XPDUSDFundamentals:
This trade banks on a net global economic recovery, as palladium is used for industrial output.
Technicals:
D1 uptrend, wedge pattern, with price at support
A great 1:10 risk-reward
PALLADIUM trade ideas
PALLADIUM do not loose focus!we still looking to buy, but for now we not ready to move up. If we get correction will consider to take sell to expose 1769 for bounce there to look for buy setups. Do not loose this buy, just we need patience
"FED-PIG" PLAY - Metal Strangle - Long Palladium, Silver HedgePalladium is one of the most interesting niche long ideas that I've been following for some time. This rare metal has appreciated 3-4x in a very short period of time. That is pretty wild, given that it is a commodity that has always existed on Earth. While there are certainly gov't related supply controls, demand is skyrocketing due to its extremely limited availability and its rare chemical properties used to manufacture vehicles in the aerospace/automobile industries.
In fact, there seems to be some slight correlation between Tesla's share price and palladium's p/oz. Might just be a coincidence though.
In any case, the FED is likely to drop rates in order to keep in line with their efforts to push the market higher. Any sort of dovishness will be bad for everyone, unless you are somehow still holding a short position from 3 months ago. Otherwise, I think these FED minutes will serve as another catalyst and that it actually has not been fully priced in to the equities markets.
However, one way to play this is to strangle commodities to account for an ambiguous reaction to interest rate guidance. All else equal, silver is the obvious pick to short and gold, long. However, I think palladium can benefit more than gold from decreased rates because it is overlooked. Gold may have already priced the best case scenario in already, which is a fair assumption given recent institutional interest.
Thus, one creative play before 2 pm is to long Palladium forward contracts for next month and buy offsetting puts on silver miner ETFs.
Will be a fully fed pig by end of day, that I am sure of.
TVC:PALLADIUM TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER
The shining starMore than three-quarters of palladium ends up in hybrid vehicles and in the catalytic converters used in autos to reduce emissions.
Today, many governments, especially China’s, are tightening regulations to crack down on pollution from vehicles, forcing automakers to increase the amount of the metal they use.
However, supply cannot respond to growing demand, resulting in a global shortage and helping palladium prices to hit successive records.
China, the biggest auto market, announced that all cars manufactured from 2020 will be required to contain around 30 per cent more palladium.
Slowing auto sales in China could threaten the outlook for palladium demand. The threat of EVs could further hurt the demand for palladium and platinum.
Gas & diesel Cars
Used in Catalytic converters - (which doesn't exist in EVs )
(used to remove noxious gases from vehicle exhausts).
Platinum
Palladium
Electric vehicles ( EV )
Lithium
Cobalt
Nickel
The scarcity of Palladium & platinum and its associated metals
poses a significant hurdle for global automakers investing heavily in hydrogen fuel-cell technologies and the adoption of FCEV'S.
Fuel Cell Electric vehicles (Metals required as catalysts for the conversion of reactive gases into electric power.)
Palladium
or
Platinum + ruthenium
or
Palladium + SIlver
Alternative to Palladium CFDs:
ETF: PALL
Stock: NLSY (OTC)
ridethepig | Palladium Market Commentary 2020.06.15Here the consolidation is condemned to break for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. Covid cases will act as the catalyst undoubtedly. The question is only and above all when?
For those tracking the breakout momentum is much more on the buyers side, clearly defined jurisdictions are on both sides of the map... As a quick cheatsheet: Strong Support (1635) <=> Soft Support (1750) <=> Soft Resistance (2300) <=> Strong Resistance (2800).
neutral on palladium palladium is ranging, no bull order power no sharp down spike , so no trade yet
Palladium Take Profit $2300?This has been on the watchlist and now its in my area of interest. See attached...
Top 2 Biggest Industrial Contraction Ever? Methinks YesJust an idea, haven't shorted it. If there's a fundamental reason you think Palladium should be higher, please let me know.
PALLLADIUM is ready to popPrice is coiling inside the asymmetrical triangle. Historically, this pattern is prone to volatility once price reaches the apex. The next two daily candles will put price outside the pattern. If there is continued risk taking and positive market sentiment across all financial markets, then there is increased probability that Palladium will develop a new bullish trend. However, it worth noting that the S&P 500 has traded higher over the last several days/weeks while Palladium has been stuck in a no trend scenario. Pay attention to risk and potential fake outs.
PalladiumLesson 1
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
― Sun tzu, The Art of War
It is in the nature of the market and best interest of the smart money for the market to deceive the majority of market participants into losing their capital. This becomes a double tragedy for the common retail trader who has to contend with the unsavoury practises of Market Making Forex Brokers . Having said that, this Palladium chart illustrates that almost perfectly and I will explain;
We have been looking looking for a drop in this commodity for more than a week (check related ideas) and when it finally drops it decides to do a whiplash (house cleaning) thus frustrating both sellers and buyers (mostly retail traders). This whiplash also served as a stop hunt for flashing out the weak hands who had tight SLs on either sides of the market. Add in the wide spread that characterises Palladium and the typical Broker shenanigans, disaster in the air for retail traders. You will find that it is during such chaotic moves that a majority of short term strategies start to fall apart (which capital lost). What we need is a longterm strategy that allows us to factor in the possibility of such deception, enabling us to not flinch in the face of obvious deception (poker face). It is unwise to doubt your own analysis and keep re-routng your course, at the end you wont even know where you are going or why. It will serve your far better in your trading journey to be thorough in your analysis and resolute in its projections. Even if it turns to a lose, it is an intelligent loss which teaches you better than a dumb win.
Detour: Keep a journal of whatever form that suits your lifestyle, study it like your life depends on it. If you have spent as much time, effort, study and emotional currency as some of us have, you would concur with my previous statement.
We will update the analysis should the price action change, but so far, the sell position stands.
-May this coming trading week be better than your last-
XPDUSD /PALLADIUM OUTLOOK. LONG AND SHORTNO DOUBT PALLADIUM HAD A GOOD YEAR IN 2020 COMPARED TO ITS COUSIN (PLATINUM)
EVIDENTLY REFER TO SILVER CHARTS FOR THIS PALLADIUM FORMATION AS IT UNFOLD.
Palladium Undervalued To Gold & Volaility ExtremePalladium on the weekly is undervalued compared to gold. Volatility is also at extreme point & declining. Expecting a move to upside.
Break Triangle on palladium.Palladium break triangle. Next stop about 1500-1600 USD, in high level support?
Palladium Long IdeaWe should expect the price to break out from resistance to make a strong move upwards. I have based this outcome on the continuation pattern (the falling wedge) that I have marked out.
This is not trading advise. This is for educational purposes only.
If you do decide to trade please risk wisely
Palladium: SellSticll stuck at the same palce buy we should expect a sharp move that continues to the downside. Also note that the fractals(market structure repetitions) highligted in the orange circles.
Palladium: SellPalladium is struggling to break out of the minor trendline and should it fail to break, look to add to the sell position.
Note the fractals in yellow circles.
