dominance, which would indicate the start of significant capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins. What are Bitcoin's long-term growth targets? Above the current all-time high (ATH), there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will rely on trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in exchange order books, and, of course, indicators: Fibonacci Extension Levels: The nearest growth targets for Bitcoin are the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, which lie in the range of $104,000–$112,000. Global Trendline: The next target could be the global trendline drawn based on the peaks of the previous growth cycle. A test of this trendline might occur around the $120,000 level. RSI Analysis: The RSI indicator is currently about 18% away from its resistance trendline. Translating this to Bitcoin’s price chart, this corresponds to a range of approximately $114,000–$120,000. This is where a test of the resistance line may occur, as observed in all previous Bitcoin market cycles. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone at 76. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown to $3.37 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has fallen to 56.18. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 100,000 and 120,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 80,000 - 90,000 🔴 Supply zone: 100,000 - 150,000 Levels for long positions: 90,000 - psychological support level 88,000 - large support block 60,000 - large support block Levels for short positions: 100,000 - largest resistance block 110,000 - large resistance block 120,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance 📊 Fundamental analysis In November, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $6.1 billion—the highest monthly figure since the instrument's launch in January. This indicates growing investor confidence in the asset while favoring the security of regulated ETFs over direct BTC purchases. Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could support a BTC rally above $100,000. Ethereum and Altcoin Investment Trends Investment inflows into Ethereum (ETH)-focused products reached $634 million, pushing the total for this year to over $2.2 billion, surpassing the previous record of $2 billion set in 2021. Similarly, Ripple (XRP)-based crypto funds received record-breaking investments of $95 million. This surge may be linked to preparations for ETFs on other cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating the onset of an altseason. Regulatory and Macroeconomic Developments SEC Leadership Announcement: Tomorrow, information may emerge regarding the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a key financial regulator overseeing the crypto market. Under current chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has intensified crypto market regulation. The appointment of a crypto-friendly commissioner could boost market sentiment and further support the start of an altseason. U.S. Labor Market Data: Labor market reports are set to be released this week, serving as a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A continuation of rate cuts by the Fed would likely bolster overall growth in the cryptocurrency market. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 12/04, 21:45 - Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. ➤ 12/06, 21:45 - US Unemployment Rate for November. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - US GDP (q/q) (Q3) ➤ 01/29/2025, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In November, the price of Bitcoin was in an upward trend. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎 Total price movement by all signals: + 54.92% Maximum price movement: + 42.10% Average price movement: + 13.73% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
BITCOIN - Price can reach resistance line and then start to fallHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some days ago price traded inside wedge, where it some time traded between $69000 level and then started to grow. Later price broke $69000 level and rose in wedge to $84000 points, after which BTC exited from this pattern. Next, price continued to move up inside rising channel, where it broke $91500 level and rose to resistance line. Then Bitcoin corrected this level, after which some time traded near and rose to resistance line of channel again. But a not long time ago it corrected, after which in a short time rose a little and now continues to move up. I think that price can reach resistance line and then start to decline to $95100 support line of channel. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
1
Future Outlook with StochRSI and OBV Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- I used TradingView's index chart to see the overall flow of BTC. -------------------------------------- (BTCUSD 1M chart) OBV is showing an upward breakout of the High Line. Accordingly, we should look at how the High Line is expressed when the candle of the next month is created. The StochRSI indicator has risen above 50 points, and has changed to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA. Accordingly, we should look at whether it will maintain the current state and show an upward trend. Looking at the movement of the indicators on the 1M chart, I think it is highly likely that the uptrend will continue. - (1W chart) There is some ambiguity in analyzing BTC due to the movement of the 1W chart. The StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point, and the StochRSI EMA indicator is approaching the 100 point. As of now, the StochRSI EMA has never touched the 100 point. Accordingly, I think the pressure for a decline is increasing as time goes by. The OBV indicator has risen above the high line. Accordingly, if a high line is created next week, we should see if it enters the high line. If so, BTC is expected to show a downward trend. However, the StochRSI and OBV indicators cannot tell the extent of the decline. Therefore, if the decline begins, there is a possibility that the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1W chart) indicator will be touched. - (1D chart) BW(100) indicator is created at 101197.25. Accordingly, in order to continue the uptrend, the price must rise above 101197.25 to maintain it. The OBV indicator is near the high line. Accordingly, when it rises above 101197.25, we need to see if the OBV indicator breaks through the high line upward. The StochRSI indicator is below 50, and StochRSI < StochRSI EMA. Accordingly, we need to see if it rises above 50 points and switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA and is maintained. If not, and BTC falls below 95961.82, there is a possibility that it will touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. At