US30Y trade ideas
Bonds to rally In a consolidation triangle looking for a trend continuation as we complete an ABC up to the wave E of the triangle. Target levels & times are the red zone.
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 30YR DAILY ANALYSISHi friends
the daily chart of this market shows with a strong probability of a downward trend in the coming days but we must at the same time be vigilant of reversal of this market towards the opposite direction
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#US #Government #Bonds 30Y #Forecast #ShortWe are possibly looking at (and forecasting) a 3-touch sell-off on the US Government Bonds 30Y daily chart around resistance at 98'04'3.
Sell-off in about 1-14 days time.
R/R = 5.79% approx.
ridethepig | End Game in the Cycle📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause.
The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it creates the "following subtle trap" where the belly of the curve begins to move towards the front end which then brings the 30Y with it.
It is worth pointing out where other countries in the world are as there is little divergence on the rates differentials now:
📍 Spain
📍 Singapore
📍 Canada
📍 UK
📍 Japan
📍 Germany
There is no reason why the US cannot see a retracement back to 0.9% / 0.8% levels ... Watch for the next dominos in Equities and Gold based on deep knowledge of the flows as we can call it. More risk to come.
The Bond Market IS Forward Looking..The Bond Market IS Forward Looking.. I digress for time restraint reasons today.
19:33:44 (UTC)
Mon Jun 1, 2020
S&P500 & (30Y10Y)- Overlayed30Y yield - 10Y yield Overlayed w/ the SPX
For record,
19:36:39 (UTC)
Mon Jun 1, 2020
US30Y - following the path of the previously forecasted uptrend US30-year bond yields are following the uptrend that we forecasted in the post of April 28. It is currently in the final stages of minor wave 1 which is part of the 5 impulse waves that should lead yields to the area surrounding 2.44%, where intermediate wave 3 should be completed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
US30Y Looking like it wants higherWith the market looking ready to accept risk again, and with the economic outlook improving, I think we have a nice set of circumstances for bond prices to come back to reality and come down a bit from their stratospheric levels. That said, this is the yield chart, so that move would be represented by US30Y going up because prices move inversely to yields.
Not going to trade it, but something I keep an eye on and I am thinking we'll see bond prices fall in the coming days into next week, barring any unforeseen news headline or development sparks a reversal in mindset.
US30Y - US long-term interest rates first stop at 2.44%US30Y finished intermediate wave 2 down and it started its way up to the most probable first stop at 2.44%. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
US30 CREATED H&S PATTERN US30 H4
-CREATED H&S PATTERN
-NEED NICK LINE BREAK OUT
-WAIT FOR SELL
=SELL SIGNAL
Very limited support leftThe green lines represent support/resistance since 1988, if those support failed, the entire concept will fail. Lebanon government announced default this weekend.
US 30 YR AT KEY LEVELLooking at 30 year UST yields key levels are at 2.2% and 2.4% on the weekly chart.
Break and close above 2.4% could indicate we have bottomed, but close below 2.2% and we're probably heading lower, meaning the rally in yields (sell-off in bonds) was a retracement of the heavy buying buying before the rally in treasuries continues.
On the fly...For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps.
For the Chartpack today we have...
US 2s5s Curve :
US 2s10s Curve :
US 2s5s Curve:
The maps are crystal clear for US10Y Yields:
Highly recommend all those tracking Fixed Income to make note of the 2s5s10s and 2s5s30s " Fly " both breaking out with markets positioning ahead for 2020. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle and Fixed Income.
