I'm back.XAUUSD has risen beyond the expectations of many, it has stayed strong and the trend has not changed. Let me predict every turn it takes and follow my channel again.
TGD1! trade ideas
GC Buy Stoptook a nice set up during london as Im trying to get used to trading London as I did back in 2017-2020
Red Folder News at 10 est. Keep that in mind Only targeting 1:1 on this... always 40 ticks risk
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
gold
comment: This does look a lot more like a trading range than a market who want’s to have it’s third leg down. 2300 continues to be big support and until that is clearly broken, it’s a buy at that price. For the pull-back to stay below 2360 is bearish. So market has arguments on both sides and that is why we can expect more sideways price action until that range is clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2360
bull case: The longer they can keep it above 2300, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for a breakout to either side become 50/50. Market is in balance here, so no good arguments for higher or lower prices. The current bear channel is reasonable and maybe the bulls are favored down here to trade it back to around 2330 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case either.
Invalidation is above 2360.
short term: Completely neutral inside given range.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yeah just a weird day. Expanding triangle first and then another big sell against the 1h 20ema.
GC 1H Buy Idea 6/12/24Looking for price to return to the previous 1H high around 2335 for a retest and possible bullish continuation. This area is also around the 61.8-71.8 FIB levels.
**This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
GOLD SPOT UPDATE AHEAD FED POLICY EDU PUR.gold spot stya abv 2330 looks 2340-45$ where support 2325 if blw thna again dwn side mark will start till 2300+++++ in mcx 71900 abv looks 772200-300 possible
$GC Wyckoff DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE CONIFIRMED!Hello guys,
please take a look at the chart at 4H and on DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE by Wyckoff.
you can notice the similarity.
I think we are in the final stages of going down, we already reached MSOW so yesterday movement from interest rate was the last retest (LPSY) before the new low.
Tell me what you think :)
Gold Futures Technical Analysis - 15M Chart
Hey traders, here’s the scoop on Gold Futures:
The price is currently trading around $2,329.5, just below the 21 EMA (yellow line at $2,332.7), indicating potential bearish momentum on this timeframe.
There’s a recent downward movement with the price testing the trendline support.
Entry Strategy:
Short Position: Look for a pullback to the 21 EMA ($2,332.7) and ensure a strong bearish candle closes below this level. That’s your potential entry point confirming bearish momentum.
Long Position: If the price holds above $2,329.3 and breaks above the 21 EMA, look for a strong bullish candle as confirmation for a potential long entry.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Short Targets:
Target 1: $2,329.3
Target 2: $2,311.8
Long Targets:
Target 1: $2,345.1
Stop-Loss:
For shorts, set your stop-loss just above $2,332.7.
For longs, set your stop-loss just below $2,329.3.
Textbook example of a rectangle in the making in GoldIf this pattern completes with follow-through, this might become one of the most classic rectangles in the history of classical charting
Market Crash - CPI PreviewI've been focusing on FOMC a lot lately, but we also have CPI in the morning, which is another event that could cause significant volatility. Here's some of my thoughts and expectations for CPI tomorrow.
Gold: One Last ClimbWe expect the gold price to rise once again. We expect the high of the turquoise-colored wave B to occur in our same-colored Target Zone (between $2510 and $2631). After that, the price should sell off significantly. If, on the other hand, there is an early fall below the support at $2285 (45% likely), we will see the price already in the descent now.
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 12th June 2024
Today will be tough day for trading,
if Sustain above 2330 then 2339 to 2340 above this bullish then 2344.9 to 2347.0 above this more bullish then 2352.4 then 2356.7 to 2358.8 or 2361.4 to 2363.1 then 2364.4
if Sustain Below 2328.3 to 2326.7 or 2325.0 below this bearish then 2310.4 to 2308.5 then 2304.2 to 2302.5 below this more bearish then 2296.4 then 2292.1 then 2290.3 to 2288.6 or 2284.3
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
II does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
Can Gold Futures Hold Support?Technical Momentum Weakens
Gold Futures hit an all-time high on May 20th, 2024, at $2,454; since then, they have corrected and consolidated. From a long-term perspective, futures give us a mixed signal, recently dropping below the 50-DMA at $2,373 but remaining well above the 200-DMA at $2,153. The technical perspective shows momentum studies decreasing, with stochastics correcting back into oversold territory and DMI—just above DMI+. Short-term traders continue to monitor the 9-day moving average, trading below the 18-day moving average. At the same time, the Average True Range sits at $37/day.
Tailwinds Continue to Develop
With an 8% chance of a July rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are focused on September; swaps are pricing in a 54% chance that the Fed will make its first interest rate hike in the cycle.
Geopolitical tensions, rampant fiscal spending, and central bank buying have been the main drivers and have significantly propelled Gold prices in 2024.
Industrial Metals Strengthen
The performance in the Precious Metals space remains robust and has continued to spill into the industrial complex, a testament to the strength of this sector. Traders continue to monitor manufacturing, Chinese Economic data, and the U.S. economy, which have recently driven copper futures back over $4.50/pound and Silver over $29.50/oz.
www.tradingview.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GOLD reversal patternPossible head and shoulder pattern. Not in a trade yet as I will look at lower timeframes to time my entry and get a more feasible RRR. However in trading I consider all possible setups the price can make and if the pattern don't play out as classic technical analysis I will look at the Symmetrical triangle and trade it as an alternative.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG from 1HR Demand...?COMEX:GC1!
"To be the best you have to work overtime." -Floyd Mayweather Jr.
I have simply come up with this Narrative to go LONG from studying PA. On the 4Hr TF price rejected multiple times at the Daily Support level and buyers started to push up from the supported LEVEL ($2309.0)...
