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JSE ALSI waiting for a direction to break out of The JSE ALSI 40 continues to move in some form of Symmetrical Triangle. And it's been doing so since September 2023. Right now the price is below the 200MA which does indicate a BEAR market. However, when you see the 200MA, it's been moving sideways, which does not give the indicator it's reliable signal for a trending motion. And with the price near the apex, means a breakout is imminent. If we look at the international markets like the Dow Jones and S&P500, they've hit all time highs. And as you know, the international markets are leading indicators which could mean we could see JSE ALSI breaking up and also heading to all time highs. The first target will be set to 73,637 and the next is the moon. So yes, my bias is bullish in Q1 - 12024
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 poised for upside this year - Target 84,298TECHNICALS Symmetrical Triangle has formed on the daily since I would say 10 August 2023. There are good technical signs that a breakout to the upside is imminent. First we have a long term upward range from 2020 which the price continues to bounce off the uptrend. Second we have a trending 200MA which the price still needs to break above as it's been in a pathetic sideways range for the last year. JSE traders know what I'm talking about. But once we get that breakout, we could see a target of 84,289 FUNDAMENTALS Index Rebalancing and Convergence There's a note on the JSE’s planned index harmonization which could affect the ALSI and Swix indices, aiming for a convergence by March 2024. INDEX PERFORMANCE This adjustment might influence the index's composition and performance, potentially affecting investor sentiment positively depending on the specifics of the harmonization. This can increase investor confidence in the index as a benchmark, potentially leading to more investment in products tied to the index, such as ETFs and mutual funds. BALANCE EXPOSURE! Also there could be better balance exposure across stocks or sectors, reducing volatility and appealing to risk-averse investors.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: Odd Lot Offer EasilyWHAT IS AN ODD LOT OFFER? An odd-lot offer is a financial transaction. It is where a company offers to buy back small quantities of its shares from shareholders who hold fewer shares than the typical trading unit. Usually it’s under 100 shares. In the context of stock markets, an “odd lot” refers to a number of shares that is less than the standard trading lot. Here are the key points about an odd-lot offer: Target Audience: Aimed at shareholders who own fewer shares than the standard trading unit (commonly 100 shares). Purpose: Typically initiated by a company to reduce the number of small shareholders and simplify its shareholder structure. Offer Terms: The company specifies an offer price at which it is willing to buy back the odd lots of shares. This price may be at a premium to the current market price. Voluntary Participation: Shareholders are not obligated to participate; it’s a voluntary decision on their part. Cost Reduction: Companies may implement odd-lot offers to reduce administrative costs associated with managing a large number of small shareholders. Shareholder Choice: Odd-lot shareholders can decide whether to sell their shares to the company at the offered price or to retain their shares. Tax Implications: Companies may structure odd-lot offers in a way that has specific tax implications for shareholders. It’s common for the offer to be treated as a return of capital rather than a dividend. Approval Process: In many cases, such offers require approval from the company’s shareholders, often obtained at a general meeting. Let’s use an example with City Lodge in 2023. 1. What’s Going On: As of October 16, 2023, there were a bunch of small-scale shareholders in City Lodge, each holding fewer than 100 shares. These investrs are referred to as “Odd-lot Holders,” which make up 58.22% of all City Lodge shareholders. However, when you look at the total shares they own, it’s just a tiny 0.06% of the market. Now, managing these tiny portions costs a lot, creating a headache for everyone. 2. The solution To solve this issue, at City Lodge’s board of directors are suggesting an Odd-lot Offer. This means they want to buy back the small amounts of shares from these Odd-lot Holders, making life simpler for everyone involved. 3. So what do these Odd-lot holders get? If you’re one of these Odd-lot Holders, you get a chance to cash at a price that’s 5% more than the average value of City Lodge shares over the past 30 days. It’s like a special deal, and you won’t have to pay any fees to make the transaction. 4. How it works To make this happen, City Lodge needs approval from its shareholders. They discussed it at the Annual General Meeting on November 23, 2023. If the plan gets a green light, Odd-lot Holders can decide to sell their shares at the offered price or keep them. 5. The tax story They considered the Odd-lot Offer isn’t a dividend but more like a return of capital. This decision has some tax implications, so they suggest you chat with your tax expert for the details. City Lodge wants to simplify its shareholder list, and if you’re an Odd-lot Holder, you have a choice to make – take the deal or keep riding the City Lodge wave. Does that help and did it help you?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
2
Oh no Mr Market not this shenanigan again! We've started off the year of 2024 the same way we started in November 2022. In a sideways range with a high of 75,000 and a low of 63,000. This is very disappointing and tough for position and swing traders who mainly focus on the JSE stocks. What can we do this year to help ride up and down the range? I can give some ideas but it's up to your trading personality and risk profile how to go about it. Some ideas are. 1. Lower your risk and reward price expectations. 2. Look into intraday trading the JSE ALSI 40 3. Make use of the trailing stop loss more 4. Risk less per trade when the market is really just volatile 5. Diversify into other markets and bite the bullets So, analysis wise I guess the JSE will want to go back to 75,000. Any trader can see a rectangle and guess the range movement for the year. What are your thoughts? What we really need is a breakthrough and a breakout.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
