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Fundamental Market Analysis for December 06, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD is declining to 1.0575 at the start of the European session on Friday. Concerns over US tariffs on European goods and rising bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the Euro against the US Dollar. This Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage. The single currency remains on the defensive as traders are concerned about potential tariff policies on all goods imported into the US, which could undermine the Eurozone economy. In addition, the ECB is widely expected to cut the interest rate at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. All but two of the 75 economists surveyed believe the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Dec. 12. On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with the top priority being parliament's passage of the 2025 budget. Any signs of political uncertainty in France could contribute to the euro's decline. Abroad, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs at its December meeting could put pressure on the dollar and limit EUR/USD's decline. Markets now estimate the probability that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point at its December 17-18 meeting at 70.1%. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0570, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD: Risk 10-20 pips for a big returnHello traders. THIS IS JUST AN IDEA, NOT INVESTMENT OR TRADING ADVICE The fundamental backdrop for a bearish EUR/USD continuation stays unchanged in my opinion. This morning's reaction to new jobless claims was probably a knee jerk reaction since the release is only 24 hours away from NFP data and two weeks away from the FOMC rate decision. And the BOJ decision. And a week away from the ECB decision. A lot of upcoming risk events. Price also tested the daily high at 1.05868 which was the last daily high before price had reversed from the daily high at 1.05963. There was an initial doji candle on the 4H chart but the next two candle up until the daily close retested the high without exceeding it. Is this a clear reversal again? Not at all. There are three levels of interest above 1.05868: Daily high at 1.0596 Daily high at 1.0609 ( also the 0.382 fib level on the monthly chart) Two daily closes at 1.0622 The October NFP print of 12K was was attributed to harsh winter storms. This has raised the bar considerably for tomorrow's data. Will it just be about the headline or will a deep dive into the data tell a different story? Will investors look at the average of the the two months? There is no clarity, so proceed with caution. The German Industrial Production print at 07:00 GMT may be market moving especially since the EURO simply shrugged off the political drama in France. However, volatility can be very rewarding if one has the stomach to deal with the whiplash. It sure beats staring at a monitor for hours on end and still getting stopped out. Might as well make it data based and get stopped out instantaneously. On this topic: I make good use of the alerts in TV on both my desktop, laptop and phone. It prevents the constant glancing at the charts. A possibility is to set an entry order at 1.0622 to short the pair. The stop loss? 10-20 pips? OR half a position at 1.0610 and half at 1.0622. It is a very personal preference BUT one thing is clear: keep the position size and stop loss modest as a ratio of your equity. Finally, the technical indicators point to maybe just a continuation of the range for now. As for the cup and handle pattern, I stand corrected if it is not valid. Best of luck.
Short
by jvrfxalerts
5
Comprehensive Summary of the Day's Events - December 5, 2024Comprehensive Summary of the Day's Events - December 5, 2024 Global Financial Markets and Economic Developments 1. United States: - The Federal Reserve's funding loans decreased to $17.1 billion for the week ending December 4, down from $18.5 billion previously. - Discount-window loans fell slightly to $2.43 billion from $2.5 billion. - Initial jobless claims rose to a one-month high of 224,000, with continued claims decreasing slightly to 1.871 million. Economists anticipate November's nonfarm payrolls to reflect a rebound. - Treasury yields held steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.18%, while short-term Treasuries underperformed. - The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 by 0.3%, and the Dow by 0.6% as markets awaited critical jobs data. Meme stocks such as GameStop surged on social media speculation. - The US trade deficit narrowed to $73.8 billion in October, with trade figures showing improvement in key areas. 2. Asia: - South Korea's October current account surplus decreased to $9.784 billion from $11.12 billion. GDP for Q3 remained unchanged at 0.1% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. - Japanese markets were influenced by comments from BoJ Board Member Nakamura, who emphasized a data-dependent approach to potential rate hikes and warned about weak consumer spending. - Australia's trade surplus exceeded expectations, reaching AUD 5.953 billion in October, with exports rising 3.6%. 