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SPX500/ Trades Between (ATH) ZoneS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its all-time high (ATH) which is 6,099. It is currently trading within the ATH zone, which is located between 6,099 and 6,058, and continues to move toward 6,058. For the bullish trend to be confirmed, the price must break the previous high resistance at 6,099 with a confirmed close of a 1H or 4H candle. This would pave the way for the price to reach a new all-time high (ATH) at 6,143. The price is currently trading toward 6,058. If it breaks this level with a confirmed 4-hour candle close, the bearish trend will be activated, targeting the 6,022 level. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6099, 6143, 6185 Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis: ================ SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level. Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market 2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis) 3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025 ===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spranav
S&P500: Crossed under the 4H MA50. Bearish.S&P500 is headed towards a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.952, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 39.810) as today the price hit the 4H MA50 after more than 2 weeks. Every time the index crossed under the 4H MA50 since October 21st, it declined more to the 4H MA200. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up but short term the strenght behind the 4H RSI drop favors going short. Target a potential contact point with the 4H MA200 (TP = 5,960). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming. Chance of forming: <50%
SP:SPX
by StonkMarketParty
S&P 500 Index→Simple Analysis SP:SPX The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024: If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025). What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support. As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing.
SP:SPX
by MarketAnalyzar
S&P 500: Technical Insights and Trend ForecastS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its previous significant high and has already broken the key level at 6058. It is currently attempting to reclaim this level. As long as trades below 6058 will touch 6022. Bullish Scenario, A 4-hour candle close above 6058 will signal a potential reversal, targeting higher resistance levels. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: The trend remains downward while the price is below 6058. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum. Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%. A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 H4 | Falling to pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 6,020.01 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum. Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear. In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000. On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term. In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days. Volatility indicators: VIX: remains low IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference): Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades) Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level) On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Potential bullish bounce off pullback resistance?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 6,026.51 1st Support: 5,871.75 1st Resistance: 6,099.49 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
More 4.23 Fib Doom Posting We'll touch on all the main concepts of the thesis covered here in this post but it's already extensively covered in the below related post. For full context it's best to read that first: My betting pattern through these fibs is always the same. I'm always interested in fading moves at the 1.27 - 1.61 fibs. If those break I am always looking for strong momentum to the 2.20 fib. If and when 2.20 - 2.61 fills I am always looking for reversal possibilities and if 2.61 breaks I always expect it to go parabolic to the 3.xx fibs - and I'll always come in to try and fade the move again around the 4.23 and the 4.23 spike out. If and when a 1.61 breaks my overall thesis dramatically changes. For example, heading into the 1.61 on NVDA at 450 I was interested in possible reversal trades. Once I seen the 1.61 was probably going to break my forecast changed to a rally of a close to 200% in NVDA to fill the 4.23 fib. 4.23 fibs are extreme polarizing events. Extreme polarising events are what I most like to trade. If something might go up 50% or might go down 50% and I only have to risk 5% to bet on one or the other, I'm going to take those bets every single time. I know I am not going to lose over 85% of them (based on historic testing - past performance does not .. bla bla). When we're at a 4.23 in the grand scheme of things there are only really two things I see happening and both of them are notable changes in the tone of the trend. At the 4.23 the trend is either ending or it is heading into hyper performance. Here's an example of hyper over performance. If we draw a fib from the high to low of Black Monday, we can see there was a weak stall and retest of the 4.23 and after that the scope to make money as a bear was extremely limited for a significant period of time. Interestingly enough, when a bear move did come - it was just a retest of the 4.23. To me, it's a total no brainer to fade the 4.23 fibs. Since I know it's likely to be a polarizing event I know I can fade the high probability level for a reversal and if it does not work I can just flip long and make all my money back quickly. The area in which I have to be wrong relative to the area I can get my money back long is tiny. My area of pay off in the event of the 1.27 retest relative to my area of risk is tiny. And almost invariably I am long into the 4.23 hitting - so I've usually made a lot more in longs than I can lose fading the resistance anyway. NVDA is a classic example. Made more than enough in the 1.61 breakout into the 3.xx fibs to cover all the possible zones I'd want to short and be wrong in a runaway trend. Exceptional reversals have happened at 4.23 fibs. Many of the most famous reversals in history came right on that level. Here's the Depression. Filled the 4.23. Crashed all the way to the 1.27 spike out. That happened in 1929. All these years later, the exact same thing happened in the BTC top. Topped 4.23 and dropped all the way to the 1.27 spike out. Kinda weird. Especially after making the 4.23 top. And these are classic expressions of the bust pattern. Here is the self-same pattern expressed in the BB bubble and pop, taking 20 years to fill all the phases. If you'd drawn a