US30 14H
We are at the end of the fifth wave and it is likely that the Dow Jones index will take a break up to the specified areas!
There is also a divergence in the RSI!
What do you think?
US30 trade ideas
Dow may face strong resistance?Hi Guys.
The US 30, Dow Jones is fast approaching an area that may see some strong selling pressure.
Ive written previous posts regarding The Fib 1.618 retrace of Dows bear market high to low is the zone I have drawn on the chart.
Both Dow's counterparts, SP 500 and NAS100 corrected at their respective 1.618 retracements of the bear market.
The Dow has been travelling in the channel on the chart and it is now at the upper part right as we head into that zone.
Also RSI is showing clear divergence on daily, for added confluence entering into a potential sell zone. Preferably having RSI enter overbought again and then look for sell trades on lower time frame for potential big risk to reward play.
There is a harmonic forming if price does follow the path to the zone and pulls back. The two possible patterns could become either a cypher whose entry point lands conveniently on the lower channel line or should we break the channel low then a shark pattern where the entry is between 0.886 and 1.13.
Safe Trading all
Dow Jones Industrial - DJI - is creating a ending diagonalEnding Diagonal Overview
An Ending Diagonal is a pattern that signifies the exhaustion of a larger movement. It occurs at the final stages of a trend, either at the end of a five-wave impulse or at the end of an A-B-C corrective structure. Typically, ending diagonals take longer to unfold compared to standard impulses, indicating a slowdown and an imminent trend reversal.
Key Rules for Ending Diagonals
• Where they appear: Ending diagonals can occur in either Wave 5 of an impulse or Wave C of a corrective structure.
• Wave count: An ending diagonal subdivides into five waves.
• Wave structure: Each of the five waves in an ending diagonal consists of three smaller waves.
• Wave overlap: In an ending diagonal, Wave 1 and Wave 4 overlap, unlike a standard impulse.
Guidelines for Identifying an Ending Diagonal
• Wave size: Wave 1 is typically the largest among Waves 1, 3, and 5.
• Contracting vs. Expanding Diagonals:
• In a contracting diagonal, Wave 5 often terminates slightly beyond the trendline connecting Wave 1 and Wave 3.
• In an expanding diagonal, Wave 5 typically ends before the trendline connecting Wave 1 and Wave 3.
• Wave 3 extension: If Wave 5 is an ending diagonal, Wave 3 is most likely to be extended.
• Implication of extensions: Wave 5 extensions, truncated fifths, and ending diagonals all suggest a significant reversal is approaching.
• Sub-wave structure: Unlike typical impulses, the sub-waves Wave 2 and Wave 4 do not alternate in terms of structure. Both corrections are usually simple ZigZag patterns.
• Throw-over phenomenon: Often, prices may briefly shoot beyond the trendline connecting Wave 1 and Wave 3 in a phenomenon known as a throw-over, indicating extreme exhaustion. This is followed by a sharp reversal.
• Trading opportunity: A strong buying opportunity usually emerges when prices break above the diagonal trendline connecting Wave 2 and Wave 4.
Internal Wave Structure
The internal structure of an ending diagonal follows a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern. Each of the five waves in the diagonal subdivides into three smaller waves, typically following an A-B-C ZigZag pattern. This differs from a typical impulse, which subdivides into a 5-wave structure.
Conclusion
Ending diagonals mark the completion of major trends and serve as powerful reversal signals. Recognizing their internal wave structure and the key characteristics such as the overlap of Waves 1 and 4, the throw-over, and their 3-wave subdivisions can help traders identify impending reversals and take advantage of new trend opportunities.
SHORT US30 - wait for break out at 41967Team, another SHORT FOR US30, once it reach at 41967, then short, we need a break out
Stop loss at 42045
target 1 at 41864.8
Target 2 at 41721.4
US30 I Potential short scalp from top of the channel Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** US30 Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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US30-BREAKOUT4YR: Resistance was broken and the price have been above the resistance.