3. Europe: - France faced political turmoil after Prime Minister Barnier's government lost a no-confidence vote. President Macron announced plans to name a new prime minister shortly while reiterating his commitment to fulfilling his mandate. - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.5% MoM in October, with YoY growth at 1.9%, slightly above forecasts. - Germany reported weaker-than-expected industrial orders (-1.5% MoM) and mixed construction PMI data. - The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps in December to 3.00%, with further cuts anticipated into 2025. Energy and Commodities - OPEC+ concluded its meeting with a decision to delay a planned oil output increase to April 2025. Oil production cuts will gradually unwind through September 2026. Russia and Saudi Arabia's quotas were confirmed for the next year. - Crude oil prices dipped, with Brent settling at $72.09 per barrel and WTI at $68.30 per barrel. - Natural gas inventories fell by 30 billion cubic feet, below forecasts, reflecting seasonal demand dynamics. Cryptocurrency and Technology - Bitcoin surged past $100,000, buoyed by President-elect Trump's nomination of a crypto-friendly SEC chair. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicated "Extreme Greed" at 84/100. Political Developments 1. France: - Polls indicated 54% of French citizens want President Macron to resign amid fiscal and political uncertainty. The far-right leader Marine Le Pen proposed alliances to unseat Macron's government. - The crisis may delay France's efforts to reduce its budget deficit. 2. South Korea: - Political tensions heightened as President Yoon faced potential impeachment proceedings, impacting market sentiment. 3. Middle East: - Israel reportedly updated Hamas on a proposal for hostage releases and a ceasefire, mediated by Egypt. Other Key Updates - China's central bank injected liquidity into the financial system while strengthening the yuan's fixing. - Australian household spending rose 2.8% YoY in October, signaling resilience in consumer activity. - Fitch Ratings warned of rising US inflation risks due to robust consumer spending and upcoming tariff hikes. This summary encapsulates the economic, political, and financial narratives driving global markets and sentiment today.
by InvestMate
4
EUR.USD - Sell - 15 minsIdea Title: EUR/USD Short Position: Double Top Rejection and Liquidity Targeting Market Context: EUR/USD is presenting a bearish setup after a rejection from a significant resistance zone near 1.06100. A double-top formation has been identified, suggesting a reversal towards lower liquidity levels. The pair has failed to sustain higher highs, which aligns with a potential retracement towards the daily support. Trade Setup Details: Entry: 1.05839 Stop Loss (SL): 1.06102 Take Profit (TP): 1.05263 Technical Analysis: Double Top Formation: Price action shows clear rejection from the resistance zone, forming a double top at 1.06100, a key reversal signal. Key Resistance and Support Levels: Resistance: 1.06100 marks the ADR+ level, a significant barrier for bulls. Support Target: 1.05263 aligns with AMR- levels, a probable liquidity pool and the next logical target for sellers. Bearish Momentum: Following the rejection from ADR+, bearish momentum is building, with candles showing strong downside intent. Risk-to-Reward (R:R): This trade offers a favorable R:R ratio, targeting a high-probability zone while maintaining a tight stop loss. Trade Justification: The rejection from the key resistance zone, combined with a failure to establish new highs, signals potential downside movement. Liquidity below 1.05300 and the AMR- level at 1.05263 make this a viable target area for bears to exploit. Trading Plan: Entry Trigger: Ensure price confirms rejection from 1.05839 with sustained bearish candles before entering. Risk Management: The stop loss at 1.06102 is strategically placed above the double top, minimizing the risk of false breakouts. Exit Strategy: Take profit at 1.05263, where the price is likely to face buyer interest or consolidation. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and assess your risk before trading.
Short
by tamrobert20
Bull run for eur/usd?So if we look at the higher time frames, we will understand that eur/usd is currently hitting a very very significant level in which the bulls are interested in and from the looks of it, in the last 60 days, more like 20 actually, they have been selling massively and also going lower to the 1hr time frame, you would notice something like a shift especially in the market structure and well, you have tins of eqaul highs just sitting there to be taken out by the whales. There is also going to be a trace of possible short term range but i currently expect the bulls tot take over reagrdles of dxy
by Amazoe
EURUSD - 3 Tops Pointing For A RejectionEURUSD has completed the Bullish move as highlighted in previous analysis and despite 3rd attempt, failed to break the resistance. If we have a 3rd Top on 4H, we may see a strong rejection which could open lower levels. For Bulls to cotinue, they must have a sustained break above the resistance. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Short
by MarketsPOV
1
EURUSD BULLISH CONTINUATION We identified a potential reversal signal in the EUR/USD market, as a W pattern (Double Bottom) has formed. After a recent decline, the price has bounced off a strong support level, creating two distinct lows. The W pattern suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum, and a reversal might be imminent. Key levels to watch: - Resistance: 1.05903 (previous high) - Support: 1.04818 (W pattern low) A break above the resistance level could confirm the reversal, while a break below the support level might invalidate the pattern. I'll be monitoring the price action closely for further developments. BEST WISHES TOM 😎
Long
by Tom_Trades_670
4