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AU1! trade ideas

Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 11th March 2024For your Analysis and Study only Range for positional Trade:- above 2042 we can target for 2439 to 2448 Range for Swing Trade:- - above 2042 we can target for 2259 to 2302 Range for Intraday :- above 2218 we can expect around 117 to 137 Max points movement below 2151 or 2166 we can expect around 71 to 92 Max points movement Intraday detailed levels as below. If Sustain above 2187 then 2203 then 2213 to 2218 above this bullish then 2239 or 2243 or 2247 then 2259 then 2302 then 2336 then 2346 to 2349 then 2355 If Sustain below 2182 then 2166 or 2151 strong level then 2144 to 2141 then 2120 then 2073 to 2069 then 2050 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock and commodities trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 12th April 2024Levels recorded at 6:30 PM IST Today watch for around 2393 and 2388 levels . this are important levels .. if Sustain above 2393 then 2395 then 2397 then 2413 then 2418 to 2418 or 2419 above this more bullish then 2426 to 2429 then 2437 then 2441 to 2442 if Sustain Below 2388 then 2383 then 2379 then 2372 then 2369 then 2365 to 2364 below this more bearish then 2349 then 2346 to 2344 then 2339 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 11th April 2024Note :- this levels are for Gold COMEX Future , the regular trading hours starts at 7:00 PM IST. Levels recorded at 6:20 PM IST Today around 2352 is important level, watch for reversal or breakout. if Sustain above 2352 then 2365 then 2372 then 2376 Strong level above this more bullish then 2391 then 2395 to 2397 then 2401 if Sustain Below 2349 or 2346 then 2333 to 2332 then 2328 or 2325 below this more bearish then 2314 then 2310 then 2304 to 2302 or 2300 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 10th April 2024Levels recorded at 6:40 PM IST As per my analysis around 2372 is an important level. if Sustain above 2372 then 2379 then 2383 then 2395 to 2396 or above this bullish then 2419 to 2421 if Sustain Below 2372 then 2365 then 2349 to 2348 or 2346 then 2339 below this more bearish then 2333 to 2332 then 2325 to 2324 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
2
The Fed Minutes should provide clairity on Gold's directionThe commodities space is thriving thanks to the positive influence of geopolitics, central bank buying, a surge in manufacturing, and a robust economy. These factors have ignited a widespread rally in the precious metals space, painting a promising picture for investors and traders. Today, we are eagerly awaiting the release of the March CPI print, a crucial economic indicator. The consensus is that the core CPI will show a month-over-month increase of +0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.4%. Additionally, the CME FedWatch tool suggests a 50/50 chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut in June, adding to the anticipation. Later in the session, we will have the March FOMC minutes, where Fed officials previously projected three interest rate cuts in 2024 and cited, "We are not concerned about January and February's higher than expected inflation data." Today's number could confirm that January and February were just a "bump in the road." So we continue to hang on the balance of two to three interest rate cuts. The path of least resistance looks to remain higher in Gold, fueled by Central Bank buying, a softer U.S. Dollar, and weaker treasury yields, despite a repricing from six interest rate cuts in 2024 to now two or three. We will continue to monitor $2400 as the next likely upside target, while $2350 remains critical support. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Dxy and the metals4.10.24 In this video I thought I would go through the process of deciding if there was a trade or not on the dxy... I would lean towards this market going lower and I explain why even though I would not take a trade on the dollar because it's too contracted and isn't worth the effort because I'd rather trade more volatile markets such as the metals or oil although oil is not moving in a way that would entice me to a trade. The metals are very bullish, But they have completed ABCD patterns which would entice me to look for at least temporary correction lower. however the price action is so bullish I can't really say that I see the Sellers in a convincing way. What I didn't say in the video is that these kind of situations definitely work themselves out... and if you refrain from being too impulsive and getting into markets that are not clear.... you will find the right opportunity And a good probability reversal trade if you're patient.