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NG1! trade ideas

Energy prices could go up - especially Natural GazHello Natural Gas just had a breakout this friday (traders knew something?) and it is in wave (5). Wave 3 and 1 are of similar size, with (3) being slightly bigger than (1). It seems reasonable to bet on (5) being the extended one and going all the way to 161.8% of (3). There is something happening in the world, we are seeing more and more "Rubicon crossed" events: - Donald Trump disobeying congress and his supporters storming the capitol on June 6 - Imran Khan (Pakistan) supporters burning down politician houses - Bolsonaro (Brazil) supporters were ready to assault government buildings with weapons - Wagner walked on Moscow (might be a psyops) You had more like this, less significant examples, such as generals in France addressing an "emergency letter" to the government, because of migrants in "ghettos" causing a lot of trouble and not having jobs. And democracy is fading, in France votes are sometimes not respected (Europe votes), the government is ruled by some "shadow" EU government in Brussels, people other than boomers do not vote anymore, and the politicians know that if they do nothing the far right will be in power in a few years. So what are they doing to "save democracy"? I have noticed a significant increase in the number of migrants - there are now countless black men everywhere, they expect me not to notice? They are bringing in migrants for their votes! Democracy working as intended. This is what Sudan did to grab the oil fields if I am correct : send in the arabs south so the vote will be a "remain". Germany is in a deep recession, Europe is falling to pieces, Russia is winning hard. It is looking like the last years of the Roman republic. Let the west fall apart so we may pick up the pieces. This decade will see a significant shift in the world. As long as it means more money for me... A big reason for the recession in Europe is gas prices. Guess who is the biggest gas exporter? Russia. Instability in Russia and Europe can lead to much higher prices. Wagner went from 200km away from Moscow to 100km from Kiev, there is something fishy, plus now isn't Putin allowed to declare martial law and do whatever he wants? Nothing ever happens, and it has been a slow slow year trading wise. But now things are moving (I hope) and prices will move to. If the US stock market could go away from uncertainty and confirm it's in a bear market that would be great, or it can go up I don't care. Might go up while everything is burning down, the gready morons in charge would rather see crowds play basketball with their freshly chopped off heads than see their net worth go down. When you think a handful of greedy individuals are controlling the market : Vanguard + BlackRock + State Street + the FED = probably over 50% of the impact on the market. And companies do whatever they tell them to, be it buybacks or the woke stuff, even as leftists threaten them violently because of buybacks, or right wingers now have embraced the cancel culture which is starting to hurt companies. Blackrock and Vanguard do not care, they control it all, if 1 company gets cancelled into bankrupcy they can focus on another one, they own them all and people still have to eat, makes no difference to them. Where are the anti-trust rulings? Where is the dissolution? If it gets broken apart by the government - OR if they get ripped to shreds by a private army / revolutionary leftists or fascists it's going to be raining money. The never dying 80 year old boomers in government are going to have to go violently. Putin is one of them, I do not know if he was a mastermind with what happened this weekend, or if he got old and failed to resolved the issue between Wagner and the MOD. When communism ended in Russia a few people seized the opportunity and became the new oligarchs. Whatever happens next, it will be for us to seize the opportunity. I don't need to become an olygarch I'll be happy with a few really good trades. We have been bored out of our minds (at least since Bitcoin in 2017 minus the 2020 covid USD rally), we have slept long enough we are ready for crazy times. Unlike other assets Natural Gas has been trending, I have big hopes for this one. Something like this would be great (one can always dream) : And for anyone living in Rus', I hope you stocked up on food and water (at least). Good luck to all.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by MrRenev
2
NatGas: Come on! 👏NatGas needs to show a bit more motivation to complete wave 3 in green, as we expect the corresponding top near the upper end of the white zone between $1.88 and $3.43. After the price has also dealt with the short counter movement of wave 4 in green, it should finish the green five part upwards movement, rising from the white zone toward the top of wave iv in pink. As soon as this is placed, we reckon with a significant downwards movement, which should lead to the low of wave 2 in green before the ascent can start anew. However, there is a 40% chance that NatGas could leave the white zone on the lower side prematurely, thus developing wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
Pushing the gasNYMEX:NG1! Buy at 2.642 or lower Stop: 2.614 Notes: The model: The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell. On winning trades after 1 day take at least 1/2 of the position off
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by IngenuityTrading
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared. This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation. It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL. Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe. I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable. Just look how big the discount is on the monthly: One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April. Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs. Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM. All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot. The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down. It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8. What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry. One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy. I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low. We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like: Equities correct USD up Energy up Metals up 10Y yield up VIX up Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans. The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market. Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back. A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances. In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap. How hot will July, August, and September be in North America? Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive. Are you really expecting $1.50?
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
25
$4 Nat Gas during the summer?$4 Nat Gas during the summer? Natural gas prices behave extremely seasonally. In the past, due to the increasing demand for natural gas to power air conditioners during the summer season, we have noticed that the price of gas tended to increase significantly as the season approaches Summer this year could be different than usual, with forecasts showing we are set to experience a hotter-than-expected summer spell across much of the continent. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency) has announced the arrival of El Niño for June 8, which means higher than usual temperatures in both summer and winter. Another boon for natural gas comes from Europe. Due to concern about its environmental impact, the Dutch government plans to permanently close the Groningen gas field, the largest in Europe. This will have a significant impact on gas supply in Europe. The Dutch government's unexpected decision triggered a wave of hikes in European gas prices, with TTF energy futures surging more than 50%. NG1 In the short run, prices can continue to fall. If you've been following my posts, you know that on June 26, I entered into a natural gas short transaction. After having finished their maintenance work, several manufacturers are back in business and there is the disadvantage of no longer having to face the stifling heat like in the last period in the USA. On the other side of the world, encouraging news is coming from China with demand remaining robust. The overproduction of natural gas does not lead me to consider a purchase at the moment. It will take more than three months in extreme weather conditions for storage levels to normalize. While summer demand will certainly be high, winter is still the time of year when US gas demand peaks. I am carefully following the weather forecast, in order to close the short position in profit. If natural gas prices fall near their yearly lows, I will consider buying if I see forecasts of extreme temperatures to capitalize on a near-term price rally. Given the conditions of the futures curve, it is not possible to take long-term buying action, as the curve is in contango. This situation arises when the curve slopes upwards and gas prices for future deliveries are higher than the current price. This phenomenon reflects the cost of storing the gas. So if you want to store gas for delivery in August, the futures cost must be higher than the spot price to reflect that expense. Author's note: The information and content provided on this site should not be considered as an invitation to invest in the financial markets. The Content is a personal opinion of Mr. Antonio Ferlito.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
3
I love Nat Gas futuresI hope you enjoy this one. I hope it doesn't disappoint. Assuming the future is already known and the drawings are inspired by the future, will the result of this exercise disappoint? If it doesn't disappoint, and it is interesting, what other explanation can there be for this phenomenon? Big Algos controlling the markets? Future already simulated with supercomputers? Then how am I able to draw these charts without any help from external information? After writing this description I changed my mind. I hope it disappoints. :)
RUS:NG1!
by nen
10