10y Bond Yield vs SPYSince September 16, the 10Y bond yield and SPY are on the same up trend. What happens to SPY if 10Y down again?
US10Y trade ideas
US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldDaily chart on 10-year rates, be careful, we have just crossed the line above the 200-period simple moving average.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Big Bottom in BondsUS10Y/US02Y vs TLT & US10Y
Bonds tend to bottom at the same level of the ratio of 10 year yields to 2 year yields. Should we be using the ratio of long and short term yields instead of the difference to trade the Bond Market?
Not a good look for US BondI see Bullish Continuation pattern is in the forming for $TVC:US10Y.
This indicates that Bearish in US Bond is still lurking and waiting to appear in the global stage.
US 10Y Yields - 2nd Bullish Leg Up To Equalibrium?Based on the last post on Yields, I was projecting a draw towards equilibrium; 4.169% with the possibility for a short term retracement down to the NWOG highly likely.
I would like to see the neighbouring FVG respected with the last line of defence @ 4.026% held throughout next week
US 10Y TREASURY: retail sales eased the sentimentThe US Treasury market was under influence of the posted data for the Retail Sales in the US in September, as a potential add-on to the total inflation in the country. Released data were in line with the market consensus, as the indicator was higher by 0,4% in September, leading to yearly increase of 1,7%. Without other posted data which would add to the potential move of the inflation in the US, the 10Y US yields eased a bit, and tested the 4,0% level. Still, at Friday trading session, yields ended the week a bit higher, at the level of 4,075%.
In the week ahead there are no macro data scheduled for a release, which could point to potential inflation movements, in which sense, it could be expected a relatively calmer week when US yields are in question. There is some probability that yields could test the 4,0% level for one more time, while odds are quite low for the move toward the upside.
Only Three Times: Great Depression, Nixon Shock, NowThe quarterly RSI of the ratio of Bond Yields to Equities has only reached the current level twice in the last 100 years, once during the Great Depression and once during the Nixon Shock years.
Bond Divergences: ECB Under Pressure from FedThe European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to cut interest rates for the third time this year, prompted by the surprise 50 basis point cut announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Although the ECB had planned to wait until December to make another cut, recent economic data, such as weak PMIs and falling inflation in the Eurozone, have forced its hand, making an October cut inevitable. As the Fed slows its cutting cycle, the ECB seems trapped with no choice but to press ahead, despite the risks of further euro depreciation and rising inflationary pressures. The divergence between the monetary policies of the two central banks also reflects a widening gap in bond markets.
In this context, the gap between US and German bonds continues to widen. US 10-year bond yields have risen sharply, while in Germany the increase has been minimal, reaching a gap of 183 basis points, the widest since July. According to Goldman Sachs, this gap could reach 200 points in the coming months, driven by solid growth in the US economy, while the eurozone continues to struggle with weakness in Germany and France. This has led more investors to opt for U.S. bonds, exacerbating pressure on the ECB to lower rates.
Elsewhere, in Asia, bond inflows declined in September, with a net total of $4.99 billion, well down from $14.09 billion in the previous month. This slowdown reflects investor caution about possible Fed rate cuts and uncertainties related to the US elections. However, the inclusion of Asian bonds in global indices could revitalize inflows in the future as investors seek new opportunities in the region.
Looking at the performance of US, German and Eurozone 10-year bonds, we can note that the first two have followed relatively similar candlestick trajectories, while the Eurozone bond has experienced greater fluctuations and volatility. This has generated significant disparities, including relevant price gaps in mid-July. If we compare the US bond, which currently trades at 4.038%, with the German bond, which stands at 2.208%, we see that, although Germany is trying to keep pace with the US, Europe is not helping to boost German bond yields. In fact, the Eurozone bond appears to be moving steadily in the opposite direction to the other two. It will be interesting to see whether the German bond continues to replicate the performance of the U.S. bond or whether it starts to correlate with the U.S. bond.
In summary, central banks in Europe and the US are on divergent paths, which is reflected in the bond market, with the ECB facing difficult decisions and global investors readjusting their strategies depending on monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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BTC : riseUS10Y: down
S&P500: down
NDX: down
DJI: down
So where did the MONEY go?
"Run Forrest Run"...
INCOMING LOWER HIGHS!!When they bring the talking heads on TV and make them say: "we haven't seen anything yet, yields are going higher!", you know it's time to buy them!
Every single time they do this, bonds yields are either making higher highs or very close to those "local tops".
It was identical prior to October 7th of last year. Look it up as a reference.
If you don't like that relation, how about you look up Ray Dalio 'warning us, poor naive investors' to NOT BUY LONG TERM NOTES.
Yields going up is nothing but a big lie in my moronic opinion.
This is the next 'Lower high' and I think we're now heading with clean air down to 3.26% on the 10yr note.
Support for long bonds achievedLooks like we're starting to see a clean bounce off of the trendline -- this is the market deciding that bonds aren't going to fall off a cliff because the inflation boogieman is a short term scare, not a shift in trend. Now is the time to load up on TLT. NFA.