Traders Don’t Fail – They QuitIt’s been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don’t do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset’s price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it’s international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America’s leading influence. What are your thoughts? You think we’ll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a trader's virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don’t FAIL – THEY QUIT.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
5 Non Trading Activities to Success…While charts, trends, risk and reward are our daily companions. Let’s not forget that life’s full of exciting opportunities beyond the trading desk. We are human at the end of the day. And you also need to consider extra elements that will help you propel towards success. Let’s get into the 5 Non trading activities you need to act on. Healthy Lifestyle: Trading, Eat, Rest, Gym, Repeat! Who said trading is all about staring at screens and analyzing numbers? It’s time to inject some energy into your life! A healthy lifestyle isn’t just about balance sheets; it’s about balance in everything. You need to take your vitamins, eat healthy, feel great, hit the gym, go for a run, or channel your inner yogi. The adrenaline rush from trading pairs perfectly with the endorphin high from a good workout. The healthier you are, the more sharp your mind will be. And this will get you to think straight and control your emotions better. Besides, you are what you eat and what you do. Mindful Meditation: Zen and the Art of Trading Mindful meditation isn’t just sitting and going OOOHHM…. It’s for all successful entrepreneurs that deal with daily stresses and risks. Sometimes you just need to take a breather, clear your mind, and get your mind and thoughts in order. Whether you meditate, do self-hypnosis or just do deep breathing exercises – this will help you to be a more calmer and clearer thinker as a trader. When you find your inner peace in your mind, it will reflect on your trading and results. Continuous Learning Trading is an ever-evolving game, and the most successful players never stop learning. I’ve read maybe 200 books on trading in my life and I don’t even think that’s nearly enough to learn everything about the markets. It’s always crucial for you to dive into new strategies, explore market trends, and devour financial news like it’s the hottest gossip in town. You need to find yourself in the trading journey. This is a self introspection adventure that is forever going. Stay curious, stay hungry for knowledge, and watch your trading game reach new heights. Strong Networking: Bulls, Bears, and Bros Trading might be a solitary endeavor,. But success is a team sport. It’s important to build a network that’s as strong as your risk management skills. Sign up to trading events, courses, books and programmes. Connect with fellow traders, and remember, it’s not just about what you know; it’s about who you know. Your next big opportunity might come from a conversation over coffee rather than a chart analysis session. Time Management: Trade Like a Pro, Live Like a Boss In the world of trading, time is money. But beyond the trading hours, master the art of time management in your personal life. Schedule downtime, enjoy hobbies, and spend quality time with loved ones. A well-balanced life isn’t just about maximizing profits; it’s about maximizing joy. Efficient time management is the key to becoming a trading rockstar without burning out. So, trade smart, live well, and let success be your favorite trend! FINAL WORDS: I trust this has given some food for thought. That trading isn’t just about technical work. It’s also about inner work. Work on yourself and become the true trader you aspire to. Let’s sum up the 5 Non Trading Activities to achieve better success. Healthy Lifestyle: Trading, Eat, Rest, Gym, Repeat! Mindful Meditation: Zen and the Art of Trading Continuous Learning Strong Networking: Bulls, Bears, and Bros Time Management: Trade Like a Pro, Live Like a Boss
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Why Markets Will Always Change – 9 ReasonsThe only thing constant about financial markets is that they change. And since 2007 or so, with the higher availability of trading different instruments and markets world-wide. And not to mention, the ability to go long (buy) and go short (sell). Yes, these everyday possibilities were difficult to find and trade back then. Now I’m speaking my age in the markets. But it’s important to know, the algorithms are changing the game every single year. As long as you’re a trader you need to be able to learn, grow, adapt and evolve with every changing markets. Let’s go into details about WHY the markets are changing… New and Old Traders (Volume and liquidity) Traders are the lifeblood of financial markets. They come in all shades of experience, net worth, strategies and diversity. Each new trader and investor, brings fresh perspectives, risk appetites, and systems. And when they execute, it causes a ripple into the market ecosystem. Similar to the ‘Butter-fly effect’ where one tiny flutter of the wing can cause weather disturbances which could result in a hurricane. This blend of old and new creates a constant state of flux, volume, liquidity and adds their unique touch to the market canvas. New Market Information (Local or international) Information is the bedrock of trading decisions. In today’s hyperconnected world, news, data releases, and geopolitical events can