US500 (S&P): Trend in 2H time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Do not open a position without TP and SL.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
SP500 trade ideas
a two year bull market. what has changed?its been 756 days since the bottom in the s&p500. the weekly is on an extended bull run to the 6000 region. last week has been the biggest drop in volatility in this trend.
large risk on weeks come with pullbacks, but this week hasnt bearishly diverged from the trend yet.
fib time zone tells us the trend hasnt reached a local maximum yet. the general trend hasnt changed since monday may 15 2023.
since signal hasnt changed i wouldnt try to short this market yet.
a breach of this dopen would probably lead to a pullback around pmVAH, and i would look to do this by ftz 13. still a local bear move toward the 5800 region isnt unthinkable.
i would still rely on this broader market move setting higher weekly lows and vreaking to new all time highs for the foreseeable future, which is why im leaning long here, even with the advanced age of this bull market (even post election).
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!.
Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one.
6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit
for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SP500 double GapCould we see SP500 in the 5800 prices in the upcoming days or this double gap will be closed in months or weeks?
Always do your research
trump won, now whatThis is not a political analysis,idgf about who's your favourite party With that said:
An easy way to run ur economy to the ground is through price controls, which was part of Harris's campaign platform. Joe did a great job and arguably saved the U.S. economy from a slump with initiatives like the infrastructure bill and the CHIPS Act. However, what concerns the average American most are the prices of gas and food. Harris's solution to these issues is a price ceiling, which is why many people felt that the orange man solution is more realistic
however Tax cuts, the budget deficit, and inflation, along with tariffs, may lead the market to react positively a trend we have already observed. Inflation can drive growth for companies, which in turn boosts earnings and contributes to the US GDP growth. Additionally, the bond market is showing an upward yield curve, suggesting a liquidity preference, as money flows from risk-free investments like 10-year bonds into riskier assets such as equities or the stock market.
The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and efforts to reduce the balance sheet may be significant factors in this shift. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the potential outcomes of these tax cuts and policies, which could result in a labor shortage and disruption in the labor market. The inflation accompanying the tariffs could lead to economic contraction, posing risks.
Still, navigating these changes will not be plain, as the central bank is likely to respond to these policies, further deepening the uncertainty.
there will be also some actual improvement in terms of foreign policy which can also lead to capital flowing from outside into us markets
however, any sort of policy led by wall street has historically led to disasters and we expect no difference and the taxpayers will be left with the bill tap
again I do not cheer for any party or their ideologies we'll watch the same market on asymmetrical information so make ur own inference
S&P doesn't matterThe time is coming soon but when and at which price will be turned back maybe it is an opportunity to make lots of money hehe, let's wait for the price action and ride a wave hehe I am gonna be a rich person
SPX will reach 6000Stocks are going hyperbolic, not because of a healthy economy but because of unbounded inflation and QE infinity. 1929 will look like a firecracker when this explodes.
S&P500 (SPX500) index looks testing upper trend channelS&P500 index looks testing upper trend channel
This is a very long log charts of the S&P500 index.
S&P500 (SPX500) index looks testing upper trend channelS&P500 index looks testing upper trend channel
This is a very long log charts of the S&P500 index.
The S&P 500 is currently...The S&P 500 is currently hovering around record highs, with many analysts projecting further growth in the coming months. However, the market is facing several headwinds that could impact its performance:
Inflation: High inflation rates could lead to interest rate hikes, which could slow down economic growth and hurt stock prices.
Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China, could create uncertainty in the market.
Economic slowdown: A global economic slowdown could also negatively impact the S&P 500.
Despite these risks, many analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for the S&P 500. They believe that the US economy is strong and that corporate earnings will continue to grow.
Here are some resources that you can use to get more information about the S&P 500 forecast:
Goldman Sachs: www.forbes.com
FOREX.com: investinghaven.com
S&P 500 Forecast: Will Stocks Continue to Climb? www.barrons.com
It is important to note that no one can predict the future with certainty. The S&P 500 is a complex market, and its performance will be influenced by a variety of factors. It is important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPX : Saturn Squares Uranus (Heliocentric)The heliocentric Saturn-Uranus square is a potent astrological configuration known to influence significant market cycles, particularly in the SPX (S&P 500) often triggering periods of volatility and sometimes resulting in notable market crashes. Saturn, representing time, structure, karma, and restraint, squares off with Uranus, the planet of sudden change, innovation, and disruption.
This clash between the old and the new brings tension and unpredictability into financial markets, where structures that seem stable may suddenly face upheaval.
Market SnapshotA month or so ago we published an idea titled, Election Surprise, that essentially said it does not matter who wins the U.S. election...the market is still setting up for a massive downturn
What will be the catalyst?
Don't know but if we had to guess it will materialize in the Banking sector
Commercial Real Estate bubble finally bursting maybe?
Again we don't know or care what causes the downturn..we just know that something is coming and we are preparing accordingly
But hey..maybe we are wrong :)
Correction down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week my analysis of SPX500USD had been chosen for the Editor's Picks of Tradingview.
It was very funny to read many comments that my analysis was wrong and that it was more likely that this pair would drop then rise.
Now a week later we see who was wrong and who was right and who made a profit.
As a trader you always have to trust your own analysis. Don't listen to other opinions because that is mostly the losing mass that is speaking. I do this for 10 years and I know what I'm doing.
Now next week we could see the finish of wave 5 and after that a bigger correction.
Trade idea: Don't trade. Wait for the bigger correction down to start. After a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe you could trade (short term) shorts.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
$SPX The Hundred Years TrendThat's right..
The sheep were told we broke through the great depression trendline and to prepare themselves for a new paradigm..
As you can see we have broken through one of the great depression trendlines.
And Still you can see we have one to go..
Our last touch of this trendline ended up with a stiff rejection, and we are dangerously close to another fatal kiss.
If you haven't taken out a heavy long term short to cover life's everything,
it might be too late.
Only the strong will survive.
Are you Strong?
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index has exhibited significant strength by successfully filling the projected gap, as detailed in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis dated November 1. This upward movement has facilitated a substantial rebound, as the index has retested both the Outer Index Rally level of 5861 and the Key Resistance level of 5865. Furthermore, the index has completed the Outer Index Rally threshold 6000, suggesting a promising potential for additional increases toward Outer Index Rallies at 6123, 6233, and 6418. Nevertheless, it is essential to recognize that achieving the Outer Index Rally 6000 level may prompt a downward price movement towards the Mean Support level of 5929 before progressing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend
6000 spx before EOMMaking a public call on SPX, based on the current political climate, and the oversold signals, I'm focused on a new ATH push from here. I think a move similar to September 9th or way back in early January is on the table right now.
I'm currently trading in the LEAP comp for TradingView and wanted to make a public call that aligns with a trade I'm taking. Any Idea posted is being actively traded if possible in the competition.
SPX Short: Peaked?Based on the upper trend line and wave counts, I believe that SPX has finally reached it's peak (again). Note that I've also previously called for peak that turns out to be just sub-wave peaks instead of ultimate peak. That is, right in the short-term, wrong in the long-term. This is another attempt to call a long-term turning point.
S&P500 (1h) Golden Cross indicates extension of this rally.S&P500 is rising on its MA50 (1h) which has been holding for the 3rd straight day.
On Wednesday it formed a Golden Cross (1h), a standard bullish signal on the previous 2 Channel Up patterns since the August 5th bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6100 (+7.20% rise, similar to the previous Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is posting the same Bull Flag as on the previous legs.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone.
To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low.
Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out.
Now, we wait and see how this movie ends!
Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
S&P 500 - Why everyone is probably wrong.Popular YouTube channels, financial media, everyone is talking about the great big crash of 2023 to come.
Everyone is probably wrong. Why? The chart stupid.
The recent breakout of resistance is seen by many as a bull trap. Maybe. I see a backtest of past resistance and price action landing on the golden ratio. There’s something else, however. The Life cross. A life cross is defined as:
1) The 50-day SMA crossing up the 200-day SMA
AND
2) Price action above the 200-day SMA.
But WW this cross is a fake out! There’s no evidence to support that. Have studied the last 60 years of life crosses on the index. Do you know how many printed a false signal? 0. Nadda. Not one.
Ww
The last 20 years of life crosses..
July 8th, 2020
April 1st 2019
April 26th, 2016
February 1st, 2012
October 22nd, 2010
June 20th, 2009
September 12th 2006
November 10th, 2004
May 16th, 2003
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone,
Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community!
As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such.
One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as:
a) It is not inflation adjusted,
b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time,
c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range.
You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as:
a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years,
b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model,
c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down.
So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data?
Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances.
To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history.
Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%.
Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%.
How about normal, bull market years?
To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode.
First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain.
Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%!
Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close!
So what does this tell us?
Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years:
Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now!
The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following:
The mode is 15% and the median is 24%.
So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it.
Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years.
However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64.
I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell:
SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%.
SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%.
SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY:
Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15
Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67.
One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible?
This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move.
Safe trades everyone!
