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USDJPY trade ideas

Market Analysis 11/1/24Hello everyone, welcome back to our daily market analysis. Today, we examined our fundamental data from yesterday and today. While reviewing, please bear in mind that today marks the commencement of the month. Consequently, we anticipate the emergence of concerning news for several currencies. However, we will primarily focus on the United States Dollar (USD). The USD’s NFP data warrants our attention due to its potential to induce volatility. As traders, it is imperative to consider these factors: the month’s inception and the possibility of a drop in NFP information, which could further amplify volatility. Today’s fundamental data indicates a favorable position for CHF, EUR, and JPY, while AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD, and USD exhibit a weaker trend.
by milesjohnson778
THOUGHTS ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - With this market I am expecting some bearish structure as I want price to put in a deeper correction to the downside before taking us higher in the market. Before price does that I am expecting an initial correction to the upside fractally in order for price to grab more Supply allowing price to continue lower performing this deeper correction. Once price trades us higher up and into the Supply Zone above I will be waiting for relevant pieces of confirmation in order to enter short in this market, I will ride price down and into the Demand zone below. Once price trades us down and into the Demand zone I will look to close my short positions and I will prepare to go long in this market with it being a predominately bullish market on the higher timeframe structure, this giving us a clear longer term bias.
Short
by Lukegforex
USDJPY Daily Analysis: A Slight Bearish Bias Expected!!Introduction Today’s analysis of the USDJPY pair suggests a potential for slight bearish movement. Key fundamental factors, including recent US and Japanese economic data and central bank positions, seem to favor a downside bias. Let’s examine these drivers in detail to provide a comprehensive view for traders and investors monitoring the USDJPY. 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Tone The US Federal Reserve’s latest communication indicates a cautious approach, with market participants widely expecting the Fed to maintain its current interest rate. This dovish tone, coupled with moderating US economic data, could weaken the US Dollar. If the Fed holds rates or hints at potential rate cuts in 2024, this could weigh on the USD, providing room for JPY strength against the Dollar. Consequently, the market’s perception of a less aggressive Fed policy may contribute to the USDJPY pair’s bearish bias today. 2. Bank of Japan’s Evolving Stance The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has recently shown signs of potentially moving away from its ultra-loose policy stance. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments have signaled a potential shift in monetary policy, raising speculation around adjustments in yield control measures. Any further tightening of Japanese yields or gradual normalization signals may strengthen the JPY as Japanese bond yields rise, attracting capital inflows. This shift, however gradual, could support a stronger JPY, thereby pressuring USDJPY downward. 3. Japanese Economic Resilience Japan’s economy has recently demonstrated steady resilience, with improved inflation data aligning closer to the BoJ’s targets. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings and positive manufacturing activity lend support to the JPY. The BoJ’s confidence in these indicators may reinforce market sentiment that Japan is on a steady path to growth. Consequently, with USD expected to remain relatively soft, this positions the JPY more favorably in the USDJPY pair, reinforcing today’s bearish outlook. 4. Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows In today’s mixed risk sentiment environment, safe-haven assets like the JPY often become more attractive. Investors may favor the JPY in times of global economic uncertainty or as geopolitical events unfold. As the US Dollar is pressured by softer economic indicators, the JPY’s safe-haven appeal may drive demand, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish tendency today. Conclusion In conclusion, the USDJPY pair shows potential for a slight bearish bias today due to the Fed’s cautious stance, the BoJ’s gradual policy evolution, resilient Japanese economic data, and safe-haven flows favoring the JPY. Traders may find it beneficial to watch these fundamental factors closely, as they provide critical insights into USDJPY’s likely direction. Keywords: #USDJPYanalysis, #USDollar, #JapaneseYen, #USDJPYbearishbias, #ForextradingNovember12024, #FederalReservepolicy, #Bankof Japanstance, #JPYstrength, #Safehavencurrency, #Forextechnicalanalysis, #Japaneseinflationdata, #Forextradinginsights.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY - Yen will continue to strengthen?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zone and buy in those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment for October, continuing to believe that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace. However, it downgraded its outlook on production, indicating that output might be facing challenges and may struggle to grow significantly. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister, Akazawa, stated that currency movements are being closely monitored, and proposed policies from other parties will be reviewed. He also noted that a weaker yen could lead to a decrease in income and private consumption, particularly if wage growth is insufficient. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 103 out of 111 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November and December of this year, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, 74 out of 96 surveyed economists predict that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will drop to 3% to 3.25% or higher by the end of 2025. A recent report from CIBC suggests that a 3% growth in U.S. GDP is unlikely to overheat the economy. CIBC believes that the U.S. economy can sustain growth at this rate while continuing its rate-cutting cycle. The report shows that U.S. economic growth has reached 2.8%, slightly below analysts’ 3% expectation. Nonetheless, the details reflect a robust economic performance, with domestic consumption offsetting the negative effects of net trade. CIBC analysts argue that 3% growth should be seen as a new measure of economic capacity rather than a sign of overheating. They point to improvements in productivity and cooling labor markets and inflation, asserting that
