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GF101! trade ideas

Gold: Bearish Dominance 🐻The bears are currently not giving up control of the gold price and have caused strong sell-offs. Nevertheless, we primarily see this as part of the substructure of the turquoise wave B and expect the rally to continue soon. However, for this scenario to remain in tact, the reversal must take place above the support at $1935. Should this level be broken, the alternative with a probability of 40% would come into play, which sees the price already in a descent.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by MarketIntel
Bitcoin12.12.23 Bitcoin came to a reversal area Using the tools that we use. Yesterday it corrected a little bit lower and I was looking at it to see if I could be a buyer or a seller. I have to decide if this is the beginning of a move that will go lower or if yesterday was just some profit taking and today the market will be moving higher. Every time I look for a trade location, Whether I am actually in a trade or about to take a trade... I spend a lot of time trying to decide the probability that the market will move in the direction that fits my trade. I do want a trade that has good rage to it if it is moving in my direction but first and foremost, in addition to having a small stop... I want the market to move in the direction of my entry price. this is an important issue for me. Near the end of the video I brought out the Gold chart which is probably going higher today. The previous day I thought the probability was that the market would move lower and it did but not as much as I thought it would... but it moved about $2,000 lower. When I was thinking through that trade on the video I had the belief that I'd be able to buy that market once it goes a little bit lower. On the day that I thought the market was going lower it went lower by $3,000... the opening price today looks like it's going to go higher from yesterday's close. If you're not used to trading these markets and you're not careful on your trade location and determining the direction.... you can get hurt. Ask yourself what you would do if you had two $3,000 trades....But you were on the wrong side of the market and you ended up losing four or $5,000 on those two trades. Every decision has a consequence. My decision never rests on volume, or a crossing moving average, or any oscillator,,, but that means I have to think about it.... and as we all know, Sometimes the decisions are easier to make. It's probably best to wait for that time well there will be clarity... and you will know what that is after you work with it for a while. Keep the losses small, Trade less and if you're a buyer know where the sellers are, and if you are a seller know where the buyers are. oscillators don't tell you that.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Gold short12.11.23 I was looking at the gold chart tonight and it's about 2:00 am in the morning and it looks like gold is going lower. So I try to analyze it as a buyer and a seller to determine what my target should be and what my stops should be. It's a little bit of a pain in the neck and that's because this is a contracted market and they're very difficult to trade. on the other hand buyers do not control this market... henceforth the video was probably 5 to 10 minutes longer than it needed to be... and yet I think it'll probably trade lower. The importance of noticing contraction of a market... and non-volatile price action is that you can pin the problem on the market because contracted markets are always tougher to trade... unless you take a trade and then this might be your problem. volatile markets are easier to trade the non-volatable markets. If you believe differently, you might want to rethink that.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
I Love $GC!Ever since the outbreak of the Middle East war, this gold market has been unrestrained. It appears to have returned to the order block, approximately at the 0.382 retracement, in an attempt to rally further. But does it have enough momentum? Bull Case - Of course! As soon as we break through the order block, we should be heading towards the 2025 to 2050 mark. The key is to close above the 2008 level, which would pave the way for significant gains. Bear Case - The 2008 level represents a resistance point, reinforcing my bearish prediction of a double top. This bullish optimism could lead to liquidation once the pattern consolidates and rebalances the candle in October. The critical point to watch is whether we break below the 1987 level. Conclusion - The end of this consolidation phase will reveal the prevailing trend. Having averted a death cross and rebounding, it’s fascinating to consider whether the 2008 level can be sustained. If not, the bullish order block might be put to the test.
COMEX:GC1!
