Palladium: Countertrend shortStrong uptrend but parabolic.
Inside bar failure - buyers trapped and exited.
TP1 on chart.
TP2 - to trail.
Active trade management. To exit if no immediate selling orderflow.
PALLADIUM trade ideas
Is $2,500 The Limit For Palladium?Palladium has gone on to shatter records performing a steep climb over the past couple of weeks
but will the rise be over as fast as it started?
The chart clearly shows the clean breakouts following clean pullbacks in Palladium over the last year
and each breakout has resulted in a nice trend. The most recent breakout has been the strongest
yet in its recent history.
When price was approaching $2,000 again in January 2020, many said that price would fail at that level
as it had failed there previously in December 2019. Price will always do what it is going to do,
which is why speculation should be ignored at all costs.
Palladium went on to soar above $2,000 and then we saw increased momentum which pushed price up
another 25% to where it now stands around the $2,500 level.
Is this the limit for Palladium?
That is anyone’s guess. But what may be more likely to happen next is for price to pull back as price appears
to have momentarily run out of steam. If this is the peak then we may see a sharp decline,
but if this is just a pullback then we want to see a break and close of the current high at $2,543 which will
confirm a continuation of the bull trend.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Last Leg of Equity Bubble (12-24mo); Palladium Bubble to Roar For those that follow my ideas, there is no question we are in the last leg of the equity bubble before an extended bear market. The catch 101 however is, any pullback that occurs will be bought until the SPX hits a minimum of 4000.
I see an equity bear market commencing anytime from late 2021 to sometime in early 2022 for several years (impossible to know when specifically)
Having said that, Palladium has essentially confirmed the equity bubble that will last anywhere from 12-24 months from the writing of this post. We can clearly see that Palladium must touch the upper longitudinal linear axis. Of course when it does this exactly will determine the eventual top, however, Palladium will indeed hit a minimum of 4000 as a top, however, it cannot be ruled out that 5000 or even 6000 is possible over the next 24 months or less.
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Palladium Rockets: What to Expect, Why and How I Call it NowI ended up being one of the most bullish investors with respect to Palladium for 2020 but even I was a little wrong! Many people called Palladium tanking in 2020 with 2000.00 being the absolute peak. Nope! My forecast was 2500 but I have revised the outlook, and here's why.
While most Palladium mines are in South Africa (which I already knew in my previous forecast), it turns out that there has been some power issues due to weather (impossible to predict ahead of time), and this will artificially increase Palladium significantly in 2020; it has soared nearly 28% YTD which equates to one of the top assets thus far in the entire stock market. Now, this may or may not be pure manipulation to drive the price up, but in reality, all that matters is the price is going up.
Secondly, it seems there has been an absurdly high interest level from China, India and other parts of Asia for Palladium. It could be that they are using the metal for electric vehicle production, or stockpiling it for future production.
Nonetheless, and interestingly enough, Palladium and the S&P 500 are highly correlated, and I accurately called that 2020 will be very bullish overall for the markets, and as such, Palladium will continue to rise.
Palladium could have a violent pullback of 5%+ when the SPX decides to correct just a little bit (doesn't have to be some epic correction), but the dips will be bought in both cases.
Palladium will likely consolidate with some gains but much lesser gains through 2021, before the run corrects more drastically sometime in or around the year of 2022.
Some top stocks to invest for 2020 PTMs: IMPALA Platinum (follows Platinum mostly, and a little Palladium) || PTM (junior Palladium miner that focuses on Palladium mostly and other PTMs).
TP 2020 (not necessarily by year-end): 2800-3000+
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THE GREAT PALLADIUM BUBBLEI thought we could take a look back in hindsight and see the ideas I've posted leading up to today. It is no longer time to be long. I've sold all my physical palladium and waiting for a massive correction. This move is more than parabolic; its asymptotical.
Palladium BubbleI remember back in the dot com bubble that precious metals went into a bubble as well. Boy that bubble looks small compared to this one, lol.
Too much easy money floating around, this is what happens when you have negative interest rates.
At some point the Feds will have to step in before we get inflation.
XPDUSD TP: 2700 usd.XPDUSD TP: 2700 usd. Continued, the exchange rate has moved exponentially. Therefore, we will advance the rules of this. The exponential acceleration is created mathematically by adding the underlying ATR to the exchange rate acceleration. This creates a double acceleration that grows every day. How to trade this rule system. We need to look for a fractal. In our case, the correction fractals (red rectangle) are best used because the main trend fractals are accelerating. Assuming that the corrections for the main trend fractals and the increased ATRs follow the ratio of the previous fractal pair, we are more likely to say that the first significant level of correction may be near 2700 usd.
Sell the bubble PalladiumAs you might have seen i have not traded for almost 4/5 weeks and there is a good reason behind it. When i saw the markets behaving erratically, every negative news being considered positive , iran issu/risk impact completely neglected ,focus on trade deal phase 1 (which aint even full of promises), tweets from trump and so on, i decided to sit back and just observe until i see a clear direction.
Coming back to palladium which i havent traded for almost 5 weeks now. My previous short went well and i took the profits and went out because it seemed like it will continue to go up and again lucky enough for me, i got it right.
I could have also bought it , but buying palladium at this price point can be extremely tricky.
One thing to look at , is the auto sales which is actually dropping around the world, and palladium is used mainly in the automotive domain as the catalyst. But with advent of EVs (which dont emit gases and thus doesnt need any catalytic convertors) and more more switch to hybrids and also the falling auto industry , i dont think this rally will be quite sustainable.
Verdict:
I am short on this bubble.
TP1 2000
TP2 1800
Are there money to be made in Shorting ?The answer is a resounding YES !!!!
