O87 trade ideas
GLD/SLV RatioThis is starting to fall and it looks like the silver (and gold) rally could continue for a bit. Be patient here. Looking for $7.48 but may not happen on this move,
GLD - break out , watch for continuation trade.With current overbought environment on the market, gold is ok bet.
GLD - Perking Up!GLD is starting to perk up and the second of the flag patterns on this bull run looks to be ending and starting the next leg up. Look back to the prior bull run from 2009 to 2011 and you will see 6 such flags (and maybe more). The impulse leg that started this summer and ended in September took out three prior green peaks and over shot the fourth peak (yellow) before consolidating back at the highest of the three green peaks. The impulse leg that appears to be starting now should make it to at least the orange peak before some backing and filling is necessary. To confirm the current impulse leg is legit, I would like to see a close above $143 on GLD. MACD and RSI very favorable. 2020 should be one heck of a ride. Fed on hold and low interest rates should be favorable to gold and other commodities. Inside the metals space I like GDX, SLV. PAAS, and NEM as long term plays. Miners showing solid strength and both PAAS and NEM have been very strong the last month. I would trade NUGT at very overbought and oversold conditions for those that need the extra juice. Outside the space I like RIG and X as log term holds and I also like SIEN and VSTO but the latter two still have to convince me they are legit. I expect big things over the next 12-18 months for these stocks, There are some watchlist items as well including CWH, AOBC, and maybe good old GE and M. Can't predict the future but I much prefer the charts of the names mentioned than those of AMD, AAPL, SMH, and all of its ilk. Only time will tell but a reversion to the mean appears to be upon us and long overdue. Merry Christmas traders!
$GLD BreakoutKeep an eye on unemployment report coming out Thursday 12/26. Market at all-time highs again; it doesn't last forever.
GLD - Moving Higher!Gold appears to be making a series of higher highs and higher lows after bottoming last month. Volume drying up during correction phase and MACD and RSI are favorable. Time of consolidation is also looking in line with prior consolidation periods. Be patient. 2020 is going to be a good year for the yellow metal.
GLD/SLV - Ratio revisitedGLD/SLV ratio is starting to roll over. Looks like a rally in gold and silver is finally coming. A break of the bottom support line and I suspect that we will see 7.50 as a first level of support. Remember this ratio falls as gold and silver rise primarily due to silver's ability to outperform on a percentage basis as gold has a law of large numbers issue going on. Looks like we are getting close. This chart follows the overall market fairly well when you look at the NYSE. Market can't rise forever. Continuing to be patient.
$GLD long on a break above $140, upcoming bullish seasonalityAMEX:GLD - $GLD is in a down trending channel, a break above the top, around $140, should challenge the recent high of $146.82, we also have a strong seasonal upward move coming.
Gold - I think we replay July 2008 in terms of Gold fractalsShould see sharp down over next few weeks
Long-term potential for gold remains strong!• Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
• Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.
Long-term breakout
Following the August 2018 swing low of $111.06, GLD rallied 32.2% to the September 2019 high of $146.82. That rally found resistance in the area of Fibonacci confluence, including the 50% retracement of the full downtrend measured off the 2011 peak, which was at $143.04. Note that the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) was quite overbought at that point (83.52), the most overbought since the extreme 2011 peak (83.87).
A bullish crossover of the 10-week exponential moving average (ema) and the 34-week ema occurred at the beginning of 2019. Most importantly, the rally took GLD out of a bottoming pattern to a 71-month high. Once $131.15 (July 2016 swing high) was broken to the upside price advanced to the September 2019 high with conviction, as there was barely a pullback of any significance.
Normal retracement to date
As is normal in financial markets, once a breakout of significance occurs (multi-year breakout off bottom in this case), price will retrace some degree of the advance towards the breakout area. The degree of retracement will vary and may provide some insight into the characteristics of the trend pattern. Following the retracement, a resumption of the initial trend can be expected unless shown otherwise.
To date, the retracement has reached $136.19, thereby completing a minimum Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% (at $136.40). Volume has been falling as price declines. Note that price has fallen below and closed below the 10-week ema (blue line) for the past five weeks and tested it as resistance for the past four. This is a sign of short-term weakness and points to further selling pressure unless something changes (such as daily close above last week’s $139.57 high).
Multiple lower possible support zones
If price does continue to fall, then watch the next three potential support zones for subsequent signs of a bullish reversal:
1. 133.88 – 133.00
2. 129.78 – 128.32
3. 125.20 – 124.72
Each price zone is derived from multiple Fibonacci retracement and projection levels, as well as prior price pivot levels.
GKD Bull FLag monthly
just now
We have a Bull Flag on the monthly for GLD, Price movement is expected to be around $12-$15 I'm going to play the options on this; buying the 45 Strike on Exp 20 March 20, if I want to lower my risk, I can turn it into a debit spread by also selling the 150 strike onEx [ 20 March 20 .. as of the writing of this the debit spread would cost $59 with a profit potential of $441, A very nice Risk to Reward.
Iron Fly GLDIron fly on GLD
134/139/139/144 EXP Jan 17
0.17/0.47/0.52/0.144
Credit collected was $296.
Max loss is 204.
Looking to profit $75, order set to take profit at the 25% point.
GLD/SLV Ratio - Ready to fall!As you can see today's rally in the market hit resistance at the underside of the support channel. SLV disproportionally lower than GLD today helping the spike get there. This is directly correlated with SPX/SPY failing at 3118. This has a long way to go on the downside. SLV should outperform GLD very shortly and the market should roll over at the same time. Typically a run in silver and gold will cause this ratio to fall. As you can see as GLD and SLV digested their summer gains and the market reached new highs this has made it to an inflection point. Too many other indicators out there confirming all these inflection points. Keeping fingers crossed here.
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GLD - still a little room to run!Not looking for too much more in this rally but I do see GLD making it ti resistance. Maybe another day or two as the overall market picks up downside momentum. Just doesn't feel like the turn to me but keeping fingers crossed that achange of character is coming about.