instantaneously ripple through markets. Whether it’s an unexpected earnings report, a geopolitical crisis, FOMC or Central Banks decisions, or a technological breakthrough (like AI). This new information triggers a financial market reaction. New Micro, Macro, and Fundamentals (Unrelated to charts and price) Microeconomic factors include things like: individual company performance. Also think of corporate actions such as mergers and acquisitions. These will also reshape industry landscapes and impact stock prices. Fundamentals include any internal news related or announcement event that is NOT related to price and volume action on a chart. While macroeconomic indicators include: GDP growth with money tightening and injection controls. While Central banks’ decisions on interest rates, inflation rates and monetary policies influence borrowing costs, investment decisions, and market valuations. These also play a pivotal role in market dynamics. As these factors evolve over time, they influence market sentiment (how investors feel on what to buy and sell) And this obviously drives price movements. World Economic Info (Major changes happening) Globalization has interconnected economies in ways unimaginable just a few decades ago. On the one hand we have 6 more countries joining BRICs. Which is showing the political war and dynamic change between the East and the West. Economic trends in one part of the world can have far-reaching effects elsewhere. Trade agreements, currency fluctuations and Forex wars, and shifts in supply chains impact various sectors and industries. And this can also lead to a change in market price, volume and conditions. Also, when one event kicks in there is a domino effect. And this can trigger a cascade of events that reverberate across financial markets worldwide. Sentiment (How the overall feeling is) Psychological factors like fear, greed, and uncertainty can drive sudden market movements. Market sentiment is often reflected in buying and selling volumes. When investors and traders are feeling optimistic and positive – they buy and hold. When they are feeling down and negative (about positions) – they sell and short. High volume with buying or selling can indicate strong conviction – for other investors. While low volume might signify uncertainty. This ebb and flow of market participation led to constant changes in market trends and patterns. Then there are other reasons that financial markets are constantly changing including: Technological Advancements (At an accelerating rate) As the world evolves and technology compounds at unprecedented levels, we will see innovations in: Trading platforms Algorithms new instruments & markets high-frequency trading New AI related trading bots Better chart pattern recognition plugins Improved automatic trading developments. And emerging technologies can change existing business models in a way they can make them obsolete to totally transform them. These will all influence market behaviour of demand and supply with investors and traders. Which will cause a shift and change in price and volume. Regulatory Changes (Boring but inevitable) Also, rules. Rules, regs and legs are always updating and changing. This will also alter trading practices, liquidity, price movement and market structure. Political Uncertainty (Fun times ahead for the world) The rate the world is separating and joining forces in all different ways, there is change coming to the financial markets. With the EU having control over 27 countries economies. With BRICs adding another 6 countries to theirs. With other countries breaking away from the US dollar. While other companies and countries are switching and adopting more to crypto and AI. The very foundation of politics and control is changing under our very eyes. And this will definitely have a major shift in economic directions as well as on the markets. Natural Disasters and health disasters (Brace yourself and keep your masks) From Global Warming, to less resources available to mind. From catastrophic events, floods and droughts. These can all disrupt supply chains, impact production, and affect the prices of commodities and goods. And then financial markets and prices, will all be affected. And what about pandemics? If we have another COVID-19 type event, this will once again create rapid shifts in consumer behaviour. And this will have a major impact and ripple throughout companies, industries, countries and essentially the world markets. FINAL WORDS: You can clearly see, why financial markets will always change. And as markets continue to shift and adapt, the only constant is change itself. So it’s our job to adapt or die. Embrace it, learn from it, love it and enjoy the process along the way. It means, this journey and income generating source will NEVER get boring. It can ONLY get better (well we can be optimistic to think that). Let’s sum up why the financial markets landscape will always change… New and Old Traders (Volume and liquidity) New Market Information (Local or international) New Micro, Macro, and Fundamentals (Unrelated to charts and price) World Economic Info (Major changes happening) Sentiment (How the overall feeling is) Technological Advancements (At an accelerating rate) Regulatory Changes (Boring but inevitable) Political Uncertainty (Fun times ahead for the world) Natural Disasters and health disasters (Brace yourself and keep your masks)
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