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Gold, How High Can it Go?Gold (June) / Silver (May) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2351.0, up 5.6 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 27.807, up 0.304 Gold futures have now set a fresh record high for the eighth straight session. Although Silver is well below its 1980 and 2011 record highs of $50, the underlying strength exuded in recent sessions is certainly nothing to ignore. The first task for Silver is clearing and holding above what has become a psychological barrier at $30. Days like yesterday, where what feels like a precipitous drop is quickly reversed back into positive territory, are likely going to become more of the norm, but with wider ranges, and doing so is an exhibition of such underlying strength. Still, risk management is key and that is why our trade desk is here to help, always feel free to reach out. Gold is in unchartered territory, therefore, we are using extension levels from multiple historical ranges, and it is trading into a sticky spot redefined by 2366.1-2372.5 as today’s pivot and point of balance and 2380.2-2384.5 as major three-star resistance. With Silver, continued resilience above a new handle (28 versus 27) should pave the way for a test of major three-star resistance at 28.52-28.57 on the session. From there, we brace for tomorrow’s CPI data. Bias: Bullish Resistance: 2380.2-2384.5***, 2400**, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1**** Pivot: 2366.1-2372.5 Support: 2348.1-2351***, 2344.3-2345.4***, 2321.7-2325.3***, 2315.7**, 2298.7-2299.6***, 2285.7-2286.2***, 2279-2281.8*** Silver (May) Resistance: 28.20**, 28.52-28.57***, 28.71-28.90**, 29.22***, 29.88-30.35*** Pivot: 27.99-28.01 Support: 27.80-27.87**, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48*** CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 9th April 2024if Sustain above 2358 then 2371 to 2375 then 2383 to 2391 or 2396 above this bullish then 2419 to 2421 if Sustain Below 2351 to 2350 then 2346 then 2324 then 2321 below this more bearish Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Old Resistance Becomes New Support! Gold futures have gone parabolic this year, outperforming Stock Indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Can this rally continue? Or can we continue to make new all-time highs in what may be a new “Bull Cycle” for the precious metal. Key Drivers: Gold is typically sensitive to monetary and fiscal tightening. When interest rates and government spending are at tighter levels, the metal typically struggles to push higher. However, this has not been the case with this rally, despite the 10-year yield climbing 50 basis points YTD, the metal has continued to break records. There seems to be more macro influences in this rally, for example resilient US economic data, and bets that the Fed will deliver fewer rate cuts than previously priced in are lending support to the dollar. That is weighing on the Chinese Yuan. The PBOC is one of the largest holders of US treasuries, and it is possible that they may be selling US treasuries to purchase even more gold. They now hold about 72.74 million toy ounces in reserves, up from 66.50 million troy ounces this time last year. Technicals: Technically, Gold futures are overbought, as the RSI shows a level above 75. Old resistance of 2082-2105 will now become new major support. This level also coincides with the 21-day EMA. If we have a large pullback, we will want to hold this level to keep bullish momentum intact. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?Intricate dance between gold and copper prices is a tale beyond mere metals. It reflects global economic sentiments, industrial demand, geopolitical angst, and investment trends. Gazing into the crystal ball to decipher the future of the gold to copper ratio, a fascinating narrative unfolds, particularly highlighting copper's brighter prospects. Copper is displaying record futures premium unseen since 1994 fueled by supply side concerns. Beacon of positive economic data from China, is helping Copper shine brighter than Gold. This paper delves into the forces propelling copper and illustrates how portfolio managers can use the gold-to-copper ratio to gain risk reduced exposure to copper’s ascent. COPPER SUPPLY IS FACING PLENTLY OF HEADWINDS Mined copper and Refined copper are facing potential supply disruptions. Copper miners have benefited from the growth in supply over the past year. Australian mining giants reported higher annual copper production (BHP up 7% and Rio Tinto up 3%). Both benefited from a higher realized price. Copper mining costs for Australian miners were higher due to outages. While copper operations have done well, other commodities have not. Iron Ore, Aluminum, Platinum Group Metals, and Nickel prices are performing poorly. This has negatively impacted performance of mining majors. BHP profit was flat while Rio Tinto was down 9%. It is likely that miners will start scaling down production to boost profitability. Some have already started. For instance, Anglo American announced that it would lower its copper production guidance by 20% to 730k-790k tonnes. Mine outages are another source of concern. Macquarie Bank highlighted that disruptions remain elevated resulting in supply deficit of 700k tonnes in 2024. Copper shortage risks exacerbating the ongoing raw material shortage at refiners. Chinese copper smelters announced a rare joint production cut last month due to shortage of ore. Consequently, Chinese copper spot treatment charges (measure of refiner profits) plunged 75% in merely two months. Recent guidance from BHP (+7%) and Rio Tinto (+11%) point to a sharp increase in copper production