fib on the 2016 pullback then you'd have watched SPX spike above the 4.23 early 2020 and then crash to the expected support fibs. Even although this move was "Entirely unpredictable" and "Purely based on a Black swan event" - it traded level to level exactly as the TA template would imply, and that implied move could have been charted in many years before the levels filled. ==== Big 4.23s. Now we've covered some conceptual stuff that allows you to understand the context of the 4.23 decision levels - here's a dump of big ones that have now filled. NVDA MSTR GOOG VOO TSLA DJI All of these are either at their test point of the 4.23 or they're at areas where real make or break points are because we either have the 4.23 heads fake (setting up devastating reversal) or we have 4.23 breaks which complete annul any big bear cases for the foreseeable future. Now that we have these major decision points, the velocity of markets should increase. This is true of both the reversal and breakout setups. If the breakout comes, it makes the previous trend look trivial (and the previous trend was exceptional so that would imply hyper parabolic markets). And if the 4.23s are actionable resistance levels, we'd be in the final throw before a dramatic risk off shift in markets. Quite legitimately, the most interesting spot I think stocks have ever traded in my entire trading life. In 2009 at the low, this fib could have been drawn and from as early as then we could have determined a massive decision comes somewhere 5,000 - 6,000. Using that could have got you short the exact high of 2022. Now we're waiting to see what happens on the break or fake action above the 4.23. Which ever way it goes this is, technically speaking, the most important inflection point we've had so far. Multiple years of trend up or down will likely be decided right here in this spot. Exciting times to be a trader, whatever way it goes.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
7
S&P 500: Riding the Wave of OptimismS&P 500: Riding the Wave of Optimism Amid Economic and Political Dynamics The S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, buoyed by tech-driven gains and investor optimism, even as mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties loom. Here’s a deep dive into the current market landscape and what it means for the benchmark index. --- Economic and Market Drivers Tech-Led Rally and AI Optimism The S&P 500's performance has been significantly influenced by gains in the technology and AI sectors. Investors are betting on the transformative potential of AI, propelling stocks like Microsoft and Meta to the forefront. However, regulatory scrutiny, such as the FTC's probe into Microsoft's AI software sales, introduces a layer of uncertainty. Resilient Labor Market While the Challenger Layoffs report showed a slight uptick, JOLTS job openings rose to 7.744 million in October, indicating a stable labor market. This balance supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy, as Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the economy’s strength and gradual progress in reducing inflation. Mixed Economic Indicators - **ISM Services PMI** fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, suggesting a slowdown in service sector growth. - **Durable goods orders** increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations and reinforcing the narrative of economic stability. - **Construction spending** rose 0.4%, signaling robust investment activity. - **University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Prelim** came in at 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%), showing slightly higher inflation expectations. - **University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim** reached 74 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8), reflecting improved consumer confidence. These data points reflect a U.S. economy navigating challenges while avoiding a hard landing—a scenario that fuels investor confidence. --- Federal Reserve Policy: A Turning Point? Fed officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, have hinted at the potential for a December rate cut, with futures markets now pricing in an **85% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction**, up from **67%** before the recent jobs report. Inflation progress appears to have stalled, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautioning that more robust measures may be necessary to meet the 2% target by 2025. The November jobs report further influenced expectations: - US Nonfarm Payrolls rose to 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised to 36k). - US Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - US Average Earnings YoY remained steady at 4% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). These figures reflect a labor market resilient enough to accommodate rate cuts, which could provide an additional boost to equity markets. --- Corporate Highlights: - Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding estimates, but missed on adjusted EPS, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. - Meta (Facebook) is aligning its strategies with evolving political landscapes, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeks to navigate regulatory and policy shifts. - *Microsoft faces FTC scrutiny, underscoring increasing regulatory challenges in the tech sector. Despite these challenges, corporate earnings have largely supported market valuations, adding another layer of support for the S&P 500. --- Seasonality and Sentiment: December has historically been a strong month for the S&P 500, driven by: - Holiday-driven consumer spending. - Portfolio rebalancing. - End-of-year tax considerations. snapshot The Fear & Greed Index, currently at 53, indicates a greed-driven sentiment. This optimism aligns with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts, reflecting a favorable market environment. --- Outlook: Optimism with Caution The S&P 500’s upward momentum is underpinned by strong tech-sector performance, resilient economic data, and seasonal tailwinds. However, challenges such as geopolitical risks, regulatory scrutiny, and uneven progress in disinflation could temper gains. The Fed's flexibility and potential rate cuts are positive signals for the market, bolstering growth-oriented sectors. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant, monitoring corporate earnings, economic releases, and geopolitical developments. In the near term, the S&P 500 appears poised to end the year on a strong note. However, with inflationary pressures, mixed economic indicators, and geopolitical uncertainties still in play, the path forward will require a delicate balance between economic stability and investor confidence.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate