TRXUSD.P trade ideas
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Let's break down the TRON chart
On the chart, it showed a trend line that served as a local support; after the breakdown, it is now a resistance zone.
The price tested the local resistance zone but failed to break through and consolidate above the local zone. I expect more drops.
TRXVery simple ... Very clear
A downward trend has begun.
This is my personal opinion. Please do not trade based on my analysis and data.
Best Case Scenario: TRX is going to $250In the realistic possibility that a vast majority of TRX is burnt in the next year, we could see a hyper deflationary spiral causing TRX to increase 35x-100x in market cap, and 3000x in price.
Based on the average burn rate of 284 million TRX per day since USDD launched, it's possible that 99% of the circulating supply of TRX is removed from circulation over the next year or so. This means there could be only 1 billion TRX in circulation in the near future, and a price of $250 per TRX is realistic in that scenario because it would be a market cap of only $250 billion, still significantly smaller than what Bitcoin is today and roughly equal to Ethereum's current market cap. It should also be noted that BTC and ETH are expected to increase over this period of time as well to several trillion market cap each.
There are 32 billion TRX staked and the TRON DAO holds about 28 billion TRX , that leaves less than 45 billion TRX currently "circulating," though at the right price many people will begin unstaking and selling. These sales will likely end up getting burnt by USDD redemptions or network fees, ultimately moving the supply that is available for sale closer to 0.
Even if the available supply remains around 10 billion TRX (minus TRON DAO coins which will likely be burnt or remain off the market during this time) a $250 price and $2.5 trillion market cap is still possible and would be much smaller than BTC would be at that point, assuming Bitcoin likely goes to at least $200k-$1m
If the giga bull scenario doesn't happen a move to $10 is still very likely as the supply should remain hyper deflationary to keep up with the demand for USDD for the foreseeable future. A move to $10 at 10 billion supply would be only $100 billion market cap which is less than half of what ETH is today, and again ETH could also be expected to rise to $10-20k over the same period making it's market cap well into the trillions.
Eventually demand for USDD will begin to reverse when collateralization becomes riskier and interest rates are cut, leading to people redeeming USDD for TRX , and likely causing a massive correction in TRX . possibly larger than the -97% correction we saw after the 2018 peak, and in a worst case scenario TRX could end up in a death spiral like LUNA if the USDD peg is broken and redemptions are not paused soon enough.
I think that the TRON DAO Reserve will learn from LUNA's mistakes, and that USDD will ultimately have much better collateralization, and in the risk of a death spiral redemptions for TRX will be paused before the supply of TRX becomes too large like what happened with LUNA. The death spiral may actually be avoided by simply cutting the APR when collateralization becomes too low, which LUNA and UST never did and that led to UST being undercollateralized. By cutting the APR they also cut the demand which can lead to a more orderly exit from USDD, rather than everyone rushing for the exit at the same time like with UST .
As people exit USDD in a more orderly fashion the collateralization levels become greater and the risk of a death spiral decreases to near 0. The catch is if USDD is collateralized by risky assets like BTC or TRX , then there is systemic risk if those assets suddenly crash and now the reserve dollar value has rapidly declined to less than the total issuance of USDD. For now there are enough stablecoins to back USDD at greater than 1:1 ratio so there is virtually no risk of a death spiral, but even an orderly exit from USDD will cause downward pressure on TRX prices.
Even without a death spiral a massive correction is likely after a move to triple digits, especially when the TRON DAO Reserve is forced to eventually cut USDD rates, which will put downward pressure on TRX as capital begins to leave USDD and the supply of TRX may actually begin to increase. The key is for the TDR to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral by taking on too much debt, much like when a central bank takes on too much debt and their currency begins to hyperinflate to pay for this debt.
While the exact price may not be clear at this point, what is clear is that TRX's supply has entered into a hyper deflationary spiral and if it keeps up at the rate it is going a vast majority of TRX will be burnt in a year, and the price of TRX is going to have to go much higher to meet the demand for USDD issuance and 30% APR that is offered by USDD staking.
Even if the market cap remains the same the price could still increase by 10-100x over the next year or two because the supply of TRX is rapidly declining and that trend is likely to continue as long as USDD APR remains high and the TRON DAO Reserve remains overcollateralized.
I would watch for resistance around psychological levels because that is likely where the most sell liquidity will be found to meet the demand of USDD redemptions, around $1 (61.8 extension), $10 (1.0 extension), $100, and finally $250 (161.8 extension of wave-E )
Tron (TRX) Jumps 24%, Is It A Recovery Or A Dead Cat Bounce?TRON (TRX) prices have jumped by over 24% since the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the interest rates by 75 basis points. Meanwhile, the TRON blockchain has also gained the support of Crypto finance, an asset management group.
The TRX token has registered a tumbling week as it dropped with correlating with the other major cryptocurrencies. However, the recent surge has helped the token recover from its recent dump. The TRX prices dropped by around 23% over the past 7 days. It is trading at an average price of $0.0624, at the press time.
One of the main reasons considered for the Trx’s price collapse has been the de-pegging of TRON’s stablecoin. USDD is trading at a price of $0.977, at the press time. The stablecoin has shown some improvement as it is up by around 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The USDD token went on to touch the price level of $0.96 on June 15, 2022. Meanwhile, TRON stablecoin’s market circulation has stood at 723.3 million while its market cap has shrunk to $707.2 million.
However, the blockchain team took many measures to counter the recent slump. Justin Sun, Head of TRON, announced the plan to withdraw 2.5 billion TRX tokens from the Binance crypto exchange. The withdrawn tokens’ worth amounted to around $125 million. Meanwhile, TRX’s 24 hour volume has surged by around 70% to stand at $2.6 billion.
In a bid to provide more stability and global growth to its tokens, the TRON joined hands with Crypto Finance. The release mentioned that more TRON based tokens will be added in the future. This collaboration will provide different access to the network.
TRXThe price is forming a descending triangle at a strong fibo level of 38.2%. The trend line and 200 MA are important support levels. If the triangle is broken down, the price may break through the uptrend and fall to the level of 61.8% Fibo
TRON Deploys $700 Mln To Support USDD StablecoinDespite initially outperforming amid the recent crash, TRON (TRX) prices have dropped by over 16% in the last 24 hours. In order to defend and build support, Justin Sun, TRON head has planned to deploy over $2 billion.
With the USDD stablecoin briefly losing its peg, Tron deployed $700 million to support the stablecoin and maintain redemptions.
Justin Sun in a Twitter post highlighted that the funding rate of shorting TRX token on the world’s biggest crypto trading platform, Binance has redhead 500% ARP. The announced amount will help them to fight it. He added this situation won’t last for even 24 hours.
The TRON DAO informed that to counter the current situation they have received 700 million USDC. This amount will be used to defend the USDD peg. It added that its collateralization rate is nearly 300%. In another update, it mentioned that DAO has added 100 million USDC to the Binance to buy more TRX.
tron/usd ready for landing...After analyzing the TRON, weakness in uptrend is observed. Due to the market momentum, there is a possibility that TRON will crash. but first, set a trigger for entry position and do not forget about SL
trade with your choice
TRXUSD ❕ purchases from TRON DAO & Justin SunThe fall of the Tron was amplified by the unpeg USDD situation.
TRON DAO reported new purchases of TRX and BTC.
Justin Sun said he has $2 billion to fight negative rates on TRX futures. This amount is almost equal to the coin's daily trading volume.
The TRX continues to hold the global upside structure.
The price is in the liquidity zone near the lower boundary of the uptrend channel.
I think we will be able to pick up some movement here after the retest of the lower channel boundary and fixation above it.
TrxusdBroken down pennant structure
Still up vs btc due to luna copy burn mechanism
Most of the crypto market looks like dirt rn
TRX Going to Down??Yesterday the news of TRX gained so much attention about the USDD that it shoot for more than 17%. Right now it is in the cooling phase , but Tron is know for doing something opposite in the market so I have a neutral view, but if the price breaks in either direction I will open a trade.
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TRXUSD ❕ TRON DAO continues the partyTRON continues to move in range.
Price has formed an uptrend channel.
TRX is holding the lower boundary of the channel.
Volatility has declined.
The 50MA crosses upward of the 100MA on the 30m Timeframe.
Price continues to hold above 200MA on 4H Timeframe.
TRON DAO plans to continue buying TRX.
I expect TRX may continue to rise after it has fixed in the channel.
trx fibonacci range targets take profittake profit targets and entry by trx based of range and fibonacci
Bearish TRONThe wave field has already formed the prototype of the head and shoulders top
There is a risk of a subsequent break below the neckline
Not optimistic about the follow-up trend of TRON
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Baissier puis reprise haussiere ... attention volu, importantL hiérarchie de mon analyse en numérotation . Me pousse a spéculer. Merci pour avis et commentaire …..En semaine plus de précision sur l entrée
TRON Weekly View 3/6/22TRXUSD Can be seen to have moved above the 50MA in a bullish fashion on this Weekly timeframe
Prior this support for the bulls was found at the 100MA
A breakout to upside may follow
TRXUSD ❕ uptrendTVL in the Tron ecosystem has risen strongly.
The price is in the liquidity zone and upward channel.
An attempted breakout of the channel was bought off with large volumes.
Volatility has declined.
I expect that the price will fix in the channel, and then will continue to grow.
RR=3 sell ideatwo bearish gartley + price at resistance level + breakout of double top + bearish engulfing
PS : never risk more than 2% of your capital per trade
Tron Forecast | Potential Pullback ahead.TRON looks bearish towars 0.763 for a bias of 0.0715 upon resistance of 0.0900. It is expected to make a turn.
