USDNZD trade ideas
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6123, which is an overlap resistance and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6052, a multi-swing low support level.
The stop loss will be at 0.6171, an overlap resistance level with 38.2% Fibo retracement
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NZDUSD : Two probabilities for 10/21/2024NZDUSD with a high probability to make the decision for 10/21/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
NZDUSD confirmationsI have strong conviction that this is going to drop significantly. There are numerous confirmations and rejections aligning with the setup, plus both the weekly and daily trends are clearly bearish. I'm fully committed to this sell trade so i'm putting my house and everything else on this trade. 🧑🏻💻💰📊
•Weekly, daily bearish
•Ema 50 bearish
•Head and shoulders pattern, retest of neckline and many rejections on that, etc..
NZDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.60800 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.60800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NZDUSD ChartNZDUSD Chart
There is Bearish trend. Now, bullish divergence formed also have the Bullish falling Wedge Reversal pattern. So, will take buy entry at the breakout of last LH.
NZDUSD 4H long watchlistIt's a quiet week no trades yet, but that's a good thing.
That means also no losses are taken. So my decision-making ability to spot only good quality trades for my system works.
NZDUSD 4H long is on only thing that caught my attention and I will explain why.
First thing what I always want to see a long clean downtrend breaking support. It's hovering arround that level so that's good.
Second thing consolidation pattern with a couple of fakeouts. The last deep red candle pierced deeper than the rest. So that indicates price is looking for liquidity to move up again.
What's also really nice after the deep red candle we see some small indecision candles.
The only thing what needs to happen now is one medium to strong bullish candle I draw it on the charts as example. That's enough reason for me to enter.
If not I skip the trade with no problem :)
NZDUSD Short Market structure Bearish on HTFs 30
Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA retest
Rejection Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily Previous Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 0.61500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.58
Entry 125%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
NZDUSD: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell NZDUSD.
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NZD/USD Attracts Modest Buying on Friday Amid USD WeaknessThe NZD/USD pair has attracted some buying interest for the second consecutive day on Friday, driven by a modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside momentum lacks strong bullish conviction as the pair continues to hover around the 0.6071 level, close to the one-month low touched earlier this week. Despite the rebound, market sentiment surrounding the pair remains cautious, with traders awaiting further cues from both global economic developments and key technical indicators.
US Dollar Weakness Offers Relief
The primary driver behind the modest gains in NZD/USD has been the slight pullback in the US Dollar. The greenback has recently shown signs of weakening after a strong rally in previous weeks, largely supported by robust US economic data and hawkish expectations around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The recent downtick in the USD has provided some breathing room for risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in the pair.
Technical Outlook: Demand Zone Holds Firm
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair appears to have rejected a significant demand zone, suggesting that there is support for the pair at current levels. This demand area has seen increased buying interest, particularly as retail traders remain extremely short on the pair. In contrast, smart money – typically institutional investors with deeper market insights – has started to build long positions, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
The rejection of the demand zone and the presence of long positions from smart money traders suggest that the NZD/USD pair could be poised for further gains. This technical setup aligns with the broader seasonality patterns that indicate a potential uptrend in the coming weeks.
Seasonality and Market Sentiment: Bullish Signs Ahead?
Seasonality data, which tracks historical patterns in currency movements, shows a potential uptrend for the NZD/USD pair. This is supported by the current market positioning, where retail traders are overwhelmingly short, creating a contrarian signal for a potential rally. Smart money's shift towards building long positions adds weight to the argument that the pair may be headed for a sustained move higher.
Given these factors, we have decided to open a long position on NZD/USD, taking advantage of the technical setup, smart money movements, and favorable seasonality trends. While the overall market sentiment remains cautious, the combination of these signals offers a compelling case for a potential bullish move in the near term.
Conclusion: A Cautious Bullish Outlook
While the NZD/USD pair has attracted modest buying on the back of USD weakness, the bullish conviction remains limited for now. However, the rejection of a key demand area, coupled with the increasing long positions from smart money and favorable seasonality patterns, suggests that the pair could see further upside in the days ahead.
As always, traders should remain cautious and monitor upcoming economic data releases and market developments that could influence the pair's direction. Nonetheless, the technical and fundamental setup currently points to a potential opportunity for upside gains, and we are positioned accordingly with a long trade.
