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SPX trade ideas

SPX Pending Short: An expanding ending diagonalBased on my Elliot Wave analysis, I believe that S&P500 is right now in an expanding ending diagonal that still has one more 3-wave to go and we should see the peak reached on 1st Oct 2024, at the opening of Tuesday session. A couple of questions that is on my mind: 1. Will we see a throwover or a truncation? 2. Is the wave count correct? What if it has already ended? Self-doubt is a good thing for it pushes us to look deeper and try to find the answer, or we find a workaround. For me, my solution to "What if I'm wrong?" will be the red trendline. If SPX breaks this trendline, I will go short even if I don't see another 3-wave. Good luck!
SP:SPXShort
by yuchaosng
1
S&P 500 Index Irregular Correction➖ The SPX produced a higher high yesterday compared to mid-July. This higher high is part of an irregular correction. ➖ This higher high is the B wave of a major ABC. The high bearish volume on the 20th of September, the highest since March 2023, indicates that the bears are very active on this index. ➖ Selling pressure has been going up while buying pressure has been going down. ➖ Subtle signals are pointing toward a new drop in the coming weeks. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by AlanSantana
12
S&P 500 Consolidates as Investors Await Key Inflation ReportU.S. stock index futures slipped on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial inflation report, which could influence expectations regarding the size of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 has reversed from its all-time high (ATH) and reached the support level of 5,732. The price is expected to consolidate between 5,784 and 5,732 until a breakout occurs. A bullish trend would resume with a break above 5,784, targeting a new ATH at 5,890. Conversely, a break below 5,732 would confirm a bearish trend towards 5,675. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5732 Resistance Levels: 5784, 5805, 5890 Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5585 Trend Outlook: - Bearish: Below 5732 - Bullish: Above 5784
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5791 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, it seems that the price continues the upward movement in the wave “3” of the higher and lower order. This means that two scenarios are possible: 1) I expect a small correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5550, then continuation of the upward movement. 2) Price will continue the upward movement in wave “1”, possibly immediately to the area of 5791. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
S&P 500 ($SPX) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains BullishShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 5651.62 and dips in wave (2) ended at 5402.62. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave A ended at 5480.54, wave B ended at 5522.47, and wave C lower ended at 5402.62. This completed wave (2) in higher degree. Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 5495.14 and wave 2 pullback ended at 5406.96. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 5560.41 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5528.86. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 5670.81 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 5614.05. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 5689.75 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 5615.08. Index has extended higher again in wave 5. Near term, as far as pivot at 5401. low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Historic View of SPX on Log ScalePrice channel captures the overall trend of the S&P 500 across time, with three parallel lines outlining the upper, middle, and lower bounds of the price action. The channel effectively contains most of the historical price movement within its boundaries, showing long-term upward growth with corrections. Significant Historical Points: 1929: Marked near the top of the channel, this represents the peak before the Great Depression. 1932: A trough near the bottom of the channel, showing the market low during the Great Depression. 1942: Another market low during World War II. 2000: Represents the peak of the dot-com bubble. 2009: The low following the 2008 financial crisis. 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. 2022-2024: The most recent data shows the index near the upper boundary of the channel in 2024, indicating a period of significant market strength or potential overextension. The chart is logarithmic, with the price levels increasing exponentially from as low as $1.65 in the early 1900s to around $5,742 in 2024. The price axis reflects the long-term growth of the index.
SP:SPX
by PrestigeWorldwideTradingCo
Watch your longsSignificant bearish divergence on the Weekly RSI. Probably time to start taking some profits on those longs if you've not already done so. Recession rant: Are we due for a recession? OF COURSE WE ARE. Why? It's simple... nobody wants to work. Powell can cut rates all he wants and unemployment will keep rising not because there aren't enough jobs to go around, it's because ppl don't want to work. I live in a condo/hotel that's busy around the clock. Yet downstairs there's a cafe that's part of the hotel that's been shuttered since COVID. I asked management why they've never reopened and they say it's due to staffing issues. Major red flag to me... that a high-end hotel that can afford to pay its staff premium wages can't find enough workers despite overwhelming demand for services. Around me are 2 highrises leased by Google. They've remained vacant since the pandemic. Nobody wants to return to the office because they would then have to actually work... boohoo. The impression that our workforce has cast unto themselves that they are "just as productive at home" is complete delusion. If you haven't experienced a palpable drop in quality in almost EVERYTHING from groceries to web apps, then I dunno what to tell you. Productivity and expectation of is at an all time low... despite the market being at an all time high. The zeitgeist of the public isn't going to change overnight, it's gonna take some lean times to make people readjust what they're willing to accommodate. All I know is that the combination of AI eliminating jobs, rising unemployment, and the general lethargy from the workforce feel like ingredients to a cocktail in the form of a prolonged and painful economic recession.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by chinawildman
1
Bullish Stocks, But Watch Pullbacks and Gaps On SP500The stock market has been very bullish over the last two weeks, with strong gains this week following China's policy actions to support their economy. This has had a positive impact on stocks globally, and it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 trading higher. Looking at the December futures contract, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a five-wave movement up from the September 9th low. While this bullish momentum continues, it’s important to be cautious as we may be nearing potential resistance in this fifth wave, around the 5,820 to 5,880 area. I think that pullbacks could occur in the next few days, especially if USD stays up with yields. If we do see a correction, the key levels to watch would be the previous swing supports, with the first at 5,754 followed by 5,674. These levels also correspond to regions of open gaps on the cash market, and typically when such gaps are filled, the market can resume its primary trend, which is up. So, if an ABC drop occurs into one of these gaps, it could present an opportunity to rejoin the uptrend in the stock market.
CBOE:SPX
by ew-forecast
S&P 500 INDEX / Another ATH, WITH CORRECTIONS&P 500 Closes at Record Highs The S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, as we mentioned previously, Technically: The price will be consolidating between 5784 and 5732 till breaking, The bullish trend will continue towards another ATH at 5890 by breaking of 5784, However, a bearish trend will be confirmed if the price breaks below 5732 to get 5675. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5784 Resistance Levels: 5805, 5890 Support Levels: 5732, 5675, 5643 Trend Outlook: Bearish Correction till 5732 Bullish above 5784 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500 Bullish Wave CountI have been keeping this count and avoiding activating this count because of my bias. But recent events and how the market has been moving has forced my hand. I am showing this count on a weekly basis because there are issues with wave counting rules that shows up on the daily timeframe. Over here, what you see is that the 5th Aug fall is now a wave 4 on the highest level shown in this chart, and the move up since is a wave 5 move. This is consistent with the following events that are non-technical: 1. US debt ceiling removal until 1st Jan 2025. 2. US Presidential Election. 3. Sep Fed rate cut and probably further cut on or before the next FOMC. 4. China recent move that caused the Chinese and Hong Kong market to fly. The existing issues with IWM and Nasdaq still below peak and showing such divergence is still a going concern that we will need to continue to monitor.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by yuchaosng
SPX Is Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,722.39. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5,432.48 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP:SPXShort
by SignalProvider
1
Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets. Topics Covered: How Are Interest Rates Traded? Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself). █ How Are Interest Rates Traded? This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market. Key Strategy Concepts Backtested: Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism. Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth. Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons. █ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods. 2001-2009 Trade Result: 67.02% Holding Result: -31.19% 2019-2021 Trade Result: 19.28% Holding Result: 25.22% 1971-Present Trade Result: 444.13% Holding Result: 5694.12% █ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92% █ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54% █ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below. One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change. █ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself) Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open): The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
SP:SPXEducation
by TanHef