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Weekly copper market review 12/07/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.5245 per pound. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, as net positions of the net commitments of traders at +79K are at historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low at 320691 MT. China, in November, developed at the fastest pace in 10 years, exceeding expectations. Currently, the manufacturing sector in the country is the main driver of copper demand worldwide. The increase in appliance sales, caused by the containment and rebound in car and truck production, has reactivated the manufacturing sector and led to the consumption of industrial metals such as steel, copper and aluminum. The relative scarcity of the red metal has pushed industrialists to accumulate copper stocks to face a possible 2nd wave in producing countries such as Chile or Peru. Caixin's manufacturing PMIs stood at 54.9 in November, exceeding expectations and expanding for the 7th consecutive month. Internationally, last week was marked by the sharp fall of the dollar. The DXY, after breaking through the resistance of the 92, is moving towards the 90's, and the Euro approached $1.22 after disappointing US empoys figures. Hopes for a vaccine, the FED reaffirming that the priority remains to support the economy, and the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for a $908 billion emergency plan are driving equity markets. Curiously, commodities as a whole did not benefit from the dollar's decline. Discussions between the British and the Europeans continue as the December 31 deadline approaches in the hope of reaching a post-brexit trade agreement. Regarding the pandemic update, we have just passed the 67 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.537 million deaths. The United States continues to be the most affected country with more than 282,000 deaths and more than 14.7 million cases. Italy has passed the 60,000 death mark, and the United States is facing a spectacular rebound of the epidemic with more than 230,000 cases in 24 hours on Saturday. The United Kingdom, the first country to authorize Pfizer vaccine, begins vaccination on Tuesday. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week was rich in results. Manufacturing PMIs all showed an increase, in China they stood at 52.1 in November against 51.4 in October, in the Euro zone they stood at 53.8 in November against 53.6 in October, in the US they rose to 56.7 in November against 53.4 in October. US job creation disappointed, falling to 245K against 610K the previous month. Orders to US industry were up 1.0% compared to 1.3% in October. - On Monday, Chinese exports rose by 21.1% in November and imports fell by 4.5%. - Tuesday, GDP in the Euro zone, the ZEW index of economic sentiment. - Wednesday, inflation and producer prices in China. - Thursday, inflation and U.S. unemployment registrations. - Friday, U.S. producer prices and Michigan consumer confidence index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 149675 MT from 150775 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose to 97783 MT from 92912 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 73233 MT for 74019 the previous week. - Total copper inventories increased to 320691 MT compared to 317706 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 90.701, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY after breaking the 92 resistance, plunged last week and is on its way to the 90. The Euro rose as high as 1.2175 on Friday after very disappointing U.S. employment figures. As a backdrop, Powell said the priority remains to support the economy, and Democrats and Republicans are working together on a $908 billion emergency support proposal as a first step. For later, once the Joe biden administration is in place, work for a more substantial plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. A low dollar is generally good for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 79.856 K instead of 73.771 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Elliott Wave view: Copper (HG) Still Has Further UpsideShort term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG) suggests that the dips to 3.11 on November 11 ended wave ((ii)). The metal has resumed higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 3.52. Internal of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave i ended at 3.26 and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.169. The metal resumed higher in wave iii towards 3.3, and pullback in wave iv ended at 3.235. Final leg higher in wave v ended at 3.33. This completed wave (i) in higher degree. The metal then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 3.28. Up from there, wave (iii) ended at 3.50 with internal also as a 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. From there, dips to wave (iv) ended at 3.43, and wave (v) completed at 3.52. This 5 waves move higher ended cycle from November 11 low in wave ((iii)). The metal then pullback in 3 swing (w)-(x)-(y) which found buyers at the blue box equal leg area. Wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 3.439 and copper has turned higher from the blue box. It now needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 3.50 to avoid a double correction. As far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 3.11 stays intact, dips should continue to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing for more upside.
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Copper turning point?Technical: An hour precision chart indicates possible head and shoulder formation, negative RSI. Day precision chart indicates RSI almost at its 80s and if a divergence is to be build somewhere there is a high chance it is here. Fundamental: Low stockpile of copper in China has inspired a rally but at this level of stockpile ALWAYS in the past we have seen a move that rebuilds it fast within a month. Take profit 2.5 It would be great to see gold retest 1850 from bottom and then all commodities could initiate a simultaneous correction. In the long term commodities (obviously not all of them) can only rise.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by deejayzajac
Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months. Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October. - On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI. - On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation. - Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations. - Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review