GAZP trade ideas
Navigating Sanctions: Ruble Transaction and Energy SettlementsThe inclusion of Gazprombank in the sanctions list has introduced significant challenges to payment transactions, particularly those involving the Russian ruble. Due to the necessity of involving Russian correspondent banks, ruble settlements now carry considerable risks. Most Russian banks being under sanctions exacerbates these complications, rendering ruble transactions a sensitive and largely opaque area.
Here are 4 key observations:
1. Ruble Settlements and Sanctions Risk: Any acknowledgment of ruble transactions could be interpreted as a sanctions violation. As a result, the focus has shifted toward preserving settlements in Western currencies or those of "friendly" countries. These funds eventually enter Russia through intricate and less transparent financial circuits.
2. Offshore Ruble Market Feasibility: The creation of an offshore ruble market appears unlikely at this stage. Companies operating internationally often receive payments in dollars or euros but face challenges converting these into rubles for domestic operations. This reliance underscores the fragility of the existing external financial circuit.
3. Corporate Adaptation Examples:
Lukoil: This energy giant uses accounts in Middle Eastern banks to receive foreign currencies . While these transactions provide temporary access to rubles, they remain exceptional rather than standard practice.
Rosneft: The company has restructured its oil sales strategy. By using subsidiaries in India to refine crude and sell petroleum products, Rosneft creates a less transparent financial flow. Although high oil prices currently mitigate risks, a potential decline in prices could expose vulnerabilities in this approach.
4. Fragmentation of Settlement Schemes: As old financial pathways are dismantled, companies are left to develop individualized settlement and supply chain models. This fragmented landscape reflects the absence of a unified solution, with each entity navigating unique challenges.
Outlook:
The ongoing evolution of financial and supply chain structures will require adaptability from both companies and financial institutions. High energy prices provide temporary relief, but sustained stability will depend on the development of resilient, transparent systems that can withstand potential downturns. While a unified framework seems improbable in the near term, understanding and anticipating these shifts will be critical for stakeholders operating within and outside Russia.
RUS:LKOH
RUS:ROSN
Sanctions on Gazprombank- Impact on the European Energy MarketThe sanctions imposed on Gazprombank represent a significant challenge, but at the same time, they are not an insurmountable barrier to continuing payments for Russian gas. The OFAC sanctions framework often allows for exceptions, and in this case, we can anticipate mechanisms similar to general licenses that have already been granted to other Russian banks for energy-related transactions. However, the speed and transparency of this process remain uncertain, introducing additional risks for market participants.
Alternative payment solutions include using other banks covered by exemption lists or transitioning to alternative currencies. While such changes involve higher transactional costs, they are technically feasible. Europe, despite political pressures, is aiming to maintain Russian gas supplies due to the lack of immediate alternatives, especially given its infrastructural reliance on pipeline gas.
Maintaining even partial cooperation with Gazprom is inevitable, because a complete severance would lead to substantial economic losses and a further increase in gas prices. Moreover, energy relations are not a field where temporary pauses may occur without significant consequences. Central European countries would find themselves in an extremely vulnerable position if supplies were cut off, so compromises—potentially negotiated behind closed doors—are likely.
Russia's strategy involves not only for seeking alternative routes, such as boosting supplies through Turkey or to China, but also leveraging the current sanctions as a bargaining tool with European partners. Gazprom is likely to balance between minimizing losses and pursuing an escalation strategy, using the sanctions as a means to strengthen its negotiation position.
Conclusion:
The current situation underscores the need for flexibility and a willingness to negotiate on all possible sides. Both Europe and Russia must work toward compromise solutions to mitigate the repercussions of this new phase of sanctions policy.
EUREX:FMUR1!
Gazprom USD scenarioGazprom USD scenario - potential BO and new growing trend supported by stop of the conflict with Ukraine and growth of Gas futures.
Gazprom reversal (RUB) setupPotential Gazprom reversal setup from historically low values.
The war in Ukraine is going to end, Europe needs gas, NG futures are growing potential creating long scenario for Gazrpom
Gazprom - good time to form long-term position.Greetings everyone!
"All wars, even if they are centuries old, always end in one thing - negotiations and peace"
Alexander Ivanovich Lebed.
The spat between Europe and Russia over the conflict in Ukraine served as a catalyst for a reassessment of the gas giant's prospects. Share prices currently reflect the company's weak position in Europe, a costly pivot to eastern consumers and increased tax pressure.