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Falling wedge on support.Broke the falling wedge , we could see a very strong reversal. NEXT STOPS ARE THE PREVIOUS SUPPLY zones which brought us here
NZDUSD Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias on October 18, 2024Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
The NZDUSD pair is showing a slight bullish bias on October 18, 2024, driven by a combination of fundamental factors and the latest market conditions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading, supported by improving domestic economic data and a shift in global risk sentiment. Below are the key drivers contributing to the upward momentum in NZDUSD today.
1. Improved New Zealand Economic Data
One of the primary factors supporting the NZDUSD’s bullish bias is the release of stronger-than-expected New Zealand economic data. Recent GDP figures and labor market reports have indicated a healthier-than-expected recovery, particularly in sectors like agriculture and tourism, which are critical to the country’s economy. The positive data has boosted investor confidence in the New Zealand economy, leading to increased demand for the NZD.
2. Risk-On Sentiment in Global Markets
A risk-on sentiment in global financial markets has also contributed to the NZD's strength. As a high-beta currency, the New Zealand Dollar tends to perform well in periods of risk appetite. Global equity markets have been relatively stable, and there has been a broad move towards riskier assets, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies like the USD. This has allowed the NZD to benefit from higher risk tolerance among investors today.
3. Weaker US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar has been under pressure today as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Recent commentary from Fed officials has indicated a potential slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation shows signs of cooling. The prospect of a more dovish Fed has weakened the USD, giving the NZDUSD pair room to rise. Additionally, a softer dollar makes NZD-denominated assets more attractive, providing further upside for the pair.
4. Commodity Prices Supporting the NZD
New Zealand’s economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, particularly dairy and agricultural products. Today, commodity prices are showing some resilience, further supporting the NZD. As a commodity-linked currency, the NZD often follows the price movements of key exports, and recent strength in these markets is bolstering demand for the currency. This is a positive factor in today’s market conditions, giving the NZDUSD pair a slight bullish edge.
5. Technical Analysis: NZDUSD Holding Above Key Support Levels
From a technical perspective, NZDUSD is holding above key support levels near 0.5850, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. The pair has formed higher lows, and the bullish momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which indicates a slightly bullish bias. If the pair manages to stay above this support level, traders could see further gains toward the next resistance around 0.5900.
Conclusion: NZDUSD Faces Slight Bullish Bias Today
With stronger New Zealand economic data, global risk-on sentiment, a weaker US Dollar, and resilient commodity prices, NZDUSD is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on October 18, 2024. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and any potential shifts in market sentiment that could alter the dynamics of the currency pair.
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Kiwi H1 | Heading into resistanceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.6070 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.6089 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 0.6038 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
SellIf the buyers are to make a play, they need to hold the 61.8% August low fib. Contrary to that and the sellers will continue to pound against the lower swing area. Any break below this horizontal line of 0.60313 increases the selling confidence down 0.60150 and further down 0.59836.
NZDUSD-LongNZDUSD has formed a double bottom after a long bearish trend,so we will take a buy stop entry at the break of neck line
Buy nzdusdLast selling idea almost 300 pips tp hited
Now we looking buy entry just let sweep low and then enter after confirmation
Press Kiwi Further As Inflation CoolsFundamentals & Sentiment
NZD:
- Data: CPI along with prior recent data are dovish
- RBNZ: "there's a scope for further cuts..."
USD:
- Fed: Cautious approach to cuts
- Data: mixed
- Bullish CFTC
Technical & Other
- Sell limit
Setup: TC(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Range
Min target: Next support
Stop loss: 0.33%
Position size: 0.5R
NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD
In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China.
The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD.
USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair.
Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment
From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain.
Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength.
In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market.
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Current Market Outlook:The NZDUSD pair is currently positioned at a key technical level, indicating potential movement in either direction. However, with major USD-related economic data set to be released shortly, the market is poised for increased volatility.
Key USD Data (Release Time: Today):
Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast at 0.1% (previous: 0.1%)
Retail Sales m/m: Forecast at 0.3% (previous: 0.1%)
Unemployment Claims: Forecast at 241K (previous: 258K)
Scenario 1: Positive USD Data
Strong retail sales or lower unemployment claims could boost USD strength, causing NZDUSD to dip. Expect possible short-term downside volatility or even a spike down to hunt liquidity. However, a recovery could follow, leading to an upside push.
