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U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar

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USDAUD trade ideas

AUD/USD Reaches New Low: Technicals Highlight Bearish TrendThe AUD/USD pair has sunk below 0.65000, hitting a low of 0.64529, reflecting a persistent bearish trend for the Australian dollar. This decline aligns with the strong US dollar index at 106.4 amidst robust post-election performance. The RBA's steady interest rate at 4.35% and lackluster employment growth in Australia indicate ongoing economic pressures that may limit the Aussie’s recovery. Meanwhile, anticipated rate cuts by the Fed could introduce USD vulnerabilities, adding complexity to the pair's future trajectory. Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank policies in both regions for potential market shifts.
by tastyfx
5
AUDUSD Continues Downtrend with High-Probability Weekly FVG AUDUSD has maintained a strong downtrend, recently wicking into a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that previously broke structure, confirming this FVG as high-probability. The recent close below the weekly FVG reinforces a bearish bias, indicating that sellers are still in control. The next target for this move is the sellside liquidity at 0.63541. This setup aligns with the prevailing trend, making it a high-probability continuation to the downside. Always remember: DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Short
by INSIDER_INTEL
AUDUSD tries to claw back ahead of Jobs release25 minutes until AU jobs data drops: The market is looking for +25k jobs and for the U/R to remain at 4.1%. #AUDUSD is trading at .6492/94, trying to claw its way higher after closing at an almost seven-month low. The risks there appear to be a test of multi-week support in the .6360/50 area. The AU rates market is pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut for December and has pushed back expectations of a first full 25bp RBA rate cut until August 2025.
by IG_com
AUD/USD sinks to new lows as focus shifts to Aussie jobs dataWhether you’re talking price action or momentum, AUD/USD looks terrible on the daily, taking out the intersection of the US election lows and downtrend support with ease on Wednesday. Momentum is with the bears; RSI (14) has cut its uptrend like a hot knife through butter while MACD has crossed over from above, confirming the bearish signal. Selling rips and bearish breaks may prove more successful than buying dips in this environment. The short setup would be to sell here or wait for a potential squeeze towards .6513 as traders anticipate another stellar labour force report – there have been plenty of those recently. That would allow for a tight stop to be placed above the level, providing appealing risk-reward for those targeting a retest of key uptrend support at .6375. The last time the Aussie interacted with the level during the Japanese market meltdown of August, it resulted in significant bullish reversal, underlining its technical importance. As such, it looms as an obvious target. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
9
Another update to existing positionAnother update not live call out, so focus on management. First Fundamental reasoning. 1. Monetary Policy Divergence - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed remains relatively hawkish, prioritising high rates to control inflation. The strength of the U.S. economy has allowed the Fed to maintain or potentially even raise rates further, enhancing USD’s appeal compared to currencies from countries with more accommodative policies. -Reserve Bank of Australia : The RBA has adopted a more cautious approach, recently pausing on rate hikes due to concerns about slowing domestic growth and the impact of high rates on household debt. This divergence between the Fed's high-rate policy and the RBA’s reluctance to hike makes the AUD less attractive against the USD. 2. Economic Data Disparities The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with strong employment data and steady consumer spending supporting USD strength. As economic fundamentals remain solid, investor confidence in USD assets is sustained, putting further pressure on AUD/USD. Australia’s economic indicators suggest a slowdown, particularly in consumer spending and business confidence. With inflation showing signs of moderating and wage growth remaining contained, the RBA has limited scope to increase rates without risking a significant economic slowdown. This weakens the AUD as it signals limited support from domestic fundamentals. 3. Commodity Demand and China’s Economic Slowdown. Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, particularly to China. With China’s growth decelerating amid property sector challenges and lower global demand, the demand for Australian exports such as iron ore and coal has weakened, exerting downward pressure on the AUD. Commodity Price Vulnerability. The slowing Chinese economy not only reduces demand for Australian commodities but also adds to the AUD’s vulnerability given its correlation with global commodity cycles. 4. Risk Sentiment and Safe Haven Flows Global Risk Aversion. In periods of increased risk aversion, such as recent geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, the USD is favored over the AUD due to its status as a safe-haven currency. The AUD, being a risk-sensitive currency, tends to underperform against the USD during such times. 5. Market Sentiment and Positioning Bearish Positioning on AUD Current market sentiment shows a bearish bias toward AUD/USD, reflecting global investors’ preference for the USD amid broader economic concerns. Sentiment indicators and COT data also show increasing short positions on the AUD, further justifying a short position. Technical analysis, my confidence rank was still mid 80s, LTF did have good bear strength display plus the overall Dollar strength justified early entry. This week conclusion on technical side confidence above 90% so it is with the fundamentals. Updates will follow as the next events unfold
Short
by JureBrumen
AUDUSD What Next? BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for AUDUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.6508 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 0.6573 Recommended Stop Loss - 0.6475 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
AUDUSD Sell the dead cat bounce.The AUDUSD pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity last time on our bearish signal (September 18, see chart below) as it got rejected marginally above the 1.5 year Resistance Zone and broke below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line): This is so far consistent with all three previous sell sequences that reached the 1D RSI oversold (30.00) barrier. If the symmetry continues to hold, then we should be expecting at least a +2.62% counter-trend rebound and then another rejection towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we remain bearish on AUDUSD but need to move our Target a bit higher at 0.64500 (despite the gravity of the 2-year Higher Lows trend-line and the Support Zone) in order to match the 1.382 Fib. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
AUD/USD ! November 13 ! Support H4 buy now AUDUSD trend forecast November 13, 2024 The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth day in a row on Wednesday, pressured by disappointing Australia Wage Price Index data and optimism around "Trump trades." Despite this, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish stance following last week’s interest rate hold, with a focus on restrictive policy due to persistent inflation and a strong job market, likely helped limit further losses for the AUD. Price analysis: Support H4 -very solid USD - DXY: correction soon /// BUY AUDUSD : zone 0.65300 - 0.65000 SL: 0.64500 TP: 50 - 150 - 300 pips (0.68000) Safe and profitable trading
Long
by Moon-ForexAcademy
1
AUDUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe for more content. Key Points - Dollar strength continues with the “Trump trade” and rising U.S. Treasury yields. - Expectations are growing that the euro may fall to near-parity levels as Germany heads toward early elections. - The eurozone could face significant setbacks if tariffs are imposed due to Trump’s election. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the December rate cut could be paused if inflation is higher than anticipated. - Uncertainty surrounds the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut path, with reports that Japanese investors are selling Australian bonds. - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers remarked that “Australia is more resilient to trade wars than other countries.” Key Economic Data Schedule - November 13: U.S. October CPI - November 14: U.S. October PPI, Australia October Unemployment Rate - November 15: Fed Chair Powell's Speech, Japan Q3 GDP, U.K. Q3 GDP, U.S. October Retail Sales AUD/USD Chart Analysis The AUD/USD is currently in a downtrend, with a likely decline to the 0.64000 level after breaking below 0.66000. A rebound from the 0.64000 level could lead to a climb back up to the 0.69000 level. However, if the support level is breached, there’s a high chance of a drop to the 0.62000 level. If the downward momentum intensifies, we will swiftly develop a new strategy.
Short
by shawntime_academy