Long
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY / OVERALL UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE / 4HUSD JPY 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Supply Zone (154.685 - 154.975), This range is seen as a resistance level where the price might struggle to break above, as sellers are likely to dominate. If the price stabilizes in this zone, it suggests that a reversal could occur, potentially leading to a decline. Potential Decline to Demand Zone (150.331 - 149.075) , If the price reverses from the supply zone, the expectation is that it could drop to the demand zone, where buying pressure is higher, and the price might find support. Downtrend Confirmation , For a confirmed downtrend, prices would need to break below the demand zone, signaling strong selling pressure and possibly more declines. Uptrend Confirmation (157.135 - 157.873) , Conversely, if prices can break above the supply zone, it would signal a potential uptrend. The target in this case would be the next resistance zone, around 157.135 to 157.873.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 1, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains following the release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Jibun Bank and S&P Global on Friday. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Jibun Bank's headline PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.7 in September. This composite single-digit reading indicates that Japan's manufacturing output continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, with the pace of decline in output and new order inflows more pronounced. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy to achieve the price target in a sustainable and stable manner. Traders await the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 152.60, which is a pullback resistance Our take profit will be at 150.88, a pullback support level close to 61.8& Fibo retracement and 127.2% Fibo extension The stop loss will be at 154.64, above the 127.2% Fibo extension High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
USDJPY_109 2024.11.01 03:13:04 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.005 SL: 152.207 Entry Price: 152.321 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Undecided Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Same ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate assessments for short-term and long-term price movements of the USD/JPY currency pair. **Short-term analysis (next few days to a week):** * The Japanese Yen has strengthened after the BoJ's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, which may lead to a continuation of this trend in the short term. * The USD/JPY price is currently fluctuating between a support line and a resistance barrier, indicating a potential breakout or consolidation. * Given the recent highs and the yen's subsequent strengthening, I expect the USD/JPY price to **go down** in the short term, potentially testing the support line of the bullish channel. **Long-term analysis (next few weeks to months):** * The ongoing uncertainty over potential further rate hikes by the BoJ and the yen's recent strengthening may lead to a more significant correction in the USD/JPY pair. * The technical analysis using Elliott Wave theory suggests that the pair is at a critical juncture, which may indicate a potential reversal or continuation of the trend. * Considering the BoJ's decision to maintain current policy settings and the yen's recent gains, I expect the USD/JPY price to **stay the same** or potentially **go down** in the long term, as the yen's strengthening may continue to influence the pair. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new market data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the analysis, here are my conclusions: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The price is expected to go down, with a potential test of the support area near the 151.55 level. * However, technical indicators suggest a potential reversal and continuation of the current upward correction, which could lead to a rebound. * Overall, the short-term trend is uncertain and may experience consolidation. **Long-term (next few months to a year):** * The price is expected to stay the same or fluctuate within a range, with forecasts suggesting a range between ¥146 and ¥150 until the end of 2024. * Some analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US dollar against the yen, with a potential close at ¥145.555 in December. **Long-term (next few years):** * The price is expected to go up, with forecasts indicating a gradual strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. * The pair may rise to ¥173–¥179 by 2025 and could break above ¥220 by the end of the decade. Please note that these conclusions are based on the analysis of the provided data and should not be considered as investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and forecasts are subject to uncertainty. Result: ST=Down LT=Same Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided data, I will analyze the USD/JPY pair's price movement and provide a forecast for both short-term and long-term. **Short-term Analysis (next few days to a week)** * The pair is currently under bearish pressure, and the BoJ's decision to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% has added to the downward momentum. * The price is falling towards 152.00, and the forecasts suggest a continuation of this decline. * The solid resistance barrier at 153.65 is likely to hold, and the pair may struggle to break through this level in the short term. **Short-term Forecast:** Down **Long-term Analysis (next few weeks to months)** * The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing significant fluctuations, and the recent high of 153.30 was driven by the Japanese election results. * The pair is currently confined between the support line of a bullish channel and the resistance barrier at 153.65. * Although the BoJ's decision has added to the bearish momentum, the long-term trend is still bullish, and the pair may eventually break through the resistance barrier. **Long-term Forecast:** Up In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term due to the bearish momentum and the BoJ's decision. However, in the long term, the pair is expected to break through the resistance barrier and continue its upward trend. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit., Entry: 152.83 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 153.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 151.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets