"Altcoins: The Untold Story" Let’s break this down step by step, so it all makes sense.
Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Movement
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) above altcoin prices means that altcoins move up more cautiously because Bitcoin is still holding the majority of market power.
• When altcoins started picking up, we saw it happen at point A.
o Look at the ADX during that time—compare its size back then to what it is now.
o Now, ask yourself: Where did TOTAL3 fall? It fell during Bitcoin’s bull flag, and that’s what created the weakness in altcoins.
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Recovery and Current Strength
• After that, TOTAL3 regained strength as Bitcoin moved up. But here’s the key point:
o Altcoins didn’t follow.
o Even though Bitcoin surged, altcoins remained stagnant, losing momentum.
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The Impact of Bitcoin’s Bull Flag on Altcoins
• As Bitcoin formed a bull flag, traders sold off their positions as Bitcoin fell, further weakening altcoins.
• Now that Bitcoin has gained even more power, some people are claiming that alt season is over.
o But let’s be real—where’s the liquidity?
o Altcoins haven’t fully surged yet, and this is critical to understand.
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The Date Range Analysis
• Let’s look at the timeline:
o From the previous date until now, we’re looking at 147 days remaining in this period.
o However, we also need to add back the 182 days lost during Bitcoin’s bull flag when altcoins were weak.
o Together, that gives us a total of 329 days.
• These 329 days don’t fully count as part of the altcoin bull market because:
1. Altcoins were on pause while Bitcoin dominated.
2. These days only apply to the few altcoins that moved with Bitcoin, like XRP, ORCA, and BOBBA, while others didn’t.
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Altcoin Season Hasn’t Started Yet
• Altcoin season isn’t here yet, and I’ll explain why:
o Bitcoin and altcoins go hand in hand. It’s not just Bitcoin alone—it’s all part of the same package.
o Mixing Bitcoin’s bull market with altcoins is misleading. It’s like ordering a Happy Meal at McDonald’s but only getting a burger and drink—where are the fries and the toy? The full package hasn’t arrived yet.
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ADX and Smart Money Trendline
• The ADX hasn’t made its big move yet, but it’s getting ready.
• The Smart Money Directional Trendline, which I pulled from the 15-minute timeframe, is pointing upward.
o Interestingly, TOTAL3’s price fell right to where the Smart Money Trendline predicted.
o This is a strong indication that TOTAL3 will follow that upward direction soon.
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What to Expect Next
• As BTC.D starts trending downward, altcoins will explode.
o Historically, when Bitcoin dominance falls, altcoins rally hard.
o Altcoin bull markets are characterized by sustained growth, independent of Bitcoin’s short-term moves.
o TOTAL3 shows that altcoins are primed for movement but are currently held back by Bitcoin’s dominance.
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Conclusion
Altcoin season isn’t over—it hasn’t even started yet. My studies suggest that alt season could begin around January 2025 or sooner.
• We need to differentiate between altcoins that have already followed Bitcoin’s cycle and those that haven’t.
• Altcoins that were part of Bitcoin’s recent bull moves, like XRP and ORCA, have taken part of their cycle. But others still have their time to shine.
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Altcoin season is like a wave—it hasn’t arrived yet, but when it does, it’ll be unmistakable. The data shows the potential for explosive growth as Bitcoin’s dominance starts to decline. Until then, patience is key, and we’ll continue studying the patterns for confirmation before jumping in.