WHAT ARE Fakeouts, Shakeouts and Whipsaws?YOUR QUESTION ANSWERED! What on earth are Fake outs, Shake outs and Whipsaws? After this you will know… Fake-out: (When the price makes a false breakout of a chart pattern) A fake-out occurs when the price of a market appears to break out of a certain chart pattern. This could be a trendline, support, or resistance level. But then quickly reverses and retreats back within the pattern. Shake-out: (Where the market is highly volatile and the price moves to levels that hits their stop losses and gets traders out of their trades) A shake-out is a scenario where the market becomes highly volatile and the price moves rapidly to levels that trigger the stop-loss orders of many traders. Stop-loss orders are pre-set risk levels at which traders automatically exit their positions to limit their losses. A shake-out is designed to “shake out” weak or inexperienced traders from the market. When stop-loss orders are triggered, it can create a temporary spike in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. Once these traders are “shaken out,” the market might resume its original trend. You’ll see this most commonly with low liquid, high volatile markets like Penny Stocks or Penny Cryptos. Whipsaw: (This is where the market will change its most prominent direction within the day). Whipsaw refers to a situation where the market quickly changes its direction within a relatively short period, often during a single trading day. This can cause confusion and losses for traders who are caught off-guard. Whipsaws can occur due to various factors, such as sudden news releases, economic data surprises, or changes in sentiment. They are characterized by sharp price movements that can make it difficult to make accurate trading decisions. Whipsaws are especially common during periods of high market uncertainty or when there’s a lack of a clear trend. Let’s create a quick summary of the three: Fake-out: (When the price makes a false breakout of a chart pattern) Shake-out: (where the market is highly volatile and the price moves to levels that hits their stop losses and gets traders out of their trades) Whipsaw: (This is where the market will change its most prominent direction within the day). If you have any trading question let me know in the comments
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
#TOP40 South Africa 40 finds support@ trendline + Horizontal supNote how the trendline that has formed has had its 3rd successive touch with a reversal candlestick. Each turn off support has created strong upside price action the following day. The level where the top40 found support is even more significant as the 67500 has been a massive change of polarity on many occasions through the second half of 2023. The bulls have their work cut out for them as the failure to hold price above the 200dma was not a positive development. However in the short term, i think we can retest 69300 and maybe 70 000 but ultimately a close and successive days of trading above 70k is needed for bulls to sustain momentum and drive the market higher.
JSE:J200Long
by MarcoOlevano
SANTA CLAUS Rally in 2023 for JSE ALSI 40?Will we have a Santa Claus rally this year? Statistics say, it is likely but let's start from the beginning... The Santa Claus rally is when stock prices, both locally and globally, tend to go up and end the year on a positive note. Now, why does this happen? Here are some ideas: Holiday Cheer: During the holiday season, people generally feel more optimistic and positive. The festive mood can rub off on investors, making them look at the market with a brighter outlook. Positivity often leads to more buying, which helps the rally. Tax Time: Toward the end of the year, investors and fund managers review their portfolios for tax purposes. This is when you'll see them selling stocks to get some tax benefits. Once they sell, they use the money to buy other stocks, thinking those will do well in the coming year. This buying spree lifts stock prices and pushes up market indices. Bonus Spending: Investors often use their year-end bonuses to buy stocks. More buying means higher demand, and you know what that does – stocks go up! While it's a bit speculative, nothing says Santa Claus Rally like charts showing off holiday cheer. The JSE has seen gains in 14 out of 20 Decembers! Take a look at the JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003. Each December is marked with a vertical blue line, showing how it performed: That's a 70% win rate with positive gains in 14 out of 20 Decembers, accumulating a total of 38.72% gains. So, chances are, buying this Christmas might be a good idea, especially after a sideways year for the JSE ALSI.
TVC:SA40
by Timonrosso
5 TRADING PROTECTION LEVELS - NB*REMEMBER Every trader needs 5 protection levels. Stop loss to stop yourself from furthering losses Time stop loss to get you out of non-performing trades Adjusted stop loss to lock in profits when the market moves in your favour. Risk % per trade to only lose a certain amount of your portfolio % of Drawdown before you HALT trading - when the market is not in a favourable environment to your strategy. These are the control factors to manage your portfolio with better direction and management. What other protection levels do you apply?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
The 12 Dangers of Trading DoubtDoubt is danger. It’s a big enemy for trading. And it’s something that is innate, which is hard to escape from. It leads to you to miss opportunities, destroys confidence, clouds judgement and keeps you stuck in a rut. When you are infected with doubt, this can infiltrate even the most experienced traders. This article delves into the various dangers of trading doubt and how to overcome its destructive effects. Missed Opportunities When doubt creeps in, traders often find themselves hesitating or second-guessing their decisions. Once you feel hesitation, you’ll miss great opportunities. Winners will be left on the table. All because you doubt it’ll go your way and that the markets are conducive. If you want to stop the doubt you need to act swift and make decisions within three second. 