YM-D-Tue-4-16-2024Downward channel since last 2 weeks. Last 2 candles - Last Bearish and current candle is Bullish and making lower lows.
UDF1! trade ideas
Three Aspects of a Trade Entry, Risk Management, ExitWelcome to our discussion on the three vital aspects of a trade: Entry, Risk Management, and Exit. Mastering these components is crucial for successful trading. Let's delve into each aspect, understanding their significance and how they contribute to your trading strategy.
Entry:
The entry point marks the initiation of a trade. While it may seem straightforward, it sets the foundation for your entire trade. When choosing an entry point, consider factors such as market trends, support and resistance levels, and technical indicators. Your entry should align with your trading plan and signal a high probability of profitability. Remember, a well-timed entry can maximize your potential gains and minimize risks.
Risk Management:
Effective risk management is the cornerstone of trading success. This aspect requires careful consideration and planning. Assess the amount of capital you're willing to risk on each trade and set appropriate stop-loss levels to limit potential losses. Remember, preserving capital is paramount to long-term profitability.
Exit:
The exit point marks the closure of a trade and realization of profits or losses. While it's often considered the simplest aspect, it's equally critical. Establish clear exit criteria based on your trading strategy, whether it's a predetermined price target, trailing stop, or technical signal. Stick to your exit plan without succumbing to emotional impulses or market noise. A disciplined approach to exiting trades ensures that you capture profits while minimizing potential losses.
Importance of Each Aspect:
Entry: Sets the stage for the trade and influences its outcome.
Risk Management: Protects your capital and ensures longevity in trading.
Exit: Determines the realization of profits and mitigation of losses.
In summary, prioritize each aspect of the trade process, giving due attention to entry, meticulous risk management, and disciplined exits. By mastering these fundamentals, you'll enhance your trading skills and improve your overall performance in the markets.
YM1 Idea for w/o 4/14/24 Still overall bearish.Still overall bearish, but if we could clear Fridays lows, we could possibly get a scalp in on the retracement to 50% of the fib off Fridays drop. The bigger move however would be the short. There's close liquidity to the sell side on the HTF (Daily).
Week of April 14th - Gold/Oil/DJI/VIX/10yrWhat a week we just had!
Friday we saw aggressive broad selling all the way into the close. The NDX is once again just flopping around in this multi-week range - while The Dow is meaningfully breaking down.
For indexes - I will be focusing on the Dow this week. The DJI has been super clean lately and is the only index really making the sizeable moves as it took out the February lows.
ALL of the major averages are rolling over on their daily charts.
Dow - Friday we saw aggressive selling all day long and this caused a weekly Market Structure shift on the weekly chart. From here the DJI needs to back test this weekly breakdown level and confirm the shift.
We have a weekly breaker that will provide the first resistance level around 39k. If we can get past that - we should pop to 39.4k or so.
There are a LOT of things that are aligned to enable the up move. DJI held its 100dma as support today and I am looking for a back-test into its 20dma or so.
VIX - Friday the VIX spiked in a big way and is breaking out of a 2 month daily range. This was driven by war fears in the Middle East. The simple fact is that everyone sold their stocks and bought bonds and gold and puts on Friday. If WW3 doesn't materialize by Monday - they will all be offsides and be rushing to enter the market.
I am looking for the VIX to get aggressively sold Monday if WW3 doesn't break out - which will be bullish for stocks.
DXY - DXY spiked into a daily level that I wanted to hold as resistance. DXY has broken out as everyone rushed into cash/bonds/gold - but again I want to see a ERL to IRL move to retest the breakout. A falling DXY (in the short term) will be bullish for oil and gold.
Crude Oil - Oil has been whippy lately and this to me shows how exhausted it is getting. going into this week. The weekly chart wants to trade 88 and then I think oil is due for a long grind lower as the markets continue to roll over. Oil should find some bullish legs to pop $3 as the DXY retreats during its back-test.
10yr Yield- Rates are going higher in the short run. I am looking for 4.7% to trade and I will be loading the boat with bonds around this level.
Gold- Gold cracked the $2400 level last night, and banks came in to mash the hell out of it all day on Friday. Nothing has broken on the 4hr chart - yet. But I have alerts set to I can start scouting for shorts.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
- I want to see DJI trade higher into the the weekly breaker block around 39k. From there I will be scouting for short entries.
-Looking for interest rates to continue to march higher - this will continue to apply pressure to indexes. Indexes will ignore rates (for now) as the VIX marches lower to confirm its breakout.
