usdinr up trend unsustainable on monthly chart.price keeps humping against the trendlne. there is also an evening star formation. the tl looks about to pop.
USDINR trade ideas
USD/INR - Possible Cypher, Keep an eye on 38.2% & 61.8% Fib CDPossible cypher formation on USD/INR pair.
CD leg in the making, but needs to climb and see a daily close above the trendline resistance and previous support (broken previously) around 66.7812
The initial targets for an expected bullish move remain at the 38.2% and then the 61.8% fib level for the CD leg.
The current daily candle is signalling indecision. Fundamentally, the press speculation on the Indian Governor Raghuram Rajan, and the GST (single tax) debate are the key points to take into consideration.
Globally, 'brexit' and a falling dollar are the key risks for the Indian currency.
The bullish argument fails if we see a break and close below the uptrend line around 66.45-47 zone.
Short USDINRFed hike possibility in June is remote now, INR likely to get stronger against dollar. Short for a target of 66.20
USDINR eyeing 67.50Nice rebound from a larger rising trend line..with daily RSI at 60.00 pointing upwards.
Long as long as support at 66.7+ is intact for target of 67.50 with stops below 66.50
USDINR LONG USDINR showing consolidation and potential breakout as it experiences strong support at 2 year support trendline. RR ratio 2.31. If prv high is broken 71 is possible.
USDINR: Promising downtrendUSDINR is right against the downtrend mode offering a very low risk opportunity to go short if we get a new daily low.
The first entry, has a tighter stop, so risk half on this one, and half on the larger 3 atr stop entry.
There are two possible targets, one at 65.44 and the other longer term target at 64.2882.
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Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#USDINR: Bear Conviction Apparent, Lows To Be Seen! #ForexTraders,
A nice trade here at a key action level. We have a nice bearish engulfing signal at the historical support resistance zone, and strong Fibonacci ratio confluence, reinforcing we have hit a resistance ceiling we can short off of.
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Tom
DX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India NiftyDX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India Nifty.
(This technical story connects you to GBPUSD-cable, USDINR & India Nifty).
Since 2011 March, DX has travelled in an impulsive manner till March 2015 & since March 2015—it has been travelling into consolidation mode & appears to be shaping out a triangle pattern who’s C-leg is done.
So, any movement above 95.50- could show us the way that D-leg has started & shall travel atleast 98—98.50 where it shall complete 61.8% of the B-leg.
Now, if you flip this triangle –you will realise that we have similar pattern in GBPUSD (Cable) –both are shaping out triangles where GBPUSD is about start d-leg in downside direction which will be confirmed once pair moves below 1.42979
DX & USDINR Connection-
As DX is shaping out a triangle & getting support of rising trendline & about to start d-leg of the triangle atleast for targets 98—98.50 …similarly USDINR is taking support of rising trendline & we could see another upside leg if 65.95 is intact on closing basis & should not fall below rising channel in that case we can look out for 68-68.50’s zone as target.
DX & India Nifty Connection- Why One should be cautious at current levels:
India Nifty has travelled quiet impulsively since 6825 to 7980- technically 7980 has been the resistance in early Jan 2016 & Nifty broke 1000 points—same resistance was seen in Dec 2015 as well & what a coincidence –we touched 7980 just recently in 18—22nd April 2016 week as well- giving us triple top formation which suggest that we should avoid taking long positions & should wait for clear signals. Clear bullish direction will arise when Nifty closes above 7980 & most important mark 8000 (7515 is key support level)
It looks like we are done with 5 waves upside since 6825 but yes we still don’t have any confirmation of going shorts and In coming days we should be careful & keep a watch on Dollar Index- which is looking bullish
Now, If Dollar Index starts moving above 95.50---probably it can cause pain to Indian equities & spill out the beans for the same.
Regards,
Abhishek H.Singh,CMT
USDIND - Bullish path for DOLLAR/RUPEE.Suggested price action at crucial level.
Happy trading!
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USD/INR bounces above 7DMA but finds resistance at 21DMATechnical glimpse:
The breakdown in USD/INR continues with a renewed trending bias.
The break out above of the resistance 66.68 zone (Jan breakout/21DMA) highlights the importance of the upward targets.
Otherwise, December lows with violations confirming a deeper corrective phase upto 65.96 levels.
Upswings are healthy so far confirmed by both leading and lagging oscillators, (see daily charts for RSI, stochastic's positive convergence with price spikes and MACD's attempts of bullish crossover).