Under these conditions, it is quite difficult for standard analysts to look forward with a positive outlook, but that is exactly what should be done.
This conflict showed that traditional business relationships will always find a way to complete a transaction, even at increased costs. The “Business as Usual” model will remain the most popular as long as humanity continues to value money.
Gazprom is the legal successor of the gas infrastructure of the Soviet Union; moreover, it implemented new projects in this area by creating Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream.
Having such capacities, the company is able to offer the best price on the European gas market and reach consumers.
"We positively assess Gazprom's chances of returning to the European market and restoring Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2"
Current price levels of 140 and below seem to be an excellent opportunity to form a position with a long-term target of 300. The average dividend for 5 years is 15.76, for 10 years 15.26. Undoubtedly, the record figures for 2022 distort this information, so taking 12 per share will show us the ability to hold shares at 8.5% per annum.
As a result, VokCapital expects the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the normalization of trade relations with Europe, the lifting of major sanctions against the Russian Federation and Gazprom.
GAZPROM STOCK.LONG SETUP.Hello ladies and gentleman,according my analysis To GAZPROM STOCK .there is agreat probability long to 184 RUB.
Possible bearish continuation GAZP
MOEX:GAZP
Bearish:
1) Price is near by REH liquidity
2) Trend is bearish
3) Sell side is to be offered to the market below the target
4) Elections 17.03
Bullish:
1) FVG is near the price
New Year with GazpromGazprom is always a good hedging opportunity. We are looking forward to develop a strategy to hedge risks with this stock to invest in their peers and relatives for the balanced stock portfolio. Our favourite volatility indicators show quite harbour for the Gazprom Stock and ask for help about whether Gazprom will or will not be outrun Company to develop a good risk/opportunity profile to win the Santa-Claus Rally 2023. Wee see Gazprom Stock in the corridor of 189,7 Rubles as upper case and 150,6 as a lower cage. We wish you happy holidays and a good deed.
Gazprom price retracement to the fair value 7th October 2023
Synopsis:
Despite the conflict in Ukraine, Gazprom revenue is growing and currently on its historical high while price dropped to the 2016 level in US dollars. Price to the assets including oil subsidiary is on very low level. Large buyers started accumulating position according to Accum/Dist indicator.
Entry: 1st- 1.5 USD (160 RUB), 2nd - 1.12 USD* (113 RUB)
Target 3.0 USD (300 RUB) and above
Duration: 180d
* Potential new lower low in USD based on historical rubble price
CAZPROM BUYHello, according to my analysis of cazprom stock. There is a very good buying opportunity. The stock reached a very strong support. We note that the price has returned from this area a lot. And he couldn't break it. Also, the weekly candlestick is very strong, showing us a strong entry for buyers. good luck for everbody
long position on GAZPMy strtegy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like whilerespecting all the values that define the stock maket
GAZP Gazprom to 206$ Buy Now !!!According to my chart analysis , GAZP GAZPROM Show strong signal to buy , buy max as you can .
GAZPROM analyseswe have signal in the market that idicate the next phase is short gazprom going down
Short-term swing speculation. Long from 164.7 to 169 and 170.Short-term swing speculation. Long from 164.7 to 169 and 170 during the nearest trading sessions.
GAZP GAZPROM BUY NOWAccording to my chart analysis , GAZP GAZPROM Show strong signal to buy , buy max as you can .
Russian Gas monopolist is facing it's downfall?☝️What happened?
After taking decision not to pay dividents this year, Gazprom stock dropped almost 40% in the moment.
☝️Why they didn't pay dividents?
Also, prices on gas soared up high, company still decided that it needs spare money in case of unpredictable future problems. There is a theory that one of such problems could be complete stop of gas supply to europe that russian government can take in the near future.
☝️What's next?
From technical point of view we formed triangle and as volatility gets lower, it more likely that we will break it down and fall more.
I want to remind you that currently Gazprom doesn't supply gas to Europe as they are completing planned technical services until 22.07.
I expect further fall to the closest strong level at 160.00
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
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P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
GAZP Long . Bullish TrendBullish Trend on GAZP as it is hitting a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows since the start of sanctions and the war in Ukraine.
cazp for contraRussia's large stocks are falling sharply today, which may be the opposite investment despite rising risks...