1, 2, 3 – ACT! Loss in Confidence Without confidence, you’re going to doubt. You’re going to question your skills, strategies, and abilities. As confidence dwindles, you’re going to feel strong fear, panic and worry. This will lead to irrational decisions driven by emotions rather than logic, rationality and sound analysis. Change Your System Even if you have a winning system. Doubt could cause you to abandon it. You might already be thinking of finding another. Looking for better parameters. Adding extra elements and variables. This constant tinkering will prevent you from fully realizing the potential of their proven trading strategy and approach. This is a time game. Not a week, not a month. Noth even three years. Your trading success will come from being consistent, persistent and consistently applying a well-defined strategy over time. Search for “Better” You might even doubt trading all together. You might have lost a bit of money and now you have this desire to make it back. So you’ll look into gambling, sports betting, Amway or any other scheme instead. But you’ll most likely be disappointed. Because everything worth doing well for reward, consists of elements of risk and time. Don’t Take the Trade Your finger could be between three stone walls. Or your finger could be 1 mm from the button. If you have doubt with your trades, this will paralyse you to enter a trade. This hesitation will lead you to: Miss trades Miss profits Interfere with the system Lose confidence Exacerbate panic and fear This will only set a precedent for you to do it again. It’s a bad habit that can destroy you as a trader. Don’t Follow Criteria Doubt can lead to a disregard your essential rules. You might: Get in at different levels Move your stop loss further away Close prematurely for tiny profits or Take a trade that does NOT match the criteria. If you question the trading validity of your criteria, this will turn you into an undisciplined and unsuccessful trader. Overtrading Once doubt sets in – so will mania. And to break away from doubt, you take on a dangerous path. In an attempt to overcome doubt, you might start overtrading or revenge trading. This is where you’ll enter too many trades in quick succession, without following any criteria. Emotional Roller Coaster Doubt is not just feeling lazy. It actually comes with feelings of frustration, anxiety, and self-doubt dominating their thought process. This emotional turmoil can cloud judgment and lead to reactive rather than rational decision-making. Analysis Paralysis When doubt takes hold, this is where you might go all out with indicators, parameters and price action elements. This will lead you to excessive analysis. You’ll continuously seek more information before making a decision. This analysis paralysis can cause a couple of issues. It can overcomplicate trading It makes back and forward testing almost impossible The variables can cause conflict with each other. Your charts will look like Christmas trees This can lead you to miss trading opportunities and an inability to take action. Inconsistent Results Consistency is key in trading success. Doubt-driven decisions can lead you to inconsistent results. You’ll have your journal with how the trades were SUPPOSED to go. Versus how you made them go. And this will make it challenging to gauge the effectiveness of a trading strategy over the long term. Psychological Toll Doubt is a constant battle. If you have this, it will infect your mind it will take a toll on your mental well-being. It can lead to stress, burnout, and even health issues if you don’t fix them. Loss Aversion Doubt can cause a psychological bias known as loss aversion. This is where traders become will focus to avoid losses rather than maximise their gains. This mindset can hinder traders from taking necessary risks to achieve substantial profits. Focus on cutting small losses and banking small profits and you’ll have a recipe for disaster. It’s time to build your confidence This will come from working on a trading journal, risking less and building a track record. Over time, the doubt will creep away and the certainty will override. Let’s some up the elements of doubt for a trader… Missed Opportunities Loss in Confidence Change Your System Search for “Better” Don’t Take the Trade Don’t Follow Criteria Overtrading Emotional Roller Coaster Analysis Paralysis Inconsistent Results Psychological Toll Loss Aversion
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Worship the 200MA with the JSE ALSI 40 - But we will break up!The JSE ALSI 40 once again tested the 200MA. It then retreated back with its tail between its legs. However, the drop has not been aggressive and big. So we can make an assumption that this is a current dip that will cause a rounding bottom. If this is true, it will complete a Cup and Handle formation. And when the price breaks above the brim level we could see 80,000 on the cards. With the Santa Claus rally and positive sentiment with the interest rate hikes being halted in the US and the weakening dollar - It looks like we will continue to see its rally. Happy to be in the markets during this time. But if there is ONE lesson to take in, worship the 200MA to determine the CURRENT trend. Break above 200MA and it's a slay up from there.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
1
Tough year for JSE ALSI Positions TradersIt's been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don't do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset's price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it's international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America's leading influence. WHat are your thoughts? You think we'll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a traders virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don't FAIL - THEY QUIT. Until then trade well... T
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
