ALTSEASON ARRIVAL?? Must read post, Don't skip.!!Pinpointing the exact start of a bull market or altcoin season can be challenging, but there are key indicators to watch for:
1. Bitcoin Dominance-
Decreasing Bitcoin dominance: This suggests investors are shifting their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins which is generally determined by BTC.D.
2. Altcoin Performance-
Outperformance of altcoins: If altcoins start to significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation, it could be an early sign of altcoin season. This is generally determined by OTHERS.D.
So, let me give you detailed explanation on Altcoin performance by analysing OTHERS.D chart as it is not possible to go through both in a single post.
OTHERS.D represents the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10 by market capitalization. Essentially, it's a measure of the dominance of altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and the top 9) in the overall crypto market.
Why is it important?
Altcoin Season Indicator: A rising OTHERS.D often correlates with an altcoin season, indicating a shift of investor interest from Bitcoin to smaller cryptocurrencies.
Market Sentiment: The chart can provide insights into the overall market sentiment towards altcoins. A rising others.d value indicates that money is flowing into altcoins, potentially signaling an altcoin season or increased interest in alternative cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a falling others.d value suggests that Bitcoin is gaining dominance over altcoins.
Technical analysis:
OTHERS.D chart is trading between this channel since mid 2017. The movements within this channel have marked two significant altseasons. Currently, the level is touching the bottom of this channel which generally indicates the arrival of altseason.
Trend Analysis:
This chart includes three color-coded vertical lines and three distinct phases:
Vertical Lines:
Bold Blue Vertical Lines- Represent BTC halving dates.
Green Vertical Lines- Indicate the arrival of the altseason and the end of the bear market.
Red Vertical Lines- Signify the arrival of the bear market.
Phases:
Accumulation Phase
Altseason Phase
Bear Market Phase
Observations:
Post-Halving Trend: Following each BTC halving (marked by blue lines), there is a downtrend in alts dominance until a green line, signaling the start of the Altseason Phase.
Altseason Phase: During this phase, the dominance moves to the top of the channel, forming a double top that confirms a downtrend.
Bear Market Phase: Represented by red lines, indicating the arrival of a bear market. During this phase, the dominance drops to the bottom of the channel, retesting the 100 MA. The end of this phase is marked by a green line.
Current Situation:
We have recently experienced the fourth BTC halving and are currently near the bottom of the channel, indicating the search for the green line and the impending arrival of the Altseason Phase.
Summary:
The historical pattern shows that after each BTC halving, there is a downtrend in alts dominance followed by an altseason marked by a green line, then a bear market phase marked by a red line. This cycle has repeated historically. Presently, after the fourth BTC halving, we are close to the bottom of the channel, suggesting the upcoming Altseason Phase.
Thanks for reading the post patiently.
Happy trading!!