this time, if the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, then the important issue is whether there is support near that indicator. ------------------------------------ (BTCUSDT 1D chart) After the volatility period around December 3, it is important to see whether the price can be maintained near the important support and resistance area of ​​95904.28-98892.0 until the next volatility period. Therefore, the point to watch is whether it can reset the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart while moving sideways unless it falls below 95904.28. The key point is what I said on the BTCUSDT 1D chart. If it rises above the BW(100) indicator point of 101109.59 and maintains the price, and if the StochRSI indicator rises above the 50 point and changes to the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, there is a possibility that it will rise further. However, as I mentioned earlier on the 1W chart, the StochRSI EMA indicator on the 1W chart is approaching the 100 point, so it will eventually show a downward trend. As explained in the big picture below, the coin market is expected to maintain an upward trend until the end of 2025. Therefore, I think that even if there is a short-term decline or a downward trend this time, it will eventually rise above the current price. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to it. Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci. Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin Update | m30 TF Still bitcoin is pushing the price slowly on recent ATH at 104.1k resistance area but LTF movement of bitcoin fail to break the recent swing at 102.5k now present structure is forming a mini bullish structure. 👀 Keep on eye on white box area which is our possible rejection area for flip of bias as bearish. 🐻 But if price will break above on white box and same time on recent swing at 102.5k price will aggressively hit the ATH and buyers volume will kick in. 🐂 Always wait for confirmation panda fam while market is on sideways. 🧘
by cryptopandaph
3
Practical Guide to Building Profitable Trading StrategiesAfter reading this article, you'll understand the key elements needed to build a profitable trading system, identify potential flaws, and learn how to fix them for consistent results. Four Essential Elements of an Effective Strategy 1. Trend Identification ("Should I buy or sell?") - 50% of success The trend is the foundation of any strategy. To identify it, you can use tools such as moving averages, volume profiles (when volume accumulates above the current price, it signals a downtrend; when it accumulates below the price, it signals an uptrend), or even macroeconomic analysis, news sentiment, and crowd psychology for additional confirmation. For example : If the 200 SMA indicates an uptrend, focus only on buying opportunities. Tip : Avoid using multiple tools for the same purpose as conflicting signals can lead to confusion. One reliable tool per element is sufficient. 2. Key Level Identification ("Where should I enter the trade?") - 30% of success This element helps to locate zones with the most favorable risk/reward (RR) ratio. Fibonacci levels, support/resistance zones, pivot points or smart money concepts can indicate whether the price is at a discount, premium or fair value. For example : Pivot points can be used to identify levels such as the "pivot point" and the nearest support/resistance zones. Tip : Your entry point should be supported by a support or resistance level, while the path to the take profit target should remain unobstructed. 3. Entry Signals ("When should I enter?") - 15% success rate Entry signals can be determined by oscillators such as stochastics, candlestick patterns or volume spikes. For example : When the price reaches a support zone and the Stochastic leaves the oversold area (crossing above the 20 level), this could be a signal to enter a long position. Important: Signals only help with timing; they should not be the basis of your entire strategy. 4. Filters for accuracy - 10% of success Filters improve the quality of trades by adding additional conditions. Examples include volatility (ATR), trend strength (ADX), volume or seasonal patterns. Example : Volume can confirm the strength of a trend or a potential reversal. For example, if the price reaches a support level after a correction and volume spikes, this could indicate buying activity and a possible reversal. Tip : If your strategy uses price-based tools for trend, levels and signals, consider adding a non-price based filter (e.g. volatility or volume). Step-by-Step Plan for Identifying Trading Opportunities Here's how to combine these elements into a strategy: Identify the trend: Use a tool such as the 200 SMA to determine the direction of the market. Find the key level: Use Fibonacci retracements or support/resistance zones to locate critical price levels. Wait for a signal: Confirm with candlestick patterns, oscillators or volume. Apply filters: Ensure that market conditions are in line with your strategy using ATR or volume analysis. Why it is important to adjust your strategy Markets are constantly evolving and no strategy works equally well in all conditions. Adjusting parameters to current conditions is critical for consistent success. Consider: Asset type: cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, etc. Market conditions: trending, range-bound or highly volatile markets. Timeframe: intraday, swing, or long-term trading. Example 1 : Moving averages (e.g. 200 SMA) work well in trending markets, but lose effectiveness in sideways conditions. In such cases, oscillators such as RSI or Stochastic provide more precise entry and exit signals. Example 2 : During periods of high volatility, such as after major news events, ATR can help set stop-losses and take-profits to account for wider price ranges. Example 3 : Shorten the length of the SMA for faster intraday trading. The importance of testing your strategy Before using a strategy in live markets, you should ensure its effectiveness. Testing is critical, especially for beginners, to avoid unnecessary mistakes and losses. Backtesting : Use historical data on platforms such as TradingView to see how your strategy would have performed in the past. Trading simulators : Test your strategy on demo accounts or trading simulators to mimic real market conditions. Success Metrics : Evaluate your strategy using key metrics such as profit factor, risk-reward ratio, and expectation. Tip: Analyze both winning and losing trades to identify weaknesses and refine your approach. Let's discuss This is just the beginning. I'll cover each element in more detail in future articles. If you have your own approaches that make your strategies successful, share them in the comments. Let's share and improve together!