The only constant with trading the markets is...The only thing constant about financial markets is that they change. And since 2007 or so, with the higher availability of trading different instruments and markets world-wide. And not to mention, the ability to go long (buy) and go short (sell). Yes, these everyday possibilities were difficult to find and trade back then. Now I’m speaking my age in the markets. But it’s important to know, the algorithms are changing the game every single year. As long as you’re a trader you need to be able to learn, grow, adapt and evolve with every changing markets. Let’s go into details about WHY the markets are changing… Since around 2007, the landscape has undergone significant transformations, driven by several key factors that shape the dynamic nature of these markets. 1. Globalisation and Technological Advancements Traders now are able to gain access to enhanced connectivity, facilitating participation in markets worldwide. They also have amazing trading and charting platforms like TradingView. This increased speed of information dissemination and transactions has a profound impact on market dynamics. And this helps contribute to the perpetual state of change. 2. Diversification of Instruments and Markets The availability of diverse financial instruments, ranging from stocks and bonds to commodities and cryptocurrencies, has expanded trading possibilities. Each year we seem to have more assets, markets, instruments, structured products and choices. It's building into a trading universe in a way. And each market possesses unique characteristics influenced by distinct factors. This diversity introduces complexity to trading strategies. And this requires traders to navigate a broad spectrum of instruments with different behaviors. As long as there are new and improved assets, the markets will always change. 3. Long and Short Positions Unlike in the past, where shorting certain markets proved challenging, the ability to go long (buy) and short (sell) has become more prevalent. This flexibility allows traders to capitalize on both upward and downward market movements. With the ability to go long and short a variety of markets, this is changing the financial landscape of the markets. Price action no longer moves in a Zig Zag 45 degree motion. There are more dips and rallies without strong trends, like in the past. All because of the intrciacies of long and short positions also adds intricacy to risk management strategies. talking about algorithms. 4. Rise of Algorithmic Trading Algorithmic trading has emerged as a game-changer in financial markets. This involves using computer programs to execute trades based on predefined criteria. The influence of algorithmic trading is profound, contributing to increased liquidity, faster execution, and the development of innovative trading strategies. As algorithms evolve each year, they continually reshape the dynamics of the trading landscape. 5. Market Participants and Strategies The composition of market participants has evolved, with institutional investors, hedge funds, high-frequency traders, and retail traders all playing pivotal roles. All of a sudden we've seen a spike in the new trend of trading with Smart Money Concepts and Inner Circle Trading, in the last two years. These changes in the behavior and strategies of these participants can swiftly impact market trends and volatility. The influx of retail traders, facilitated by online platforms, further adds new dynamics to the markets. So once again, the only constant for traders is the change that is taking place in the financial landscape and market universe. Traders who evolve, adapt, acknowledge and respond effectively to the perpetual state of change are better positioned for success in this dynamic and challenging environment.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
9 Elements to Master Algo-TradingThere are two types of trading. Discretionary where you buy and sell based on variable factors. Mechanical where you buy and sell on fixed factors. If you want a strong edge with the markets, then you’ll need to consider the latter. And hence we have algorithmic, or algo trading. Algo trading, or algorithmic trading, is the use of computer programs to automate the process of trading financial assets. These programs, or algorithms, execute trades based on predefined rules and criteria. Now when you dissect algo trading to its core, you’ll realise there are important elements you’ll need to consider to master it. Element #1. Database Management & Analysis Algo trading simply begins with a whole bunch of comprehensive and organised data management. You’ll use the financial markets to generate vast amounts of data, including historical price movements, trading volumes, and momentum indicators. Basically, you’ll need this database to create a strong back tested analysis. That way you’ll be able to get the accurate data to tell you how it’s performed, the expectations and the best and worst case scenarios. Element #2: Statistical Analysis Once you have the database of tested information. You’ll be able to work on your statistical analysis to see the inner workings of the system in action. Win & loss rate Best & average winners and losers Drawdown averages Average trade Expectancy formula Biggest and smallest winner & loser Average week, month, quarter and year Basically, all the stats you need that forms the bedrock of successful algo trading strategies. When you have this data you’ll be able to spot trends, correlations, and anomalies within financial data. Element #3. Pattern Recognition Skills Pattern recognition is a core competency in algo trading. We aren’t fully there yet with AI, Machine Learning and Deep Learning. But we’re getting there. With trading expertise combined with algorithmic precision – this will allow computers to find recurring chart patterns, candlestick formations, and technical indicators. These patterns often help give trends, reversals, potential market movements, and opportunities to enter or exit a trade. E lement #4. Machine Learning Machine learning, a subset of artificial intelligence. By using historical data, machine learning algorithms can adapt and improve trading strategies over time. So whether you have a moving average, chart patterns, Smart Money Concepts, Fibonacci or any other trading system. With Machine Learning, it will input more data and will be able to change, add, remove and optimise elements in your strategy