Scenario 2: Negative USD Data
Weak retail sales or higher unemployment claims may weaken USD, prompting a bullish reaction in NZDUSD. This could trigger an upward spike, potentially extending the bullish trend.
Risk Management Tips:
Avoid over-leveraging: Markets can spike in either direction.
Use stop-losses wisely: Place stops in a safe zone to avoid whipsaws caused by news volatility.
Stay prepared for both scenarios and consider waiting for a clear trend after the news releases to confirm direction before entering new trades
NZDUSDWe're experiencing an extended bearish move on this pair for quite some time now and price's been consolidating, I do expect a correction upward say 38.2 or 50% FIB before the continuation of the bearish move.
Cheers
NZDUSD bearish idea confirmationsAs seen in the bigger picture, the pair has been predominantly bearish. My decision to go short was based on the break and retest of the green line I drew. After that, the price respected the fvg drawn multiple times and formed a small head and shoulders pattern, signaling a shift towards bearish momentum. There were also a few small fair value gaps on the 5-minute chart that needed to be filled, which the price has now done, and it’s heading downward. My prediction is that it will continue to drop to fill the daily fvg at the price level of 0.60300 , after which it may either bounce back upward or continue its decline.
If you can see there was even a demand zone that it broke and then retested successfully.
Slight Bullish Bias Expected on NZDUSD in 17/10/2024NZDUSD: Slight Bullish Bias Expected on 17/10/2024 – Key Drivers Analysis
As we head into today's trading session on 17/10/2024, NZDUSD exhibits a slightly bullish bias. Several key fundamental factors and current market conditions suggest potential upward momentum for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). Let’s explore these factors in detail to better understand the outlook.
1. New Zealand Economic Data
Today’s bullish sentiment surrounding the NZDUSD pair is largely influenced by better-than-expected New Zealand economic data. Recent releases, including New Zealand’s GDP growth and Retail Sales figures, have exceeded forecasts. These indicators suggest a stronger domestic economy, which has led to increased demand for the New Zealand Dollar.
Furthermore, New Zealand's Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance compared to other central banks, which keeps investor sentiment leaning positively toward the NZD. Expectations of further tightening from the RBNZ, or at least holding rates at elevated levels, continue to support the currency.
2. US Dollar Weakness
A significant factor contributing to the bullish bias in NZDUSD is the current weakness in the US Dollar. Despite recent strength due to US Federal Reserve hawkish tones, there is increasing uncertainty surrounding the US economy, particularly in light of the recent inflation data and soft employment reports. These factors suggest the Fed might delay further rate hikes, or even consider cutting rates in the future. As a result, traders are shifting away from the USD, favoring riskier currencies like the NZD.
Additionally, with geopolitical tensions increasing global market uncertainty, the USD's status as a safe-haven currency has seen temporary weakening, making room for NZD appreciation.
3. Commodities Support
New Zealand’s economy is heavily dependent on commodities, particularly dairy exports. In recent weeks, global dairy prices have seen an uptick, which directly supports the value of the New Zealand Dollar. A rise in commodity prices enhances the terms of trade for New Zealand, offering support to the NZD.
This is coupled with a broader improvement in risk appetite in the global markets. As risk sentiment remains positive, commodity-linked currencies like the NZD often benefit from these shifts in investor appetite.
4. Technical Setup
From a technical analysis perspective, the NZDUSD pair has recently bounced off a key support level around the 0.5880-0.5900 region. This technical bounce aligns with the broader bullish narrative and has seen the pair trade towards resistance near 0.6000. If bullish momentum continues, we could see further upside, potentially testing higher levels around 0.6050-0.6100.
The RSI indicator also shows a potential shift into bullish territory, indicating increasing buying pressure on the pair.
Conclusion: Slight Bullish Bias for NZDUSD on 17/10/2024
Overall, the NZDUSD is likely to exhibit a slightly bullish bias throughout today’s session due to stronger New Zealand economic performance, a weakening US Dollar, rising commodity prices, and favorable technical conditions. Traders looking to capitalize on this momentum might consider long positions with near-term targets around 0.6000 and 0.6050.
However, it is important to stay cautious of any sudden shifts in global risk sentiment or surprise economic data releases from the US that could change the dynamics.
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