EURUSD: Ready to Resume the Downtrend?I believe the correction in EURUSD has concluded, and the pair is poised to continue its downward movement. Consider entering short positions after a confirmed break below the 1.04218 level.
USDEUR trade ideas
EURUSD Short - 29 NovStill remaining a Bearish Outlook on EURUSD.
Price took out all the liquidity of the early sellers.
H4 had two retracement candles upwards.
I might be insisting on my bias and trading counter trend because if you noticed I marked a H1 upswing.
Targeting the top of the demand zone. Might have to review my decision making once again to firm up my plans rather than insist in trading a specific bias.
EURUSD Short - 28 Nov (#2)Still on EURUSD Short Bias.
M30 BOS, marked out supply zone. Short from below zone, SL above zone. Targetting a 1:2RR trade.
Trying out a M30 Entry model to see how things go.
EURUSD ShortH4 Swing structure is still bearish.
Price retraced into point of interest supply zone.
Pushed down and retraced back to Premium Zone above 0.5 Fib.
Shorting price towards the Weekend Gap. Not exactly following any exact plan, but RR was worth the shot.
Also the upward price action shows grab of liquidity that was built up below in the ranging candles.
EURUSD ShortM15 ChoCh downwards,
BOS after retracement on M15,
Moved back up to take liquidty after being unable to take bottom liquidity to move further downwards.
Now price seem ready for stronger downside movement.
EURUSD LongPrice Broke previous high wick on M15, ChoCh moving towards upside.
The retracement have also grabbed downside liquidity, making it ready for upward swing. Targeting high that broke structure.
FX:EURUSD
Decline in EURUSD
Yesterday, EURUSD dropped and reached 1,0458.
All current sell positions should have their risk removed.
Monitor how the price reacts around the next key support level at 1,0432.
If a rebound occurs, we could see a new rise above 1,0600.
This movement is against the main downtrend and should be traded with lower risk.
Larger fluctuations and a potential reversal are expected on Friday during the news.
EUR/USD: Strategic Short Opportunities UnveiledThe EUR/USD pair is entering a clear bearish correction phase on the 1-hour timeframe. With selling pressure from the OB Zone and strong bearish signals from the EMA indicators, the price is expected to continue moving towards lower support levels.
Suggested Trading Strategy
Entry Points (Short Entry):
Open a short position when the price slightly retraces to the OB Zone (~1.0522-1.0538).
Alternatively, consider entering a short trade if the price breaks below the nearest support level without retracing.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1 at 1.0460.
TP2 at 1.0385.
Stop Loss (SL):
Place the stop loss above the OB Zone (~1.0540), as this is where the price may trigger an unexpected reversal.
EURUSD 1HR CHART UPDATEThe euro (EUR) has shown mixed performance recently, with potential for further pullbacks depending on evolving economic factors. Market sentiment is cautious due to persistent weaknesses in the Eurozone's manufacturing and services sectors, especially in key economies like Germany and France. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a dovish stance, including possible rate cuts in the near term, which could limit upward momentum for the euro.
On the other hand, if U.S. Federal Reserve policies lean toward easing interest rates in 2024 due to moderating inflation, the dollar could weaken, providing some support to the euro. Analysts forecast the EUR/USD pair could reach a range of 1.15 to 1.21 by late 2024, but downside risks remain if Eurozone economic recovery falters or if the ECB signals more aggressive monetary easing.
This scenario underscores the importance of closely monitoring central bank policies and economic indicators for trading or investment decisions.
EURUSD Next possible moveSAXO:EURUSD
Title
"EUR/USD Intraday Analysis: Bearish Pressure Resumes | Post-NFP Decline"
Market Context
"EUR/USD faces selling pressure today, reversing gains from last week. The pair has broken below key intraday support levels, driven by a stronger USD following Friday's NFP report. The dollar gains traction as the market leans towards a more hawkish Fed outlook."
Technical Analysis
*"Today’s sell momentum is confirmed by multiple bearish signals:
Price Action: The pair broke below the 1.0520 intraday support, creating lower highs and lower lows on the H1 chart.
EMA Bearish Crossover: Price is trading below the 20 and 50 EMAs, signaling potential further downside.
RSI: Dropped below 45, indicating increasing bearish momentum.
MACD: Negative histogram bars have expanded, confirming downward pressure.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0500 (critical), 1.0475 (next potential target).
Resistance: 1.0535 (intraday), 1.0555 (major). A move above 1.0555 would invalidate the bearish setup."*
News Context
"Upcoming: Market awaits U.S. ISM Services PMI later today, which could further support the dollar if results exceed expectations.
Previous: NFP data on Friday indicated a resilient U.S. labor market, bolstering Fed rate hike speculation."
Call to Action
"Do you expect EUR/USD to test lower support levels, or is this sell-off a temporary correction? Share your views in the comments!"
Eurusd technical bearishDaily bias is bearish
Fundamentally align with EUR weakening and USD still strong
H4 bias is bearish. Double top pattern formed. With break of support level from H4.
H1 retest H4 broken support level in green.
H1 went into consolidation.
H1 price action broke out of consolidation to continue bearish movement.
Short from H1 broken support level with SL above consolidation.
TP next swing low for continuation.
Summary of Global Financial and Political Developments 02.12.24Summary of Global Financial and Political Developments (December 2, 2024):
Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy:
- Potential Interest Rate Cuts:
- John Williams (New York Fed President) indicated that monetary policy remains restrictive and future actions depend on incoming data. He expects inflation to decrease to 2% and anticipates U.S. GDP growth around 2.5% in 2024.