to make it MORE successful. In just no time at all, these algorithms will learn from past successes and failures, fine-tuning trading parameters and strategies to optimise your trading performance. E lement #5. Trading EA Strategies Expert Advisors (EAs) are your everyday trading robots. These are algorithmic programs that are developed for trading platforms like MetaTrader and soon TradingView. These EAs help you to execute trades based on your pre-defined rules and criteria. You’ll then be able to design and backtest these strategies to make sure they are viable and profitable in REAL market conditions. And when it’s time to take trades, EAs do it for you. They will be able to automate the execution process – with no emotions or hesitance. This will allow you to capitalise on opportunities 24/7 without any human intervention. And you no what that means. It’s going to do the job! Element #6. Problem-Solving Skills You are going to hit a bunch of obstacles in the way. There are major challenges when it comes to algo-trading. And you’ll need to have strong problem-solving skills to overcome them and succeed. Just like programmers deal with bugs, glitches and problems with code. You’ll also find problems with paramaters, markets, rules, criteria and risk management calculations. If you have strong problem-solving skills you’ll be able to quickly identify and sort out the issues, diagnose causes, and find and implement solutions to maintain consistent performance. Element #7. Attention to Detail You need to have an eye for algo-trading. When the smallest discrepancies or inaccuracy can have major consequences for your portfolios performance. You’ll need to consistently review your strategies, parameters, and data inputs. That way it’ll help to make sure your system is accurate, reliable and trustworthy. Element #8. Risk Management It’s not just about creating a solid trading strategy and system. You’ll need to have effective risk management too. With Algo trading, you’ll need to employ a couple of money management techniques like: Position sizing Stop-loss orders and criteria Portfolio diversification When to close based on over time When to adjust your positions When to risk a certain percentage based on different market environments This will help you to protect, preserve and prosper with your portfolios. Element #9. Market adaptability Markets are dynamic. Markets trend. Markets move sideways. Markets jump in irrational circumstances. As an algo trader, you’ll need to find a way to adapt your system into the programme to identify these market environments. E.g. When the main market is above the 200MA only look for longs When the main market is below the 200MA only look for shorts. When the market is within a box range – Don’t look for any trades. As you can see, there are many elements to being a successful algo-trader. It also takes a ton of innovation. But have this article with you, for when technology and developments improve – You’ll have certain ideas and steps to take to improve your algo trading. Let’s sum up the important elements to algo-trading… Element #1. Database Management & Analysis Element #2: Statistical Analysis Element #3. Pattern Recognition Skills Element #4. Machine Learning Element #5. Trading EA Strategies Element #6. Problem-Solving Skills Element #7. Attention to Detail Element #8. Risk Management Element #9. Market adaptability Do you use Algo-Trading with the markets?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Q&A MARGIN CALL - Everything you need to know Today's Q&A I want to answer the most common questions I get about Margin Calls. Let's begin. Q. What is the Margin Call? A margin call is a situation where a trader does not have enough funds in their account to keep a trading position open. Your broker will either phone you or you'll receive an automated message with a margin call warning. Q. What can you do when you hit a Margin Call? If you are ever in this situation, you will be instructed to do two things. Deposit more funds into your portfolio to keep your trading positions opened. Close your current open position/s that are running at a loss, before your trading platform closes them out for you. Tip: When setting up a trading account with a broker find out what their minimum margin requirements are. Q&A: Can you show an example with a Margin Call? Let’s look at an example with a Margin Call Here are the specifics: Equity portfolio: R10,000 Initial margin deposit: R5,500 You buy a CFD trade which says you need to have at least 30% of the margin (initial deposit) in your account, to keep the trade opened. This means, you need R1,650 (30%) in your account to keep your trade opened. The next day comes and the market crashes below your stop loss. Your new account balance is now R1,500… Unfortunately, you’ll hit a Margin Call as your portfolio only has 27% of the initial margin of your trade. = Equity ÷ initial margin deposit = R1,500 / R5,500 = 27% 27% is less than 30% of what you need to maintain an open trade. The broker now has the right to close the trade and to send you a notification about what happened. You will receive a margin call to instruct you to deposit more money into your account or to close your trading positions. Q&A: What if I can't pay back the money when I hit a Margin Call? Essentially, you will be owing the broker as they will not be carrying the risk. If you cannot pay it or refuse to clear the negative balance, you will not be allowed to trade with the broker and/or trading platform again until you pay what you owe. Depending on the size of the debt, if you refuse to pay it then some brokers may have the legal right to pursue the outstanding debt through legal means. This means they could file a lawsuit. They could even take the matter to court, where a judgement may be issued where the trader will be required to repay the debt. What Q&A would you like to see next? If you enjoyed it or found this useful let me know so I can do more for TradingView... Trade well...
