Overview
Ideas
USB10YUSD trade ideas
USD Index and Yields 10-Year bond has been outperforming shorter term 2-year note for the past few months(precisely since march 13). The candlestick graph represent the 10-year bonds/2-year notes
Bond price are the inverse of yield. So As the bonds rises, yields fall. So, the recent outperformance of 10-year bonds suggests that longer term interest rates are outperforming shorter term interest rates.
Under normal conditions, there is a a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and the 10-yr bond/2-yr bond ratio. The chart shows this clearly, at least for the past year.
The red line is the inverse of USD index. I did draw the inverse so that chart will look clearer.
The recent rise in the ratio between these bonds has been accompanied with a drop in the U.S. dollar index, however, the ratio may have reached key resistance area near the falling trend line for the main bear trend. In addition to that, it has corrected 50-percent of the while bear trend.
If we look at the bigger picture, on the weekly chart the ratio is testing a previously broken long term rising trend lines.
That could be a warning that we might be - at least- at a near term top in the ratio, and accordingly, a bottom in the U.S. dollar.
My regards,
Technician
LONG 10 YR T NOTE..Hey fellow traders
I haven't posted much lately. Not that i am not trading but I wasn't seeing any setups in my trading portfolio. Summer is here and these months are usually low liquidity months. There is a set up coming up in 10yr T note.
Weekly:
Macd is crossed up and we have price testing Tenkan sen right now which is acting as support. Can this be a higher low? Kijun is pointing down and we have to watch that for res level.
Daily:
Price broke Kijun sen and found supp at 50 per fib. It is still above cloud. We closed above Counter trendline. Immediate resistance is 126 . Once that breaks, we can see some acceleration.
Keep in mind, monthly is bearish chart and this is a Counter trend move. I expect a breakdown in coming months. I will be looking at 4h for potential trading opportunities. Use appropriate position sizing.
Will post some other ideas later if something develops.
Critical Point Gold/silverWe are in a critical point for gold and silver, tomorrow or Friday (NFP) we will have a clearer picture.
I believe the resistance will hold. If that's the case, gold and silver will go down. I think silver will be more rewarding among the 2.
Pay close attention to the 10Y behavior before taking any position.
Will update when we have a clear direction.
High proba short with good R/RIf it goes into resistance, it is unlikely it can break it with the coming rate hikes.
US 10 YEAR SHORT - Normal correction, bearish bias intactBond yields are moving in accordance with changes in term premia.
A normal mean-reversion of term premium on the 10 year Treasury should maintain bearish bias.
After the sharp sell-off in bonds with little-to-no retracement, a correction was to be expected.
Thus, bond prices are moving as expected.