1) We have a clear 1Hr inside bar candle that has yet to be mitigated and this is what I want to enter the market LONG off of. I took 50% of the zone covered the Last Market Low for my stop and I'm targeting the next Minor S&R Zone in the market also based off the 4HR TF ($2335.5)...
Now lets see if we can get the Tag in and BIG PUSH UP!!
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Gold Must Do This Gold (August) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2327.0, up 2.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 29.874, up 0.434
Gold and Silver futures have faced tremendous headwinds from all angles. Friday’s obliteration began after data showed People’s Bank of China did not add to its Gold reserves in May, breaking a streak of 18 straight months. Although we know central banks around the world are still adding to Gold and private entities in China are likely to be doing the same, the news should not have been a total shock as the PBOC softened its buying in April, and as prices have skyrocketed, up as much as 23% in May from the December low.
A strong U.S Nonfarm Payrolls reported, highlighted by large job growth and steadfast wage growth hit a market while it was down. However, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0%, a two year high. While pockets of data show some erosions, job growth has been abundant, especially in the services sector.
Gold and Silver price action improved yesterday before China returned from a three-day holiday to pick up from Friday’s selling that was incurred during U.S. hours. While Silver set a fresh low last night, losing 3% from session highs, Gold remained more constructive, and we are now seeing improvement at the onset of U.S. hours. In fact, Gold is testing the highest level since Friday morning. While there is strong overhead supply in the aftermath of Friday’s damage, we view a move that can hold above 2327-2330.6 as constructive and sets the stage for a potential move out above major three-star resistance at 2343.3-2346.2, which pins Gold positive on the month and neutralizes Friday’s bludgeoning.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2334.8-2337.1***, 2343.3-2346.2***
Pivot: 2327-2330.6
Support: 2322.5-2324.7**, 2314.5-2318.5***, 2302.4-2308.7***, 2227.5-2256.4***
Silver (July)
Resistance: 29.62-29.72**, 29.87-29.94**, 30.07-30.09***, 30.23-30.33***
Pivot: 29.51
Support: 29.33-29.37**, 29.13-29.23**, 28.70-28.80****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Gold Finishing Wave C of either a Flat or Triangle
Gold appears to be finishing wave C of either a flat or a triangle, although it's too early to say which one with any degree of confidence. If prices form a flat, gold should roughly follow the blue line. If they form a triangle, it should roughly follow the yellow line, creating another set of waves up and down before the next climb.
Futures Gold Day Trading analysisOn Gold , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 2351. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 10th June 2024
If Sustain above 2310.4 then 2315.4 then 2325.0 above this bullish then 2347 to 2352 or 2361 above this more bullish
If Sustain below 2310.4 then 2297 to 2292.1 or 2288.6 then 2278.7 to 2273.8 or 2270.3 below this bearish then 2252.1 then 2242.0 to 2237.2 below this more bearish then 2215.7
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock and commodities trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
6/9 | $GCNot much for me to do since the last update on Gold. From the initial breakout, we anticipated a new high would be created before a pullback to retest demand. Now that we are back lower, I would like to see gold start to form a base for a move back to highs potentially. Watching $2300.
GoldTHIS IS NOT A TRADING SIGNAL, ITS AN OPINION, IF YOU COPY IT, IT IS ON YOUR OWN RISK.
Gold has made newer high last week, but it has field to break through and keep moving up wards, went for retest the strong support at $2330 but it has field to hold and push back to the up trend and broke the up trend line.
So far the game has changed a bit due to the up coming Fed Rate, which strongly expected to keep the rate at same 5.50%, and that will push the Gold down to the levels $2250 and then $2180 which is a strong support that we will see a strong pull back from that level if the price pushes to that level, expected a lot of buyers around $2180 level.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Day and I hope you are well.
old futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: The smaller bull trend line was clearly broken and retested and the higher time frames also give more sell than buy signals. It’s a two-legged correction here to the ema and that is a perfect sell signal. They want follow through on Monday for target 2300.
comment: This market behaved as I said it would. The high of 2406 was a bit higher than expected but overall read was perfect. We are in W3 which should lead a bit lower to around 2270ish before we get another sideways to up movement. If W4 stays below 2350, W5 should bring us to at least 2200. That is a 120 point move in Gold for you. Let’s see how it will play out. Small possibility that 2300 stays support and we move more sideways. Would reevaluate my take on this then.
current market cycle: trading range until break below 2300 , which would confirm a bear trend, probably down to 2200. I favor the bears heavily here but leave room for 2300 being stronger support than I think it is.
key levels: 2300 - 2400 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play
bull case: Bulls continued in the expanding triangle and got their retest of 2400, just to be violently sold by the bears. Twitter and news salespeople want you to believe it was due to news that China won’t buy any more Gold. But how do they explain the W1 from 2477 down to 2334? That started 2 weeks ago. Only objective now for the bulls is to keep it above 2300, otherwise 2270 comes next.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: My bear channel tells how you I feel about Gold. Now bears need to print lower lows and keep the pull-back for W4 mostly sideways and under 2350. I fully expect to hit 2200 over the next weeks and then we will find out how many people want to buy Gold again.
Invalidation is above 2360.
outlook last week: “Still preferring that second leg down to 2200. Bearish below 2340 and neutral 2340-2390.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2345 and now we are at 2325. My target to the EMA was on point and good for about 30 points and my downward target to 2270 is still valid. Good outlook.
short term: Bearish. Big bear surprise on Friday and I expect follow through.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short from 2374. SL is 2406.
Chart update: I like my new bear channel. I trade it and I made money so far with it. Hope you can make some too with it.