18: Breakout of the previous High which is flag formation on small timeframe
1D": Pin Bar, waiting to buy close off the Pin bar, at the US Open
Dow Jones Targets New Highs Amid Fed RateDow Jones Closes at a Record High Above 41,700 Ahead of Major Fed Event
Technical Analysis:
The price has stabilized within a bullish zone and, depending on that will continue the trend while above 41565
Sustained stability above 41,565 could drive the index higher towards 41,980. Conversely, a break below this level could signal a corrective move down to 41,340. Additionally, a short-term correction to 41,620 is possible from the current price.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41,620
Resistance Levels: 41820, 41980, 42100
Support Levels: 41565, 41340, 41030
Trend Outlook:
Uptrend: Above 41,565
Downtrend: Below 41,340
US30 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for US30.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 41,801.97.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 40,853.86 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41687. Dear colleagues, I believe that the correction in the wave “2” has already taken place and therefore the impulse wave “3” has started, which according to the rules of wave analysis should reach the resistance area 41687.
This is possible in 2 cases:
1) wave 1 has not been formed yet
2) after wave 2 in wave 3 (then this level will be reached 2 times).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Bearish drop?DJ30 is reacting off the the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 41,785.78
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 42,102.21
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level that lines u with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 41,103.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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U30 Setup. Thoughts?I expect to US30 to grab the buyside liquidity and mitigate the order block and sell
Short here or short on rise.. lets see..The news..
Rate cut, probably well do discounted.
It's just a study not a trade suggestion.
Channel, pattern support, resistance.. that's all in there.
I use indicators but this looks like a clear concept so avoiding indicators reading.
Dow Jones Index (US30): What to Expect from FOMC?
Dow Jones Index is very weak ahead of FOMC today.
The market is stuck within a horizontal range on a 4h time frame.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 41820 - the resistance of the range,
we can expect a bullish continuation at least to 42000 level.
Bearish Scenario
A bearish breakout and a candle close below 41440
will push the price lower at least to 41200 level.
Wait for FOMC and then follow the market after a breakout.
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US30For US30 , I expect the area between 42,236 and 42,330 to be a very strong resistance zone. If the price fails to break through it, we will likely see a correction down to the 39,989 level. This analysis will be invalidated if the price exceeds this zone and a daily candle closes above it.
US30 TO NEW ATH OF $43,050 (2WK TF)🚀US30 moving like clockwork😍 Price is currently down 1,630 PIPS (-4.58%) & more downside is expected. You can use this opportunity to capitalise on sell positions, then buy back at a cheaper price later on & target new ATH'S.
US30 TO NEW ATH OF $43,050 (UPDATE)Our long term position on US30 has been moving so smoothly! Price is now up 8,350 PIPS (25% ROI) since I called it live last year on the channel for you all😍
Close out partial profits if you haven't already. Just a little more upside left to go!
US30 / UNDER FOMC PRESSURE - 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
In August, the prices saw a price decline of 6.91%, reflecting a period of downturn. However, in September, there was a notable recovery, with prices rising to an all-time high (ATH) of 41,852. This peak represents the highest level achieved thus far in the prices history. Currently, prices are trading below this ATH, which suggests that the market is still testing its limits.
If the current price trajectory remains below the ATH of 41,852, further declines could be anticipated. Support levels to watch for potential price corrections are at 41,340 and 40,853. These levels might serve as points where the price could stabilize or experience a rebound.
On the other hand, if the prices manages to close above the ATH on a 4-hour candle, it could indicate a shift towards a bullish trend. This would suggest that the market sentiment has turned positive and could lead to further gains. In this scenario, the price might approach new resistance levels, with potential targets at 42,282 and 42,703. These levels represent possible areas where the price might encounter selling pressure or where further gains could be capped.
Overall, the price dynamics are influenced by how it performs relative to the ATH, with potential implications for both downward corrections and upward advances depending on market behavior.
UPWARD TARGET : 42,282 , 42,703.
DOWNWARD TARGET : 41,852 , 40,853.
DOW JONES Is a post Fed decline valid before an October rally?The day has come when the Fed will finally cut the Interest Rates for the first time since the early 2022 hike cycle and the question in the market is whether it will be by -0.25% or -0.5%.
High volatility is expected intra-day but technically Dow Jones (DJI) remains within an uptrend (Channel Up) both medium-term (5-months) and long-term (2 years). The last support and bounce was offered by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on September 11 and that broke the remarkable symmetry that the index had so far with the March - August 2023 fractal.
