M trade ideas
MACY"S M " Bull Trap" Bearish "Island Reversal" !Macy's M It's not often that you see a stock breakout to the Upside on the Daily Chart
and then follow that up the following day,with a Breakaway Gap "Island Reversal" to the Downside
Macy's fell 16 % today, on 45 Mil Shares,large institutional share liquidation
even though they beat consensus earnings today 8/15/18 Ouch.
I point this out simply to remind those who may feel different, that the stock market IS very risky investment/trade,
even if you have correctly followed current technical trend and chart pattern.
THE_UNWIND
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS, TWTR, X, EWZThe only volatility contraction earnings play I'm looking at for this coming week is in Macy's, which announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, since it has the implied volatility rank and 30-day metrics I'm looking for (76/56).
Here are some Macy's preliminary setups, with the short strangles set up around the 20 delta strikes:
August 17th 36/44 short strangle, 1.21 credit at the mid, break evens at 34.79/45.21.
September 21st 35/46 short strangle, 1.60 credit at the mid, 33.40/47.60 break evens. (The reason why I'd go with this one over the August is that there isn't much time to manage the August setup if it goes awry).
September 21st 40 short straddle, 5.42 credit at the mid, 34.58/45.42 break evens
Other underlyings with earnings in the rear view/exchange-traded funds:
TSLA (rank 61/30-day 66). I am unsure of whether I will touch this underlying any longer given private equity discussions. These can ruin an options trade if they go through, as well as ruin one if they don't. (See, RAD, like, more than once ... ).
TWTR. The rank isn't great, but there is still some background implied to mine there (41.7%). The Sept 21st 29/36 short strangle is paying 1.06, which isn't shabby for a 32 clam underlying.
X. With a 30-day at 41.4%, the September 21st 27/34's paying .87, the 30 short straddle, 3.06.
EWZ. I've been short straddling this high implied exchange-traded fund, but the 30/38's paying .82 in the Sept cycle if you just can't stand the kind of skewing out the short straddle enjoys every other day with this one ... .
Other Major Food Groups:
TLT: Waiting for 122.50-ish for another bearish assumption setup.
M - 08/12Waiting on Earnings (08/15), has been an awesome Dividend play if you picked it up lower down.
M Short Position Munoz Here with a Short Postition trade based on previous resistance top line and Gap Fill.
$M 18 AUG 17 C43 at .42 Breakout from bull flag consolidation looks to have M ready to return to resistance just over 45 area in my opinion. GLTA
M Bullish pennant M closed above 20 SMA today and broke through the bullish pennant. TSI bounced off 0 looking to cross. Going long.
Macy's Breaking out of the Handle of a Long Term C&H?Looking back to the gap down at the beginning of 2017, M is showing a break out from the daily bull flag that started to take shape in June.
Not saying anything about the death of retail, but this looks ready to run up, especially with earnings on 8/15
M long soonM looks like a nice descending wedge setup. EMA 3 crossed over the EMA 8 today. Bullish there and with my Modified MACD
Macy's :( :( :(I barely post stock analysis in here, but I''ll open a short position on $M today.
Here's my reason:
I went to Macy's today trying to buy a new pair of sneakers, then I found a pair of shoes that I love and I told the sales lady to hold it for me coz I want to see some other stuff(that's the last pair on that shelf). Just couple minutes later, I came back to that lady and that sales lady told me she sold that shoes to another customer.
and I was like: Arghhhhh.........Are.....you.....kidding.....me.....?! (me no happy face)
I was pissed and now I decide to open a short position on macy's
Target price: I dunno, probably trying to make $70?, which is the price for that sneakers.
Stop Loss: umm....not going to put one
:(
M Bear Call SpreadWait for price to get in or near the zone. Sell the August 45-50 bear call spread. Minimum premium for spread – 0.50.
IV is low but there is sufficient premium for this strategy. We expect the supply zone to hold price below the short strike.
Close if stop is met based on stock price. Close any short units for 0.05 or spreads for 0.10. If the premium falls to half of the credit received within the first week trade may be closed early. Depending on price action, profits may be taken early.
$M - Might be a good time to buy? Just guessing Even after the earnings beat I wasn't really big on the retail sector as a whole. Seeing a change in regime across large cap retailers like $TGT or $WMT where the growth & value seems like it's shifting towards the more overlooked tickers like $KSS, $M, ($JCP still getting beaten but I'll keep on watch just in case). Price crossing below 3 year (low) WMA was the start of a 3 & a half year, -70% run down. Seeing a change in regime like this would be exciting for any retail / consumer discretion contrarian. Contrarian or not though - Long.
M daily short - weekly longM on daily appears to be overextended based on high RSI (70.5) however we recently have seen it as high as 79 - weekly actually paints a strong bullish picture so possibly light retracement or just accumulation - will post follow up weekly chart
M - Successful Bullish Prediction. Take Profit?Yesterday I posted a bullish candlestick setup that had formed on the daily chart. You can see that analysis here Earnings were released pre-market and price shot up over 10% in line with our bullish prediction. The next major resistance area is 32.30. The question now is whether to let it run for further profit on a breakout of 32.30, or take profit on an anticipate pullback from this key resistance level.
M Long posiionI missed the pin bar on 5/10
but this is still a good afew dollars move.
I got in yesterday at the money right now
Bullish pin off of a key support trend line w/ increased volumeThis is a nice setup on the daily chart where a large bullish pin candle formed off of a major trend line support and a minor trend line support. As an added bonus there was an increase of volume in the pin showing buying volume as buyers defended the price level.