Like many traders, I learnt to buy stocks, commodities, forex, etc. You hear lunchtime talk like :
I am buying Apple today ! I am long on Tencent with a SL of xxx!
There are lesser people telling you about shorts or selling. I did not realise it requires a mental shift years back when I was attempting my first short. Psychologically, it was harder to accept now that we have to reverse the principle of "buy low sell high" to "Sell high buy low".
So, in this Palladium case, it is now at high. Of course, it can go even higher (go check out the monthly chart and you cannot find a preceding higher point than current price level). Such parabolic moves are great shorting opportunity , think cryptocurrency, how fast it goes up and down it falls in 90 degrees angle.
I reckon this will not be the case of Palladium as it's industrial use is still very much relevant in today's market. Though there are talks of Platinum acting as substitute but automakers are slow to make that change. Until that day, Palladium might correct and goes sideway but it is unlikely to have a heavy fall , in my opinion.
So watch out for the price level between 2150 - 2175 where I expect the action to come , i.e. breakdown from the ascending wedge pattern. Notice I draw a dotted line showing the possibility of it breaking higher. If it does, then wait for 2275 level and study the price patterns closely.
For new traders, please use a demo account to practise but train your mind to feel the profits or losses is REAL. But just because it is a demo account, do not put in a huge position size just to inflate your ego, that would be meaningless. Whether the result is a 5 figure profits or loss, it does not affect you since the capital was easily provided. Use the same amount as you would in your real account except this is for practice.
You need to get really comfortable and know the mechanics of sell high buy low, training your eyes to spot the trade opportunity and manage your risk accordingly.
There are money to be made in shorting, really. Go do your homework. Trade safely.
Gimme a break, PalladiumImagine you had held onto this metal since Nov 2008 till now, you would have made 1200% return on your capital. Go take a look at the weekly chart and you can see its parabolic move, hardly much correction along the way.
Again, this is a counter-trend strategy, a short term trading set up at best since nobody can tell you where is the top of Palladium.
For now, I see some resistance at 2145 level. 9 & 10 Jan 2020 candles were a signal and the subsequent bullish candles are getting shorter and shorter, signalling the bulls are exhausted. They need a rest or correction.
The aggressive sellers can sell now at 2145 or wait for it to break down the support at 2109. You can also wait for it to break down from the bullish channel for a higher safety of margin.
Trade safely
Palladium possible buy entry/short term sell.OANDA:XPDUSD
D1:
- Overbought on both indicators at the 127% - 141% extension from previous swing low --> high
- Fib extension from 1680 (LOW) to 2003 (HIGH) = Current price range @ 121% - 141% (OVERBOUGHT)
- Fib retracement from 1680 (LOW) - 2153 (RECENT SWING HIGH)
- Gives a estimate entry @ 38% fib.
PALLADIUM(15) TL Fib Resistance Doji(D) ABC Into E.A.G.L.E BreakPALLADIUM(15) TL Fib Resistance Doji(D) ABC Into E.A.G.L.E Break into Gartley
Palladium Worth Over $2,000!On 17th December 2019, price made an attempt at breaking the $2,000 major round number and failed.
From that date through to the end of 2019, it was unclear whether Palladium would exceed $2,000.
We prefer to wait for breakouts and avoid trying to guess what price will do next.
On 6th January 2020, price broke and closed above $2,000 creating new historical highs and signalling
strong momentum in this commodity.
If price does continue to rise then we can expect to see deep pullbacks along the way up as this is the
nature of this commodity but this is nothing to worry about.
Pullbacks are just periods of temporary selling and usually scares off the inexperienced traders.
If you are trading and following the trend, then your stops should be kept a distance away from price
to allow these pullbacks to occur without stopping you out prematurely.
We will be following Palladium and will be looking to add more positions to our profitable trades
that are currently still running.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
XPD *short scalp only*Nice daily bearish divergence. Looking for it to form a running flat of some kind and put in a third corrective wave down. This is just a scalp only!!! Long term should see this continue higher, but nice R:R setup from here. GL!
Palladium Near Trend ResistancePalladium has made a strong bullish move in recent months. This may be due to global uncertainty. Palladium is near the top of the rising trend that has formed.
Palladium: Remaining Bullish in 2020 before 2021 ConsolidationPalladium has quietly ran up as much as 65% YTD at one point with a likely 'finish' around +53-54%. In my forecast, I believe Palladium will reach roughly 2400-2500 by the end of 2020 with a more aggressive short coming sometime in Q1 in 2020 (Jan, Feb or March) and one later in the year in Q4 of 2020 (October, November or December).
Production relative to demand remains considerably unmatched and this trend will continue through 2020. Because equities will remain at-least modestly bullish in 2020, there is no reason for the automotive sector to drastically deteriorate, and as such, Palladium demand will remain strong despite random bears trying to say otherwise. Moreover, the strong demand from international markets like China and India will push Palladium higher than most people think in 2020.
The overall 'bull run' of Palladium will end once the price falls BELOW $1650.
Note: The dips may be slightly more aggressive than what I have drawn here, however, the overall prediction, trend and timing remain accurate.
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Palladium Monthly Chart Short After AB=CD=CD Palladium After a big up move get to a very very strong resistance
Price end AB=CD then make another CD leg, now gonna fall
This trade has a very high success rate to Take profit 1
No fundamentals just algorithm.Whilst I'm usually following the news. This time it looks like it's making a correction based on algorithms. Ideas?
Is Palladium tumbling down ?I certainly hope so as selling at this high price to the desired target would yield a great amount of
profits to any traders.
A very bearish candle has just taken place in the 4H chart, let's be patient and see the strength of pull back and then place our sell bet. For all you know, this commodity which has been generating more than 350% return since 2016 (parabolic move) is in need of a serious correction.
watch this like a vulture and not let it off your sight........
