$MA Mastercard - Bearish break of uptrend line$MA Mastercard - Bearish break of uptrend line with successful retest. As well as possible head and shoulders forming. Earnings upcoming 05/02.
MA trade ideas
MA: Parabolic price action & valuations = Massive ShortWhen I see parabolic price action like Mastercard's weekly chart, I start thinking on how to structure a short because we all know parabolic price action always always ends in tears. It does help that MA is trading at....3.5x of its average 13-years P/B and has a...-0.25% real earnings yield (adjusted for US 10 T-bond). With MA implied vol trading at an elevated 34 and a nice skew, one can structure a July -5/-15 put spread for c.1.6% with a max c.4x payout if MA hits the min price target of $144 (being the weekly 38.2% retracement). I am most probably too early on this call with my short term tactical view being positive as we head into earnings season (MA reports 2 May'18) but...it is either you get the high vol or a better entry price. Either way, I would like to get some optionality into the books.
GO LONG MASTERCARD!Bullish breakout of bull flag on hourly chart. Resuming uptrend from here. Targets: $172, $176 and $184!
MA Short & Market ComparisonGiven the recent small rise in cryptocurrencies, as well as less reliance on credit, MA seems to be a short holding strategy for the year to come. This month in general because of policy changes and competition, have been non profitable. However, the yield is at 0.66%, and a 0.11% expected return average the next few days. Mastercard as a company though is investible stock wise for some returns, but won't be as investible for an entirely long term holding. This is even given its past "bullfrog" breakout. Overall, I would keep it for a short time period but would consider it as volatile for an extremely long term holding.
MASTERCARD (MA)The Current stock price is above both the 150 day and 200 day moving average.
The 200 day moving avg line is trending up (for at least one month)since October
The Current stock price is trading above the 50 day moving average.
The current stock price is at least 30 percent above its 52 week low. (appox 40% above it's 52 week low)
The current price is 95% of it's new high.
Credit Suisse
Rating since 10/12/09 OUtperform
TheStreet
Rating since 07/31/09 BuY
Ford Equity Research
Rating since 12/01/17 Strongbuy
MarketEdge
Rating since 12/01/17 Long
CROW Code Eyes 170/172 Bearish EntrenchmentCROW Code Eyes 170/172 Bearish Entrenchment
* Keep *
Watch for 0.618-Fib retracement (pink arrow) lining up with Elliott Wave's 4th wave target
Momental Lines in force.
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster
WARNING $MADoes this classify as selling?
bought some puts $147 Nov24 slightly out of the money with a 37% Delta low Volatility 17% BUT IS OK Market is to hot, even though $PYPL, $V, $SQ, and others are hot.
Mastercard just keeping an eye on this. some MACD divergence (D) after earnings.
Looking for a retest of highs and a break of 20MA
MA BULL FLAg: LONGMastercard has entered into a flag pattern in the last couple of weeks and is finally breaking out today. Measured move is $128.41 (to the penny) with a stop loss at 124.07. Let me know what you guys think!
Mastercard Always Drops When This HappensMastercard has been in a bull trend since 2013. On five occasions through this bull, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at the same or higher levels than they are now. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may dip while it most likely continues its overall bull trend.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76.2216. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is oversold.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3193 and the negative is at 0.5613. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative values are currently at extreme levels which the stock always retreats.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 95.5822 and D value is 96.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought. The D value just crossed above the K value meaning the stock is most likely beginning its descent.
Since the current long-term bull began in 2013, there have been five times when the RSI and the positive VI were at or above their current close while the stochastic was also overbought. These occasions led to a drop in the stock. The median drop occurs over 10 trading days and results in a 5.97% loss. The minimum drop on these occasions was 3.19%.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 3% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
MA Simple setupHere is a simple setup made up of a single Support line and an up trend line. Also, you can see that MA is making a new high, so we might have a long opportunity here. but if you zoom in on the chart, there are more bearish candles. I am not doing anything yet to make sure that the stock does not go into a downtrend.
Trade with care!
MasterCard Earnings Today 5/2/17Per 1 day MA chart, all appears to be going bears for rest of week. PA is at all time highs & RSI indicator is overbought too. Will be looking selling put options to take advantage of premium and drop in price. Good Luck in trading.
