MARKETS week ahead: November 6 – 12Last week in the news
The Fed has temporarily stopped further increase of interest rates, as per Fed Chair Powell, but the market perceives that interest rates have topped. The US equities started November with a positive sentiment, as well as US Treasury bonds. Gold was testing $2K resistance during the whole week, amid geopolitical tensions. The crypto market is still under ETF hype mode, gaining during the week, but Bitcoin is still holding modestly below $35K resistance.
The major event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting, and rate decision as of November 1st. The Fed decided to hold interest rates unchanged, but at after-the-meeting testimony Fed Chair Powell noted that potential further rate increases are not excluded by FOMC members, as such decisions will depend on further developments in the US economy with respect to inflation and employment. Friday’s trading session was positively supported by the US unemployment figures. Non-farm payrolls were increased by 150K in October, lower from market expectations of 170K, while the unemployment rate rose to the level of 3.9% from 3.8% posted for the previous month. Wages were increased by 0.2% in October for the month, to 4.1% on a yearly basis. These figures represent one of the gauges for the Fed as a potential inflation indicator, in which sense, market expectations are that the inflation might further ease till the end of this year.
News that occupied the attention of the public during the previous week was the finalization of the trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The jury found him guilty of all seven counts, by which, he is currently facing a potential sentence of 115 years in prison.
October ended, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission did not issue any approval or disapproval of several filings for the first spot BTC ETF. The SEC`s Chair Gary Gensler commented on Thursday that the SEC has 8 to 10 filings for considerations, without any further comment on the topic. It seems that the SEC still needs more time in order to make the final decision. Until then, analysts are speculating over the potential funds to inflow into the crypto market after the approval of the first ETF. Current estimates are ranging from $ 14B up to $55B within the next three years.
As Coindesk is reporting, the SEC requested additional documentation for PayPal`s stablecoin PYUSD. As seen by the reporters, this represents the latest regulatory action amid businesses that include crypto assets. As noted, it does not necessarily mean that potential lawsuits might be in store for PayPal, considering SEC`s perception that majority of altcoins and stablecoins are securities and should be officially registered with the SEC.
Crypto market cap
October is over, but there has not been any news related to the first spot BTC ETF. The SEC remained silent, neither approving, neither disapproving several ETF fillings. The only news reported by Reuters is that SEC Chair Gensler shortly commented that the Commission is currently reviewing 8-10 ETF filings. When the final decision will be brought up is unknown at this moment. Regardless of a new postponement of the decision, the market remains optimistic about the crypto market and its further inclusion into mainstream markets. During the previous week total crypto capitalization was increased by additional $35B or 2.8% on a weekly basis. Although Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto market cap, still, this week other altcoins contributed to the total increase of the market value. The last time the crypto market held this level of capitalization was during May last year. Daily trading volumes continue to hold at increased levels of $60B on a daily basis, without change on a weekly basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 68%, where it has added total $512B to the market cap.
Although Bitcoin is for one more week leader on the market when it comes to the total market cap increase, still, during the previous week there has been significant inflow of funds into major altcoins on the market. BTC increased its total capitalization by $11.8B on a weekly basis, which is an increase of 1.78%. ETH also had a solid performance with a surge of $5.3B in total market cap or 2.48% w/w. During the previous week Solana had an excellent performance, with an increase in its market cap by almost $ 4B, which represents a surge of 29.3% for this coin. XRP had another good week, by managing to increase its cap by additional $3.5B or 11.9% on a weekly basis. When it comes to excellent weekly performance, it should be mentioned ADA, which added more than $ 1B to its cap, which is an increase of 10.3%, and was followed by BNB, which added $1.2B and an increase in cap by 3.5%. Altcoins with good performance in a relative terms were NEO, with surge in cap of 15.3% w/w, Theta was up by more than 12%, same as OMG Network, Uniswap has increased its value by 13.7%, while Polkadot was up by more than 10%. It should be mentioned that only a few coins finished the week in red, like Bitcoin Cash, which was down by 3.55% w/w, Maker lost more than 9% of its value, while DOGE lost 0.7% in value.
During the previous week there has been modestly increased activity related to coins in circulation. Miota increased its circulating coins by 0.6%, followed by Filecoin, with an increase of 0.5%. Stellar`s coins were up by 0.3%, while Solana`s coins were higher by 0.2%. Tether should be mentioned, as the coin increased its value and circulating coins by 1.0% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side, few altcoins decreased the number of its circulating coins, where Polkadot`s total coins decreased by 1.1%, Polygon's drop in circulating coins was 0.7%.
Crypto futures market
Positive market sentiment is still holding with crypto investors, both on spot and futures markets. BTC futures for all maturities were traded higher by more than 2% on a weekly basis. Short term maturities were up 2.75%, with December 2023 ending the week at price of $35.305 on CBOE. Longer term maturities are still holding above the $38K price range, which is very positive for BTC, as investors are pretty confident at this moment regarding the potential for future price increase of the BTC from current levels. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level of $38.225 or 2.65% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, futures maturing in March 2025 ended the week at price $38.925, which supports the sentiment of further rise in the value of BTC.
ETH short term futures were traded more than 2% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 is ending the week at a price $1.859, which is 2.64% higher from the end of the previous week. Same as with BTC, investors are also expecting further increase in value of the ETH, with December 2024 futures ending the week at price of $1.937 or 0.99% higher, while those maturing in March 2025 ended the week at $1.964. Still, what is interesting to note for the price of ETH is that it is still not able to cross the $2K psychological level.