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Stop Multi-Tasking and Start Mono-Tasking! – 8 Trading ReasonsYou’re risking your own money when trading. You realise that? And in this fast-paced world, it takes a split second to break a fortune. It takes a split second to miss an opportunity. It takes a split second to lose focus. And it’s all down to one trait that is actually detrimental to your trading. Multi-tasking. Here’s why. Reason #1: Missed Opportunities When you try to juggle too many charts, markets and tasks at the same time – it’s risky. And if you distract yourself at the same time with social media, your cute cat, the news and hype… It makes it a whole lot worse. You might miss the best and highest probability trades – that you need to grow your account. If you want to really dig into finding the best opportunities you need laser focus and tunnel vision. So stop multi-tasking and instead stick to mono tasking. Reason #2: Delays in Priorities If you multi-task, it can lead to a delay in focusing on high-priority tasks. Any delay, can result in: Catching the trade too late Skipping the trade completely Forgetting what you need to execute Taking an unnecessary loss You need to stop diverting your attention away from urgent market developments. Instead, make it a priority to focus on finishing that one task. And make sure you do it with your undivided attention. Reason #3: Elevated Stress Levels As traders, we’re not only working on our method and money management – but also our mindset. Financial trading and risking money is already stressful alone. So, multi-tasking can only exacerbate this stress. And when you get stress you don’t need me to remind you what happens: You see red Your judgement becomes cloudy You make impulsive decisions You make wrong decisions Your emotions override your logicality and rationality. You can get stress all because you’re doing too many things at once. Keep to one thing and compartmentalise the others. This will do wonders for your stress levels. Reason #4: Drop in Productivity You’d think if you do more, it’ll enhance productivity. Because you’ll get stuff done right? Um no. With complex instruments analyses and risk management principles, trading needs deep analysis, strategic planning, and quick execution. With multi-tasking, you’ll most likely shift between tasks rapidly. This will not only disrupt the flow of concentration you need for one task at a time. It could also reduce the efficiency and suboptimal outcomes for every task you take on. Reason #5: More Mistakes To err is human. And if you multi-task and take on too many things, this will increase the likelihood of errors in trading. You might enter the wrong amount. Get in at the wrong prices. Get your volume wrong. But more likely, you’ll misinterpret good market signals. Each mistake has the potential to reduce your profits and damage your reputation. Reason #6: Reduced Learning Opportunities Successful trading is an ongoing learning process. When you multi-task, it hinders you from fully engaging with market trends, historical data, and educational resources. When you’re learning one thing – stick to one thing. Or it’s going to go in the one ear – out the other. Be passionate and fully immerse yourself in the one thing you’re learning at a time. You’ll find you’ll get a better and deeper understanding which is critical for your learning journey. Reason #7: Loss of Concentration Multitasking fragments attention. This makes it super difficult to maintain the level of concentration you need when trading. When you jump from one thing to another. This rapid task-switching, diminishes the brain’s capacity to keep focus. And this could lower your analytical attention. Reason #8: Overwhelm and Burnout We’ve spoken about how multi-tasking increases stress and cortisol levels. But if you fail to work on it, you’re going to eventually go kaput. This is a forever game. The last thing you want to do is burnout in the journey. The last thing you want to do is develop a mental fatigue. The last thing you want to do is fail because you quit. Final words. Stop multi-tasking and start mono-tasking. Your singular focus will show you amazing, productive, optimal and efficient results. Not just with trading, but every task you set your heart and mind to. Let’s sum up the 8 reasons why Multi-Tasking is an absolute NO when trading. Reason #1: Missed Opportunities Reason #2: Delays in Priorities Reason #3: Elevated Stress Levels Reason #4: Drop in Productivity Reason #5: More Mistakes Reason #6: Reduced Learning Opportunities Reason #7: Loss of Concentration Reason #8: Overwhelm and Burnout
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI Rally on track to 76,185 with Interest Rate out the wayCup and Handle and Triple Bottom has formed on ALSI over the past two months. Sentiment has been turning bullish with international factors. On the one hand, America has paused interest rate hikes which is leading to a global rally. Four main reasons why a drop in Interest rates causes a market rally namely: 1. Cheaper borrowing for companies 2. Higher company profits and less cost for repaying debts 3. Better Investment Returns for investors exiting from their low interest bearing assets 4. More spending by consumers On the other hand South Africa's Interest Rate: The South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate at 8.25% ... this means the prime lending rate of commercial banks also remains unchanged at 11.75%. So we are enjoying the rally and we are slowly weeding out of the shorts as the market is trying to choose an optimistic direction. It's been a very tough environment and those who followed strict money management rules, suffered less. But whent the market does rally or at least choose a solid direction, we will be in it for the medium to long run. Remember “MARKETS TAKE MONEY FROM THE IMPATIENT RISKY TRADERS AND GIVES IT TO THE PATIENT RISK AVERSE TRADERS” Other signs are also showing upside to come: 7>21 - Bullish Price<200MA - test My first very positive target and might be over stretched is 76,185. What do you think?
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso