MARKETS week ahead: July 15 – 21Last week in the news
The US CPI data for June were the major market mover during the previous week. A better than expected CPI data pushed the value of USD to the lower grounds, supporting the price of gold to test again levels modestly above $2.4K. US Treasury yields also adjusted to these results, where 10Y Treasuries dropped to the level of 4.18%. At the same time, the S & P 500 reached a fresh new all time highest level at 5.658. The only market that was not quite sure which side to trade was the crypto market. BTC was testing $58K resistance levels, but it also tested a $55K support line. Crypto market bulls and bears were not able to agree which side to trade.
Fed Chair Powell had a testimony in front of the US Congress, where he provided information to the Congress members on the state of the US economy and further changes in the US banking regulations in terms of potential implementation of the Basel standards. Still, the markets were most interested to hear any news regarding potential timing of the first rate cut. Although he avoided openly discussing any timing of such a move, still he noted that inflation is not the only indicator when FOMC is deciding on the rate cuts, but they are also closely watching developments on the job market, in terms of its potential further weakening. His testimony did have some modest influence on financial markets in terms of higher volatility, however, analysts were interpreting his notes in a different manner, in which sense, consensus on the month of Fed`s pivoting is still not unified among market participants. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, continues to hold to his previous anticipation that the inflationary pressure could continue to hold, and in this sense, potential Fed's rate cuts should be taken with precaution. He is supporting his views with “large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world” which all constitute a potential threat which could set the road for another round of inflation in the US.
Potential Fed's rate cuts have also been a topic for discussion within the crypto community. The question was imposed on expectations of the crypto investors and traders of how Fed`s pivoting will impact the price of BTC. The majority agree that it should be positive for BTC and other major crypto coins, as there is a general expectation that lower interest rates will boost the liquidity and in this sense support the price of BTC. Still, it should be noted that there are some investors with the opinion that the market had already priced in Fed's rate cut when BTC`s price reached $ 73K and that this time they do not expect any significant market reaction.
JPMorgan, DBS and Standard Chartered banks joined forces to raise additional $60 million of funds, through series B funding, in order to support their joint project called Partior. The aim of this project is to establish an interbank payment network based on a blockchain technology for instant clearing services.
Several employees of Open AI made complaints with the Securities and Exchange Commission over company`s too restrictive non-disclosure agreements made with employees, through which, they are not able to openly discuss any irregularities related to deployment of AI. This news was published by Reuters during the previous week, in which employees seek an SEC investigation over the “irresponsible deployment of AI” and its “full compliance with SEC rules”.
Crypto market cap
After a strong sell off on the crypto market two weeks ago, it managed to modestly recover during the previous week. However, it was evident that the recovery was relatively weak during the week, as the market was still not sure which side to trade, and whether the sell off was finally over. Just as a reminder, there has been an announcement from crypto exchange Mt Gox that the bankrupt exchanger will return to its creditors some $9 billion through Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. During the month, the German Government sold its BTC holding worth around $2.8 billion. At the same time, BTC ETF`s became net sellers, instead of net buyers of BTC, while a combination of factors led to significant pressure on BTC and other crypto coins. During the previous week, the total crypto market managed to add 1% to its capitalization, increasing it by $28B. Daily trading volumes remained under pressure, moving around $ 90B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $471B, which represents a 29% surge from the beginning of this year.
Previous week was a green week on the crypto market. Almost all coins gained in value on a weekly basis, with only a few marking a modestly red week. BTC managed to increase its market cap by 1.3%, adding $14.6B to its cap. ETH added $13.7, increasing its value by 3.75% w/w. This week XRP was the coin with a notable gain of $5.2B in value, surging by 20.8% w/w. Cardano also had a good week with a surge in cap of $2.5B or 19.3%. Some other coins with relatively good performance in relative terms were ZCash, with a 33.1% surge in value, DASH was higher by 11.1% w/w, Maker ended the week higher by 15.2%, while Filecoin was up almost 12%. Only a few coins ended the week lower from the week before, among which were Solana, who decreased its market cap by 1.5%, OMG Network was down by 2.5% and DOGE dropped by 1% w/w.
There have been some developments when coins in circulation are in question. Cardano increased the number of coins on the market by 0.3%, Tether`s number of coins was up by 0.2%. This week Miota increased its circulating coins by a significant 0.6%, while Filcoin traditionally surging by 0.5%.
Crypto futures market
In line with reverted optimism on the spot market, the crypto futures market ended the week in green. BTC short term futures ended the week higher by some 2% on average. Still, December 2024 closed the week at the price of $60.185, which was almost 6% higher from the end of the previous week. BTC longer term futures were traded 1.8% higher from the week before, while December 2025 closed the week at level of $66.405.
ETH futures had an increase in the futures prices above 4% for all maturities. ETH futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $3.251 or 4.30% higher from the end of the previous week. December 2025 closed the week at $3.478 or 4.16% higher on a weekly basis.