- Gold & Oil - I want to see these things top out and soon. Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI. Gold - we have to hold it here or we are going to start a down move.
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Using KEY price action analysis to refine EntriesHere is a short video on my key price action concepts which enable me to build a picture of what is happening and what side of the market I should be on.
I like to use Anchors to a trend and key levels to build the trades on a 5min and then use the 1min charts for the entries.
Enjoy the ramblings !!!
The basic concepts discussed are :
- Anchors
- Price Action
- Lower highs/Higher lows
- Multi-timeframe Analysis
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material **
** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Dow Jones(US30):🔴Possible scenarios🔴(Details on caption)
Well, as you can see Dow Jones in the daily chart swept the liquidity and created a new all-time high, then had a bearish reaction and shiffed the market structure as well.
after that, the price had a retracement from a bullish FVG to a bearish breaker block and continued to the sell side.
For now, there are two different bearish scenarios which I follow the first one.
First scenario: The price created the buy side liquidity below the balance price range in the premium. We all know it is a high-probability scenario that can push the price lower. So in this scenario, we wait to move higher, grab the buy side liquidity, and look for a sell position inside the BPR on a lower time frame.
Second scenario: If the price is strongly bearish we can expect the price to move to sell-side liquidity from inversion which has already tapped in.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️07/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
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YM1! - Better Bearish Order Flow $40,358 all-time highs was printed at the beginning of the week but a drastic sell-off led YM to sweep below the Feb 14th bullish fair value gap @ $38,909 before a late friday retracement.
Inverted fair value gap between the 18-20th Mar 24 has been attacked and respected on the Friday so I will be keeping a close eye on YM to see whether it could be the first mover to the downside.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dow to Consolidate and Move Down from HereYM (DOW 30), 4 Hour, Indicators: This is what I need to see turn to get confirmation on our short position up here. The 4 hour is still locked in "embedded" mode on the slow stochastic. My bet is that this is going to come off "embedded" and in the process swing back to the middle of the Bollinger band. . . if that happens, that would take us back to 39921 . . . there is your 300 points. Notice the resistance on the 4 hour from above . . . You also have the top of the BBs on the 4 hour up there. So, it makes sense that it would be a good place to sell off from. Obviously, our stop is back at B/E but, if we wanted too . . .beyond this 4 hour level would also be a good place for a stop. More downside for YM could develop if we bust through the 39900 level if this wedge gives out.
YM (US30, Dow Jones Industrial Aveage) Puts in a Double TopYM (US30) 4 Hour, Fibs: Traded the first bear fib after the double top and saw it trade past its objective yesterday. The Dow has been one of the weaker indices of late, after outperforming most of the year. It didn't even make it up to the 50% line, selling off at the 38.2% line in the initial down move. Then, yesterday, on the rebound, it traded it's halfway back short. ####TRADE ALERT####
YM (DOW 30)
Call: Short
Entry Type: Market 39320
SL: 39500
TP1 / TP2: 38636
################### Normal Size Position - Much Better Entry at A Series Fib with a Much Larger Reward:Risk 900 points of reward:200Points of Risk
YM ran to 40k without any resistance just like I said it wouldI've been saying for some time now that Dow Jones has _no_ relevant resistance till 40k and now here we are
If that resistance fades quickly then the next relevant resistance is at 45k and probably most retailers will come up with excuses to short it the whole way there also
"But how did you come up with that number?"
See for yourself heh this is a very clear cut chart at such high timeframes not too dissimilar to BTC and XAU
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
MMSM US30, Friday April 15thIf you look at the 4HR, US30 made a clear Smart Money Reversal, and we are going for a second phase distribution, aiming towards Previous Monthly Low, & external Sellside liquidity. We also have a bullish Fair Value Gap below that external liquidity, which could indicate a point of reversal where the sell program would be done.
Dow Jones Non Farm Payroll Day Trading GameplanI will try to formulate a gameplan for Friday's NY session for a possible day trade
Starting with the daily chart
Price was in a spike and channel pattern that just got broken out of with its 850 point drop from its high of day.
This is a sell signal for people that trade the daily chart.
Thursday surged off of the daily 21ema and the 21ema is now curling down. This indicates downside momentum.
Next up is the 30 minute chart
Price was basing near the lows of the channel. Price bumped its head up against the 30 minute 200sma and sold off to create the daily breakout candle.
Using range expansions, Thursday's price hit the 1 full expansion as noted by the teal line. This also so happens to be the price that Friday opened up at to the dot.