signaling strong demand. Rio Tinto’s own smelter projects are coming back online this year, and its guidance suggests refined copper production will surge 40%. This will exacerbate ongoing raw ore shortage. COPPER FUTURES PREMIUM SURGES TO HIGHEST SINCE 1994 Potential supply disruptions are evident in the market. The contango for copper futures on CME Group is sharply steeper signaling even higher prices in the future. Source: CME QuikStrike Front-month futures are trading sharply higher than the spot price. According to Bloomberg, the gap between LME copper 3-month forward and cash market is at its highest since 1994. Copper prices are clearly sensitive to supply side shocks. CHINA’S RECOVERING ECONOMY SUPPORTS COPPER DEMAND Copper prices are shining bright. Supply constraint is not the only reason. Demand outlook is promising. Chinese economy has started to build up pace. Outlook however remains uncertain. Copper is overwhelmingly impacted by industrial and manufacturing activity and growth. Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI surged from 50.9 to 51.1 in March. It marked the fifth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion which augurs well for copper demand. However, demand side headwinds remain. Besides manufacturing, housing is a key sector driving copper consumption. Housing construction consumes copper for wiring and piping. Persistent housing slowdown will drag down copper demand. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BULLISH COPPER COPPER GOLD Both copper and gold exhibit strong bullishness. Technical signals for copper are marginally greater than those for gold. Copper shows stronger positive momentum according to RSI while Gold’s momentum is fading. Gold also faces resistance at its R1 pivot point while copper has found support at its R1 pivot point. OPTIONS MARKET BODE WELL FOR COPPER RELATIVE TO GOLD Positioning on CME options market signals that both copper and gold have a bullish outlook. However, copper’s put/call ratio is lower, indicating a more bullish sentiment. Unlike gold, copper has seen a buildup of bullish positioning over the past week too. COPPER CME copper options have a put call ratio of 0.44 as of 4/April. Source: CME QuikStrike Changes to open interest have been bullish with a larger growth in calls relative to puts over the past week. GOLD CME gold options have a put call ratio of 0.72 as of 4/April. Source: CME QuikStrike Puts open interest has been on the rise, especially in near-term contracts over the past week. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS ALSO FAVOR COPPER OVER GOLD COPPER Asset managers have switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month in CME copper derivatives. However, the most recent report shows short positioning being built up sharply. GOLD Asset managers built up a large net long position beginning March in COMEX Gold. Since then, positioning has since remained unchanged at net long. Asset managers have also been consistently scaling back short positions over the last month. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Copper is faced with the potential of worsening supply disruptions. Supply of raw ore for refiners is already disrupted, forcing them to become unprofitable. This situation is likely to worsen as Rio Tinto’s smelting plants come online through the year consuming even more raw ore. Supply of ore is also being cut by miners as they face unprofitable conditions. Supply of ore is also rising. Australian miners stated that production is expected to rise this year. Supply may become resilient if refiner’s scale back production. Demand favors copper with consistent economic recovery in Chinese manufacturing. Housing remains a headwind creating downside risk to demand. Copper prices are high and so is uncertainty on the path ahead. Prices are up 10% YTD as of 4/April. As such, a straightforward long position is risky. Demand at present is not higher, as suggested by the spot discount. In case the disruptions do not materialize, prices could pull back sharply. Alternative to an outright position in copper is the Gold-Copper ratio which exhibits strong mean reversion. The ratio is also elevated right now, owing to the massive rally in gold prices through 2024. Gold is trading near its all-time high, which is limiting demand and further price appreciation. Contrastingly, copper is still far from its highs of 2022. Expecting copper outperformance, a short position in the gold-copper spread can be used to gain exposure to copper’s tailwinds with lower risk. The following hypothetical trade setup comprises of a long position in CME Micro Copper Futures and a short position in CME Micro Gold futures. The position requires two contracts of Micro Copper for each contract of Micro Gold to balance the notional values. Each Micro gold contract provides exposure to 10 troy ounces of gold (representing a notional value of ~USD 23k. Each Micro copper contract provides exposure to 2500 pounds of copper (representing a notional value of ~USD 10.6k). • Entry: 558 • Target: 531 • Stop Loss: 567 • Profit at Target: USD 1,402 • Loss at Stop: USD 333 • Reward-Risk: 4.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by mintdotfinance