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XOM trade ideas

XOM Short Idea - Rising COVID Cases, Energy Industry Big PictureI believe that the market was being overly optimistic with the Pfizer vaccine news. Crude Oil futures had a similar move with the news. I think the fundamentals for oil companies hasn't changed and that things will only continue to get worse with the rising COVID cases. On a big picture level, investors can see that alternative sources of energy are becoming more realistic and are going to be the future. On Friday after close, President Trump held a press conference for Operation Warp Speed, giving positive news about the vaccine efforts. With this, we could see another similar pump to the Pfizer vaccine news on Monday. If this happens I will wait to see this forming a downtrend before entering my position. I also think the Joe Biden win could weaken oil stocks more, especially considering his discussions on phasing out oil and moving towards renewable energy. If Trump somehow pulls off the court cases and comes back for a second term, we could see Oil stocks pump again. So those court cases and recounts are a risk of this trade. This stock is near a key level. On the monthly chart, 30 has been the last support level since July 2002. It has shown support there in October 2008, July 2010 and recently in March 2020 during the COVID flash crash. On the daily chart, there has been an increased amount of buyers recently around late October/early November when it hit this level - showing that many traders see this as a key level. Looking at the monthly chart, there aren't any other key pivot points tested as much as this 30 level. Maybe roughly 28, 25 and 20 - but these are just rough guesses based on this chart. I need to take a deeper look into the weekly and daily to see key long term points. I have highlighted a few rough points where price has held in the short term. The lowest I think this can go is 30 because it's been shown that buyers meet at this level. If COVID cases rising causes more shutdowns, this stock could break that level. I think this could be possible because many investors/traders may see COVID shutdowns hurting the company even more in the short term. In the long term, investors may have a negative view on oil companies, especially with the recent boom in alternative energy stocks. I think if it breaks this 30 level, there will be many traders panic selling because they see 30 as a very important level. My main trade idea is to short it down to 30 at the most if it shows signs of a continuation. Hold off on entering if Monday pumps a bit based on the Friday vaccine press conference. If it shows weakness at 30, I may enter another short position.
NYSE:XOMShort
by RS_Trades
XOM . Long opportunity I noticed while hunting for stat arb pairs that XOM and XLE (Energy etf ) are very very closely paired . They pass a co-integration test at 99% and are correlated at 88%. In-fact, they are so closely paired that they can not be profitably traded as a pair as the average convergence and divergence between them is too close and the spread is simply not profitable on my back testing. However, we can still use this to our advantage. Although they do not make a good stat arb pair , we do know that if the energy etf (XLF) goes one direction , so does XOM . Based on this , I think that at the current share price, this is a very good longer term hold . Ignore everything to do with who wins the election and simply bet on a future reversal of XLF, which will happen ... eventually :) At the time of writing , XOM is actually trading below it's book value ($41.54) Also, next years estimates call for a 415% increase in EPS, not to mention it comes with a 10.62% dividend . This is a good long , at a discount, patience likely required . XLE is shown in orange and XOM is shown in blue ;) Good luck ~
NYSE:XOMLong
by NAK1987
1
XOM - 9:1 or another drop?Fellow traders please manage your risk, i will never risk more than 1% of my capital on a trade and i seriously urge you do to the same! I watched Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM very carefully in the past few days and spotted a possible entry. The structure of the last few days looks like a Wave 1-2-3-4 and we already corrected to the 0.5 retracement. Because of the risk/reward of 9.0 i just opened a long position, beware that this is a risky move and i normally don't trade in this short timeframe. I am trading with a guaranteed stop loss order (GSL), if the price should drop heavily in the pre-market session. Primary scenario: Likelyhood 55% We are forming a solid 3-4 setup and are setting us up for Wave 5 which will bring us to 35$. Alternative scenario: Likelyhood 45% My alternative scenario will get triggered if we break the previous high of wave 1 @31.13$. A further drop of about 10% will be very likely and the future of XOM remains uncertain. =================================================================================================================== If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact me.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Mendenmein-Capital
4
Exxon Mobil The Idea is to hold - wait the end of the bearish trend before going long. The breakout of the Trendline gives a signal of strength, but it is still to early to go long. Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Exxon lost 18 cents per share for the third quarter, smaller than the 25 cents a share loss that analysts were expecting. Revenue came in above analysts’ forecasts. Exxon is also planning smaller capital expenditures for 2021, to $16 billion to $19 billion, from $23 billion this year.
NYSE:XOM
by Mauriello
XOM - Walk the plankThe american oil industry is on the verge of collapse, at least when we look at Exxon Mobil ... NYSE:XOM I have great interest in the american oil industry companies such as Exxon Mobil or Chevron, both have made enormous losses since Covid-19 hit the world. Both Stocks are extremely cheap right now and are possibly setting up for a +100% rallye , at least if we don't break the previous lows. In the last days i spent several hours looking at the chart and price action of Exxon Mobil , i came to the conclusion that we have formed a very big 1-2 Setup. Primary scenario: Likelyhood 55% We are forming a solid 1-2 setup and are setting us up for a 30% rallye to the price target of green wave 1. Alternative scenario: Likelyhood 45% My alternative scenario will get triggered if we break the previous low @32.21$, Exxon Mobil will get slaughtered again. A drop of 15%-20% is very likely and will crush many bullish expectations. Beware that i don't have any open long positions, i will wait for a solid bullish impulse and then announce my entries! =================================================================================================================== If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact me.
NYSE:XOM
by Mendenmein-Capital
9