Education
by Crypto_Strateg
Bearish: Possible Retest of Previous All Time HighBitcoin's price action signals potential weakness, with the weekly RSI at 78.49 in overbought territory and a bearish divergence forming on the daily chart's RSI. The rising wedge pattern on the daily timeframe further supports a bearish outlook, indicating momentum loss as price approaches the wedge's apex. A short-term correction appears likely, with a possible revisit of the previous all time high. Weekly Analysis RSI (78.49): Overbought conditions indicate that Bitcoin's recent upward movement may have pushed prices into an unsustainable range. Historically, such levels often precede corrections. Stochastic RSI (98.69): Despite being in the oversold zone, the proximity of the K line to the D line suggests a possible momentum shift. If this crossover occurs, it could confirm waning bullish momentum. The weekly timeframe suggests overextension in price action, hinting at a correction. Daily Analysis Rising Wedge Pattern: A well-established bearish pattern; as price approaches the wedge's apex, momentum loss aligns with bearish expectations. A break below the wedge's lower trendline would confirm a bearish move. Bearish Divergence (RSI): Momentum slowing down despite rising prices strengthens the bearish case. This divergence often signals exhaustion in the prevailing trend.
Short
by heywippa
BTCUSDT Broke parallel channel!!Join our community and start your crypto journey today for: In-depth market analysis Accurate trade setups Early access to trending altcoins Life-changing profit potential Let's analyze BTCUSDT on lower time frame: BTCUSDT has broken the parallel channel on the 4-hour chart, and the retest appears to be complete. BTC is likely to bounce off the support levels, as BTC dominance is gradually declining. This suggests that BTC may enter a sideways movement, which could create favorable conditions for altcoins to rally. Key support zones: Primary support zone: $89,632 - $87,021 Secondary support zone: $78,567 - $75,829 If you find this analysis helpful, please hit the like button to support my content! Share your thoughts in the comments and feel free to request any specific chart analysis you’d like to see. Happy Trading!!
by persis10t
Bitcoin Elliott Wave Forecast: $328K in the Coming Cycle (BeginThis analysis, based on Elliott Wave Theory and previous bull run data, projects Bitcoin's next cycle as follows: Wave 1: An impressive rally took BTC to approximately $71,000, marking the first upward impulse. Wave 2: A correction brought the price down to $50,000, providing a strong base for the next move. Wave 3: The largest wave targets $212,000, driven by increasing institutional adoption and market momentum. Wave 4: A pullback is anticipated around $150,000, acting as consolidation support. Wave 5: The final leg pushes Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $328,000, completing the bullish structure. Key Levels: Support: $50,000, $150,000 Resistance: $71,000, $212,000, $328,000 Timeframe: Extending to late 2025 - early 2026. This analysis highlights how historical price behavior aligns with current projections. The clean wave structure indicates Bitcoin's bullish path, with significant milestones at each wave. What are your thoughts on this $328K target? Are we ready for the next wave of growth? 🚀 Share your opinion below!
Long
by eenvid
BTCUSDT.P BEARISH IDEAlast trade recap-trade just nipped my stoploss and made a move to the downside. We lost but that's ok all I did was learn from it and that's all that matters. Todays trade I'm still thinking bearish on BTC because it swept liquidity and made a move to the downside. While moving down we made a 30m imbalance so we tapped into that and now we see a break of structure to the down side on the 30m timeframe. So I think I just got another entry chance. What do you guys think?
Short
by tourvilledamian