by JDTheGreat
Gold12.7.23I wanted to show a few trade locations that may not be intuitive to some traders. obviously any opinion I have reflects my bias... so the best we can do is decide if the market will go in a direction but I think it is Going. When I do the videos there's always a time lag...And I can't do anything about that. This is why I try to articulate what I'm looking for when I don't have the desire or the time to get online and do videos. I think one of the biggest problems the traders have and this was a very big problem for the beginning years of trading for me, Is that I didn't know how to read the market and I miscalculated the market based on my biases because my opinions weren't objective or I wouldn't have lost so much. People lose money because they don't see what's going on with the market and they don't do anything about it. You enter the trade and you have to exit to trade and that's all your responsibility. My strategy is to have small stops and trade in the direction of high probability so that I don't get stopped out right away.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
If it is 1.2 and 1.2? Sharp corrective patternHello there! I am a big fan of the Elliott Wave Principle, which is very interesting and useful for analyzing the market. I have developed my analytical approach by combining the principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that may occur in the market. Although I want to share my analysis with you, I want to emphasize that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My main intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions. To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand. I hope that my analysis will be helpful in your trading journey and wish you all the best. Sincerely,
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
Before Gold move to new fresh zone.From the chart, it can be seen that gold will move within a zone and needs to transition to new zones. It will need to move at a rate greater than 20% in the early stages and will continue to move within that zone until new factors come into play to facilitate further movement. My criteria zone 0, 500, 1000,1500,2000, Example zone 1: 1000- 1500 zone 2: 1500 - 2000 zone 3: 1000 - 1500 zone 4: 1500 - 2000 zone 5? Currently, the closing price is above the closing price of gold in the past and is consolidating downward. If it can hold within this zone, it may be able to move further by about 20% and maintain its condition in this zone until new factors emerge.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by theoris
Time for Gold to Shine?Gold futures have embarked on a robust rally, propelling the precious metal to break all-time highs. This surge in gold prices has been influenced by a series of impactful events throughout the year. Initially, financial crisis fears emerged with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, creating uncertainty in the markets. Gold’s Correlation to Yields Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, added another layer of complexity, yet gold exhibited a notable disconnect from interest rate yields during this period. However, recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for October, showing no increase in inflation, have realigned the correlation between metals and interest rate yields. Major Headwinds for Gold: As the year approaches its conclusion, economic indicators are coming into focus. On December 1st, the Atlanta Fed revised its GDP Now for Q4 lower from 1.8% to 1.2%, signaling potential headwinds for economic growth. The bond market is actively repricing interest rate expectations for 2024, with a significant event on the horizon—the release of the Fed’s summary of Economic Projections on December 13th, featuring the influential Dot Plot. Amid these uncertainties, gold is rallying due to concerns about weaker economic growth, a slowing consumer, and the prospect of easier financial conditions, creating a "Risk On" environment for various assets. For gold to confirm a breakout, it will need to decisively break and close above the psychologically significant level of 2100. As mega-cap tech stocks have dominated headlines throughout the course of this year, is it Time for Gold to Shine? CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
GC: Gold Reaches Record High on Hope of Fed Rate CutsCOMEX: Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2,069 per ounce, up 3.4% for the week. Gold price rose to $2,075 mid-session to beat the previous record of $2,072 reached in 2020. U.S. gold futures also broke new ground. The February 2024 contract of COMEX gold futures settled at a record high of $2,089.7, up 1.6% for the week. On Friday, gold futures trade volume was 259,889 lots, with open interest standing at 498,685 contracts. Options on the COMEX gold futures also attracted investor attention. On Friday, total options volume was 92,906, up 112% from the prior day. Open interest was 806,297 lots. For the lead February 2024 contracts, investors bought 19,565 call options and 6,894 put options. A call-to-put ratio of 2.83:1 indicates that investors are very bullish on gold. Gold prices have been pumped up on investor hype that the Federal Reserve may have completed its monetary tightening policy and could start cutting rates as early as March. How high could gold price go? Since last year, I have written extensively about gold on TradingView. Let’s revisit the fundamental drivers of the global gold market. Gold as an Inflation Hedge Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. The US CPI Index has a base value of 100 set at 1982-1984. Its latest reading in October is 307.7. Over the last 40 years, the cost of US goods and services has tripled on average. The year-end gold price between 1982 and 1984 averaged $378. As of Friday, the bullion gained 447% for the same period. Over the long run, investing in gold does beat inflation. Gold as a Precious Metal As a commodity, gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar. Since gold is priced in dollar, a strong dollar raises the cost for foreign investors who must pay more with weakened foreign currency. This reduces the demand for gold. “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” is