That fractal suggested that after a (dotted) Channel Up, the index should make a correction below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but on September 11 instead of breaking below the 1D MA50, the index rebounded (as mentioned above) and diverged from the fractal.
This means that the Bullish Led (green Channel Up) may this time start earlier and the rally may break above the 2-year Channel Up and finally deliver a new long-term pattern, possibly more aggressive.
Seasonality however is a big factor for investors and as we can see, the last two Septembers (2023, 2022) have been bearish, extending corrections that started in August but eventually managed to price a bottom in October.
As a result, any remark by Chair Powell during the press conference that isn't well received by the market, can initiate a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA200, ranging from -5.07% to -6.90%.
In our opinion, if that takes place, it will be a tremendous buy opportunity until at least the end of the year. If however Powell delivers what the market is expecting (and more), we expect the pattern to continue its divergence from the 2023 fractal and enter the more aggressive bullish pattern earlier. If the more aggressive pattern prevails, a 46000 target is very probable by the end of the year.
Notice that this divergence is also evident when comparing the 1D RSI sequences of the two fractals.
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DOW/US30 - We are entering the SHORT POSITIOn at 41646Team, we set this trade almost 8 hours ago,
but waiting for the price confirmation to short.
STOP LOSS at 41726
Target at 41552
and Target at 48486.5
PLEASE NOTE: Below 41600 we carefully bring our stop loss toward 41652
US30 TodayFor me Looking still up.
I expect a little bit correct and continiue new HIGHER HIGH
Remeber about Stoploss andno more risk than 0.5-1.00% account
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade."
Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession.
Let’s break this down:
Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late.
Looking back at past events:
The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed.
The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%.
Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s.
The big questions are:
Why does this combination signal trouble?
Will this pattern repeat itself again?
While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster.
Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop.
It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
DOW JONES: Is it forming a BLOW OFF TOP??Dow Jones isn't just having a strong bullish momentum on the 1D timeframe but also on its 1W technical outlook where it maintains a steady bullish overall indicator score (RSI = 64.010, MACD = 036.840, ADX = 29.553). However there are growing concerns coming from the 1W chart as the 1W RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence, trading on a Channel Down while the actual price is on a Channel Up.
This is alarming because last time this showed up was in late 2021 and as we all know led to the bear market of 2022. However the Bearish Divergence prior to that (mid 2017) was false and Dow continued to rise instead for another 4 months before a correction to its 1W MA50. And that is the level that plays the most important role here, the 1W MA50. As long as it continues to support, we will have a bullish trend.
Actually, Dow seems to be attempting a breakout over the Channel Up this month, unlike December 2021. Failure to break though can result into a blow off top.
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US30 Road MAPThis chart uses Gann's Square of 9 to find key price levels through geometric and time cycles. Let me break it down:
1. Gann Angles:
Gann angles divide the price into degrees like 0°, 45°, 90°, etc. These angles correspond to key support and resistance levels.
The current price of 41,723.1 is near the 0° level at 41,835.8, which is a critical resistance zone.
2. Support Levels:
45° level: 41,513.02 is the first support.
90° level: 41,191.49 is the next major support.
180° level: 40,552.18 is a significant long-term support zone.
3. Resistance Levels:
Current resistance: 41,835.8 (0° level).
If broken, the price may target higher degrees above 42,000+.
4. RSI & Momentum:
Though not displayed here, RSI or momentum indicators can be added to confirm if the price has strength to break resistance or if it will reverse at support levels.
5. Time and Price:
The vertical lines represent time cycles, indicating potential turning points. For example, the intersection around Sept 23-25 could be a significant point to watch for a reversal or continuation.
Interpretation:
If the price breaks 41,835.8, the next target would be higher Gann levels.
If the price fails at 41,835.8, expect a retracement to the support at 41,513 or further down to 41,191.
This analysis relies on Gann’s philosophy that both time and price work in harmony, and significant market turns happen at key price levels combined with time cycles.
This chart is part of Gann’s secret tools and helps traders pinpoint high-probability areas for price movements based on the theory of vibration and geometric relationships in the market.
