Noah or The Boy Who Cried Wolf?When I first started posting on Tradingview I was primarily focused on the broader markets and my expectation that we were nearing a generational top in multiple markets. In fact, by our estimation we should be the near the completion of a bull market that began at the bottom of the Great Depression lows.
I knew based on the price structure that the move up off the Covid lows would likely be the final move up to complete this generational bull market. I anticipated the 5000 level being significant so once I saw the pullback at 4800 in 2022 start, I began watching for its conclusion and the subsequent retracement back towards the high.
I did not expect the market to make a new high so I publicly begin calling out that a possible top was in back in May 2023:
Of course as we know the markets did not top and we have been on an almost parabolic rise since. While the size of this rally is unexpected, its resiliency is not. ALL bull markets die while clawing and grasping for every last scrap of liquidity.
With that in mind as the market reached critical junctions we prudently and publicly told people that a top could be imminent and to be extremely careful.
Yes, we added a healthy dose of hyperbole on the top. We felt that was necessary to hopefully shake whoever may see it out their drunken love with this bull market long enough to consider that the market was at extremes at almost every key metric...and you should pay attention!!!
Now we are at the point where I feel I need to make another bold public call:
SPX will most likely top at the 6400ish level sometime by January 15th 2025
We expect the decline that follows to feel "crash-like" from a sentiment perspective. Something similar to what we experienced, feeling wise, during the covid decline.
We expect the decline to last throughout 2025 into 2026 with price bottoming south of 4000 in the 3800 region (we will post more defined targets later).
So as you go through my posting history you will definitely see times where I have felt strongly that a top was imminent. You may think to yourself, "This guy is a crazy permabear who uses Elliott Wave mumbo jumbo to crystal-ball the market..no way he's right". And you know what..maybe you are right.
But you have to ask yourself:
Am I, metaphorically, the child from the story, "The boy who cried wolf", or Noah from the biblical account of the flood?
They both in their own way were screaming that "the sky was falling"...but one was actually telling the truth.