I will be looking for any green bars under the declining 30 minute 21ema to be eliminated by red for an entry short for the continuation down to either 1.5 or 2X range expansion. I don't know which one and so will pick the 1.5X to be conservative.
The setups will look like this
Using the 30 minute chart as my guide, I will short the lows of any green body's candle that pulls back into the declining 21ema
S&P 500, Nasdaq close slightly higher after soft services sectorThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher on Wednesday after data showing the U.S. services industry growth slowed further in March, but the advance was limited after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cut in interest was still not in sight.
Most of the major S&P 500 sectors advanced, led by gains in energy materials and communication services .
Powell reaffirmed in a speech on Wednesday that the Fed will stick to its wait-and-see approach as it considers when to start cutting rates given the continued strength of the U.S. economy and recent higher-than-expected inflation data.
A Review of Trades of Day 3 Day TRading ChampionshipUS30
BAD:
1.)Forgot to check NEws then TRaded before news: Rookie Mistake
2. )Didn't have a stop loss in place at 10am due to thinking time was available for a stop order and did not check news. News hit at 10am and ran the market higher while in a sell. Horrible trading execution.
3.) Got up from a trade due to a phone call distraction and have to move stop loss into a protective stop. lessing profits.
4.Lost 1,000 today
5. didn't allow day to materailize and stop hunt all three sessions at the end of day.
6. didn't wait for 9:30 to open and allow 30 Min to close. (10am news)
Good
1: Scalped 3 trades at the end of day for 10 Pips each, quickly moving stop loss into break even or profit off of prime levels. levels were low round number to low, and close to high roundd numbers. 10 pip scalps.
Correct about thesis needed to have more patience.
2: Protective stop +40 Pips
3rd DAy of the World Cup Trading Day trading competition3rd Day trading was rough. Missed opportunities and human error has caused some imperfect trades which cost us Money. Trading account in recovery mode only on Day 3!!!
Thought on US30Hello. I am the forescastah. We are all in some form our fashion. We try to use ours minds to predict price movement. Here are some of my thought on US30 today as we trade the third day of the world cup of Trading.
Rally Would Setup High RR Short.Markets have been selling hard recently. Done well with shorts but starting to feel it's a bit too easy.
Would be much more comfortable shorting into a rally.
This may or may not come, but at this point we can prep to trade momentum setups long if the bear move fails and then plan the retracement trade.
YM - Weekly Range AttackWe kept it short and sweet last week and my short term projections delivered just before reversing to current price now @ 40,140.
YM trading back into the median of the weekly range is still considered as a healthy retracement in a overll bull market.
It's also in-line with ES short term shorts.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dow Jones YM Weekly Day Trading Gameplan AprilUsing the teal line as the mean, every time price moves roughly 650 ticks above the mean, it snaps back.
We are pushing off the mean now and I believe will continue bullish up to 40,500 which is roughly 650 ticks above the mean.
Monday I expect a bullish continuation higher.
After the move is complete, I will be looking for the revert back to the mean. I don't know if it will move below the mean or not.
The move below the mean will be able to close that gap to the downside
The average range of a monthly candle is roughly 2500 ticks from high to low
Dow Jones Bullish Mean Reverting The Hourly Chart's 200sma is the same as the Daily Chart's 21ema
Price is mean reverting back and forth between the mean
Price is above the Hourly 200sma/ Daily 21ema, Bullish
Price does not respect the Hourly 21ema and trades back and forth between it.
The Hourly 21ema is the same as the 5 Minute's 200sma
The 5 Minute mean reverting back and forth above the Hourly 200sma. It seems to me that each move in the extreme position should not be trusted
I need to figure out when a move will continue with the 5 minute 21ema or will mean revert back to the 5 Minute 200sma.
YM1! - Keeping It Short, Sweet & SimpleSimilar to ES1!, I am expecting next week to be forgiving as we have seen a huge bullish run to 40316 without a retracement to the weekly EQ @ 39703 which I do believe is a strong possibility.
Any major movements, I will update this analysis.
39767 is t1
39703 is t2
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
YM Wednesday Big Sell Off Day? Fill In Gap At 39,150? 600 ticksA couple of pieces of information that I think will cause a sell off down to 39,150
A declining Hourly 21ema
A gap at 39,150
A rising 200sma that has been poked through last two times
Ramped volume from the FOMC
600 ticks seems really excessive for one session. Maybe two sessions.
Do I go for the throat and hold for a massive trade or do I take the base hit 2 to 1?
I don't want to be greedy but I also don't want to leave money on the table.
Maybe I will go in the middle just watch each hourly candle and close it when I see a fat red candle exhausting itself