The pair has edged up higher upto 66.71 in early Asian session but failed to sustain at higher levels, currently hovering exactly at resistance 66.68.
These daily upswings raises caution for aggressive bears in monthly terms, thus it would be wiser to wait for confirmation from EMAs if it shows bearish crossover.
If RSI curve drags above, then it is a sign making higher highs even though month has just begun as it has tested supports at 66.9257 levels. You can probably observe the historic levels that resembles the same pattern and moved way above.
Option Trade Tips:
In FX option market for USDINR regulated by NSE, please be noted that the highest open interest is observed in OTM strikes calls (i.e. 67 levels) on NSE (National Stock Exchange).
Hence, we advise for trading purpose, avoid options with lower volumes and lower open interest.
USD/INR vol-adjusted carry has jumped back to pre-tapering levels.
So, dubious bulls on hedging grounds, earn carry through 1M USD put spreads.
Enter USD/INR put spreads that offer pre-taper tantrum levels of vol-adjusted carry.
USDINR Analysis this pair by requestDear friend's
i don't trade this pair. and this is just my opinion and nothing else and this one is by TV users request. hope this analysis helpful for people who have trade this pair.
indian ruppie has been break the bullish movement. it seems ruppie pullback on the trend that break.then move to first support line that i draw.
kind regards,
psalehi
Indian rupee on gaining streak - FX derivatives trade ideasThe breakdown in USD/INR continues with a renewed trending bias.
The break of the 67/66.55 support zone (Jan breakout/July TL) highlights the importance of the 65.85 Dec low with violations confirming a deeper corrective phase.
USD/INR: The pair has edged up higher at 66.86 in early Asian session but failed to sustain at higher levels and ended with a bearish candle with current levels of 66.575. Slide below 66.6 has indicated that pullback is over and prices are likely to resume their primary downtrend.
Option Trade Tips:
USD/INR vol-adjusted carry has jumped back to pre-tapering levels.
Earn carry through 2M USD put spreads.
enter USD/INR put spreads that offer pre-taper tantrum levels of vol-adjusted carry.
EUR/INR: EUR edging lower to levels of 74.578 which is below 7 & 21DMA that indicating breach of downwards sloping support line and 21DMA. Daily RSI after testing resistance levels of 50 has slipped to 48 levels. Prices are likely to breach the support line and retest recent bottom of 73.72. So it is better go short in mid month futures.
GBP/INR: This pair violated the short-term uptrend line and ended well below the same. Visible downside gap is showing the strength of the bears in the pair. Thus, it is most likely that prices will break the recent bottom of 94.087 and test the lower levels of 94. So we like to maintain the same strategy using futures contracts as we did it in EURINR case, it is better go short in mid month futures ahead of Brexit scenario (UK referendum scheduled in June).
USDINR - WHAT NEXT (caution) After a very predictable pullback on extension zone we have
1) a massive divergence on 8h frame
2) a stop falling on the 0.618 fibs
3) just under the 0.5 fibs of the initial extension move
some support zone in think.
Maybe some pullback from here can happen watching closely
Trade your plan - if you dont have any, avoid to trade - stay safe
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(Warning. I am a private trader. I don't sell any signals, equipment or other sources of learning about forex. I am here to share ideas based on technical analysis to improve my ownForex practice. Trading forex is dangerous and can result in significant financial losses. So I am not responsible when the results of the positions to be taken on the basis of my charts since these constitute no basic signals but simply my own market analysis. As i always says, trade your plan and if you don't have any, avoid trading.)
USDINR is very well holding the channelUSD INR corrected heavily . The Trade deficit eased because of low crude oil price. But the crude oil will not stay at these levels and it will gain 50$ level no sooner. And Fed to increase interest rates this year we can expect much action ahead.
The pair is holding the channel as support since 02-2015 very well.So this is a opportunity to go long
BEARISH VIEW ON USD IN USD/INR CURRENCY PAIRUSD looks very weak against INR.
Trend has reversed in USD/INR and my big prediction is USD will fall to 62$ in next 2 years.
DISCLOSURE: I DO NOT HAVE ANY POSITIONS IN USD/INR CURRENCY PAIR.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS JUST MY PERSONAL VIEW BASED ON MY ANALYSIS AND I DO NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY OF ANY LOSSES INCURRED(IF ANY) BY ACTING ON ABOVE INFORMATION.