- Christopher Waller (Fed Governor) expressed support for a rate cut in December due to concerns about inflation stalling above 2%. He noted that the labor market is balanced.
- Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President) stated that the economy is on solid footing and is open-minded about upcoming policy decisions, acknowledging uncertainties in the labor market.
Market Movements:
- U.S. Stock Markets:
- The S&P 500 closed at its 54th record high this year, driven by technology stocks like Tesla and Apple.
- The Nasdaq 100 rose over 1%.
- Treasury Yields:
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.22% as traders anticipated a potential rate cut.
- Currency Markets:
- The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and yen amid political uncertainties in Europe and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.
- Commodity Prices:
- Crude oil prices fluctuated due to OPEC uncertainty and a stronger dollar, with WTI crude settling at $68.10 per barrel.
OPEC and Oil Production:
- OPEC+ sources indicated that the group is likely to extend oil output cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
- Iraq halted operations at the Basra oil refinery due to overloaded fuel oil storage tanks.
- OPEC crude output rose by 120,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day in November.
Political Developments:
- France:
- Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced potential no-confidence votes over the government's budget proposal.
- The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to oppose the budget.
- The government made concessions by agreeing to scrap plans to reduce medication reimbursements.
- French bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield briefly trading above Greece's for the first time.
- The CAC 40 stock index dropped by 1.1% in early trading due to political uncertainties.
- United Kingdom:
- Prime Minister Starmer named Sir Chris Wormald as the new cabinet secretary and head of the civil service.
- South Africa:
- Clarified that BRICS has no plans to create a new currency, responding to threats of tariffs from Donald Trump.
Geopolitical Tensions:
- Middle East:
- Israel attacked targets in Lebanon after Hezbollah launched missiles toward Israeli territory, violating the ceasefire.
- Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of severe consequences in the Middle East if Gaza hostages are not released before January 20.
- Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias entered Syria from Iraq to support government forces against rebels.
- Syrian and Russian air forces conducted strikes on rebel-held positions.
-U.S.-China Relations:
- The U.S. tightened export controls on AI memory and semiconductor tools to China to curb technological advancements.
- China's Commerce Ministry condemned the U.S. measures as economic coercion.
- The Chinese yuan weakened to its lowest level since July.
Economic Data Releases:
- United States:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI for November rose to 48.4, still indicating contraction.
- Construction spending increased by 0.4% in October.
- Eurozone:
- Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 45.2 in November.
- Unemployment rate held steady at 6.3% in October.
- China:
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.5 in November, signaling expansion.
- Australia:
- Retail sales grew by 0.6% month-over-month in October, surpassing forecasts.
- Building approvals increased by 4.2% in October.
- Canada:
- Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 from 51.1, indicating improved manufacturing activity.
European Central Bank (ECB) Actions:
- ECB officials indicated that further rate cuts are likely in December due to persistent inflation concerns.
- Olli Rehn and Yannis Stournaras suggested that rate cuts may continue.
- Martin Kazaks mentioned that the ECB might discuss a larger rate cut but acknowledged high uncertainty.
- ECB's Philip Lane projected that inflation would reach a sustainable 2% in 2025 and noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
Other Notable Events:
- Donald Trump nominated Warren Stephens as U.S. Ambassador to the UK.
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached 80 out of 100, indicating extreme greed among investors.
- China's President Xi Jinping called for the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative.
- China's central bank (PBOC) signaled plans to continue an accommodative monetary policy and reduce financing costs for enterprises and residents.
- Japan's government bond market dysfunction eased, according to a Bank of Japan survey.
Conclusion:
- Global markets are experiencing volatility due to a mix of monetary policy signals, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties.
- Anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is affecting bond yields and currency valuations.
- Escalating tensions in the Middle East and ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes are contributing to market uncertainty.
- Political developments in France are impacting European markets and the euro.
- Mixed economic data across major economies highlight the uneven pace of global economic recovery.
- Investors are closely monitoring these developments for potential impacts on global financial markets and economic growth prospects.
#eurusd #elliottwave long buy setup wave c of b 3Dec24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
EUR/USD Under Pressure!The EUR/USD exchange rate has recently declined, dropping below the 1.0500 support level. This movement was driven by renewed demand for the US dollar and political concerns in France, where fears of a potential government collapse could hinder efforts to reduce the country's budget deficit.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.75%-5.00%, aiming to bring inflation closer to its 2% target. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone, indicating that there is no urgent need for further cuts in the short term. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged after its last cut in October, which brought the deposit rate to 3.25%. Despite this, inflation concerns persist, with wage growth in the Eurozone accelerating to 5.42% in the third quarter.
President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies add further uncertainty to the market. His recent demand for BRICS nations to refrain from developing or supporting new alternative currencies to the US dollar—under threat of 100% tariffs—has contributed to the dollar's strength.
This stance could fuel inflation in the United States, potentially prompting the Fed to adopt a more aggressive approach, resulting in further strengthening of the dollar and additional pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
EURUSD 1D ShortEURUSD
📉 1D Short
💰ENTRY: 1.05000
👎STOP LOSS: 1.05973
TP TARGETS
⏰TP1
⏰TP2
⏰TP3
✅ 1. Monthly Time Frame: Price has been breaking bearish and trending below the 10, 50, 200 EMAs.
✅ 2. Weekly Time Frame: Price has been breaking bearish and trending below the 10, 50, 200 EMAs.
✅ 3. Daily Time Frame: Price has made a valid correction into the 10 EMA.
✅ 4. Price has made a Swing high Engulfing candle below the 50ema.
This is a great example of my systematic system.