Why the US 10-Year Yield Deserves Close AttentionThe 10-year US Treasury yield, at its highest since July, has mostly moved sideways this year. However, the weekly chart reveals a potential falling wedge pattern. If yields close above 4.53%, it could signal a push towards new highs. Initial resistance is at 4.18% (200-day moving average) and 4.24% (55-week moving average). Markets expect a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in November, but investors are watching key economic data, and Fed comments for further insights.
Keep this on your radar, because while the market holds above 3.50, this longer term potentially bullish pattern will remain valid.
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US 10Y TREASURY: driven by inflationThe inflation data were the ones that the market was watching closely during the previous week. The September inflation came just a bit higher from the market estimate. While core inflation remained elevated at 0,3% for the month and 3,3% for the year, the inflation figures were standing at 0,2% in September and 2,4% for the year. As inflation is holding modestly above Feds target of 2,0%, the markets are anticipating the next Feds move. Whether they will cut in November or maybe, the next cut will be postponed for December. This question came after the Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted in an interview that the higher inflation data might impact his opinion to skip a rate cut in November.
The US Treasury yields reacted accordingly during the previous week, where 10Y US yields were pushed to the levels above the key 4,0% level. The highest weekly yields reached were at 4,1%, however, they slipped modestly toward the 4,073% at Friday's trading session. As the market is digesting the latest inflation, it should be expected for yields to calm down a bit in the week ahead. The next target of markets might be to test levels below the 4,0%, where 3,9% or even 3,8% might be the next targets.
US BONDS The big market plyers has changed trends fundamentally and technically , i fell this is a pull back to the upside before a massive sell
US 10Y Yields - Sharpshooting Premium Prices In The Near Future We have seen a draw up to buyside liquidity but with price still trading inside of a discount, it's only a matter of time premium prices present itself... right??
Eyes on 4.169%
$TNX The little Yield that could. You think the Great Yield slaughter of the 40 years was something; just feast your eyes on the great Yield breakout, eons in the making.
In our next predicted cycle of disastrous economic, but not all that surprising or unexpected economic events; we will now see the Great Bond Slaughter coupled with treasury yields sky high. An event the likes of which the world has never seen.
As you can see the TVC:TNX is flagging on all high time frame charts and has several upper targets to reach before then top is in.
Our next target being a measured move at 8%.
Since we called this breakout 2 years ago, it has not failed to disappoint.
You might also want to check out the TVC:VIX and TVC:DXY monthly/quarterly/yearly charts.
When the shit goes down, you better get ready.
~Cypress Hill
Inverted hammer at the top of the 10Y channelIf the inverted hammer on 10/10 is a reliable indicator, then today may mark a local peak in long yields as we bounce off the top of the channel.
US 10Y Yields - Low Resistance Liquidity Run4 consecutive days of bullish price action with the potential to draw further up inside of the Feb 24 new week opening gap.
Short-term retracement is expected during conditions similar to now and would like to gee the NWOG for this week (still in a premium) filled with the last point of no return being a daily candle body closure below 3.946%
10yr possible false breakoutPossible false breakout US 10yr yields and this is a risk for risk sensitive currencies like USDJPY and USDCHF
10Y bonds seeking support from April-July channelFrom April to July the 10 year Treasury yield was in a downward channel. It broke below that, retested the resistance-now-support for bonds, and kept moving until it recently re-entered.
The fundamentals for long bonds still seem strong, with the cutting cycle starting with an abrupt 50bp cut, but bonds seem to be seeking support. If yields break above this channel, then we may be seeing something unexpected sniffed out by the bond market. If we retest and continue the downtrend in yields, then expect a nice downtrend back to the post-2008 norm.
10Y is back in the April-July channel, testing supportFrom April to July the 10 year Treasury yield was in a downward channel. It broke below that, retested the resistance-now-support for bonds, and kept moving until it recently re-entered.
The fundamentals for long bonds still seem strong, with the cutting cycle starting with an abrupt 50bp cut, but bonds seem to be seeking support. If yields break above this channel, then we may be seeing something unexpected sniffed out by the bond market. If we retest and continue the downtrend in yields, then expect a nice downtrend back to the post-2008 norm.
US 10Y TREASURY: surprised by jobs dataThe major macro news during the previous week were posted nonfarm and unemployment figures in the US for September. The nonfarm payrolls significantly beated market expectation, by reaching the figure of 254K, while unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% from 4,2% during August. The markets are now convinced that the Fed will slow down rate cuts till the end of this year to 25 bps, considering the high resilience of the US economy. Previously, markets were pricing another 50bps cuts. The US yields adjusted accordingly to new expectations. The 10Y US benchmark was moving around 3,80 during the week, but Friday's jobs data pushed the yields to the higher grounds, ending the week at level of 3,96. Yields were testing the level of 4% previously.
It could be expected that the markets will spend a week ahead by digesting the jobs data, in which sense, the 4,0% level could be tested during the week. At this moment, there is no indication that yields could move to the higher grounds. On the opposite side, there could be some relaxation, at least to the level of 3,9%.
US10Y - US03Y long term outlookIf the bull flag is valid, the future of the US economy could be under currency debasement & stagflation.
Let's see.