the general theme in global commodities market, gold included. A closely related theme is “Higher Rates, Lower Prices”. Higher interest rates and Treasury bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Unlike other commodities, gold is not consumed or used up every year. Therefore, gold mining output is not a major factor in the pricing of gold. Gold as a Safe Haven Investment Gold retains its value in times of both financial chaos and geopolitical crises. People flee to its relative safety when world tensions rise. During such times, gold often outperforms other investments. In the past two decades, gold price peaked during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2010 European debt crisis, the 2018-19 US-China trade conflict, the outbreak of COVID pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the March 2023 U.S. bank run. Gold as an Investment Class As an investment class, gold competes for investor money along with stocks, bonds, cryptos and money-market funds. Even at record high, gold gained only 13.2% year-to-date, underperforming S&P 500 (+19.6%), Nasdaq 100 (+46.4%) and Bitcoin (+136.0%). A False Narrative on Monetary Easing The recent rise in the stocks and gold is largely shaped by the changes in market sentiment. Investors believe that the Fed is shifting gears from restricted to easing policy. Looking back in the past two years, market sentiment might not be the most reliable gauge of the Fed’s next step of action. The market has called for the Fed Pivot prematurely and incorrectly multiple times. We will need to wait and see what’s happening next. In his speech at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday, the Fed Chair said that “the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced,” but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now. Investors focus on the current rate well into restrictive territory, but pointedly ignore the warning that it was premature to speculate on easing rates. The confirmation bias is at work here. They hear what they want to hear and create a new narrative that rate cuts will come sooner. Pricing in 5-6 rate cuts in a year is very aggressive. The Fed Chair has been accused of being too late to act, seeing inflation transitory earlier on. When it comes to cutting rates, the Fed would be very cautious, and at a very slow and measured pace. Trading Opportunities with Gold Options Market fundamentals haven’t changed. Market sentiment, however, has shifted. The aggressive rate-cut assumption has the effect of lowering the expected interest rates. This helps raise the present value of future cash flows. Hence, stock value goes up. Lower bond yield reduces the disadvantage of holding the non-yielding gold, and the US dollar weakening makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers. This bull market is vulnerable. If investors adjust their rate-cut assumptions from 5-6 to 2-3 times, the market could turn nosediving. However, investors set their sight on rate cuts and will not abandon it until the fact rejects the false narrative. Gold has a so-called “Santa Claus rally” and could continue for a while. The Fed Chair’s statement could become more convincing if: • Nonfarm payroll stays strong (December 8th) • CPI stops falling (December 12th) • The Fed keeps rate unchanged and emphasizes on fighting inflation (December 13th) Options on COMEX Gold Futures (GC) could be a cost-efficient and risk-mitigated way to express one’s opinion on how quickly the Fed would cut rates. Each options contract is based on 1 futures contract and has a notional value of 100 troy ounces of gold. At $2,089.7, each contract is worth $208,970. For illustration purpose: For the February 2024 contract, an out-of-the-money (OTM) call at 2190 ($100 above futures price) is quoted at 18.80. To acquire 1 call options requires an upfront premium of $1,880 (= 18.80 x 100 ounces). An OTM put at 1990 ($100 below futures price) is quoted at 9.00. To acquire 1 put requires an upfront premium of $900 (= 9.00 x 100 ounces). Options premium is significantly lower than futures margin, which stands at $7,800 per contract. It’s a fraction of the cost if you were to buy 100 ounces of gold in the spot market. If the trader buys a call and gold futures goes up, his account will increase in value. Unlike investing in spot gold or gold futures, the payoff in options is nonlinear, determining by the Black-Scholes option model. Similarly, when the trader buys a put and gold futures declines, he would also make a profit. On the flip side, the trader could lose money if the market moves against him. But the maximum loss is capped at the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by JimHuangChicago
7
Gold hits Record High on Bets for March Start to Fed Rate cutsGold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell increased traders' confidence the U.S. central bank had completed its monetary policy tightening and could cut rates starting March. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2,069.10 per ounce by 3:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT). Prices were 3.4% higher so far this week, and earlier rose to $2,075.09 per ounce to beat the previous all-time high of $2,072.49 scaled in 2020. Powell said "the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced," but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now. "Gold bulls are focusing on Powell's comment that rate is well into restrictive territory which plays into the narrative that cuts will come sooner, pointedly ignoring his warning that it was premature to speculate on easing rates," Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. Markets added to bets of a March start to rate cuts and an interest rate of under 4% by the end of next year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold. But, "prices may have entered overbought territory and gold has been known to price in monetary policy expectations prematurely over the past two years," Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note. Boosting bullion's appeal, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped to a 12-week low and the dollar (.DXY) ticked 0.3% lower.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by DEXWireNews